Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[iCEBREAKER]

Core has a scaling roadmap to make bitcoin scale far beyond what is capable with block increases. Who told you that they consider scaling a bad thing or that a fee market is their first priority?

With fees at 0.00$ to 0.05$, being ~1% of the block reward, there is no meaningful fee market to discuss about. There is definitely a mechanism where you can bypass the queue by a higher fee, and in this sense it is a market, but the volume of this market is so tiny that it doesn't even register compared to what subsidy does. Miners could be mining empty blocks and it wouldn't affect their pocket negatively. That's how insignificant it is.

If devs push for highers fees => "ohhh those fuckers want to exclude the poor guy"
If devs allow for more space/tx abundance at near-zero fees => "ohhh they are idiots, this attracts attacks, it can't work for the long-term sustainability of bitcoin and bitcoin mining" etc etc.
If devs don't interefere => "oh they are sitting on their ass doing nothing and their incompetence has created these problems"

Whatever they do, either way, or whatever they don't do, you can find a reason to attack them. This type of thinking can be evidenced by writings such as BillyJoe's who, a few months ago, was saying "ohhh I don't want to pay higher fees, I bought my right to transact when I bought my coins" and then, when commenting on the Lightning network, he was spreading FUD about how will the miners get paid if the LN can do so many transactions at low fees, and that miners should get more fees, otherwise bitcoin will be in problem etc etc.

Whatever the situation => you can use it to attack the devs. And this is happening all day.

Low fees? Fuck the devs.
High fees? Fuck the devs.
The devs are staying out of the argument? Fuck the devs again.

Fuck the devs, Fuck the devs, Fuck the devs, Fuck the devs, Fuck the devs, Fuck the devs, Fuck the devs, Fuck the devs, Fuck the devs, Fuck the devs, Fuck the devs, Fuck the devs, Fuck the devs, Fuck the devs, Fuck the devs, Fuck the devs, Fuck the devs, Fuck the devs, Fuck the devs, Fuck the devs, Fuck the devs, Fuck the devs, Fuck the devs, Fuck the devs

...all day long...

Why?

Because the issues here are not technical. They have the facade of technical disagreements but at their root, they are a way to undermine confidence and promote a governance coup.

{Applause.gif}

Don't forget:
Devs communicate?  Fuck them for manipulating public opinion.
Devs don't communicate?  Fuck them for ignoring human dignity.

Let's make a list of everyone who has been here long enough to know better, but is nevertheless pushing the false "ZOMG SEGWIT CAUSES CHAIN FORKZ!11!!" narrative in yet another attempt to manufacture panic.

And then you have people like HostFat, who tell people to boycott Core/Blockstream/theymos yet still runs their code and posts on their forums.

[iCEBREAKER]

HOPEFULLY they can get segwit going in time

Anyone bothered to look into that accidental HF it caused on the testnet?

"This is was because people were running old code on testnet. This is a unique issue to testnet since code running there is still in flux. Making consensus breaking changes on testnet is fine. That's what it's for."

https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/48yz3d/segwit_forked_unexpectedly_on_testnet/d0nw7kb

[adamstgBit]

if Core really can deliver segwit and later 2MB alongside a clean / simple to use LN, then they will have done it.

i just have a hard time believing they can make LN useable.

And i find it crazy for them to delay the increase, hurting bitcoin's growth, while banking on unproven tech.

[iCEBREAKER]

holy shit wtf is going on?

https://medium.com/@barmstrong/what-happened-at-the-satoshi-roundtable-6c11a10d8cdf#.pscurkusv

Armstrong speaks --> price retreats

[ChartBuddy]

Coin



Explanation

[bitebits]

lets try again

today i will pay 2 cents....

https://blockchain.info/address/15dSfgqNSAaiTPFtR7jEupen8QYudqdGc3

Estimated Confirmation Time   Within 6 Blocks

6 blocks = 1hour!

1 HOUR!

Don't worry Adam, "there won't be much competition":
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CPiGv7LpRBY&feature=youtu.be&t=127

(News report from 1981 about the Internet)

[bankingbtc]

Coin



Explanation

the price keeps on falling, i hope that soon everything will change and the price will rocket to the sky, also i guess that ethereum price rise is just some kind of a pump and bitcoin is the only crypto that has the bright future

[adamstgBit]

holy shit wtf is going on?

https://medium.com/@barmstrong/what-happened-at-the-satoshi-roundtable-6c11a10d8cdf#.pscurkusv

Armstrong speaks --> price retreats

yes i do believe this is the reason behind price dropping
there appears to be much disagreement still, and this has poeple on edge...
Armstrong wants 2MB now and segwit later, Core wants segwit now and 2MB later.
it seems silly to push the issues so much on a disagreement about the time frame in which these changes will be rolled out.
besides it's been speculated that activating a HF will take longer then releasing segwit's soft fork.
so in a way cores road map is the fastest root to getting more blocksapce ( if they are able to deliver segwit on time... )

[arklan]

Coin



Explanation

the price keeps on falling, i hope that soon everything will change and the price will rocket to the sky, also i guess that ethereum price rise is just some kind of a pump and bitcoin is the only crypto that has the bright future

actually, it seems as though the most recent drop is over and the price is actually climbing again. looking at the 1 hour stamp chart, it's been averaging an increase the past few hours.

[aminorex]

i'm canadian so i couldn't calculate the fee properly.

You're making my sides hurt dude.

[BlindMayorBitcorn]

We need unanimous consensus with this fucking idiot!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!

Geeeez!!! I can't believe I invested money in this shit!!! GOD DAMN!!!!

He's never concealed who or what turns him. We've all got our wee idiosyncrasies.

Wee?

One of the two devs at the wheel of this shitshow has renounced science!

To be fair, I doubt he's renounced all of science. Just the last 5 or 6 centuries, probably. The bunk ages.

[Patel]

Core has a scaling roadmap to make bitcoin scale far beyond what is capable with block increases. Who told you that they consider scaling a bad thing or that a fee market is their first priority?

With fees at 0.00$ to 0.05$, being ~1% of the block reward, there is no meaningful fee market to discuss about. There is definitely a mechanism where you can bypass the queue by a higher fee, and in this sense it is a market, but the volume of this market is so tiny that it doesn't even register compared to what subsidy does. Miners could be mining empty blocks and it wouldn't affect their pocket negatively. That's how insignificant it is.

If devs push for highers fees => "ohhh those fuckers want to exclude the poor guy"
If devs allow for more space/tx abundance at near-zero fees => "ohhh they are idiots, this attracts attacks, it can't work for the long-term sustainability of bitcoin and bitcoin mining" etc etc.
If devs don't interefere => "oh they are sitting on their ass doing nothing and their incompetence has created these problems"

Whatever they do, either way, or whatever they don't do, you can find a reason to attack them. This type of thinking can be evidenced by writings such as BillyJoe's who, a few months ago, was saying "ohhh I don't want to pay higher fees, I bought my right to transact when I bought my coins" and then, when commenting on the Lightning network, he was spreading FUD about how will the miners get paid if the LN can do so many transactions at low fees, and that miners should get more fees, otherwise bitcoin will be in problem etc etc.

Whatever the situation => you can use it to attack the devs. And this is happening all day.

Low fees? Fuck the devs.
High fees? Fuck the devs.
The devs are staying out of the argument? Fuck the devs again.

Fuck the devs, Fuck the devs, Fuck the devs, Fuck the devs, Fuck the devs, Fuck the devs, Fuck the devs, Fuck the devs, Fuck the devs, Fuck the devs, Fuck the devs, Fuck the devs, Fuck the devs, Fuck the devs, Fuck the devs, Fuck the devs, Fuck the devs, Fuck the devs, Fuck the devs, Fuck the devs, Fuck the devs, Fuck the devs, Fuck the devs, Fuck the devs

...all day long...

Why?

Because the issues here are not technical. They have the facade of technical disagreements but at their root, they are a way to undermine confidence and promote a governance coup.

{Applause.gif}

Don't forget:
Devs communicate?  Fuck them for manipulating public opinion.
Devs don't communicate?  Fuck them for ignoring human dignity.

Let's make a list of everyone who has been here long enough to know better, but is nevertheless pushing the false "ZOMG SEGWIT CAUSES CHAIN FORKZ!11!!" narrative in yet another attempt to manufacture panic.

And then you have people like HostFat, who tell people to boycott Core/Blockstream/theymos yet still runs their code and posts on their forums.

[JayJuanGee]

but you can always fork off and play with eth dapps derps.

ETH: Price > 10x in 2 months
BTC: Keeps tanking, predictably

Man, you must feel AWFUL

Yes.  Factually, ETH did 10X in 2 months...   but bitcoin did not tank.  It is relatively flat in two months within a range of about $352 to $450... and currently within about the middle of that range..

Not exactly "tanking" and not exactly in any kind of "predictable" manner because there have been  some fairly decent ups and downs in the past couple of months in bitcoinlandia.

[JayJuanGee]

but you can always fork off and play with eth dapps derps.

ETH: Price > 10x in 2 months
BTC: Keeps tanking, predictably

Man, you must feel AWFUL

And if you even decided to invest in Ethereum, you can hope to see tears once the whales start dumping their coins and dropping the price back down to where it's supposed to be, and feeling bad about not sticking with bitcoin.

Bad as the tears around here, when BTC started tanking at $1,200?
Man, would'a cried my eyes out, myself, because such not P&D

Yes in retrospect we recognize $1200 as an inflated highpoint... but hardly a pump and dump to take nearly a year to force the price down to below $200 with considerable amounts of capital used in order to achieve such objective.

Actually, there was considerable amounts of capital used in both directions (the pump and the dump of bitcoin)... We will see whether Ether can do another 10X... after the latest 10x... and that would surely be impressive if it were capable of such (which seems very low likelihood).  Bitcoin seems to be in a much better position for a 10X (at this time) as compared with Ether doing another 10x at its current price point.

[Andre#]

holy shit wtf is going on?

https://medium.com/@barmstrong/what-happened-at-the-satoshi-roundtable-6c11a10d8cdf#.pscurkusv

Armstrong speaks --> price retreats

OMG, he discovered big font and colors!

BTW, Amstrong's blog is from yesterday. Price started retreating three days ago. Perhaps the correct causality is

price retreats --> Armstrong speaks

[ahpku]

but you can always fork off and play with eth dapps derps.

ETH: Price > 10x in 2 months
BTC: Keeps tanking, predictably

Man, you must feel AWFUL

And if you even decided to invest in Ethereum, you can hope to see tears once the whales start dumping their coins and dropping the price back down to where it's supposed to be, and feeling bad about not sticking with bitcoin.

Bad as the tears around here, when BTC started tanking at $1,200?
Man, would'a cried my eyes out, myself, because such not P&D

Yes in retrospect we recognize $1200 as an inflated highpoint... but hardly a pump and dump to take nearly a year to force the price down to below $200 with considerable amounts of capital used in order to achieve such objective.

Actually, there was considerable amounts of capital used in both directions (the pump and the dump of bitcoin)... We will see whether Ether can do another 10X... after the latest 10x... and that would surely be impressive if it were capable of such (which seems very low likelihood).  Bitcoin seems to be in a much better position for a 10X (at this time) as compared with Ether doing another 10x at its current price point.

Another 10x?! You mean "and blow Bitcoin right out of the water"?

You do understand that 10x * 10x is 100x, correct? Making ETH market cap higher than BTC by, roughly, a third?
The improbability of this sort of thing is something many Bitcoin enthusiasts fail to grasp

Lowered Expectations



~ time passes ~

~ time passes ~

Yep, third month of 2016, no $500
Next Coindesk poll: 50% of Bitcoin Experts Believe Bitcoin Will Be Worth Over $275 by 2017
Prob'ly miss that by a shitload, per usual.

[ChartBuddy]

Coin



Explanation

[JayJuanGee]

28 million in leveraged longs on BFX. Shorts barely changed.  This is a dangerously unstable situation.  Every one of those longs have to close at some point, either at a profit or a loss. It amounts to massive overhead resistance.

Where the hell is the pump gonna come from? Halving is priced in. SegWit is priced in even though it may not happen or happen on a longer time frame than expected.  Global economic stability? Bitcoin lost 5% in a day, hardly a safe haven asset, especially given the current governance situation.

Bitcoin is a honeybadger, so price may go up, but if it does, it will be in spite of fundamentals, not because of them.  There can be no sustainable rise without a permanent scaling solution.

Sometimes you make a lot of sense; however, this is not one of those times.


Get real.


If price were in a consolidation period for a few days, then of course it makes sense to attempt to weigh price direction in terms of which way the bets are stacked; however, in this case, price just suffered a test of $400, and that test took a whole hell-a-va lot of coins to move the price (on stamp) from $402 to $382 (actually about 3000 BTC on stamp within a few minutes).  That was no sustainable drop, but instead a test of the bottom that has proven that it takes a whole hellava lot of coins to push below $400 and we are currently back above $400...... ...

On the other hand, I don't really know for sure.. but to me, it seems that the bottom has been tested, and we are back on our way up in bitcoin.  In any event, the odds seems greater to go up from here (5% or 10%), rather than going down.  On the other hand, we could languish in this price area for a few days, and if that happens, then we will need to reconsider our predictions a that point, including considering the extent to which longs (or shorts are stacking up) and other potential tests of support or resistance.. and how much volume of BTC is employed to engage in such tests.

[adamstgBit]

holy shit wtf is going on?

https://medium.com/@barmstrong/what-happened-at-the-satoshi-roundtable-6c11a10d8cdf#.pscurkusv

Armstrong speaks --> price retreats

OMG, he discovered big font and colors!

BTW, Amstrong's blog is from yesterday. Price started retreating three days ago. Perhaps the correct causality is

price retreats --> Armstrong speaks

Amstrong had another similar blog the day of the round table.

hes been very vocal about this for a long time.

[ahpku]

...
Amstrong had another similar blog the day of the round table.
...

Round Table Original or Round Table Classic?