Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[jbreher]

I know the U.S. has suppressed voices of dissent, but in modern times we've had nothing like the Tienanmen Square Massacre.

I'm on board with your main point, but I need to stop you right here.

Waco, anyone? How soon we forget.

[redsn0w]

Is it over guys or is it just the the beginning ?

The four hour moving average just turned negative, meaning the bulls lost the momentum for now. There's no more to read into this than that. 

Thanks for your opinion , I'm still holding few bitcoins and it is very addicting follow the various events (from a speculative point of view).

[adamstgBit]

ops i lost my cool
 


bargainbin...

[billyjoeallen]

I know the U.S. has suppressed voices of dissent, but in modern times we've had nothing like the Tienanmen Square Massacre.

I'm on board with your main point, but I need to stop you right here.

Waco, anyone? How soon we forget.

Waco was a little different.  It wasn't a freedom movement that was crushed. Tiananmen Square is right in the middle of everything. Nobody has ever said that about Waco. There is no question that is was government thuggery, but like I said, there are different levels of Statist evil. There was never any danger of The Branch Davidians becoming a major religion and political force. The Feds targeted them because they could, like bullies do.  Occupy WallStreet would be a better comparison and it was broken up with billy clubs, not tanks.

I won't ever forget Waco.  We need decentralized mining not because the U.S. is more free than China (that is irrelevant even if true.) We need decentralized mining so no government anywhere can censor our transactions.  The problem is I don't how how it is possible to decentralize mining given China's electricity and labor cost advantage and  proximity to chip makers.  Every ASIC mining in China over 49.9% actually hurts network security.

[bargainbin]

I know the U.S. has suppressed voices of dissent, but in modern times we've had nothing like the Tienanmen Square Massacre.

I'm on board with your main point, but I need to stop you right here.

Waco, anyone? How soon we forget.

Waco ('93)
Fatalities: 76
Engaged feds in a firefight; strong evidence BD wanted apocalypse/Koresh prophesies to be fulfilled; set the fire which caused the deaths.

Tiananmen Square ('89)
Fatalities: from several hundred to thousands
Chance of accidental/self-inflicted: 0 (zero).

Want to keep going?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mass_killings_under_Communist_regimes#People.27s_Republic_of_China

@Adam: don't worry, not taking offense/any of that seriously...
*But still very scairt

[adamstgBit]

I know the U.S. has suppressed voices of dissent, but in modern times we've had nothing like the Tienanmen Square Massacre.

I'm on board with your main point, but I need to stop you right here.

Waco, anyone? How soon we forget.

Waco ('93)
Fatalities: 76
Engaged feds in a firefight; strong evidence BD wanted apocalypse/Koresh prophesies to be fulfilled; set the fire which caused the deaths.

Tiananmen Square ('89)
Fatalities: from several hundred to thousands
Chance of accidental/self-inflicted: 0 (zero).

Want to keep going?

@Adam: don't worry, not taking offense/any of that seriously...
*But still very scairt

don't worry, you pissed off sure... but i'm fairly harmless.
the only person i smack around is my gf because she likes it.

[billyjoeallen]

Do you know where this man is today? Because if you do, you're the only one. He was "disappeared". They guys in those tanks control our network today. Maybe they don't run the mines, but they can take them over any time they want, which the guys who DO run them know damn well. That is not censorship resistance.

Bravest motherfucker I ever saw. Tank commander was probably afraid his treads would get jammed by this guy's steel balls.

[ChartBuddy]

Coin



Explanation

[adamstgBit]

Do you know where this man is today? Because if you do, you're the only one. He was "disappeared". They guys in those tanks control our network today. Maybe they don't run the mines, but they can take them over any time they want, which the guys who DO run them know damn well. That is not censorship resistance.

Bravest motherfucker I ever saw. Tank commander was probably afraid his treads would get jammed by this guy's steel balls.

doesn't it kinda feel like this when you buy these dips, only the tank doesn't stop, treads don't get jammed and our steel balls get flaten  

omfg i sound like NLC. i need leave this place! @_@

[bargainbin]

...
Bravest motherfucker I ever saw. Tank commander was probably afraid his treads would get jammed by this guy's steel balls.

And yet he wouldn't meet up with Adam at that scary gas station.
Makes you think...

[billyjoeallen]

Do you know where this man is today? Because if you do, you're the only one. He was "disappeared". They guys in those tanks control our network today. Maybe they don't run the mines, but they can take them over any time they want, which the guys who DO run them know damn well. That is not censorship resistance.

Bravest motherfucker I ever saw. Tank commander was probably afraid his treads would get jammed by this guy's steel balls.

doesn't it kinda feel like this when you buy these dips, only the tank doesn't stop, treads don't get jammed and our steel balls get flaten  

omfg i sound like NLC. i need leave this place! @_@

You can't hold back the tide either when it's coming in or going out. You have to surf the waves, Brother.

[bargainbin]

^^In that pic, the one guy I'd least want to be is the tank commander. No win.

[toknormal]

doesn't it kinda feel like this when you buy these dips, only the tank doesn't stop, treads don't get jammed and our steel balls get flaten  

To me things are looking good. Correction back to $421. No problem.

It's not going back to $365.15 I don't think. Indicators are in good nick, the 4, 6 and 12 hours charts need to work through their corrections which may take a few days to a couple of weeks. If they do that in a reasonably orderly manner (like staying above say $400, worst case odd dip to $380-90) then the market will be in a very strong position to finally traverse the great GORF.

Keep your eye on the 12-hour moving averages and moving average convergeance-divergeance which will inform the behaviour of the lower order ranges. If the MACD histogram puts in a clear bar early on in the red zone then we're looking at the optimistic end of things. But if it digs with solid reds for several days then we could be looking at a failed breakout.

[Cconvert2G36]

If there is strong community support, the hard-fork activation will likely happen around July 2017.

~not tonight dear...

 

Blockstream is never to be underestimated. They literally didn't move an inch and everyone is circle jerking "the great compromise"... incredible. What a wet noodle the miners turned out to be... so much for that childish delusion I used to hold.

Watching [name redacted to protect the repentant] lose his principles for a $20 $19 $15 $1.93 relief rally was the hardest part. 

GG guys... GG

[harrymmmm]

What is SUPPOSED to happen according to economic theory is that as quantity of money creation decreases (halvings), velocity of money (transactions) is supposed to go up to compensate, maintaining the balance of MV=PQ.  This clearly cannot happen if scaling is slower than halvings.  

Somebody please tell me the error of my thinking, or a slow liquidation becomes a serious consideration.  

1) They don't effect the velocity (v). They effect the quantity (M).  So because MV=PQ, a decrease in M MUST be compensated by a proportional increase in V in order for the equation to balance out. If it doesn't, then either price or quantity (or both) on the other side must adjust.

ok. I see where you're going wrong.

The equation of exchange is a real identity. So you can actually put anything you like in for those variables, but when you do, you get a certain interpretation of the rest.
In your first reference to it above, you used the money supply creation rate instead of the money supply. As a result, you're looking at a strange definition of 'velocity'. Yours is something like 'average number of transactions per CREATED money unit per unit time' - that's just plain weird.
In the second reference you made above, you used a more normal M which gives a meaningful 'velocity' to discuss. But in this reference, you've continued the wrong idea about M from the first reference. There's no decrease in M as a result of halvings.

Ok, that makes sense. Thank you. So let's look at M as meaning the full 21 million bitcoins ever to be mined. M is constant, but as we approach this limit, we also approach the V limit of 1GB blocks or whatever.  At some point in the future around 2040 at the latest, there will be no more real movement on the left hand side of the equation, right?

That's a limit on Q, not V.
What would happen in that scenario is that since the transaction rate (Q) is limited, the transaction sizes (P) would need to increase. That results in V increasing on the left (since you decided M was constant) to keep the identity.

It's interesting to look carefully at these kinds of limits. I've always thought that's why economic models break down (apart from stupidity of course)

[GGALINff]

Confuciuos say haters going to hate
and short term thinking for short dick


going higher long term

[adamstgBit]

doesn't it kinda feel like this when you buy these dips, only the tank doesn't stop, treads don't get jammed and our steel balls get flaten  

To me things are looking good. Correction back to $421. No problem.

It's not going back to $365.15 I don't think. Indicators are in good nick, the 4, 6 and 12 hours charts need to work through their corrections which may take a few days to a couple of weeks. If they do that in a reasonably orderly manner (like staying above say $400, worst case odd dip to $380-90) then the market will be in a very strong position to finally traverse the great GORF.

Keep your eye on the 12-hour moving averages and moving average convergeance-divergeance which will inform the behaviour of the lower order ranges. If the MACD histogram puts in a clear bar early on in the red zone then we're looking at the optimistic end of things. But if it digs with solid reds for several days then we could be looking at a failed breakout.

TA aside, i think it still looks good because the "conesens" looks like it'll hold up. I saw a comment from Gavin somewhere today saying somthing along the lines of "Classic will continue to be compatible with Core as they move forward with their plan", was i dreaming? idk.

I think a lot of poeple are thinking this consensus, isn't a consensus, because of a few loud morons ( ex Coinbase saying " we want 2MB and Then segwit , and not the other way around! ")  which Makes it seem as tho this consensus will fall apart.

this is what this drop is about. but now it's over. now even these mistaken views have been priced in. I took advantage of the sellers today.

[billyjoeallen]

doesn't it kinda feel like this when you buy these dips, only the tank doesn't stop, treads don't get jammed and our steel balls get flaten  

To me things are looking good. Correction back to $421. No problem.

It's not going back to $365.15 I don't think. Indicators are in good nick, the 4, 6 and 12 hours charts need to work through their corrections which may take a few days to a couple of weeks. If they do that in a reasonably orderly manner (like staying above say $400, worst case odd dip to $380-90) then the market will be in a very strong position to finally traverse the great GORF.

Keep your eye on the 12-hour moving averages and moving average convergeance-divergeance which will inform the behaviour of the lower order ranges. If the MACD histogram puts in a clear bar early on in the red zone then we're looking at the optimistic end of things. But if it digs with solid reds for several days then we could be looking at a failed breakout.

You may be right, depending on a few variables.
1) that the pump wasn't based on a belief that miners and Core have a marriage and not just an alliance based on temporarily aligned interests. I think this is probably true.
2) That the pump wasn't/isn't a well-coordinated hype/manipulation from people who are just looking for a permanent way out (like possibly the Silk Road auction pump) I think this is true
3) That the inevitable shake-up either within Core or between Core and the miners won't cause serious dumpage at least as big as recent pumpage. I think this is fairy dust and unicorn poop.

Regardless of any of this, I want out. I'd like to get out at the best price, but in hindsight that was $1100 27 months ago. The problem is POW and how it can only lead to continued Chinese dominance of mining and loss of censorship resistance. Cheap electricity and labor give the Chinese a mining advantage under any POW scenario for the foreseeable future.   

The miners are at Core's Mercy. The miners are at the ChiCom's mercy. Overdeveloped mining in China is producing negative security returns. Fixing that if it is even possible will be correlated with a crash ahuluva lot bigger than a $30 dip. 

[ChartBuddy]

Coin



Explanation

[billyjoeallen]

TA aside, i think it still looks good because the "conesens" looks like it'll hold up. I saw a comment from Gavin somewhere today saying somthing along the lines of "Classic will continue to be compatible with Core as they move forward with their plan", was i dreaming? idk.

I think a lot of poeple are thinking this consensus, isn't a consensus, because of a few loud morons ( ex Coinbase saying " we want 2MB and Then segwit , and not the other way around! ")  which Makes it seem as tho this consensus will fall apart.

this is what this drop is about. but now it's over. now even these mistaken views have been priced in. I took advantage of the sellers today.

Core's consensus rules give loud morons veto power.