Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ahpku]

I need ideas

what kind of indicators would be useful to you for bitcoin trading from the shill drama?

shill post vs total posts on the board?

doing a kind of shill posting analyzing tool

^Would be a fine addition to my Eliot Harmonic Resonance Integrator & Stand-Alone Technical Analyzer.
How much?

[1715299158]

1715299158

[1715299158]

1715299158

[Fatman3001]

I need ideas

what kind of indicators would be useful to you for bitcoin trading from the shill drama?

shill post vs total posts on the board?

doing a kind of shill posting analyzing tool

Idk, but if idiot posts came into play you just moved the needle.

[BlindMayorBitcorn]

blocks are completely full
every single one
my 1cent fee tx has yet to be mined

They are full precisely because almost all near-zero fee transactions are currently included.

Are all zero fee transactions included in Litecoin, Dash, monero, etherium?  Bitcoin is losing market share because competitors are underpricing us. 

Just open a block explorer and you'll see LTC and DASH has like 4-5-6 tx/block, monero is at 0-1.

BTC does like 2000 txs/block.

You are either gaining market share or you are losing it. It doesn't matter how far of a lead you have. if your competitor is picking up speed and you are slowing down, in a long enough race, you will lose.

no coin has had the heat thrown at it that bitcoin has ... if any of them get big enough to warrant more than a 'meh' then the blow torch comes on them.

I want to see the BS of V. Buterin explode into a full-blown internet rage war, PoS ethereum is going to encourage some truly sick politicking, you thought PoW chinese miners was an 'issue'?

No coin...yet. We seem to be talking past each other. Look, there can be only one "most marketable commodity" by definition. Another word for that term is "money".  In order for something to be marketable, you have to be able to bring it to market. To exchange it.  NO cryptocoin is money yet, but no cryptocoin will ever become money if it can't be exchangeable in the frequencies money needs to be exchanged.

If Etherium has more utility due to smart contracts, turing completeness or whatever, it will gain market share faster. PoS has serious problems and I've always said that, but it turns our PoW also has a serious problem: Chinese electricity and labor cost advantages means ANY PoW plan may result in the same loss of censorship resistance Bitcoin is experiencing with mining overdevelopment and concentration in one political jurisdiction.

 

Caspar? POS? Vitalik's a cowboy. Will any of that even blend?

If Ethereum manages to prove that PoS is safe on a large scale, Bitcoin might have to move to PoS as well.

Have there been any examples of PoS coins running in a true decentralized way?

Maybe Nxt, Peercoin certainly isn't. But those tiny shitcoins don't prove much.

It needs to be proven to handle large economic actors as well as a large number of users and large numbers of bad actors.

Ethereum is interesting in that it's not a currency, so a double spend or similar won't fundamentally harm its raison d'être.

That way they can afford to risk running an unproven technology like this, whereas Bitcoin can't.

"The foundation and its subsidiaries alone simply do not have the manpower to push the entirety of this vision through to its ultimate completion, including proof-of-stake driven scalable blockchains, seamlessly integrated distributed hash tables, programming languages with formal verification systems backed by state-of-the-art theorem provers and dozens of categories of middleware, all by itself; although the foundation and its subsidiaries can, and will, continue to be the primary driver of technology at the core, a highly community-driven model is necessary and essential, both to help the Ethereum ecosystem maximally grow and flourish and to establish Ethereum as a decentralized project which is ultimately owned by all of humanity, and not any one group."

IDK. Seems like a pretty tall order.

https://blog.ethereum.org/2015/09/28/the-evolution-of-ethereum/

[watashi-kokoto]

^Would be a fine addition to my Eliot Harmonic Resonance Integrator & Stand-Alone Technical Analyzer.
How much?

What how much ? I have absolutely no idea what to implement so you pay me with the ideas and I'll try to do my best.

I doing it for bitcoin in general if it helps to someone, that would be nice.

I have now all the recent posts from r/btc (a major shill nest) loaded.
Total 1202 threads 11 318 posts in my database.

so everyone, have tell me what the fuck you need

EDIT:
 the simplest thing i can do for you is the frequency of individual words in posts

[Fatman3001]

blocks are completely full
every single one
my 1cent fee tx has yet to be mined

They are full precisely because almost all near-zero fee transactions are currently included.

Are all zero fee transactions included in Litecoin, Dash, monero, etherium?  Bitcoin is losing market share because competitors are underpricing us. 

Just open a block explorer and you'll see LTC and DASH has like 4-5-6 tx/block, monero is at 0-1.

BTC does like 2000 txs/block.

You are either gaining market share or you are losing it. It doesn't matter how far of a lead you have. if your competitor is picking up speed and you are slowing down, in a long enough race, you will lose.

no coin has had the heat thrown at it that bitcoin has ... if any of them get big enough to warrant more than a 'meh' then the blow torch comes on them.

I want to see the BS of V. Buterin explode into a full-blown internet rage war, PoS ethereum is going to encourage some truly sick politicking, you thought PoW chinese miners was an 'issue'?

No coin...yet. We seem to be talking past each other. Look, there can be only one "most marketable commodity" by definition. Another word for that term is "money".  In order for something to be marketable, you have to be able to bring it to market. To exchange it.  NO cryptocoin is money yet, but no cryptocoin will ever become money if it can't be exchangeable in the frequencies money needs to be exchanged.

If Etherium has more utility due to smart contracts, turing completeness or whatever, it will gain market share faster. PoS has serious problems and I've always said that, but it turns our PoW also has a serious problem: Chinese electricity and labor cost advantages means ANY PoW plan may result in the same loss of censorship resistance Bitcoin is experiencing with mining overdevelopment and concentration in one political jurisdiction.

 

Caspar? POS? Vitalik's a cowboy. Will any of that even blend?

If Ethereum manages to prove that PoS is safe on a large scale, Bitcoin might have to move to PoS as well.

Have there been any examples of PoS coins running in a true decentralized way?

Maybe Nxt, Peercoin certainly isn't. But those tiny shitcoins don't prove much.

It needs to be proven to handle large economic actors as well as a large number of users and large numbers of bad actors.

Ethereum is interesting in that it's not a currency, so a double spend or similar won't fundamentally harm its raison d'être.

That way they can afford to risk running an unproven technology like this, whereas Bitcoin can't.

"The foundation and its subsidiaries alone simply do not have the manpower to push the entirety of this vision through to its ultimate completion, including proof-of-stake driven scalable blockchains, seamlessly integrated distributed hash tables, programming languages with formal verification systems backed by state-of-the-art theorem provers and dozens of categories of middleware, all by itself; although the foundation and its subsidiaries can, and will, continue to be the primary driver of technology at the core, a highly community-driven model is necessary and essential, both to help the Ethereum ecosystem maximally grow and flourish and to establish Ethereum as a decentralized project which is ultimately owned by all of humanity, and not any one group."

IDK. Seems like a pretty tall order.

https://blog.ethereum.org/2015/09/28/the-evolution-of-ethereum/

Vit B has been selling a large portion of their eth holdings otc during this rally so I think things have changed a bit.

[ahpku]

^Would be a fine addition to my Eliot Harmonic Resonance Integrator & Stand-Alone Technical Analyzer.
How much?

What how much ? I have absolutely no idea what to implement so you pay me ...

That's great!  Cryptoanalitic instrumentation is a rewarding, fast-paced field of paradigm-shifting innovation.
How much?

[watashi-kokoto]

Happy Block 400 000 !!!

[ChartBuddy]

Coin



Explanation

[bargainbin]

 

[BlindMayorBitcorn]

http://bluematt.bitcoin.ninja/2016/01/14/decentralization/

[billyjoeallen]

I can't believe I even have to say this but I do not hate the Chinese. I hate single party currency-manipulating governments with a sketchy understanding and respect for property rights and free speech.

Canadians, OTOH...

Plaid-wearing moosehumpers.

what about mexicans ??

I love beautiful young Mexican Girls. Especially my daughter.

[adamstgBit]

I can't believe I even have to say this but I do not hate the Chinese. I hate single party currency-manipulating governments with a sketchy understanding and respect for property rights and free speech.

Canadians, OTOH...

Plaid-wearing moosehumpers.

what about mexicans ??

I love beautiful young Mexican Girls. Especially my daughter.

it's starting to make sense why the future of bitcoin matters to you.

[Andre#]

http://bluematt.bitcoin.ninja/2016/01/14/decentralization/

Thanks, I missed it earlier. Very good write up.

Why Bitcoin's Decentralization Matters

Bitcoiners, from Bitcoin Core developers to long-time Bitcoin enthusiasts to recent /r/Bitcoin discoverers, love to talk about how Bitcoin’s decentralization is its ultimate feature. Rarely, however, do you see anyone explain why decentralization matters - surely it’s an interesting property from a computer science perspective, but why should consumers, businesses or investors care? This post is an attempt to write out why decentralization is foundational to Bitcoin’s utility and, somewhat more importantly, set up future posts talking about when it isn’t.

[ChartBuddy]

Coin



Explanation

[bargainbin]

[adamstgBit]

http://bluematt.bitcoin.ninja/2016/01/14/decentralization/

Thanks, I missed it earlier. Very good write up.

Why Bitcoin's Decentralization Matters

Bitcoiners, from Bitcoin Core developers to long-time Bitcoin enthusiasts to recent /r/Bitcoin discoverers, love to talk about how Bitcoin’s decentralization is its ultimate feature. Rarely, however, do you see anyone explain why decentralization matters - surely it’s an interesting property from a computer science perspective, but why should consumers, businesses or investors care? This post is an attempt to write out why decentralization is foundational to Bitcoin’s utility and, somewhat more importantly, set up future posts talking about when it isn’t.

https://twitter.com/onemorepeter/status/702807258003017728

[JayJuanGee]

i just send 1$ to 1LBHYYEbd8eqrfi9PiSEkj35e9vM3iZEFm with a 1cent fee

lets see what happens...

sending it now...

https://blockchain.info/address/1LBHYYEbd8eqrfi9PiSEkj35e9vM3iZEFm

if this dont work ill send it with a 5cent fee.

current block height 399867

Damn, 1 cent fee is 1% it's far too much already!
I usually pay a 0.1% fee and it goes in the first blocks!

Fees go per kilobytes used in the blockchain, not per amount sent. The blockchain doesn't care if you send 0.01 btc or 10 btc - only about how much space is used by the transaction.

Well. Logical I suppose. But how do you know the size of your transaction?

side note, my TX is the min size ~256bytes

block height 399870

0 confirmations

I have begun this experiment too, with transferring approximately $1 (although I think that the same fee will pretty much apply for a $100 or $1,000.

I sent it 3 times, and I adjusted the fee to be either .0001 BTC per kilobyte ($.04 fee), .000025 per kilobyte ($.01 fee) and .00001 per kilobyte ($.004 fee).


The higher two showed up on the receiving end without confirmations within a couple of minutes of my sending them; however the lowest one, which is essentially nearly no fees, has not yet even shown up on the other end, so far, after 22 minutes.  

I will attempt to check the extent of the update, every 30 minutes in order to verify whether they have confirmations.

So far only one of my three transactions have gone through (listed below from higher fee to lower fee).  The first transaction included the standard fees, and the second two included lower than the standard fees.

1)  $1.06  (.0025  BTC)        sent 6 hours ago            Fee .0001 btc ($.04)  (.0001 BTC per kilobyte)  - Immediately showed up on receiving end, and 3 confirmations and available for use after 1 hour and 12 minutes.

2) $1.20 (.002855 BTC)        sent 6 hours ago            Fee .000025 btc ($.01) (.000025 BTC per kilobyte)   - Immediately showed up on receiving end, and so far 0 confirmations and after 5 hours disappeared from receiving end

3) $1       (.00236  BTC)        sent 6 hours ago            Fee .00001 btc ($.004) (.00001 BTC per kilobyte)   - So far has not shown up on receiving end and 0 confirmations

I conclude that including the standard fees helps to ensure that your transaction goes through in a timely manner.  Maybe I will provide another update, later, if these last two transactions ever go through?
 

Finally, I got the results of all three of my low quantity bitcoin/blockchain transactions of a little over $1.  
Each of these transactions were sent about 11 hours ago, via blockchain.info wallet to a local bitcoins wallet.

Results as follows from highest to lowest fees:

1)  Amount sent  $1.06  (.0025  BTC)       I Manually added Fee .0001 BTC ($.04) (.0001 BTC per kilobyte)  (fee % = 3.77358%)
- Immediately viewable on receiving end w 0 confirmations/ available for use (3 confirmations) after 1 hour / 12 minutes.

2)  Amount sent  $1.20 (.002855 BTC)       I Manually added Fee  .000025 BTC ($.01) (.000025 BTC per kilobyte)    (fee % = 0.833333%)
- Immediately viewable on receiving end w 0 confirmations / available for use (3 confirmations) after 7 hours / 11 minutes.

3) Amount sent    $1.00 (.00236  BTC)      I Manually added Fee  .00001 BTC ($.004) (.00001 BTC per kilobyte)  (fee % = 0.4%)
- Was never viewable on receiving end until after completely received / available for use (3 confirmations) after 9 hours / 21 minutes.


I would consider each of these three transaction to be near micro transactions, and the fastest one was a bit over an hour with nearly a 4% fee added and the slowest low fee one (was nearly free, and probably I could have eliminated the fee completely) of less than a 0.4% fee was still finalized and completely and irreversibly settled in less than 10 hours.  During a time that the blocks were supposedly nearly full all day (and blockchain.info charts were showing an average blocksize of about 85% full - which is about the highest ever for the whole history of bitcoin (interesting given the likely additional spam being pumped into the blockchain with various free transactions on an ongoing basis)......

Yes, a bit nerve racking to wait for final confirmation for nearly half a day and to be able to use the coins, but still pretty decent settlement and manageable for such a low cost and low amount transactions, no?  

Surely, there are some downsides to irreversibility and owning mistakes (if they are made); however, even during this contentious "full blocks" period, these results seem to be pretty decent for beating the fees and the speed of the settlements of my bank transactions, with 24/7 useage and also international (maybe even intergalactical, once communication channels are improved?).

awesome... if i want to buy a starbucks with bitcoin it will take between one hour and ten hours .... i was really starting to worry about that. ... because i think waiting any more than ten hours to get my coffee is way to excessive.....

10 hours is relatively fast for nearly free decentralized final settlement.... and at this point the state of bitcoin's speed and price is in an interim status, with more developments and solutions on the way.

Stay tuned, and stop your bullshit spamming/trolling of this thread with your nonsense.


By the way, we all know that completely free and immediate settlement transactions are not on the blockchain at this point, but they remain pretty secure and low priced and not too bad in terms of speed, as I already mentioned and as is shown in my experiment..

[Fatman3001]

http://bluematt.bitcoin.ninja/2016/01/14/decentralization/

Thanks, I missed it earlier. Very good write up.

Why Bitcoin's Decentralization Matters

Bitcoiners, from Bitcoin Core developers to long-time Bitcoin enthusiasts to recent /r/Bitcoin discoverers, love to talk about how Bitcoin’s decentralization is its ultimate feature. Rarely, however, do you see anyone explain why decentralization matters - surely it’s an interesting property from a computer science perspective, but why should consumers, businesses or investors care? This post is an attempt to write out why decentralization is foundational to Bitcoin’s utility and, somewhat more importantly, set up future posts talking about when it isn’t.

https://twitter.com/onemorepeter/status/702807258003017728

That is brilliant, I'll steal that link.

[harrymmmm]

Adam told you it wasn't. Close to a month ago, but don't mention that,
'Course (iirc) he also offered a fix for the issue, but don't mention that.

Yep, better to see if the angry mob can be used to fuck with the price a bit more. /s

if there's an angry mob it's not because of 1 small oversight.
I was and still am perfectly willing to support segwit.
i'm angry because, we had this agreement and now it's falling apart, who's making it fall apart? Blockstream guys...


BTW, has it been confirmed that Blockstream can/have veto the agreement???

Grrr. I had a bad day yesterday. I meant 'peter todd told you', not 'adam told you', of course. Lol.
Sry if that caused confusion in your reply. I'll assume it didn't...

I'm surprised at your mood swings tho. You do seem angry and unreasonable lately.
I see you joining the group who mislead as you did on the image i quoted above. There's a lot of fud here lately ... just thought I'd 'out' something rather obvious.

Maybe you're just angry, impatient, and not checking your facts like you used to.

Re the agreement:
I'm not sure it could be considered a contract in any sense. It was more like a memorandum of understanding, so 'falling apart' isn't that much of a betrayal. If indeed it is even falling apart.

I can understand adam's signature. He's a rep of a company that's guaranteed the employess free speech on the bitcoin topics, so kinda hard to sign off as the company prez. I'm sure he tried to get away with the 'individual' sig, but eventually was obliged to change it to prez. Understandable I think. It was a difficult call and may still cause trouble back at blockstream.

Maaku's comments just reinforce that.

The overall view tho, is that many players signed it, so there's some kind of commitment to modify the roadmap with a decent consideration of a hard fork in some months. That's better than you had (from core devs) before this agreement, right? Previously, there was just a vague mention of a future hard fork to clean up some stuff, rebase segwit's merkle tree, etc.

Not what either side wanted, but better overall than what could have happened.

[blunderer]

http://bluematt.bitcoin.ninja/2016/01/14/decentralization/

Thanks, I missed it earlier. Very good write up.

Why Bitcoin's Decentralization Matters

Bitcoiners, from Bitcoin Core developers to long-time Bitcoin enthusiasts to recent /r/Bitcoin discoverers, love to talk about how Bitcoin’s decentralization is its ultimate feature. Rarely, however, do you see anyone explain why decentralization matters - surely it’s an interesting property from a computer science perspective, but why should consumers, businesses or investors care? This post is an attempt to write out why decentralization is foundational to Bitcoin’s utility ...

...which is to say "being a suitable backbone for LN, hope you didn't buy into the whole Peer-to-Peer Electronic Cash System bullshit lol."