There is still a huge amount of upward momentum in this market, judging by the moving averages. The problem is, if we continue on this trajectory, blocks will fill first, then fees will double.
With fees like the current ones, it is actually a miracle that 1MB (or 1.7+) that blocks aren't fuller than 800kb on average. It's every spammers dream.
Then fees will quadruple, octuple, etc.
You are counting spam txs, dice / microgambling, etc as transactions that are willing to pay 2x/4x/8x, thus there's the first error of your reasoning.
until even the mathematincally challenged pumpmonkeys start to extrapolate what this means. Even though fees are still cheap, they will be only so for a very short period of time.
We've been hearing this crap since last summer. Fees don't go up because legit txs are way below the 1mb average and the rest is always topped off with spam that goes in by paying as low as it can.
we have the capacity for a half million active users at most. Even if we ALL go away and get replaced by high rollers doing drug deals or speculating on the halving or whatever, and even if SegWit almost doubles the capacity, then what? Things just stagnate until we go through another two year clusterfuck to kick the can again? Rinse and repeat?
and what if through some miracle we get through all of that with flying colors and market cap goes to 100 Billion. Do you think the PBoC and the Communist Party of China will be happy with that and just let it continue to grow?
You are on a FUD-roll there, aren't you?
1. You are totally overlooking the Bitcoin-store-of-value aspect, relating marketcap with tx capacity. How many online tx/sec can gold do? Yes, that's precisely ZERO.
2. How many RL gold txs occur daily and where? There is no country with gold as its currency. The only places where gold is traded for money are failed states, countries with huge devaluation or hyperinflation, or, mining cities (take 300oz gold, give me the bulldozer). The vast amount of gold trading takes place in electronic platforms that are trading fictional amounts of gold.
I'm starting to think the best way for me to liquidate my stash is just to sell a coin a week for however many years it takes, regardless of whether the price goes up or down. The objective of traders is to make money, of course, but the purpose of traders is SUPPOSED to be to function as liquidity providers who reduce volatility.
The problem as I see it is that
"...if I say that I sold, how can I continue selling FUD on the forum?" As others posters said, sell and move on - if you have anything that is. You were threatening to sell in the 200's, 300's, 400's, etc.
What is SUPPOSED to happen according to economic theory is that as quantity of money creation decreases (halvings), velocity of money (transactions) is supposed to go up to compensate, maintaining the balance of MV=PQ.
Again zero consideration for the impact of competitive money (devaluating FIAT vs scarce bitcoin with diminishing inflation).
This clearly cannot happen if scaling is slower than halvings. Even if Core changes their own governance rules to ratify this roundtable agreement, scaling may be slower than halvings. Sidechains, lighting network, etc are no substitute because they effectively trade Bitcon IOUs and not actual bitcoin. You get the same problem that the fiat world has: a fractional reserve money multiplier than can either run positive or negative and screw up the balance. At some point, Bitcoin may hit stall speed and enter into an unrecoverable dive. What scares the shit out of me is this may have already happened. 27 months since the ATH, we're trading at <50%.
1. Forgive BTC for going from 10$ to 1000$+ and needing to catch its breath.
2. Scaling is insured in terms of money transacted, even if tx/s remain constant (
which they won't - due to the roadmap). If you replace 100 transactions of 0.1$ with 100 transactions of 1$, you've scaled the transaction volume of money 10 times. If you replace them again with 10$ txs, you've gone upwards by 100x.
At something like 2000 txs/block, right now, you can choose to buy 2000 boxes of chewing gums for practically zero savings over traditional payment means, or you can choose to make high value payments, that will save you tens/hundreds/thousands of dollars in bank fees per transaction - and at which point a fee like even 1$ may be ridiculously low. The other day I got something like 250$ in paypal and from my paypal account to my hand I had already lost >20$ due to paypal fees, currency exchange fees, wire fees etc. Again:
20 fucking dollars. And people (from the FUD camp) are like "ohhhhh no, fees are expensive in Bitcoin because... it ain't totally free, I still need to pay 2-3 cents... the world will end and adoption will come to a halt if we have to pay more". Seriously? You mean people would prefer to lose 20-50-100$ in fees instead of losing ...0.something$ in Bitcoin? For real?
Somebody please tell me the error of my thinking
You are welcome.
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