Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[harrymmmm]

What is SUPPOSED to happen according to economic theory is that as quantity of money creation decreases (halvings), velocity of money (transactions) is supposed to go up to compensate, maintaining the balance of MV=PQ.  This clearly cannot happen if scaling is slower than halvings.  

Somebody please tell me the error of my thinking, or a slow liquidation becomes a serious consideration.  

1) They don't effect the velocity (v). They effect the quantity (M).  So because MV=PQ, a decrease in M MUST be compensated by a proportional increase in V in order for the equation to balance out. If it doesn't, then either price or quantity (or both) on the other side must adjust.

ok. I see where you're going wrong.

The equation of exchange is a real identity. So you can actually put anything you like in for those variables, but when you do, you get a certain interpretation of the rest.
In your first reference to it above, you used the money supply creation rate instead of the money supply. As a result, you're looking at a strange definition of 'velocity'. Yours is something like 'average number of transactions per CREATED money unit per unit time' - that's just plain weird.
In the second reference you made above, you used a more normal M which gives a meaningful 'velocity' to discuss. But in this reference, you've continued the wrong idea about M from the first reference. There's no decrease in M as a result of halvings.

Ok, that makes sense. Thank you. So let's look at M as meaning the full 21 million bitcoins ever to be mined. M is constant, but as we approach this limit, we also approach the V limit of 1GB blocks or whatever.  At some point in the future around 2040 at the latest, there will be no more real movement on the left hand side of the equation, right?

That's a limit on Q, not V.
What would happen in that scenario is that since the transaction rate (Q) is limited, the transaction sizes (P) would need to increase. That results in V increasing on the left (since you decided M was constant) to keep the identity.

It's interesting to look carefully at these kinds of limits. I've always thought that's why economic models break down (apart from stupidity of course)

[1714106594]

1714106594

[GGALINff]

Confuciuos say haters going to hate
and short term thinking for short dick


going higher long term

[adamstgBit]

doesn't it kinda feel like this when you buy these dips, only the tank doesn't stop, treads don't get jammed and our steel balls get flaten  

To me things are looking good. Correction back to $421. No problem.

It's not going back to $365.15 I don't think. Indicators are in good nick, the 4, 6 and 12 hours charts need to work through their corrections which may take a few days to a couple of weeks. If they do that in a reasonably orderly manner (like staying above say $400, worst case odd dip to $380-90) then the market will be in a very strong position to finally traverse the great GORF.

Keep your eye on the 12-hour moving averages and moving average convergeance-divergeance which will inform the behaviour of the lower order ranges. If the MACD histogram puts in a clear bar early on in the red zone then we're looking at the optimistic end of things. But if it digs with solid reds for several days then we could be looking at a failed breakout.

TA aside, i think it still looks good because the "conesens" looks like it'll hold up. I saw a comment from Gavin somewhere today saying somthing along the lines of "Classic will continue to be compatible with Core as they move forward with their plan", was i dreaming? idk.

I think a lot of poeple are thinking this consensus, isn't a consensus, because of a few loud morons ( ex Coinbase saying " we want 2MB and Then segwit , and not the other way around! ")  which Makes it seem as tho this consensus will fall apart.

this is what this drop is about. but now it's over. now even these mistaken views have been priced in. I took advantage of the sellers today.

[billyjoeallen]

doesn't it kinda feel like this when you buy these dips, only the tank doesn't stop, treads don't get jammed and our steel balls get flaten  

To me things are looking good. Correction back to $421. No problem.

It's not going back to $365.15 I don't think. Indicators are in good nick, the 4, 6 and 12 hours charts need to work through their corrections which may take a few days to a couple of weeks. If they do that in a reasonably orderly manner (like staying above say $400, worst case odd dip to $380-90) then the market will be in a very strong position to finally traverse the great GORF.

Keep your eye on the 12-hour moving averages and moving average convergeance-divergeance which will inform the behaviour of the lower order ranges. If the MACD histogram puts in a clear bar early on in the red zone then we're looking at the optimistic end of things. But if it digs with solid reds for several days then we could be looking at a failed breakout.

You may be right, depending on a few variables.
1) that the pump wasn't based on a belief that miners and Core have a marriage and not just an alliance based on temporarily aligned interests. I think this is probably true.
2) That the pump wasn't/isn't a well-coordinated hype/manipulation from people who are just looking for a permanent way out (like possibly the Silk Road auction pump) I think this is true
3) That the inevitable shake-up either within Core or between Core and the miners won't cause serious dumpage at least as big as recent pumpage. I think this is fairy dust and unicorn poop.

Regardless of any of this, I want out. I'd like to get out at the best price, but in hindsight that was $1100 27 months ago. The problem is POW and how it can only lead to continued Chinese dominance of mining and loss of censorship resistance. Cheap electricity and labor give the Chinese a mining advantage under any POW scenario for the foreseeable future.   

The miners are at Core's Mercy. The miners are at the ChiCom's mercy. Overdeveloped mining in China is producing negative security returns. Fixing that if it is even possible will be correlated with a crash ahuluva lot bigger than a $30 dip. 

[ChartBuddy]

Coin



Explanation

[billyjoeallen]

TA aside, i think it still looks good because the "conesens" looks like it'll hold up. I saw a comment from Gavin somewhere today saying somthing along the lines of "Classic will continue to be compatible with Core as they move forward with their plan", was i dreaming? idk.

I think a lot of poeple are thinking this consensus, isn't a consensus, because of a few loud morons ( ex Coinbase saying " we want 2MB and Then segwit , and not the other way around! ")  which Makes it seem as tho this consensus will fall apart.

this is what this drop is about. but now it's over. now even these mistaken views have been priced in. I took advantage of the sellers today.

Core's consensus rules give loud morons veto power.

[hdbuck]

TA aside, i think it still looks good because the "conesens" looks like it'll hold up. I saw a comment from Gavin somewhere today saying somthing along the lines of "Classic will continue to be compatible with Core as they move forward with their plan", was i dreaming? idk.

I think a lot of poeple are thinking this consensus, isn't a consensus, because of a few loud morons ( ex Coinbase saying " we want 2MB and Then segwit , and not the other way around! ")  which Makes it seem as tho this consensus will fall apart.

this is what this drop is about. but now it's over. now even these mistaken views have been priced in. I took advantage of the sellers today.

Core's consensus rules give loud morons veto power.

It is Bitcoin consensus rule you moron.

Neither Core nor Classic nor Blockstream nor Obama can do anything about it.

[marcus_of_augustus]

looks like the blunderer, bargainbin billyjoeallen platoon is on patrol again with the usual boring shit-storm of FUD and BS ... yawn, i'll come back when the shit-stirrers lay down their green berets

[Gyrsur]

SATOSHI ROUNDTABLE II – PRIVATE BLOCKCHAIN RETREAT
Feb 26-28, 2016

[conspirosphere.tk]

looks like a buy:

[rebuilder]

Hey adam - don't like NLC's constant trolling? Remember how, when you made this thread, you turned self-moderation on?

[billyjoeallen]

TA aside, i think it still looks good because the "conesens" looks like it'll hold up. I saw a comment from Gavin somewhere today saying somthing along the lines of "Classic will continue to be compatible with Core as they move forward with their plan", was i dreaming? idk.

I think a lot of poeple are thinking this consensus, isn't a consensus, because of a few loud morons ( ex Coinbase saying " we want 2MB and Then segwit , and not the other way around! ")  which Makes it seem as tho this consensus will fall apart.

this is what this drop is about. but now it's over. now even these mistaken views have been priced in. I took advantage of the sellers today.

Core's consensus rules give loud morons veto power.

It is Bitcoin consensus rule you moron.

Neither Core nor Classic nor Blockstream nor Obama can do anything about it.

So you admit it gives loud moron's veto power then. Ok, we agree on something.

[adamstgBit]

http://satoshiroundtable.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/12/2a.jpg
 
poor kid, hes gonna get FUCKED.

[blunderer]

SATOSHI ROUNDTABLE II – PRIVATE BLOCKCHAIN RETREAT
Feb 26-28, 2016

Satoshi's Last Supper: The Occident Redux

[adamstgBit]

Hey adam - don't like NLC's constant trolling? Remember how, when you made this thread, you turned self-moderation on?

I was shooting for having him moderate himself.

[AlexGR]

looks like a buy:

Treated like real money = you can deposit them on a bank so that they can give you negative interest on your bitcoins

[infofront]

http://satoshiroundtable.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/12/2a.jpg
 
poor kid, hes gonna get FUCKED.

Gotta admit, that broad is pretty bangin' though.

[adamstgBit]

http://satoshiroundtable.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/12/2a.jpg
 
poor kid, hes gonna get FUCKED.

Gotta admit, that broad is pretty bangin' though.

thats why he's in deep shit!
i bet she liked his T-shirt.

[rebuilder]

Hey adam - don't like NLC's constant trolling? Remember how, when you made this thread, you turned self-moderation on?

I was shooting for having him moderate himself.

That would be a worryingly abnormal development.

[JayJuanGee]

http://satoshiroundtable.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/12/2a.jpg
 
poor kid, hes gonna get FUCKED.

He could only be so lucky, with all of those Ethereum pump and dump profits, he deserves a bit of a reward, no?

Yet, I am not sure whether his skinny bones could handle such, and he may get r3kt