Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[damnek]

Agree that longer term plays are still relatively easy.  Those would be the high "win rate" plays.  Losing edge on the shorter term plays will have a dramatic influence on variance tho.  It's where the bodies are buried !  A slow leakage, that slowly hastens in time due to excess activity.  The analogy being to the online poker player that met his own eventual demise by being overly aggressive and too "active" with other very competent players.  Variance skyrocketed with few people noticing or fully appreciating it.  Some of these otherwise competent players went bust from an extended "cold streak", farther stretched than anticipated.  Some of them had a "hot streak" of course, which only instilled a false sense of confidence in one's "game" and talents.  Those players would move up in stakes rapidly, with that confidence, before the variance would inevitably bite them in the ass.  

Least in Bitcoin there's a simple solution, focus on the higher win rate plays which sometimes require sitting tight.  Don't fly too close to the sun.

I completely agree with your observations. It takes time and intelligence to stay "up to date" and understand what drives the market. You can't expect to be lazy, not do your homework, and still get paid (i.e. the 5-minute timeframe gambling).

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[DaRude]

yes, any day now difficulty will be dropping and my 2 netbooks will make me a fortune again ...

Ok i give up. Yes you figured it out, hash rate = $price CCMF  

[marcus_of_augustus]

I guess you cant read so I'll repeat it for you:

cost of production forms a soft lower bound for price, an 'elastic' floor if you will.

Cost of production is related to difficulty but not directly or in a definite proportional relation since it is complicated by many other factors like cost of rig development, software development and operational labour overheads, electricity, etc. So now I've opened it up to the total complexity (that really just complicates with enlightening) this is the bit where you try to wriggle out and lead the conversation into the weeds, minutiae, thread-trashing and scatological references to obfuscate the central premise that doesn't fit your permabear, anti-bitcoin case.

[Spaceman_Spiff]

I guess you cant read so I'll repeat it for you:

cost of production forms a soft lower bound for price, an 'elastic' floor if you will.

Cost of production is related to difficulty but not directly or in a definite proportional relation since it is complicated by many other factors like cost of rig development, software development and operational labour overheads, electricity, etc. So now I've opened it up to the total complexity (that really just complicates with enlightening) this is the bit where you try to wriggle out and lead the conversation into the weeds, minutiae, thread-trashing and scatological references to obfuscate the central premise that doesn't fit your permabear, anti-bitcoin case.

I am wildly bullish, but your statements don't seem logical to me.
There is nothing theoretically preventing the price from dropping and miners going bankrupt, inducing lower difficulty.   
I am not saying that is what I expect to happen in the near future, just that it can happen.

Please try reasoning with arguments instead of resorting to aggressive end statements.

[marcus_of_augustus]

I guess you cant read so I'll repeat it for you:

cost of production forms a soft lower bound for price, an 'elastic' floor if you will.

Cost of production is related to difficulty but not directly or in a definite proportional relation since it is complicated by many other factors like cost of rig development, software development and operational labour overheads, electricity, etc. So now I've opened it up to the total complexity (that really just complicates with enlightening) this is the bit where you try to wriggle out and lead the conversation into the weeds, minutiae, thread-trashing and scatological references to obfuscate the central premise that doesn't fit your permabear, anti-bitcoin case.

I am wildly bullish, but your statements don't seem logical to me.
There is nothing theoretically preventing the price from dropping and miners going bankrupt, inducing lower difficulty.   
I am not saying that is what I expect to happen in the near future, just that it can happen.

Please try reasoning with arguments instead of resorting to aggressive end statements.

I'm not being aggressive, I'm just explaining how it goes every time I lay it out as simply as I can. Look I don't have time to go through it all again so I can't really help you anymore if you don't get it yet, sorry.

[DaRude]

I guess you cant read so I'll repeat it for you:

cost of production forms a soft lower bound for price, an 'elastic' floor if you will.

Cost of production is related to difficulty but not directly or in a definite proportional relation since it is complicated by many other factors like cost of rig development, software development and operational labour overheads, electricity, etc. So now I've opened it up to the total complexity (that really just complicates with enlightening) this is the bit where you try to wriggle out and lead the conversation into the weeds, minutiae, thread-trashing and scatological references to obfuscate the central premise that doesn't fit your permabear, anti-bitcoin case.

I am wildly bullish, but your statements don't seem logical to me.
There is nothing theoretically preventing the price from dropping and miners going bankrupt, inducing lower difficulty.   
I am not saying that is what I expect to happen in the near future, just that it can happen.

Please try reasoning with arguments instead of resorting to aggressive end statements.

I'm not being aggressive, I'm just explaining how it goes every time I lay it out as simply as I can. Look I don't have time to go through it all again so I can't really help you anymore if you don't get it yet, sorry.

Bravo, that sums it up nicely. And i'm a anti-bitcoin permabear now 

Dragon is pushing again, but ask side is pretty steep on finex plus i'm sure Mr BTC5k ask wall is still lurking somewhere

[becoin]

There is nothing theoretically preventing the price from dropping and miners going bankrupt, inducing lower difficulty.  

Theoretically everything is possible but not always!

[Spaceman_Spiff]

There is nothing theoretically preventing the price from dropping and miners going bankrupt, inducing lower difficulty.  

Theoretically everything is possible but not always!

I think this has actually happened before for brief periods.

Anyways, looks like we are heading up again.  Go BTC 

[DaRude]

There is nothing theoretically preventing the price from dropping and miners going bankrupt, inducing lower difficulty.  

Theoretically everything is possible but not always!

I'd even accept this argument over marcus's logic where miners can't go bankrupt. Yes spacetime continuum and we're all holograms in some blackhole's matrix.

[DaRude]

There is nothing theoretically preventing the price from dropping and miners going bankrupt, inducing lower difficulty.  

Theoretically everything is possible but not always!

I think this has actually happened before for brief periods.

Anyways, looks like we are heading up again.  Go BTC 

Reassuring to see a little nibble but will need lots more, still BTC15k are stacked till $650 on Finex someone cashing in big time

[Spaceman_Spiff]

There is nothing theoretically preventing the price from dropping and miners going bankrupt, inducing lower difficulty.  

Theoretically everything is possible but not always!

I think this has actually happened before for brief periods.

Anyways, looks like we are heading up again.  Go BTC  

Reassuring to see a little nibble but will need lots more, still BTC15k are stacked till $650 on Finex someone cashing in big time

Eventually the movement of the ocean will erode even the strongest walls  



EDIT: It would be comforting to see BTC shorts a bit higher though.

[DaRude]

..and longs a LOT lower. But it'll probably only go higher as speculation peaks before the halvening, hope a lot of those longs are in etherpoop too

[Spaceman_Spiff]

..and longs a LOT lower. But it'll probably only go higher as speculation peaks before the halvening, hope a lot of those longs are in etherpoop too

True, but I doubt most are in etherpoop.  The thing is, most of the time big long positions are a recipe for disaster, which is why I was reluctant to jump into the breakout at first, but if speculators can correctly predict an influx of new money, then we are A-OK, and I think this has been happening.  People who were interested in bitcoin before, and have been following it a bit are deciding they don't want to miss the train, and jumping on.  The real bubble starts when we reach the people who haven't seriously considered investing yet.

[DaRude]

..and longs a LOT lower. But it'll probably only go higher as speculation peaks before the halvening, hope a lot of those longs are in etherpoop too

True, but I doubt most are in etherpoop.  The thing is, most of the time big long positions are a recipe for disaster, which is why I was reluctant to jump into the breakout at first, but if speculators can correctly predict an influx of new money, then we are A-OK, and I think this has been happening.  People who were interested in bitcoin before, and have been following it a bit are deciding they don't want to miss the train, and jumping on.  The real bubble starts when we reach the people who haven't seriously considered investing yet.

The bull in me agrees, think(hope?) market is underestimating the effects and coverage of the halvening, expecting some wild swings during this month

Kinda scared me when longs went full retard and ate up all the swaps causing the daily rate on finex to jump to  above 0.5%. If it'd held that would squeeze a lot of them

[Spaceman_Spiff]

..and longs a LOT lower. But it'll probably only go higher as speculation peaks before the halvening, hope a lot of those longs are in etherpoop too

True, but I doubt most are in etherpoop.  The thing is, most of the time big long positions are a recipe for disaster, which is why I was reluctant to jump into the breakout at first, but if speculators can correctly predict an influx of new money, then we are A-OK, and I think this has been happening.  People who were interested in bitcoin before, and have been following it a bit are deciding they don't want to miss the train, and jumping on.  The real bubble starts when we reach the people who haven't seriously considered investing yet.

The bull in me agrees, think(hope?) market is underestimating the effects and coverage of the halvening, expecting some wild swings during this month

Kinda scared me when longs went full retard and ate up all the swaps causing the daily rate on finex to jump to  above 0.5%. If it'd held that would squeeze a lot of them

I think upcoming scalability improvements, the end of previous bubble deflating and the worst of the "bitcoin civil war" being over are also positive price factors. Could still be a bumpy ride though  .

[Assmaster2000]

... hope a lot of those longs are in etherpoop too

Ether's totally f8cked.


Because the numeral 4 is totally unlucky for the Chinese numerologists

[USB-S]

Easter egg bitcoin wallet private key hidden in CGI!


Click here me to receive.

[StraightAArdvark]

Sold my house this week. My mortgage was the last thing requiring me to have a bank account. Last mont my landlord started taking bitcoins for rent. He is happy.

Now to get all of that equity into bitcoins quickly.

I think I found a buyer for you...

In a period of time, I have been buying bitcoins only in cash and amassed over 800 btc, I keep them in several wallets. Now, I'm in a need of buying some stuff unfortunately you still cant buy with btc nowadays - car, wedding ceremony, paying for some travel trips, general spending in life etc. So I need to cash out at least 250 btc, but the problem is the taxes. Im willing to pay them, no issues, but I think they'll cause me some troubles as people may think this money comes from illegal operations, which is not true but I have no way to prove it.

https://np.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/4n1680/cashing_out_a_big_sum_of_btc_without_getting_in/

[marcus_of_augustus]

There is nothing theoretically preventing the price from dropping and miners going bankrupt, inducing lower difficulty.  

Theoretically everything is possible but not always!

I'd even accept this argument over marcus's logic where miners can't go bankrupt.

Listen you lying, slippery little piece of shit ... no part of my argument ever said " ... miners can't go bankrupt..." ??

Do not try and put words in my mouth again. If you don't want to learn then just stfu and stop making the world a worse place for others who might want to learn.

[DaRude]

There is nothing theoretically preventing the price from dropping and miners going bankrupt, inducing lower difficulty.  

Theoretically everything is possible but not always!

I'd even accept this argument over marcus's logic where miners can't go bankrupt.

Listen you lying, slippery little piece of shit ... no part of my argument ever said " ... miners can't go bankrupt..." ??

Do not try and put words in my mouth again. If you don't want to learn then just stfu and stop making the world a worse place for others who might want to learn.

BTC price can't fall below cost of production = miners always make profit
Miners make profit = miners won't go bankrupt

And seems like i'm not the only one who can't follow your logic, maybe we're all dumb here and can't learn from you? And one more name calling and on ignore you go, you'd be the first "legend"