Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[pfrtlpfmpf]

much technical
very analysis
wow

much technical
very analysis
wow

Guys, just throw it back into their mouth, and we´re done !

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[rjclarke2000]

So..... where are we heading when the inevitable correction happens?

Where will it settle?

Thoughts?

[podyx]

Is the party over already?

The fuck is this?

[rjclarke2000]

ATH and JJG is quiet.

Worrying.

[600watt]

So..... where are we heading when the inevitable correction happens?

Where will it settle?

Thoughts?

five k is the new target. bitcoin will keep going.

[BitcoinNewsMagazine]

$3690 is a 1.618 Fibonacci extension a logical price for a pause or profit taking.

I'm ignorant. From $2280? Why?

Hope this helps. Fibonacci extensions drawn from most recent swing high to swing low.

https://bitcoinnewsmagazine.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/dailyfibextensions.png

Thanks. So the calculation is based upon 0.5 being the halfway point between the local high and the local low?

Subtract the price at swing low $1830 from previous swing high $2980 to get $1150. Multiply $1150 by 1.618 to get $1860.7. Add that $1860.7 to the $1830 low to get the 1.618 first Fibonacci extension of $3690.7 then repeat for the higher extensions.

This is Bitcoin! All this TA is useless. So many people were tempted to short the "top" and got REKT.  Why didn't you learn anything from past 8 years?

Shorting a bull market is tricky and one way novice traders lose money. It is easier to make money just going long in a bull market. If you look at a weekly Bitstamp chart for BTC/USD with a simple 20 period moving average bitcoin price has been above the 20 MA for two years. That is two years of a bull market where all you had to do to make money with bitcoin was buy when price touched a line on a chart, the 20 MA. Last time was last month when you should have bought under $1900.  

[600watt]

Is the party over already?

The fuck is this?

crypto is dead.

 

[pfrtlpfmpf]

Is the party over already?

The fuck is this?

crypto is dead.

 

You couldn´t be wronger, seriously !

[jojo69]

OMG


SELL SELL SELL!!!

 

[soullyG]

Is the party over already?

The fuck is this?

crypto is dead.

 

You couldn´t be wronger, seriously !

Just refuelling for the next stage

[practicaldreamer]

Subtract the price at swing low $1830 from previous swing high $2980 to get $1150. Multiply $1150 by 1.618 to get $1860.7. Add that $1860.7 to the $1830 low to get the 1.618 first Fibonacci extension of $3690.7 then repeat for the higher extensions.

Got it. So why do people think it works? What is the theory? Empirical based on backtesting across numerous markets?

They are trying to establish a sequence with a few variables, to discern a pattern. Its human nature - all too human, and in this particular case, all too flawed.
That is the best case scenario - worst case is that they are trying to kid you and I into buying into the sorcery.

Fibonacci ?

My royal arse. Too many variables old chap.

This is bitcoin.

[jbreher]

Subtract the price at swing low $1830 from previous swing high $2980 to get $1150. Multiply $1150 by 1.618 to get $1860.7. Add that $1860.7 to the $1830 low to get the 1.618 first Fibonacci extension of $3690.7 then repeat for the higher extensions.

Got it. So why do people think it works? What is the theory? Empirical based on backtesting across numerous markets?

Fibonacci retracements and extensions are based on the Fibonacci sequence of numbers. The Golden Ratio 1.618 is found everywhere in nature and also bitcoin charts. Traders have been using Fibonacci for decades because it has been shown to work with markets. Back in January 2015 since I knew the bitcoin low was $152 at that time and the previous ATH was $1163 I could predict a possible future bitcoin price of $2798 from the 2.618 Fibonacci extension. Do you see how Fibonacci can be useful now? In this case it could have helped a smart trader avoid taking profits too early.

Yeah, I'm familiar with Fibonacci and his work, just not as applied to markets.

If you tell me this happens to be observed in formal empirical backtesting, I can believe it. But only as applied to those markets. If you tell me it is anything else, I am not so inclined to believe it.

I've seen some spectacular (so-called) Bitcoin Fibonacci prediction fails. Accordingly, without (again) formal empirical backtesting against specifically Bitcoin, I am not inclined to put any faith in it. The fact that this method (is claimed to) work with more typical markets such as stocks and/or bonds, coupled with the knowledge that cryptocurrency is very uncorrelated with any other asset class, makes me further disinclined to believe its applicability to this market.

Any way you look at it, if it works at all in any market, I am inclined to beleive it says more about crowd behavior than any real fundamental mechanism.

Long story short, until I see some backtesting against Bitcoin, I am unlikely to put any faith in it whatsoever.

But now at least I know where the mapping of the Fib Numbers to predicted levels come from. Thanks.

[r0ach]

Bitcoin is a non-aggregate market that's been controlled almost entirely by a single entity on Bitfinex all the way from $200 to now so things like fib extensions mean all of jack shit.  This is why I call it a pump and dump.  If the price is controlled almost entirely by one entity, what the hell else would it be?  People make believe the price is moved by a bunch of small players....LOL.  The number of people who move this market up or down takes less than one hand to count.  It was like that when the price was $200 and it's the same way now.

[empowering]

This is why I call it a pump and dump. 

..... a pump and pump ?

[empowering]

....... talking of dumps

I wonder how much longer will BCH hold $200 for 

[Ibian]

get help roach

[Meuh6879]

mmmmh, resistance ... that, it's good.

[Meuh6879]

I should have paid more attention at school. Wow

You can learn money mechanism at school ?
: Quick, "the Fed", kill this city !

[BlindMayorBitcorn]

Let this BCH alt coin die already.

No.  It was already planned and known there would be a dump period.  The price will be volatile and with some downward pressure and the earlier seller sell off. Price can be propped up with orders and exchanges can claim different types of friction to halt the liquidity to keep the price showing bitcoin cash is relevant (ie not near 0).

once the dust settles or as it does, the mining is going to ramp up and the economics and game theory is going to change gears.  They will try to outpace the old chain.  

It's a near 51% attack, plus an equivalent attack using exchanges, plus an equivalent using whales that have enough of the market cornered.

So the coalition is making a conjecture they have enough power to overcome Satoshi's hidden conjecture that the system can't be usurped.

They have a gang of nefarious hackers that have been stealing coins and laundering them through nefarious exchanges that have deals with the new coin minters (ie the nefarious miners).

They have launched their campaign to overthrow the network and free millions upon millions of stolen coins.

Meanwhile the candle is burning at both ends because arrests have already started and negotiations and prisoner's dilemmas have commenced.  

Heady times, gentlemen.

[leowonderful]

....... talking of dumps

I wonder how much longer will BCH hold $200 for  

Probably not too long. Everybody that has dumped BCH has mostly dumped and the planned HODLers are probably trembling right now. I'm surprised this chain is still alive with all of the mess that it has created and the mess that it is in itself. The coin could probably pump again now that many people have dumped but I doubt it'll go anywhere anytime soon.