Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[brg444]

PS. About MMM's  Bitcoin Ponzi, a perturbing factor is what MMM will do with the bitcoins that it collects. 

(Ostensibly, the victims send bitcoins directly to each other, and MMM does not touch the bitcoins and does not take commission.  However, it is a safe bet that many of the people asking for donations are actually MMM bosses.)

I doubt that he will want to keep bitcoins for long.  So, after the ponzi collapses, the price may eventually return to the $220 level.

 

Still entertaining the MMM boogeyman?

I thought we had put this to bed once and for all. Considering the volume of the last few weeks it seems pretty clear that their role in last month's rally was quite exagerated and marginal at best.

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[Richy_T]

Since nobody seems to know how many Bitcoins Gox actually had, it's still possible that instead of pumping, Gox might instead have had a negative effect on the market by selling more coins than they owned (shorting).  Yea, they're buying and selling with customer funds, but that doesn't mean they're pumping if they have 600k coins in liability on the books and only had 200k coins.  They would be naked shorting like Blythe Masters and silver.  I haven't really seen any good summary of Gox liabilities vs assets over time, but if there's always more liabilities than assets, they're doing internal naked shorts!

Oh, almost certainly Gox weren't pumping. They got in the mess they were because the price went up and they didn't have the coins that were on their books. A rising price thus meant that they were getting dug deeper and deeper in the hole.

The reason the price was going up (absent any Willy bot type input) was because they had frozen fiat withdrawals. The only way to get anything out of Gox (pre-total-collapse) was with bitcoins. Thus anyone with an ounce of sense was trying to buy bitcoins before the price went up more and before it all went south, further putting Gox in the hole.

The Gox rise was not natural exuberance (though that also played into it) but simply the largest exchange imploding spectacularly. What should the price had been? Who knows. I suspect we would not have touched 1k for a good while if Gox was running an honest ship.

[JorgeStolfi]

The big surge in volume is in the Chinese exchanges, especially Huobi and OKCoin.  

This is wrong.  Bitfinex was leading price the majority of the time in the rise.  This is not a China pump, China just also wants to go up.

The pattern of volume at Bitfinex over the last year is similar to that of Bitstamp.  Namely, the volume during the "sub-rally" of the last 2-3 days is above average, but still much less than the peak of early Novermber, and comparable to the volume seen several times during 2015.. 

Two years ago today when we crossed into 1k territory. Unfortunately, as we were later to find out, that was 1k GoxBux

Since nobody seems to know how many Bitcoins Gox actually had, it's still possible that instead of pumping, Gox might instead have had a negative effect on the market by selling more coins than they owned (shorting). [ ... ]  In other words, nobody knows what the hell kind of influence Gox had on the market.

My theory is that new demand in mainland China created the Oct-Nov/2013 rally, and perhaps also the Mar-Apr/2013 one. The prices in China were clearly higher than the "Western" prices during the rally, and lower during Dec/2013 crash.  In my theory, Willy's operator was doing arbitrage: buying coins from Gox clients with non-existent dollars, and selling them for real yuan at some Chinese exchange(s).  I think that it is possible that the yuan (worth perhaps 0.5 G USD) were confiscated by China's central bank after the Dec/2013 decree that closed the bank accounts of all Chinese exchanges.

[Meuh6879]

As a HODLER and a believer in the Bitcoin ecosystem...I have continuously bought a couple coins here and there if and only if it brought my average down. This has proven to be a profitable strategy.

+1 ... and it's because Bitcoin contain my Life Economies, too.
so i buy regulary ... or i sell when needed.

i have started in december 2013.

like my old bank account.
but nothing can freeze my money or restrict me to the SAFE BANK limits (cashless society).

[JorgeStolfi]

Still entertaining the MMM boogeyman?

I thought we had put this to bed once and for all.

In your mind, perhaps.  I have not seen a better explanation, or a reason to exclude it as the cause.  IIRC, the CEOs of both OKCoin and BTC-China thought so too.

Considering the volume of the last few weeks it seems pretty clear that their role in last month's rally was quite exagerated and marginal at best.

AFAIK the ponzi is still going on.  The rally to $500 in early November was magnified by speculation (traders all over the world buying more BTC because they saw the price rising), but probably half of the rise (from $220 to ~$330) could well be due to the ˜fresh" demand created by the MMM ponzi and its copycats in China. It definitely attracted many Chinese citizens who had no interest in bitcoin until then.

[JayJuanGee]

The big surge in volume is in the Chinese exchanges, especially Huobi and OKCoin.  

This is wrong.  Bitfinex was leading price the majority of the time in the rise.  This is not a China pump, China just also wants to go up.

The pattern of volume at Bitfinex over the last year is similar to that of Bitstamp.  Namely, the volume during the "sub-rally" of the last 2-3 days is above average, but still much less than the peak of early Novermber, and comparable to the volume seen several times during 2015.. 

You don't really seem to give up with your coming up with various FUD offerings.

In this case you seem to making a broad general statement without contextualizing specifics.  What the fuck matters regarding some alleged similar volume pattern when for one, they are two years removed from each other.. and bitfinex allows some creative low fee arrangements and bitfinex also allows quite a variety of marginal betting... which in the end becomes a BIG ... SO WhAT?   Apples and Oranges.

Two years ago today when we crossed into 1k territory. Unfortunately, as we were later to find out, that was 1k GoxBux

Since nobody seems to know how many Bitcoins Gox actually had, it's still possible that instead of pumping, Gox might instead have had a negative effect on the market by selling more coins than they owned (shorting). [ ... ]  In other words, nobody knows what the hell kind of influence Gox had on the market.

My theory is that new demand in mainland China created the Oct-Nov/2013 rally, and perhaps also the Mar-Apr/2013 one. The prices in China were clearly higher than the "Western" prices during the rally, and lower during Dec/2013 crash.  In my theory, Willy's operator was doing arbitrage: buying coins from Gox clients with non-existent dollars, and selling them for real yuan at some Chinese exchange(s).  I think that it is possible that the yuan (worth perhaps 0.5 G USD) were confiscated by China's central bank after the Dec/2013 decree that closed the bank accounts of all Chinese exchanges.

Your theory would be a whole hell-of-a lot more interesting if you were invested in a material way in Bitcoin, one way or another, rather than contributing with your supposed detached analysis. 

For the sake of mustering some form of credibility - rather than arm chair quarterbacking the situation, Go buy or sell a bitcoin, then likely many of us would take more interested in your  "theories."

[JorgeStolfi]

If Black Friday was responsible for the "sub-rally" of the last 2-3 days, perhaps it is because of this offer from PrimeDice? 

Deposit at least 1 BTC and receive 1 BTC for FREE

How could this be for real?  Could they be planning an exit scam?

[peonminer]

If Black Friday was responsible for the "sub-rally" of the last 2-3 days, perhaps it is because of this offer from PrimeDice?  

Deposit at least 1 BTC and receive 1 BTC for FREE

How could this be for real?  Could they be planning an exit scam?

Gambling sites always have these promos. Read the fine print.


Bitcoin be like

[mixan]

price going to dump soon

It is happening already and I thought it would be soon the trading day for it to go down. Was $357 last I checked around ten minutes ago thought it broke 360 barely two hours ago. Up to $366 and down to almost $10 is not very promising end of the month tally.

Yes, we are crashing uncontrollably. Except...we aren't.

Zoom out a little bit on your charts and stop trying to be cute with little moves. Look at the pattern, not the pattern within the pattern, within the pattern.

These little movements make me quiver because it makes my intuition say "buy or sell".
Just that little up tick in the price makes the inner wolf in me want to howl at the moon and want to sell.

[ChartBuddy]

Coin



Explanation

[JayJuanGee]

like my old bank account.
but nothing can freeze my money or restrict me to the SAFE BANK limits (cashless society).

Lessee... You've lost ~2/3 of your money by hodling for two years.
Yup. Money in the bank fared a bit better :-

You have quite a few assumptions in your accusation. 

First of all, he started in December 2013... and even if his strategy was primarily holding what he bought, it is quite presumptuous to assume that he is 2/3 in the hole at the moment.  Furthermore, if he has not cashed out yet, he has not locked in any loss pertaining to aspects of his portfolio still being held. 

Frequently it is forgotten, overlooked or even under credited that a part of any alternative investment serves as a hedge, whether its value goes up or down, that hedge was in place for the past couple of years.

[HI-TEC99]

If Black Friday was responsible for the "sub-rally" of the last 2-3 days, perhaps it is because of this offer from PrimeDice?  

Deposit at least 1 BTC and receive 1 BTC for FREE

How could this be for real?  Could they be planning an exit scam?

It's a scam site, not the real primedice.

Bitcoinblackfriday.info is trying to scam people by posting links to fake sites with incredible offers. The links look almost like the real versions, but they have slight differences. There are scam site links mixed together with legit site links to make the scam ones harder to spot.

Theymos has posted a warning about the bitcoinblackfriday.info scam in one of the bitcointalk advertising banners.

I didn't follow their announcements etc. so I don't know much about them. But just by looking at 5 of their top 8 ads:



deals.bitcoinblackfriday.info/offer/primedice-deposit-at-least-1-btc-and-receive-1-btc-for-free/
links to primedice.io instead of https://primedice.com

deals.bitcoinblackfriday.info/offer/trezor-the-hardware-bitcoin-wallet/
links to buy-trezor.com instead of http://buytrezor.com

deals.bitcoinblackfriday.info/offer/spondoolies-tech-sp50/
links to sqondoolies-tech.com instead of http://www.spondoolies-tech.com

deals.bitcoinblackfriday.info/offer/gyft-25-discount-for-all-gift-cards/
links to appgyft.com instead of https://app.gyft.com


Obvious scam is obvious.


Owner at forums: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=525055

[brg444]

AFAIK the ponzi is still going on.

Right, and has been for the last couple of weeks yet no sign (except for the last couple days) of the volume that was previously credited to it.

[TReano]

anybody with an epic 20x long on quarterlies here not able to sleep because he can't count the money he is making? 

[mixan]

If Black Friday was responsible for the "sub-rally" of the last 2-3 days, perhaps it is because of this offer from PrimeDice?  

Deposit at least 1 BTC and receive 1 BTC for FREE

How could this be for real?  Could they be planning an exit scam?

It's a scam site, not the real primedice.
Bitcoinblackfriday.info is trying to scam people by posting links to fake sites with incredible offers. The links look almost like the real versions, but they have slight differences. There are scam site links mixed together with legit site links to make the cam ones harder to spot.

Theymos has posted a warning about the bitcoinblackfriday.info scam in one of the bitcointalk advertising banners.

I didn't follow their announcements etc. so I don't know much about them. But just by looking at 5 of their top 8 ads:
deals.bitcoinblackfriday.info/offer/primedice-deposit-at-least-1-btc-and-receive-1-btc-for-free/
links to primedice.io instead of https://primedice.com

deals.bitcoinblackfriday.info/offer/trezor-the-hardware-bitcoin-wallet/
links to buy-trezor.com instead of http://buytrezor.com

deals.bitcoinblackfriday.info/offer/spondoolies-tech-sp50/
links to sqondoolies-tech.com instead of http://www.spondoolies-tech.com

deals.bitcoinblackfriday.info/offer/gyft-25-discount-for-all-gift-cards/
links to appgyft.com instead of https://app.gyft.com
Obvious scam is obvious.
Owner at forums: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=525055
And promoted by ~50 ppl in his signature campaign, well done guys.
edit: seems like they also have 1 ad on this forum...

It has been put up who was running the signature campaign for that site, it was an alternate account of the admin of that bitcoinblackfriday.info site:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1266987.0

and the accused:

http://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1267751.0

facts are still rolling in from Luptin that was contacted by admin of that site.

[JorgeStolfi]

The pattern of volume at Bitfinex over the last year is similar to that of Bitstamp.  Namely, the volume during the "sub-rally" of the last 2-3 days is above average, but still much less than the peak of early Novermber, and comparable to the volume seen several times during 2015.. 

What the fuck matters regarding some alleged similar volume pattern when for one, they are two years removed from each other.. and bitfinex allows some creative low fee arrangements and bitfinex also allows quite a variety of marginal betting... which in the end becomes a BIG ... SO WhAT?   Apples and Oranges.

Sorry, I am talking about 2015 exclusively there; "November" is Nov/2015 not Nov/2013.

My proposal is that the rise from $220 to the almost-stable $330 level in the last 3 months was due to the MMM ponzi and copycats in China. It was definitely pulled by OKCoin and Huobi, who saw a huge increase in daily trade volume (10x their records before Sep/2015, including the levels during the Nov/2013 rally). Whereas Bitstamp and Bitfinex saw a much more modest increase in volume, that barely reached the levels seen in several previous occasions (such as Jul/2015 and Feb/2015).

As for the mini-rally of the last 3 days, from $320 to $360, I don't think that it can be explained by Bitcoin Black Friday sales (unless it was the PrimeDice offer above).  BBF 2014 had no influence on the price, and this one seems to have been a flop.

If bitcoiners are expecting the price to go up further, they should buy and hold rather than buy to spend, even with "20% off" offers.  Only early adopters who bought well below the current $350 price may think that it is a good time to take profits.  So BBF may actually have a negative effect on the price...

[shorts will be homeless]

If Black Friday was responsible for the "sub-rally" of the last 2-3 days, perhaps it is because of this offer from PrimeDice? 

Deposit at least 1 BTC and receive 1 BTC for FREE

How could this be for real?  Could they be planning an exit scam?

such a dumb fud attempt, lol. anyone with any basic knowledge of gambling site promos understands what a rollover requirement is for a bonus. you have to bet the amount deposited many many times over before you are eligible for the bonus. ive seen rollover requirements of 200 times the deposit. on average the house will still make money with most bettors going busto before a bonus is claimed. plus they have a new customer. its sad you arent smart enough to do anything better with your time than make up fud any dimwit can see right through. what kind of loser spends all his time making up bogus theories about something he hates cuz he is butthurt about his native countries currency inflating into toilet paper. bitcoin is going up cuz it deflationary in a world of inflationary currencies. get used to it. you wouldnt be such a miserable old loser if you didnt spend your time like one on this forum.

[Meuh6879]

Lessee... You've lost ~2/3 of your money by hodling for two years.
Yup. Money in the bank fared a bit better :-

2 years ? Only ... not a bad thing for a little experience.

you don't see the path ... like me (and the mathematic degression of supply) and the value of this technology to build more trusted economy at local level.

[JorgeStolfi]

You don't really seem to give up with your coming up with various FUD offerings.

Why FUD?  I think that the MMM ponzi could lift the price to $1200 and beyond (or not). Otherwise, I don't see where else you are going to find enough fresh demand for bitcoins to do that.

Your theory would be a whole hell-of-a lot more interesting if you were invested in a material way in Bitcoin, one way or another, rather than contributing with your supposed detached analysis. 

One does not need to stand in the rain to be a competent meteorlogist. 

[JorgeStolfi]

If Black Friday was responsible for the "sub-rally" of the last 2-3 days, perhaps it is because of this offer from PrimeDice?  

Deposit at least 1 BTC and receive 1 BTC for FREE

How could this be for real?  Could they be planning an exit scam?

It's a scam site, not the real primedice.

Bitcoinblackfriday.info is trying to scam people by posting links to fake sites with incredible offers. The links look almost like the real versions, but they have slight differences. There are scam site links mixed together with legit site links to make the scam ones harder to spot.

Theymos has posted a warning about the bitcoinblackfriday.info scam in one of the bitcointalk advertising banners.

I didn't follow their announcements etc. so I don't know much about them. But just by looking at 5 of their top 8 ads:

deals.bitcoinblackfriday.info/offer/primedice-deposit-at-least-1-btc-and-receive-1-btc-for-free/
links to primedice.io instead of https://primedice.com

deals.bitcoinblackfriday.info/offer/trezor-the-hardware-bitcoin-wallet/
links to buy-trezor.com instead of http://buytrezor.com

deals.bitcoinblackfriday.info/offer/spondoolies-tech-sp50/
links to sqondoolies-tech.com instead of http://www.spondoolies-tech.com

deals.bitcoinblackfriday.info/offer/gyft-25-discount-for-all-gift-cards/
links to appgyft.com instead of https://app.gyft.com

Obvious scam is obvious.

Owner at forums: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=525055

Thanks!