Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[billyjoeallen]

fork off already.

This is a good example of what I am talking about. This is something a consensus builder would not say.

BJA:   I hope that you are not suggesting that deep down inside that you possibly could be a consensus builder.

 

There is no "I" in "consensus", but there is an "us".

OF FUCKING A!!!!

Ok, I'm new to this. Who do we invade?

Fry's Electronics. We will need to build enough supermines by the Grand Coulee Dam to prevent a 51% attack by the ChiComs. 

[adamstgBit]

fork off already.

This is a good example of what I am talking about. This is something a consensus builder would not say.

BJA:   I hope that you are not suggesting that deep down inside that you possibly could be a consensus builder.

 

There is no "I" in "consensus", but there is an "us".

OF FUCKING A!!!!

Ok, I'm new to this. Who do we invade?

Fry's Electronics. We will need to build enough supermines by the Grand Coulee Dam to prevent a 51% attack by the ChiComs. 

are we blowing somthing up?

i'm in!

[tomothy]

Oh yeah, we still have that concentrated mining problem. Fuck.

I think this could just be a temporary problem depending on what happens with new hardware like bitfuy's mining lightbulbs, the 21inc machines, and just the new chips coming out. If wall street is serious, they will need hashpower to ensure their transactions get included in blocks. However, to make a large capital expenditure without having any clear roadmap of planning can make business people wary. I mean, if you can't plan on what's going to happen with bitcoin size how can you develop your applications. It's safer to maybe premine your own currency /shrug.

[billyjoeallen]

fork off already.

This is a good example of what I am talking about. This is something a consensus builder would not say.

BJA:   I hope that you are not suggesting that deep down inside that you possibly could be a consensus builder.

 

There is no "I" in "consensus", but there is an "us".

OF FUCKING A!!!!

Ok, I'm new to this. Who do we invade?

Fry's Electronics. We will need to build enough supermines by the Grand Coulee Dam to prevent a 51% attack by the ChiComs. 

are we blowing somthing up?

i'm in!

My short, hopefully.

[blunderer]

Oh yeah, we still have that concentrated mining problem. Fuck.

I think this could just be a temporary problem depending on what happens with new hardware like bitfuy's mining lightbulbs, the 21inc machines ...

I guess when every screw-in light bulb in US is replaced with Bitfury's "Remember to NOT shut off your lights" bulbs...

[Fatman3001]

fork off already.

This is a good example of what I am talking about. This is something a consensus builder would not say.

BJA:   I hope that you are not suggesting that deep down inside that you possibly could be a consensus builder.

 

There is no "I" in "consensus", but there is an "us".

OF FUCKING A!!!!

Ok, I'm new to this. Who do we invade?

Fry's Electronics. We will need to build enough supermines by the Grand Coulee Dam to prevent a 51% attack by the ChiComs.  

are we blowing somthing up?

i'm in!

Ok, but we'll expect strict discipline.



Edit:

are we blowing somthing up?

i'm in!

My shorts, hopefully.

That was uncalled for.

[billyjoeallen]

Oh yeah, we still have that concentrated mining problem. Fuck.

I think this could just be a temporary problem depending on what happens with new hardware like bitfuy's mining lightbulbs, the 21inc machines ...

I guess when every screw-in light bulb in US is replaced with Bitfury's "Remember to NOT shut off your lights" bulbs...

Yeah, mining lightbulbs are a colossally stupid idea, but Bitfury makes really efficient chips and it's their mines outside the U.S. AND China that could make Bitcoin truly censorship resistant.

[sAt0sHiFanClub]

Epic copy-pasta!

A Call for Consensus

James Hilliard
Pool/Farm Admin
BitmainWarranty

Poolboy more like. FFS.

do you disagree with there open letter?

would you feel better if i signed it?  

About 2 of those names are worth anything. All the rest are fluff - bar Hilliard. He is just a fraud misrepresenting himself as "Bitmain" (He is not)

[sAt0sHiFanClub]

Epic copy-pasta!

A Call for Consensus

James Hilliard
Pool/Farm Admin
BitmainWarranty

Poolboy more like. FFS.

Hey, that name looks familiar. Nice of them to include such a srs businessman, and near the top too.

Such timing on the Sybil attack topic!

/PseudoNode:0.11.2/ is here.



One of the first ones... gone now, was more interesting than the rest...



 
https://archive.is/JEav8

One and the same.  A complete fraud.  

[blunderer]

Oh yeah, we still have that concentrated mining problem. Fuck.

I think this could just be a temporary problem depending on what happens with new hardware like bitfuy's mining lightbulbs, the 21inc machines ...

I guess when every screw-in light bulb in US is replaced with Bitfury's "Remember to NOT shut off your lights" bulbs...

Yeah, mining lightbulbs are a colossally stupid idea, but Bitfury makes really efficient chips and it's their mines outside the U.S. AND China that could make Bitcoin truly censorship resistant.

But if electricity costs are lower in China, wouldn't it make sense to mine with more efficient chips there?

[sAt0sHiFanClub]

Oh yeah, we still have that concentrated mining problem. Fuck.

I think this could just be a temporary problem depending on what happens with new hardware like bitfuy's mining lightbulbs, the 21inc machines ...

I guess when every screw-in light bulb in US is replaced with Bitfury's "Remember to NOT shut off your lights" bulbs...

Yeah, mining lightbulbs are a colossally stupid idea, but Bitfury makes really efficient chips and it's their mines outside the U.S. AND China that could make Bitcoin truly censorship resistant.

But if electricity costs are lower in China, wouldn't it make sense to mine with more efficient chips there?

Do we all have to sit in the dark then?   

[ChartBuddy]

Coin



Explanation

[HI-TEC99]

Oh yeah, we still have that concentrated mining problem. Fuck.

I think this could just be a temporary problem depending on what happens with new hardware like bitfuy's mining lightbulbs, the 21inc machines ...

I guess when every screw-in light bulb in US is replaced with Bitfury's "Remember to NOT shut off your lights" bulbs...

Yeah, mining lightbulbs are a colossally stupid idea, but Bitfury makes really efficient chips and it's their mines outside the U.S. AND China that could make Bitcoin truly censorship resistant.

But if electricity costs are lower in China, wouldn't it make sense to mine with more efficient chips there?

Do we all have to sit in the dark then?  

Yes if you factor in the cost of connecting all your light bulbs to phone lines. Wouldn't the price of installing all the lines plus all the work re-plastering and redecorating be prohibitive? It's messy and expensive moving one telephone socket from one side of the room to the other. Wiring every light bulb to a telephone line would be a nightmare.

[billyjoeallen]

Oh yeah, we still have that concentrated mining problem. Fuck.

I think this could just be a temporary problem depending on what happens with new hardware like bitfuy's mining lightbulbs, the 21inc machines ...

I guess when every screw-in light bulb in US is replaced with Bitfury's "Remember to NOT shut off your lights" bulbs...

Yeah, mining lightbulbs are a colossally stupid idea, but Bitfury makes really efficient chips and it's their mines outside the U.S. AND China that could make Bitcoin truly censorship resistant.

But if electricity costs are lower in China, wouldn't it make sense to mine with more efficient chips there?

Having more than 50% hashing power in one political jurisdiction creates a vulnerability the same way having more than 50% hashpower in one pool does. Douglas County, Washington has plenty of carbon neutral electricity for sale at less than 2 cents/kilowatthour.  Several very large mines are there already, but we need to triple the hashpower to eliminate the possibility of Chinese mine nationalization/51% attack. That attack is not just a remote possibility. The risk gets greater the higher the price gets as long as mining is concentrated.

[blunderer]

Oh yeah, we still have that concentrated mining problem. Fuck.

I think this could just be a temporary problem depending on what happens with new hardware like bitfuy's mining lightbulbs, the 21inc machines ...

I guess when every screw-in light bulb in US is replaced with Bitfury's "Remember to NOT shut off your lights" bulbs...

Yeah, mining lightbulbs are a colossally stupid idea, but Bitfury makes really efficient chips and it's their mines outside the U.S. AND China that could make Bitcoin truly censorship resistant.

But if electricity costs are lower in China, wouldn't it make sense to mine with more efficient chips there?

Do we all have to sit in the dark then?  

I was thinking of marketing a companion product: A kit, consisting of an extension adapter similar to this that you screw the mining bulb into, but here's the cool part: instructions on how to disassemble the mining light bulb, cut a couple of traces, and solder in a couple of jumpers, so that the miner stays on all the time, while you can shut off the light bulb with a string.

Chances of success are 100%, because combines immense "practicality" with DIY/hacker ethic.

Edit: Should I Kickstarter or Bitcoin Securities IPO?

[blunderer]

...
Having more than 50% hashing power in one political jurisdiction creates a vulnerability the same way having more than 50% hashpower in one pool does. Douglas County, Washington has plenty of carbon neutral electricity for sale at less than 2 cents/kilowatthour.

Read an interview with some power co. exec somewhere that this wasn't going to be the case for long, will look it up (or you could, it's on the web).

Several very large mines are there already, but we need to triple the hashpower to eliminate the possibility of Chinese mine nationalization/51% attack. ...

Do you remember the names by any chance?

[JayJuanGee]

O.k.  Per theme of the thread… and popular demand......         here’s my go at a BTC price prediction based on our recent BTC price action.

I would suggest that currently, we largely are floating within about a $400 to $425 price channel, and how long will that last, I am not sure. Could be several hours or could last several weeks, but most likely a few days and through the weekend (until Monday or Tuesday is a fair approximation).

I do tend to think that we are getting some upward price pressures and generally people are no longer buying some of the imminent forking propaganda and the block size limit bullshit that has been in the press for the past 5 months and emphasized as a reason to push prices down in the past month and a half... and also people seem to be realizing generally that bitcoin core (and the general direction forward of bitcoin) has a pretty decent, conservative and reasonable plan(s). If you want me to cite some kind of source, here than let me know.

In the past several days or so, I kind of believed that we could have gotten enough upward price momentum to break out in the upper direction towards the upper $420s and maybe even into the $430s, but it is possible that we are not ready yet for that level of upward price movement, and the trade volume has not really picked up very much in the past few weeks (even with this recent price rise), but now after a little lingering in the lower $420s and then a bit of a shooting down to $414 last night, I am thinking that there is a pretty decent chance that we could possibly stay in this $400 to $425 price channel all weekend....

As is frequently repeated, never say never in bitcoinlandia, and surely within hours, I could be proven wrong and alerted again to another price alarm of BTC prices shooting upward and out of the upper $420s and beyond price range or even in the opposite direction.

Within any price channel (and possible consolidation period) we could break slightly beyond on the upside of the price channel or towards the downside of the price channel for short periods within that channel.

I am kind of thinking that maybe there is some needs for attempts at profit taking (that means down) at this time and to test the downward resolve of the BTC market, and in that regard, prices may break down first over the weekend, and then possibly get stuck back in a similar channel or a little bit lower price channel (around the $400 level) before breaking back upwards, later down the road?

If we do not break down over the weekend and manage to largely stay above $410 all weekend, then that outcome would probably be fairly bullish for bitcoin prices in the short-term and be a sign that chances are pretty decent that the next break out of this particular price channel is going to be upwards, rather than downwards.. and bring us, possibly, towards testing the upper $460s again (and who knows from there?  We would need a further assessment at that time, depending on the intensity in which such a price break out would occur).

Overall, at the moment, I am a bit more inclined towards upwards (53%) rather than downwards (47%) – even though I am thinking that there is a greater than average chance of a bit of short-lived downwards retracement first.

Maybe that is a bit of a lame and all over the place BTC price prediction, but since my BTC price alarms woke me up at $414 last night (and then prices bounced almost immediately back over $416), I thought that I should write a few thoughts about my revelations caused by that startling event. 

any contrary predictions?

[billyjoeallen]

...
Having more than 50% hashing power in one political jurisdiction creates a vulnerability the same way having more than 50% hashpower in one pool does. Douglas County, Washington has plenty of carbon neutral electricity for sale at less than 2 cents/kilowatthour.

Read an interview with some power co. exec somewhere that this wasn't going to be the case for long, will look it up (or you could, it's on the web).

Several very large mines are there already, but we need to triple the hashpower to eliminate the possibility of Chinese mine nationalization/51% attack. ...

Do you remember the names by any chance?

Most of them understandably keep a low profile, but Jonathan Toomim's mine is there. 

[AlexGR]

fork off already.

This is a good example of what I am talking about. This is something a consensus builder would not say.

there is no consensus to be found whatsoever with socialist freeshit spammers.

so you are free to fork off to whatever bloated corpcoin, gavincoin, usgcoin..

bitcoin will still exist as is and prevail in value with its conservative original parameters.

Facebook went years without ads to grow it's user base. Is Zuckerberg a socialist?  Youtube did the same thing. So did Google, Microsoft, IBM, Yahoo!...are all these companies charities?

How many years?

BTC is on it's 7th year, approaching the second halving, and already having distributed nearly 75% of the total monetary base (leaving just 25% for subsidy). Fees are currently at 0.01 - 0.04$ = peanuts, despite "Blocks are full".

For as many years as it takes to reach a critical mass of users.  Businesses and investors are forward thinking.  If fees double every year, in a decade they could be over $10,000 per transaction! 

In a parallel universe where maths works differently, maybe we'd get to 10.000$. In this universe it would work like this:

Year 1: 0.03$
Year 2: 0.06$
Year 3: 0.12$
Year 4: 0.24$
Year 5: 0.48$
Year 6: 0.96$
Year 7: 1.92$
Year 8: 3.84$
Year 9: 7.68$
Year 10: 15.36$

For the time being we have something like

Year 1 to Year 7 = peanuts.

What you propose about consistently low fees can only have 2 outcomes:

1) Miners cutting every low fee tx by themselves and imposing a fee market, which can trigger "riots" and new fork attempts to stop the evil miners from not processing our txs.
2) Idiots pushing for >21mn coins and more inflation "to keep fees low so that more adoption can take place".

[blunderer]

...
Having more than 50% hashing power in one political jurisdiction creates a vulnerability the same way having more than 50% hashpower in one pool does. Douglas County, Washington has plenty of carbon neutral electricity for sale at less than 2 cents/kilowatthour.

Read an interview with some power co. exec somewhere that this wasn't going to be the case for long, will look it up (or you could, it's on the web).

Several very large mines are there already, but we need to triple the hashpower to eliminate the possibility of Chinese mine nationalization/51% attack. ...

Do you remember the names by any chance?

Most of them understandably keep a low profile, but Jonathan Toomim's mine is there.  

So those are the stealth mines supplying the stealth investors (the ones paying x10 spot for clean BTC -- to accumulate off-the-books, under-the-radar, without causing slippage)!
It all makes perfect sense now.

@AlexGR:
1. Google didn't start f8king its search pages with ads until it was securely THE search engine to use. Had it tried, you'd be Yahooing & Binging nao.
2. We don't need to support the miners we don't need gadzillahashes -- the fees will happen when they happen.