Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[billyjoeallen]

You gotta trust somebody

Right. with bitcoin I need to trust the integrity of the blockchain, that the record has not been tampered with. I can verify this myself, and I can cross-verify with several thousand other nodes across the network.

In a fiat transaction I need to trust the government and central bank, which do not have a great track record over the last hundred years. When was the last time the federal reserve was audited?

With Bitcoin you only have to trust the government and central bank of China.  Chinese miners caved to core. You think they wouldn't cave to their own government?  

I'm certain they would capitulate to their government. If they try to make a change or otherwise manipulate transactions their blocks will be rejected and we will fork.

Why can you not understand censorship resistance?

Maybe you can help me understand. So we fork, but we would have to fork away from SHA256 or they could just point to the new fork and doublespend again, right?

Forking seems to be a last resort thing, and there is no code or plan in place to make that kind of switch, to say nothing of no hashpower to secure the new fork, so it could take weeks or months and in the meantime, no Bitcoin.  During that time, could not the Chinese easily discover our new hashing algorithm and swamp the hashpools with more doublespending?

So please, explain this censorship resistance. How is this not a vulnerability?

Censorship resistance comes from the fact that change cannot be forced upon the bitcoin network. Anyone who refuses to accept the new blocks will simply do so and continue on their merry way. You can only double-spend bitcoin that you control. The people that are actually using bitcoin will simply continue to use bitcoin. Any strange blocks or attempt to re-write the blockchain will simply be ignored.

The fork is not last resort, the fork will happen as soon as the first block is formed that does not conform with the consensus rules.  

The network is secured by HASHPOWER! is this not obvious?  Does someone have a warehouse full of SHA512 ASICs laying around to secure the new fork if our hashpower gets compromised?

Even if it is, we can write the code for this new fork in 10 minutes? Convince everyone to use it (because convincing people of the need to upgrade is so damn easy).  I feel like the only sane guy in a loony bin!

or Inigo Montoya.

What is this term "censorship resistance?" I do not think it means what you think it means.

Yo, Dumbass, how much hashpower do you control? Zero? Ok then.

Shut up slave, you have no say in this. (Thank goodness)

Just sell all your coins and leave already. There, I've said it twice, I won't say it again.

(* how you like my version of whiny rage-quit? *)

So your response is to call me a dumbass? That doesn't seem like a real answer. Do you have a logical answer to my concerns?  Does anybody?

There is a difference between Bitcoin being uncensored and being censorship resistant. We are currently uncensored, but at the mercy of a government that will not allow banks in that country to even hold bitcoin accounts or allow their citizens to do anything with this currency except speculate on it.  This is not exactly a huge selling point. 

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[blunderer]

... you are an enemy of bitcoin.

[JayJuanGee]

Bitcoin: distributed decentralized money secured by cowardly miners concentrated in China.  There is no plan or code to switch security measures if they get compromised.

Awesome. This is where I keep my life savings.  I'm a fucking genius.

ignored ... i don't know who has taken over the BJA account but it is clear now your aim is to FUD and stir shit at every turn, big-block war pumping, now something new to pump FUD ... you are an enemy of bitcoin.

No one has taken over his account.   He's a fucking attention whore whinner, and he his ongoing conduct shows that he has always been one.

Surely, he has had some good posts and contributions over the years, but he just wants attention, and then he talks his book, and really, he tends to take away much more than he gives in his various seemingly spontaneous emotional outbursts.  

7/10 of the time he is a glass half full kind of guy, which maybe makes him (if lucky) a 3.5 on a 10 scale...  

[adamstgBit]

Let's look at Adam's poll: 79 percent support the compromise. Totally too small of a samples size, but just for shits and giggles, let's assume that is representative. 75% is NOT consensus, but 79% is?

on bitcointalk poll 60% = consensus

60% is a pass, we can't expect everyone to understand the question, and answer it correctly. ( i kid... sorta )

ok that was a lame answer here a better thought out one..


poeple hitting that "no" option are most likely just not entirely clear as to what the options are, and had they been at the meetingS, discussing and arguing face to face with all the knowledge we expect our leaders to possess, they would have actually agreed. we can call it consensus when the top 1% most informed all agree i guess. it's really crazy to expect everyone to be 100% well informed & have given the question the appropriate amount of thought.

... you are an enemy of bitcoin.

and then there this guy



80% approval ! wowzers this is it.

[ImI]

interesting! mark friedenbach seems to not like the consensus that was reached today. if he stands as example gmax could also oppose the consensus.

https://np.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/46po4l/we_have_consensus_in_april_we_get_sw_3_months/d074dh7

will they do their own fork now?

[shmadz]

So your response is to call me a dumbass? That doesn't seem like a real answer. Do you have a logical answer to my concerns?  Does anybody?

There is a difference between Bitcoin being uncensored and being censorship resistant. We are currently uncensored, but at the mercy of a government that will not allow banks in that country to even hold bitcoin accounts or allow their citizens to do anything with this currency except speculate on it.  This is not exactly a huge selling point.  

Yes, you're a dumbass. Bitcoin exists not at the mercy of some gov't, bitcoin exists despite gov't or malicious actors.

Simple example for you: Alice wants to send money to Bob, but China won't allow it. China owns 90 percent of hash power so China is able to delay the transaction for nine out of ten blocks, but eventually the transaction goes through and Bob gets paid. It took 90 minutes instead of 10 minutes but still 3 days faster than bank ( actually, China controls 100% of bank, so... Yeah, that's censorship resistance.)

[BlindMayorBitcorn]

interesting! mark friedenbach seems to not like the consensus that was reached today. if he stands as example gmax could also oppose the consensus.

https://np.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/46po4l/we_have_consensus_in_april_we_get_sw_3_months/d074dh7

will they do their own fork now?

I guess I have to change my sig. That was fast.

But regarding the "consensus" document that was posted on medium, no I am not on board with that outcome.

[ImI]

interesting! mark friedenbach seems to not like the consensus that was reached today. if he stands as example gmax could also oppose the consensus.

https://np.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/46po4l/we_have_consensus_in_april_we_get_sw_3_months/d074dh7

will they do their own fork now?

I guess I have to change my sig. That was fast.

But regarding the "consensus" document that was posted on medium, no I am not on board with that outcome.

i think we can slowly slowly understand why this whole mess could evolve to the point we were experiencing. some of those devs seem to be little ballerinas...

[ChartBuddy]

Coin



Explanation

[billyjoeallen]

So your response is to call me a dumbass? That doesn't seem like a real answer. Do you have a logical answer to my concerns?  Does anybody?

There is a difference between Bitcoin being uncensored and being censorship resistant. We are currently uncensored, but at the mercy of a government that will not allow banks in that country to even hold bitcoin accounts or allow their citizens to do anything with this currency except speculate on it.  This is not exactly a huge selling point.  

Yes, you're a dumbass. Bitcoin exists not at the mercy of some gov't, bitcoin exists despite gov't or malicious actors.

Simple example for you: Alice wants to send money to Bob, but China won't allow it. China owns 90 percent of hash power so China is able to delay the transaction for nine out of ten blocks, but eventually the transaction goes through and Bob gets paid. It took 90 minutes instead of 10 minutes but still 3 days faster than bank ( actually, China controls 100% of bank, so... Yeah, that's censorship resistance.)

I see that, but that's not my concern. Someone with >50% hashpower can double spend. or tripple spend, or senf the same BTC to 12 different exchanges and sell it, crashing the price to pennies while still mining NEW bitcoins which they spend twelve times keeping the price there.

We can always pick a point in the past where there is concensus that a double spend hasn't happened yet and freeze the blockchain there until we fix the double spending problem.  I agree with that. What I don't think you are considering is that the fix may take months to get everyone to agree on the same fix and implement it IF it can be done at all.  In the mean time, your "store of value" plummets to the purchasing power of bellybutton lint. 

We would need:
Protocol change
hardware
code
agreement

You could be right. I may be a dumbass. If I am, someone please tell me why.

[BlindMayorBitcorn]

So your response is to call me a dumbass? That doesn't seem like a real answer. Do you have a logical answer to my concerns?  Does anybody?

There is a difference between Bitcoin being uncensored and being censorship resistant. We are currently uncensored, but at the mercy of a government that will not allow banks in that country to even hold bitcoin accounts or allow their citizens to do anything with this currency except speculate on it.  This is not exactly a huge selling point.  

Yes, you're a dumbass. Bitcoin exists not at the mercy of some gov't, bitcoin exists despite gov't or malicious actors.

Simple example for you: Alice wants to send money to Bob, but China won't allow it. China owns 90 percent of hash power so China is able to delay the transaction for nine out of ten blocks, but eventually the transaction goes through and Bob gets paid. It took 90 minutes instead of 10 minutes but still 3 days faster than bank ( actually, China controls 100% of bank, so... Yeah, that's censorship resistance.)

I see that, but that's not my concern. Someone with >50% hashpower can double spend. or tripple spend, or senf the same BTC to 12 different exchanges and sell it, crashing the price to pennies while still mining NEW bitcoins which they spend twelve times keeping the price there.

We can always pick a point in the past where there is concensus that a double spend hasn't happened yet and freeze the blockchain there until we fix the double spending problem.  I agree with that. What I don't think you are considering is that the fix may take months to get everyone to agree on the same fix and implement it IF it can be done at all.  In the mean time, your "store of value" plummets to the purchasing power of bellybutton lint. 

We would need:
Protocol change
hardware
code
agreement

You could be right. I may be a dumbass. If I am, someone please tell me why.

Marcus can probably call you a dumbass if you wait around long enough. But he probably won't have time to explain why.

[adamstgBit]

billyjoeallen is high on fiat. ( oh wait he shorted not sold )

[blunderer]

So your response is to call me a dumbass? That doesn't seem like a real answer. Do you have a logical answer to my concerns?  Does anybody?

There is a difference between Bitcoin being uncensored and being censorship resistant. We are currently uncensored, but at the mercy of a government that will not allow banks in that country to even hold bitcoin accounts or allow their citizens to do anything with this currency except speculate on it.  This is not exactly a huge selling point.  

Yes, you're a dumbass. Bitcoin exists not at the mercy of some gov't, bitcoin exists despite gov't or malicious actors.

Simple example for you: Alice wants to send money to Bob, but China won't allow it. China owns 90 percent of hash power so China is able to delay the transaction for nine out of ten blocks, but eventually the transaction goes through and Bob gets paid. It took 90 minutes instead of 10 minutes but still 3 days faster than bank ( actually, China controls 100% of bank, so... Yeah, that's censorship resistance.)

Wait, didn't you say Alice wanted to send money to Bob? How did the conversation switch to Bitcoin
P.S. No, you won't solve a block in 90 minutes with 10% of the hashing power. If the other 90% didn't exist (and you started with a valid block), you might (though good luck to Alice getting her TX included in the solved block lol).

[ImI]

billyjoeallen is high on fiat. ( oh wait he shorted not sold )

maybe he is right. friedenbach already stood against the HF-consensus. maxwell is known to be a diva, he could join him and prolong this little nerd-fight.

[billyjoeallen]

billyjoeallen is high on fiat. ( oh wait he shorted not sold )

My short is a hedge. I'm longer on bitcoin that almost everybody here, and I am very uncomfortable with that.

[shmadz]

So your response is to call me a dumbass? That doesn't seem like a real answer. Do you have a logical answer to my concerns?  Does anybody?

There is a difference between Bitcoin being uncensored and being censorship resistant. We are currently uncensored, but at the mercy of a government that will not allow banks in that country to even hold bitcoin accounts or allow their citizens to do anything with this currency except speculate on it.  This is not exactly a huge selling point.  

Yes, you're a dumbass. Bitcoin exists not at the mercy of some gov't, bitcoin exists despite gov't or malicious actors.

Simple example for you: Alice wants to send money to Bob, but China won't allow it. China owns 90 percent of hash power so China is able to delay the transaction for nine out of ten blocks, but eventually the transaction goes through and Bob gets paid. It took 90 minutes instead of 10 minutes but still 3 days faster than bank ( actually, China controls 100% of bank, so... Yeah, that's censorship resistance.)

I see that, but that's not my concern. Someone with >50% hashpower can double spend. or tripple spend, or senf the same BTC to 12 different exchanges and sell it, crashing the price to pennies while still mining NEW bitcoins which they spend twelve times keeping the price there.

You can only double-spend your own coins (second time I told you this) exchanges typically require ass'y least 3 confirmations,  which means at 50% you'd essentially need to win 4 coin flips in a row  (3 to trick the exchange and the 4th to double-spend the coins) - which means you would only succeed in this attack 6.25 % of the time. Also, if this type of attack became common, exchanges would start to simply wait for 4,5,6 transactions or more...

We can always pick a point in the past where there is concensus that a double spend hasn't happened yet and freeze the blockchain there until we fix the double spending problem.  I agree with that. What I don't think you are considering is that the fix may take months to get everyone to agree on the same fix and implement it IF it can be done at all.  In the mean time, your "store of value" plummets to the purchasing power of bellybutton lint. 

We would need:
Protocol change
hardware
code
agreement

You could be right. I may be a dumbass. If I am, someone please tell me why.

You know what? You might be slow to pick this up, but you're not nearly as ignorant or rude as BJA. I think Marcus was right. I'm sorry I called you a dumbass, but that's what you get when you buy a dumbasses account. hope you didn't pay too much.

[JayJuanGee]

billyjoeallen is high on fiat. ( oh wait he shorted not sold )

My short is a hedge. I'm longer on bitcoin that almost everybody here, and I am very uncomfortable with that.

Yeah, yeah, yeah...


Why don't you give some specifics?


You keep making so many claims without specifics, and then comparing yourself to others.

so what?  Each of us have our individual situations, and we invest according to a variety of factors (hopefully tailored to our individual situations).

Not too many people get into specifics of their holdings, so it would be difficult for you to say that you are more long than a variety of people.  What is it?

70% long?    or some other approximate number.  Give us something, if you want to be credible in such a claim that you are more long or whatever way better than others... blah blah blah.

[adamstgBit]

billyjoeallen is high on fiat. ( oh wait he shorted not sold )

maybe he is right. friedenbach already stood against the HF-consensus. maxwell is known to be a diva, he could join him and prolong this little nerd-fight.

4MB is an awesome deal,  i can't wait to see how poeple react to some diva refusing this agreement, while proposing a much worst proposal. another proposal will need to be trailered to a specific group to gain any support over this 4MB proposal, at which point it becomes obvious they are not looking for consensus but merely like to make noise.
beside its not like we haven't heard his objections 100X before.
let him repeat himself one more time, with feeling!
i dont mind.

[shmadz]

billyjoeallen is high on fiat. ( oh wait he shorted not sold )

I'm pretty sure BJA must have gotten cleaned out on that short and sold his account to recoup the loss.

He and I have been extremely rude to each other in the past, not just me actually, here's a sample of the old bja,

- Do I have to fucking spell it out? I'll try to use small words so you morons can understand.
- What is most unpleasant to deal with is stupid people who don't know they're stupid.
- It wasn't an accident that I got in in 2011 and you didn't. I'm smarter than you.

That's actually three sentences from the same post! Compare with today:

"You could be right. I may be a dumbass. If I am, someone please tell me why."

When did bja ever admit to being wrong? Or ask to be corrected?

Just saying, pretty sure that's not the same guy.

[JayJuanGee]

billyjoeallen is high on fiat. ( oh wait he shorted not sold )

By the way Adam... I don't mind moving some semblance of our other conversation to the thread...

I mean... really, in the past several weeks, volume has been fairly average, and possibly it has picked up a bit in the past few days... but really, it remains fairly average (yet maybe a bit above average for the weekend).

Concerning the further upward price movement.... I remain a bit unclear about which way prices are going to go...


I mean surely there has not been much volume to push prices up, but there may be some signalling that will allow further upward movement.. and maybe our new channel is now between $415 and $470... with the extreme ups and downs a bit more difficult to achieve rather than the possibility that we could stay in a $430 to $445 range over the remainder of the weekend.. maybe until Tuesday? 

Yeah.. I'm really all over the place speculating in this speculation thread.