Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[unent]

can't wait for news from FED...

What time will we find out what their decision is?

I couldn't find out a probable announcement time from Google, only that an announcement is expected sometime today, and the stock markets are waiting with baited breath for it.

Will the announcement be good or bad for Bitcoin?

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-stocks-eye-gains-as-interest-rate-hike-looms-2015-12-16
The Federal Reserve’s rate decision is due at 2 p.m. Eastern Time, followed by a news conference at 2:30 p.m. featuring Yellen.

Brilliant, so we have about four and a quarter hours left to wait. I have read innumerable opinions about what the FEDs decision will be, and what affect it will have on the Bitcoin market. Some say the price will go up, some say it will go down. All I'm sure of is something will happen to Bitcoin's price after the announcement.

[Torque]

It's unlikely the Fed will hike rates: the world is addicted to cheap credit now and the restrictive monetary policy would send the global GDP to oblivion.

You may be right, but I give it a 51% chance that they will hike 1/8-1/4%.  Yellen knows that Jawboning only works so long before we stop believing her, so she might have to give it a little bump to maintain her credibility. She has said over and over that rates need to normalize and if she KNOWS that if markets get too addicted to cheap credit that they will never be able to normalize, because the crash would be catastrophic.

Fuck, I don't know. We'll see. It's gonna be something.

The U.S. market opened today with a gap up. It's possible (and with insider trading, likely) that an interest rate hike has already been priced in to the U.S. market.  If true, then HNW traders are going to have fun short squeezing the shit out of those who were counting on a massive drop.  At least for a couple days or more.  But then the market could just continue it's decline after that.  Who knows.

As for how it affects the current bitcoin market, I haven't a clue.  I'd like to believe that the funds pouring in would not be affected in the least.

[ahpku]

... Some say the price will go up, some say it will go down. All I'm sure of is something will happen to Bitcoin's price after the announcement.

This is exactly the kind of incisive market analysis I come here for.

[spooderman]

when did you become such a bear troll BJA?

[ChartBuddy]

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Explanation

[rjclarke2000]

I must be honest and say I quite like some of BJA's posts. Brings up some valid points

[Fatman3001]

I'm sure we'll see some movement someone will blame on the fed decision, but I don't think Bitcoin cares at this point.

I must be honest and say I quite like some of BJA's posts. Brings up some valid points

Agreed. I even enjoy reading his less valid points.

[Divitiae miserae]

The usually conservative Kraken looks now bullish. lol

[billyjoeallen]

when did you become such a bear troll BJA?

Bulls are in a dangerous position. If the market goes much higher, xaction rate will raise, slowing the network down.  Then xaction fees will rise, hurting the business model of many of the most well-funded Bitcoin companies. The network is already a tiny bit slower with the difficulty hike.  

Plus there are such a low number of shorts that the money flowing in will have to absorb almost the entire dump with very little short covering.  

I'm only bearish because of the scaling problem. If it wasn't for that, I'd be all in. As I've said all along, I'm always net long because of my cold storage stash.

Scaling is a major issue. Is Bitcoin really anti-fragile or not? We just don't know yet.

[8up]

when did you become such a bear troll BJA?

Bulls are in a dangerous position. If the market goes much higher, xaction rate will raise, slowing the network down.  Then xaction fees will rise, hurting the business model of many of the most well-funded Bitcoin companies. The network is already a tiny bit slower with the difficulty hike.  

Plus there are such a low number of shorts that the money flowing in will have to absorb almost the entire dump with very little short covering.  

I'm only bearish because of the scaling problem. If it wasn't for that, I'd be all in. As I've said all along, I'm always net long because of my cold storage stash.

Scaling is a major issue. Is Bitcoin really anti-fragile or not? We just don't know yet.

Dito. Agree 100%

[goldsun]

Anyone who are more into bitcoin than me, could you please share some insight about how we will do in the coming days?

Will we go down from here or up?

[Elwar]

Will we go down from here or up?

Yes

[billyjoeallen]

Anyone who are more into bitcoin than me, could you please share some insight about how we will do in the coming days?

Will we go down from here or up?

To get good advice, you would need an answer from someone smart and honest. Without being here a while, you don't know who that is, so you'll be getting advice people talking their book and people trying to trick you into giving them your fiat or coins. 

Free advice is worth what you pay for it.

[goldsun]

Will we go down from here or up?

Yes

Very funny answer. Yes to what more exactly? Up or down? I guess it's not something you could answer tho..

[aztecminer]

Anyone who are more into bitcoin than me, could you please share some insight about how we will do in the coming days?

Will we go down from here or up?

recapping what others have already said: if the price of bitcoin goes up due to rate hike then shorts may get squashed.. if it doesn't then bitcoin might go down from here. alright we dont mess around in wall of observers forum thread. we are on top when it comes to knowing whats up and if anything is going down or not.

[Richy_T]

It's unlikely the Fed will hike rates: the world is addicted to cheap credit now and the restrictive monetary policy would send the global GDP to oblivion.

I think it's all but a sure thing

I'd wager a 95% chance they hike today by 25 bps

the market will violently correct if this doesn't happen and the Fed will have lost face

Nope. It's a choice between losing some face (of which there's not much left anyway) and causing a stock market downturn two weeks before an election year. I'm going with no change.

[ChartBuddy]

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Explanation

[adamstgBit]

Anyone who are more into bitcoin than me, could you please share some insight about how we will do in the coming days?

Will we go down from here or up?

up will require lots of buying, and there appears to be lots of buying... but i'm thinking down and have been for a while now... who knows...

[r0ach]

[adamstgBit]

>32,000$ in <2years