Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Ibian]

Bcash cost of production (difficulty) is now being slashed by 20% per block for the next 6 blocks. Expect miners to follow cost of production slavishly. Forking guys have no idea what they have unleashed ... it will become apparent soon now.

Yes, the existence BCC will destabilize BCT mining.  

Everyone knows that at equilibrium, if BCC has 1/10th the value of BTC, that the hash power mining BCC will be 1/10th that mining BTC.  

What is less obvious what happens when the system is not in equilibrium. Imagine that the market reprices BCC 100% higher and BTC 10% lower.  What is the expected distribution of hash power now assuming short-term profit-maximizing miners?  

The answer is "most of it will be mining BCC." Because the difficulty adjusts only very slowly (every 2016 blocks) BCC becomes twice as profitable to mine as BTC.  Hash-per-hash miners would earn double by mining BCC.  This continues until the difficulty reset comes when BCC would go "limit up" (4X), when most miners would leave BCC back for BTC.  BCC's difficulty would slowly ratchet back down due to its fast difficulty adjustment and the process would later repeat.  

What this suggest is that at times when BCC is more profitable to mine and the hash rate migrates to BCC, the average block time for BTC will increase significantly and BTC's already slow and expensive transactions will become much more so.  

Well. Fuck.

We really should just have raised the block size and been done with it.

Oh look, another loud-mouthed idiot here to gloat upon exactly how they've fucked up their investment in bitcoin. Your egos must really be butt-hurt bad about that 'blocksize' debate huh? Who knew such idiots even existed?

What, precisely, is your major malfunction?

[marcus_of_augustus]

What, precisely, is your major malfunction?

Thought it would have been obvious to anybody but an idiot ... I don't suffer idiots gladly.

[Ibian]

What, precisely, is your major malfunction?

Thought it would have been obvious to anybody but an idiot ... I don't suffer idiots gladly.

Okay Dunning.

[traincarswreck]

we're gonna see a whale jump out of the ocean.  Also someone's made an error.

[deepcolderwallet]

Lol. Looks like Marcus and the cockroach are having a heavy time in their affair...

[jojo69]

Meanwhile the candle is burning at both ends because arrests have already started and negotiations and prisoner's dilemmas have commenced.  

and to think I had you ignored for a while

[deepcolderwallet]

we're gonna see a whale jump out of the ocean.  Also someone's made an error.

Explain yourself, lord of enigmas...

[Elwar]

Bcash cost of production (difficulty) is now being slashed by 20% per block for the next 6 blocks. Expect miners to follow cost of production slavishly. Forking guys have no idea what they have unleashed ... it will become apparent soon now.

Yes, the existence BCC will destabilize BCT mining.  

Everyone knows that at equilibrium, if BCC has 1/10th the value of BTC, that the hash power mining BCC will be 1/10th that mining BTC.  

What is less obvious what happens when the system is not in equilibrium. Imagine that the market reprices BCC 100% higher and BTC 10% lower.  What is the expected distribution of hash power now assuming short-term profit-maximizing miners?  

The answer is "most of it will be mining BCC." Because the difficulty adjusts only very slowly (every 2016 blocks) BCC becomes twice as profitable to mine as BTC.  Hash-per-hash miners would earn double by mining BCC.  This continues until the difficulty reset comes when BCC would go "limit up" (4X), when most miners would leave BCC back for BTC.  BCC's difficulty would slowly ratchet back down due to its fast difficulty adjustment and the process would later repeat.  

What this suggest is that at times when BCC is more profitable to mine and the hash rate migrates to BCC, the average block time for BTC will increase significantly and BTC's already slow and expensive transactions will become much more so.  

Umm..what?

How is 25 BCC (at 10% the value of BTC) mined per day more profitable than 300 BTC per day?

[traincarswreck]

Explain yourself, lord of enigmas...

That's as far as I see.

[sirazimuth]

In case not news already...Coinbase to support BCC (or wtf the ticker is now)
shit just got interesting...

[traincarswreck]

This war is going to evolve to involve fiat and nations

[Peter R]

Bcash cost of production (difficulty) is now being slashed by 20% per block for the next 6 blocks. Expect miners to follow cost of production slavishly. Forking guys have no idea what they have unleashed ... it will become apparent soon now.

Yes, the existence BCC will destabilize BCT mining.  

So you have been a part of knowingly destabilising bitcoin mining? Neither chain will be stable, the 'hard-fork now!' camp have just stupidly devalued any investment they had in bitcoin (BTC or BCH) ... unless of course you actually work for govvy agents or other actors aiming to do exactly that which you admit to.

Merged-mining is one way BCH can gracefully admit their gargantuan fuck-up and save face (seems they spend a lot of time doing that). You weren't around when we already tried these 'experiments', it's not a pretty outcome. Bitcoin will survive but the credibility of the idiot  loud-mouth crowd doesn't stand much chance (not that they had a lot). Enjoy your forking euphoria, your ultimate downfall has now been sealed.

Big blockers blame small blockers for the fork; small blockers blame big blockers.  I think a split was inevitable given the two distinct visions for Bitcoin's future.

Regarding destabilizing mining, I think what this means is that in the medium term, only one chain will survive (at least with any real value).  The miners will eventually see their incentive to kill off one of the chains. 

The question is which one. 

[Elwar]

In case not news already...Coinbase to support BCC (or wtf the ticker is now)
shit just got interesting...

Coinbase was holding a ton of peoples' bitcoins during the fork. Coinbase now has a whole lot of bcash to sell.

Ipso facto...Coinbase is cashing out their BCH.

[traincarswreck]

Big blockers blame small blockers for the fork; small blockers blame big blockers.  I think a split was inevitable given the two distinct visions for Bitcoin's future.

Regarding destabilizing mining, I think what this means is that in the medium term, only one chain will survive (at least with any real value).  The miners will eventually see their incentive to kill off one of the chains. 

The question is which one. 

The community doesn't realize yet it has been besieged.

[marcus_of_augustus]

Hi. We are here to talk to you about Satoshi's vision, do you have a few moments?

Oh look, Peter_R and Paul (Ibian) have shown up to preach the 'hard-fork now!" Satoshi's vision gospel.

[traincarswreck]

Oh look, Peter_R and Paul (Ibian) have shown up to preach the 'hard-fork now!" Satoshi's vision gospel.

No they are welcomed.  We need the dialogue.  We opened pandora's box.

[Skol600ml]

It's amazing how people don't know about the "buyers". They just think the coin is destroyed when they trade

[marcus_of_augustus]

I think a split was inevitable given the two distinct visions for Bitcoin's future.

Well, one side is having 'visions' ... 'satoshi's visions', 'visions of gradeur', visions of centralised political governance ... lots of 'visions'.

... the other side is sticking to the technical facts and realm of computer science knowledge.

[bones261]

Hi. We are here to talk to you about Satoshi's vision, do you have a few moments?

Oh look, Peter_R and Paul (Ibian) have shown up to preach the 'hard-fork now!" Satoshi's vision gospel.

Bitcoin Jesus is on their side!   Now when will the supporters get their temple garments? Will they all get their own planets to be gods over, too?

[traincarswreck]

So the trading volume and statistics will be watched for the timing when the vast majority of early sellers are finished so the next move will be calculated literally and coordinated.