Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ImI]

The Chinese miners sent a group letter to Core pledging that they would not change client software, but would they please give a date for a 2MB hard fork and tell us when they decide in the next three weeks?

date for HF is march/april 2017.

where i got that from? sources. 

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[adamstgBit]

so micro transactions at nearly no cost. is a flaw not a feature?

Near zero-cost txs = near zero-cost abuse.

When you have systems that are highly inefficient and thus vulnerable to abuse in order to achieve being trustless and decentralized, then you have to protect these systems from abuse through economic disincentives.

This is not only relative to bitcoin: Altcoins suffer the same fate. There is no alt that can have near-zero or zero fees and not have an open attack vector of abuse.

However, what is now problematic, may not be in the future as technology progresses.

From 1995 to 2015 we went 1000x in networks, storage, cpu etc. Till 2036 we could see a similar growth pattern of 100x-1000x-10.000x - who knows.

ask the miners getting paid these fees if they feel they are getting abused....
the goal has always been to get so many TX that a tiny fee supports mining.
"spam" ( millions betting <1$ on dice games)  will allow for me to play dice games at nearly no cost. so i like le spam

and no i don't care how my hardrive feels about this.

[AlexGR]

so micro transactions at nearly no cost. is a flaw not a feature?

Near zero-cost txs = near zero-cost abuse.

When you have systems that are highly inefficient and thus vulnerable to abuse in order to achieve being trustless and decentralized, then you have to protect these systems from abuse through economic disincentives.

This is not only relative to bitcoin: Altcoins suffer the same fate. There is no alt that can have near-zero or zero fees and not have an open attack vector of abuse.

However, what is now problematic, may not be in the future as technology progresses.

From 1995 to 2015 we went 1000x in networks, storage, cpu etc. Till 2036 we could see a similar growth pattern of 100x-1000x-10.000x - who knows.

ask the miners getting paid these fees if they feel they are getting abused....

The political environment is weird and volatile right now. Every action could be used for flaming - either way an argument goes. For example:

If, say, devs make some changes that lead to increased fees "ohhh they want to exclude the small guy..."
If, say, devs make some changes that lead to fee reductions "ohhh they are fucking over the miners and the long-term security of the network"

If, say, miners process junk txs with near-zero fees, "ohhh they are including all the spam"
If, say, miners don't process junk txs, "we must take action to FORCE miners to mine txs, they can't just mine nearly empty blocks because they don't like the small fees paid"

the goal has always been to get so many TX that a tiny fee supports mining.
"spam" ( millions betting <1$ on dice games)  will allow for me to play dice games at nearly no cost. so i like le spam

Long-term goal is for bitcoin to be able to handle every microtx.

Short-term, while hardware, network and software aren't up there yet, is to "manage" the situation, even by excluding small micro-txs as uneconomical to be processed. This is not something that "Core" started. It was started by Satoshi himself.

Bumping the blocksize up with current software, networks, storage, cpu etc etc, is hitting a wall after a few tens of txs per second - it doesn't work for a massive payment system, and definitely not for microtxs.

It needs much better networks/storage/processing power, or it needs much more efficient software (or a combination of both) to get there for microtxs.

In theory the network is agnostic whether you transfer 0.01 btc or 10 btc. But in the real world, when a bank or paypal charges you 20$ for a 300$ transfer, it's best if you take this through BTC - and you keep the 20$.

...and when you have, say, 30 txs per second in BTC as max capacity, you'd better be utilizing them to the best of your ability to maximize your savings versus the banking system, by saving serious money that would be paid in banking fees (10-20-100$ in traditional payment method fees) rather than wasting these 30 txs/sec with microtxs, dice, etc. Besides, there are altcoins that would be far cheaper for this type of use. When the system is able to do 300-3000-30.000 tx/s, then even microtxs will be quite viable.

[aztecminer]

It's going back up! Come on, Adam. It's only four bucks.

na

i gata go to bed if i bet 4$ i will stay up, and my girl will be sad, and thats just no good for me.


but hey $4 says >412.5 by morning, take it or leave it.

you've made $2 so far, why not bet $4

i really gtg,

let's make a few more bets on some 2hr candles or somthing tomorrow, it's fun!

Why the hell not? You've been a good sport, so ok.  deal.

GOOOOOD morning
 

yeah, you won your two bucks back. Congratulations.  We're even.

ok now...

300$ says every single month price will be > then the previous month for the next 10 years.

I'd take you up on that, but I don't want to have $300 tied up in escrow for ten years.  My short is in eminent danger of getting rekt, so I'd have to pull it out of cold storage.  If you're right, $10 worth of bitcoin today would more than cover it!

I agree with you, it looks like the bear market is finally over, but there will be down months after the next bubble.

I guess people figured out even a contended hard fork would not leave two chains for more than a day or two, tops. This blocksize issue is not going to go away, but remember in 2013 we all suspected Gox was insolvent, but it didn't stop the Great Bubble.  

Markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent. Now I'm thinking fullblocalypse and the halving cancel each other out. Either way, they're both well known and likely priced in.  

u really are short ?? no wonders this thing pumped. .. i disagree that halvening cancels out bitcoin that cant scale.. it aint gonna matter how many coins are mined... if this thing still cant scale after the halvening .. well it will only have been a YEAR and HALF of waiting. #ridiculousness #GimpedCoin

Yeah, I'm short. I have a tiger by the tail and I can't let it go. Really stupid, I know, but I'm so far upside down now that I might as well let it ride.  Just look for like a  spike on BFX. That'll be me blowing up.


Bitcoin can't scale, but that won't stop the gamblers from pumping. We all suspected something was wrong with Gox, but it didn't stop the Big Bubble in 2013.  The Chinese are still driving this thing and you know how Asians drive...

well i am sorta short.. cuz i refuse to buy at these inflated prices. .. if recent past then this will be back down at 380 here soon . it appears everyone dumped eth finally . that might be reason for this pump.

[aztecminer]

^Take comfort in the fact that this is all just Ethereans crashing out. It will be over before you know it.

hm.. yep i was thinking same thing.

[bargainbin]

...
 "640 k ought to be enough for anybody." - Bill Gates, 1981 never

LOL

FTFY. Because even funnier when everyone repeats shit he never said.

[BlindMayorBitcorn]

...
On the next reward halving hundreds of millions of dollars in obsolete mining hardware will be sold cheaply privately or online. This will open a window of vulnerability giving an attacker the possibility to buy a huge amount of hashing power for very little money and execute a 51% attack.

 

Right, or simply a mega factory mine which hasn't bought into the latest generation gear & is stuck with hangars already built out & running.
Unable to mine by the rules, so no longer invested in BTC, but able to form an axis of evol with other newly-obsoleted factory mines & wreak havoc

This is a very strange experiment.

If I had the money I’d probably do it just for sport. And I like Bitcoin.

[ChartBuddy]

Coin



Explanation

[gentlemand]

^Take comfort in the fact that this is all just Ethereans crashing out. It will be over before you know it.

Hasn't the overwhelming majority of the trading been eth/btc and nowhere near the main usd or one single Chinese exchange? In that case they're happily sat in BTC and not buying any more.

[valta4065]

...
On the next reward halving hundreds of millions of dollars in obsolete mining hardware will be sold cheaply privately or online. This will open a window of vulnerability giving an attacker the possibility to buy a huge amount of hashing power for very little money and execute a 51% attack.

 

Right, or simply a mega factory mine which hasn't bought into the latest generation gear & is stuck with hangars already built out & running.
Unable to mine by the rules, so no longer invested in BTC, but able to form an axis of evol with other newly-obsoleted factory mines & wreak havoc

This is a very strange experiment.

If I had the money I’d probably do it just for sport. And I like Bitcoin.

Well I understand you but... it would take so much effort ^^
But you would actually control bitcoin and that would be crazy cool... The end of it would be that it would just kill bitcoin though!

[BlindMayorBitcorn]

^Take comfort in the fact that this is all just Ethereans crashing out. It will be over before you know it.

Hasn't the overwhelming majority of the trading been eth/btc and nowhere near the main usd or one single Chinese exchange? In that case they're happily sat in BTC and not buying any more.

IDK. Probably?

I'm more worried about 51% attacks today. The halvening could mean doom. Isn't it?

...
On the next reward halving hundreds of millions of dollars in obsolete mining hardware will be sold cheaply privately or online. This will open a window of vulnerability giving an attacker the possibility to buy a huge amount of hashing power for very little money and execute a 51% attack.

 

Right, or simply a mega factory mine which hasn't bought into the latest generation gear & is stuck with hangars already built out & running.
Unable to mine by the rules, so no longer invested in BTC, but able to form an axis of evol with other newly-obsoleted factory mines & wreak havoc

This is a very strange experiment.

If I had the money I’d probably do it just for sport. And I like Bitcoin.

Well I understand you but... it would take so much effort ^^
But you would actually control bitcoin and that would be crazy cool... The end of it would be that it would just kill bitcoin though!

I know.

[JayJuanGee]

going over 420 will inevitably lead to new highs, my best guess is 760 within 3months, but breaking 420 has some technical significance,and so...

THE NEXT 24HOURS ARE CRITICAL

I'd like to say that you're crazy as hell... But last time I said that you were right so xD

Yeah, that surely would be quite a bit of price appreciation within three months.  I'm not quite that bullish, at the moment.


I get the sense that the current price rise is going to allow people to realize that the downward price pressure from the Hearn FUD and related blocksize and fork FUD have been greatly exaggerated - though these FUDsters are likely not going to be giving up any time soon in their spreading and attempts at spreading the bullshit.

So, maybe we are going to have a bit more lingering between $400 and $650-ish.

I am inclined to believe that within the next three months, we could get enough upwards price momentum to break through $467 and then to break through $502  and those break throughs will likely bring prices into the mid-$600's territory...   Accordingly, we are going to likely need to take a bit of a break in the $600s and maybe even revisit the $400s after visiting the mid $650s.

 The next stage will allow us t0o visit the $760s and beyond.. and I am a bit puzzled about what could happen in that $760s arena... because once prices begin to approach $800, there is going to likely be enough momentum to take prices into new ATH levels of $3k to $5k... yet I remain a bit uncertain regarding how long it is going to take to be able to move into the mid-$700s and even breaking into the $800s that will likely cause such upward price momentum to shoot well past the previous ATH price arena.

[gentlemand]

I'm more worried about 51% attacks today. The halvening could mean doom. Isn't it?

I don't really get why a bunch of clapped out miners covered in dead spiders, dust and snot could compete with a mountain of gleaming new machinery, but if it gets you through the day then I fully support you.

[ChartBuddy]

Coin



Explanation

[BlindMayorBitcorn]

I'm more worried about 51% attacks today. The halvening could mean doom. Isn't it?

I don't really get why a bunch of clapped out miners covered in dead spiders, dust and snot could compete with a mountain of gleaming new machinery, but if it gets you through the day then I fully support you.

You always know how to make me feel better.

[JayJuanGee]

I miss lambie. He was a class act.

Well, maybe it's all relative.... Lambie was annoying as well, but you fatty seem to be suffering from false memory nastalgia.... hahahahaha

 

Wtf are you guys talking about? Bargainbin and blunderer or whatever is NLC ,so he is still here (or am I losing it?)

I was trying to shut down a spamming nazi psycho. Idk what JJG was doing. Don't think he knows either.

Fair enough regarding attempting to shut down Solitude.... Solitude was getting a bit irritating, as you stated...

But I was asserting that Lambie was also annoying whether it was the original Lambie or the various sock puppet Lambies.

I have no real problem with a bit of trolling and a bit of fun and off topic here and there, but when it becomes apparent that some poster is on a mission to undermine and clog the thread (such as Lambie), to me it doesn't really matter that much, anymore, that s/he / it comes off as a kind of gentleman troller. 

It's kind of like Stolfi... sure, he is a nice admitted troller, but sometimes the willful spinning of information becomes very irritating and shows that he is in the process of just spreading misinformation.   Yeah, Stolfi is not as bad as Lambie, but Lambie's "classiness" was not exactly good for the overall trolling and distracting outcome.

[BlindMayorBitcorn]

This Time Bitcoin's Price Increase is Both Logical and Sustainable

 

[marcus_of_augustus]

I'm more worried about 51% attacks today. The halvening could mean doom. Isn't it?

I don't really get why a bunch of clapped out miners covered in dead spiders, dust and snot could compete with a mountain of gleaming new machinery, but if it gets you through the day then I fully support you.

... he lives on FUD, it is his main diet, laps it up, wallows in it like a FUD slug in muck, take away his FUD and he dies. Born into FUD.

[BlindMayorBitcorn]

^That's a half-truth.

My original post was actually a verbatim quote from the Rootstock white paper.

Here it is again: On the next reward halving hundreds of millions of dollars in obsolete mining hardware will be sold cheaply privately or online. This will open a window of vulnerability giving an attacker the possibility to buy a huge amount of hashing power for very little money and execute a 51% attack.

https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/3vg06a/official_release_rootstock_white_paper/

So take it up with them^

Also:

Ok truce.

Now if all the big block governance coup lusers can stop posting their ill-informed drivel about technical matters and development ... then they can get back to work on communications, lobbying politicos, PR junkets, associated marketing hype and those other things they are good at to push bitcoin favourably would be good.

I thought we had a truce?

[oggy932]

^Take comfort in the fact that this is all just Ethereans crashing out. It will be over before you know it.

Hasn't the overwhelming majority of the trading been eth/btc and nowhere near the main usd or one single Chinese exchange? In that case they're happily sat in BTC and not buying any more.

The Poloniex, Kraken, and Gatecoin BTC markets have been the highest volume ETH market today. The majority of ETH trading is in BTC not fiat. Most of the ETH traders will be riding the waves, selling the highs and buying the lows on the way back down, they won't want to sell their BTC for fiat when they can double up.