Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[nicked]

Follow the weekly Bitstamp chart. If it closes green for 6 times in a row, we are on bubble territory (currently 4 consecutive weekly greens). If we instead end this week in red, there is nothing to worry.

IF we get 6 greens, this means we can go on for a long time still but watch for a blowoff top and trade accordingly.

The methodology worked perfect in the latest 500 spike, and you can easily check a very good match with all previous bubbles as well.

First TERA and now Risto- we're getting the band back together!

no better indicator of a bull market than old-timers becoming active again

Hold on there, Pardner.  Don't confuse cause and effect. All that means is the price is higher.  The bull market isn't really back until the ATH is topped.  That won't happen without a scaling fix because long before we get to four digits, we'll slam into the 1MB blocksize limit. 

When the blocks are totally full, the fees could go up 100X what they are now because there is only enough capacity for ~600,000 transactions per day.  That's it, no matter how high the fees go, there won't be enough capacity for each of us to have even one xation/day each. NO MATTER HOW HIGH THE FEES GO.

You don't wait until the snow starts falling before you start chopping firewood. It's coming.

Maybe the chiming of old timer voices is just the sound of Bitcoins death knell?

[1714761405]

1714761405

[Cconvert2G36]

Follow the weekly Bitstamp chart. If it closes green for 6 times in a row, we are on bubble territory (currently 4 consecutive weekly greens). If we instead end this week in red, there is nothing to worry.

IF we get 6 greens, this means we can go on for a long time still but watch for a blowoff top and trade accordingly.

The methodology worked perfect in the latest 500 spike, and you can easily check a very good match with all previous bubbles as well.

First TERA and now Risto- we're getting the band back together!

no better indicator of a bull market than old-timers becoming active again

Hold on there, Pardner.  Don't confuse cause and effect. All that means is the price is higher.  The bull market isn't really back until the ATH is topped.  That won't happen without a scaling fix because long before we get to four digits, we'll slam into the 1MB blocksize limit. 

When the blocks are totally full, the fees could go up 100X what they are now because there is only enough capacity for ~600,000 transactions per day.  That's it, no matter how high the fees go, there won't be enough capacity for each of us to have even one xation/day each. NO MATTER HOW HIGH THE FEES GO.

You don't wait until the snow starts falling before you start chopping firewood. It's coming.

Assuming inelastic demand for bitcoin transactions is wrong. If fees go high enough, there will be plenty of room in 1 MB blocks. There will also probably be plenty of cheap coins in this situation.

Realistically, the network's actual capacity in current form is more like 2.7 tps.

[BlindMayorBitcorn]

Well, I never really wanted to buy coffee with bitcoins anyway. I don't even drink coffee.

Is this relevant?

[billyjoeallen]

Follow the weekly Bitstamp chart. If it closes green for 6 times in a row, we are on bubble territory (currently 4 consecutive weekly greens). If we instead end this week in red, there is nothing to worry.

IF we get 6 greens, this means we can go on for a long time still but watch for a blowoff top and trade accordingly.

The methodology worked perfect in the latest 500 spike, and you can easily check a very good match with all previous bubbles as well.

First TERA and now Risto- we're getting the band back together!

no better indicator of a bull market than old-timers becoming active again

Hold on there, Pardner.  Don't confuse cause and effect. All that means is the price is higher.  The bull market isn't really back until the ATH is topped.  That won't happen without a scaling fix because long before we get to four digits, we'll slam into the 1MB blocksize limit. 

When the blocks are totally full, the fees could go up 100X what they are now because there is only enough capacity for ~600,000 transactions per day.  That's it, no matter how high the fees go, there won't be enough capacity for each of us to have even one xation/day each. NO MATTER HOW HIGH THE FEES GO.

You don't wait until the snow starts falling before you start chopping firewood. It's coming.

Assuming inelastic demand for bitcoin transactions is wrong. If fees go high enough, there will be plenty of room in 1 MB blocks. There will also probably be plenty of cheap coins in this situation.

Realistically, the network's actual capacity in current form is more like 2.7 tps.

That's exactly my point. You can have high BTC prices or you can have high xaction fees, but you can't have both. 

[niktitan132]

Im in again at 444 for 2 more btc.
$1000 here we come.

[Elwar]

How many gold transactions are possible each day?

[niktitan132]

How many gold transactions are possible each day?

To many to count. why?

[Fatman3001]

Well, I never really wanted to buy coffee with bitcoins anyway. I don't even drink coffee.

Is this relevant?

Pepsi or Coca Cola?

[Cconvert2G36]

How many gold transactions are possible each day?

Gold is protected from competition by its atomic structure. Bitcoin is open source code, it competes by being the best.

[BlindMayorBitcorn]

Well, I never really wanted to buy coffee with bitcoins anyway. I don't even drink coffee.

Is this relevant?

Pepsi or Coca Cola?

Edit:

[ErisDiscordia]

Follow the weekly Bitstamp chart. If it closes green for 6 times in a row, we are on bubble territory (currently 4 consecutive weekly greens). If we instead end this week in red, there is nothing to worry.

IF we get 6 greens, this means we can go on for a long time still but watch for a blowoff top and trade accordingly.

The methodology worked perfect in the latest 500 spike, and you can easily check a very good match with all previous bubbles as well.

First TERA and now Risto- we're getting the band back together!

no better indicator of a bull market than old-timers becoming active again

Hold on there, Pardner.  Don't confuse cause and effect. All that means is the price is higher.  The bull market isn't really back until the ATH is topped.  That won't happen without a scaling fix because long before we get to four digits, we'll slam into the 1MB blocksize limit.  

When the blocks are totally full, the fees could go up 100X what they are now because there is only enough capacity for ~600,000 transactions per day.  That's it, no matter how high the fees go, there won't be enough capacity for each of us to have even one xation/day each. NO MATTER HOW HIGH THE FEES GO.

You don't wait until the snow starts falling before you start chopping firewood. It's coming.

We will see. I am not so pessimistic about the issue of scaling. Guess I simply have more faith in the ability of decentralized systems to provide adequate answers for problems posed by the environment. Might also mean I'm more naive.

For the time being I see price catching up with development of infrastructure and I'm cheering from the sidelines.

And to be honest I feel like bull markets in Bitcoin started well before breaching the old ATH - that's just when they started to go crazy parabolic and made a new ATH within 2 months.

[BlindMayorBitcorn]

Satoshi talked about smallish consumer transactions like vending machines and porn. Did he fall into a math hole??

[jbreher]

Maybe I have. Check my math: 7TPS. 60 sec/min. 60 min/hr. 24 hr/day.

7*60*60*24= 604,800 transactions/day  Am I missing something?

Yeah. The fact that average transaction is not minimum size. Judging by recent transactions, the limit is more like 4-5 tps.

[Hyperjacked]

we'll be at >500 soon, but <400 sooner.

Fibonacci rules as always. Target is 380, but the situation is so bullish I am not trading off chances. Just wait until we get the 6 consecutive weekly green candles and then try to time the top. 20% daily rise is pretty good sign, 30% (on top of the exponential rise) is a sure sign.

Yes the situation is bullish and it is the weekend...380 is highly unlikely imo

More like sideways trading above the 2 month VWAP until the next move up!

Disclaimer:I'm wrong 32% of the time

[billyjoeallen]

Follow the weekly Bitstamp chart. If it closes green for 6 times in a row, we are on bubble territory (currently 4 consecutive weekly greens). If we instead end this week in red, there is nothing to worry.

IF we get 6 greens, this means we can go on for a long time still but watch for a blowoff top and trade accordingly.

The methodology worked perfect in the latest 500 spike, and you can easily check a very good match with all previous bubbles as well.

First TERA and now Risto- we're getting the band back together!

no better indicator of a bull market than old-timers becoming active again

Hold on there, Pardner.  Don't confuse cause and effect. All that means is the price is higher.  The bull market isn't really back until the ATH is topped.  That won't happen without a scaling fix because long before we get to four digits, we'll slam into the 1MB blocksize limit.  

When the blocks are totally full, the fees could go up 100X what they are now because there is only enough capacity for ~600,000 transactions per day.  That's it, no matter how high the fees go, there won't be enough capacity for each of us to have even one xation/day each. NO MATTER HOW HIGH THE FEES GO.

You don't wait until the snow starts falling before you start chopping firewood. It's coming.

We will see. I am not so pessimistic about the issue of scaling. Guess I simply have more faith in the ability of decentralized systems to provide adequate answers for problems posed by the environment. Might also mean I'm more naive.

For the time being I see price catching up with development of infrastructure and I'm cheering from the sidelines.

And to be honest I feel like bull markets in Bitcoin started well before breaching the old ATH - that's just when they started to go crazy parabolic and made a new ATH within 2 months.

Well, yeah. What will likely happen is that the 1 MB limit will be reached, the network will bog down, the price will crash. The miners will switch to BIP101 or BitcoinXT or something and then the price will recover. I just don't see the change that needs to happen, which is some kind of scaling solution, without a major market impetus. We have a shitload of money on the line and it makes us conservative.

The 1 MB limit will go away. What we don't know is if it will go away before or after a competing altcoin with no limit or a higher limit starts to eat Bitcoin's market share.

[peonminer]

[ChartBuddy]

Coin



Explanation

[fisheater22]

Wait, so we're below 440 AGAIN?
How is this possible?!

You are a fucking goofball prophet, and each of your posts bring further supporting evidence of such a reasonable conclusion.
 

FTFY

... That said, i'd be shitting myself right about now if i was leveraged long...

Will 450 hold?

Wait, so we're below 440 AGAIN?
How is this possible?!

[ErisDiscordia]

Well, yeah. What will likely happen is that the 1 MB limit will be reached, the network will bog down, the price will crash. The miners will switch to BIP101 or BitcoinXT or something and then the price will recover. I just don't see the change that needs to happen, which is some kind of scaling solution, without a major market impetus. We have a shitload of money on the line and it makes us conservative.

The 1 MB limit will go away. What we don't know is if it will go away before or after a competing altcoin with no limit or a higher limit starts to eat Bitcoin's market share.

We don't know what will happen but won't it be exciting to witness how these events will unfold?

I have my popcorn ready.

[vanobe]

Satoshi talked about smallish consumer transactions like vending machines and porn. Did he fall into a math hole??

Can you quote a Satoshi post where he talks about porn?

Most of his posts were about technical things, and I didn't think he would talk about anything else. I haven't read all his posts, but enough of them to know the technical talk in them goes way over my head.