Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[realr0ach]

Fast forward to the year 2022 set at the Wall Observer 100k party at Voodoo Lounge in Las Vegas. An older and even more bitter Roach, soul crushed by the crash of silver and all other PMs comes to the party via coin raised by our Wall Observer heroes.

You guys are completely delusional.  When the global debt bubble implodes, bitcoin is going to be completely worthless and unusable, and I'll be lucky if there's any economy still existing that I can spend physical metals in.  The currency might simply be martial law and Venezeula looter mobs.

The debt bubble implosion cannot be solved by inflation aka inflating away debts until they're servicable to kick the can down the road.  There are just too many broke ass people that don't even have assets for the PPT to rig the price upwards on, but those same people with no assets do have debts.  The only way you could even attempt to do such a thing is literally helicopter money - the govt just handing people money for no reason, but every nation from the US and China and so on would probably all have to do it.

Global coordinated helicopter money isn't plausible.  You could make the claim bitcoin is the first real world implementation of helicopter money and the govt could just rig the price upwards on that, except for the fact bitcoin almost instantly became centralized after release and controlled by Chinese mining cartels.  So rigging the price upwards on bitcoin does absolutely nothing since it only goes to 0.000000000001% of the population - Chinese miners and a couple random gamblers.  If bitcoin was a govt attempt at helicopter money, it failed miserably.

[Realerre]

The future. Cunningly disguised as

A thought experiment

I'd be running around trying to find out why the crash happened.
Did the tptb suicide a buncha 'core devs'? Did it get banned by the G20/Gxx? Did the miners really steal the segwits?
The sort of news that affects price in dollars, but doesn't touch Bitcoin itself?
Or is it something actually serious?
Not gonna elucidate on those possibilities.
If it wasn't serious, I'd fill my bags and answer newbie bleatings here and elsewhere.

I have the fear that what we are observing is bitfinex exiting from their fractional-reserve scam, almost unnoticed.

Bitcoin was pumped really fast with really big volumes, and I think that the retail FOMO in 2017 was not a cause, but a consequence of such pump. The pump was sustained by finex's tethers, either if they were real or not.

I think there's a chance this is a well-executed "willy bot" pump and dump, markets are crazy but there are too much people buying and selling in panic without reason for this to be real.

[pönde]

Does the seller side has to have the bitcoins when the contract is made?

No. That's the whole idea behind "regulated" bitcoin markets. You don't need to have a single satoshi to sell thousands of bitcoins and suppress price.

Bankers think that bitcoin ETFs will solve bitcoin supply "problem".

When the contract expires seller has to anyway have to get the coins from somewhere to be able to sell them to the buyer?

Nope. Actual delivery of bitcoins is forbidden. Just like in gold futures and ETFs. At the expiry date profit/loss is cleared through the seller's margin deposit which is in dollars. If the seller is systemically important bank and they did the wrong bet Fed will print new dollars and will give them to pay for their loss.

The buyer side was there to buy some bitcoins. If he will not have them, what will he have? The dollars?

The contract said for example buyer will buy three bitcoins for price 3500$ per one coin which is total 10500$. But the day price is 4500$ per bitcoin which is total 13500$. So the buyer will have 3000$ for bank account?

[empowering]

[empowering]

I want to break free

from this range

[empowering]

Bored

[becoin]

Does the seller side has to have the bitcoins when the contract is made?

No. That's the whole idea behind "regulated" bitcoin markets. You don't need to have a single satoshi to sell thousands of bitcoins and suppress price.

Bankers think that bitcoin ETFs will solve bitcoin supply "problem".

When the contract expires seller has to anyway have to get the coins from somewhere to be able to sell them to the buyer?

Nope. Actual delivery of bitcoins is forbidden. Just like in gold futures and ETFs. At the expiry date profit/loss is cleared through the seller's margin deposit which is in dollars. If the seller is systemically important bank and they did the wrong bet Fed will print new dollars and will give them to pay for their loss.

The buyer side was there to buy some bitcoins. If he will not have them, what will he have? The dollars?

The contract said for example buyer will buy three bitcoins for price 3500$ per one coin which is total 10500$. But the day price is 4500$ per bitcoin which is total 13500$. So the buyer will have 3000$ for bank account?

Yes, buyer will have $3000 credited to their margin deposit/bank account.

Regulated bitcoin markets are not for trading bitcoins but for bets on the future bitcoin price. Profit/loss resulting from those bets is paid in dollars. So, if you have unlimited access to the dollar printing press you can sell 21 million bitcoins without having a single satoshi.

[empowering]

The future. Cunningly disguised as

A thought experiment

I'd be running around trying to find out why the crash happened.
Did the tptb suicide a buncha 'core devs'? Did it get banned by the G20/Gxx? Did the miners really steal the segwits?
The sort of news that affects price in dollars, but doesn't touch Bitcoin itself?
Or is it something actually serious?
Not gonna elucidate on those possibilities.
If it wasn't serious, I'd fill my bags and answer newbie bleatings here and elsewhere.

I am sure it will all be fine.


I enjoyed peoples answers though - thanks guys

[realr0ach]

I have the fear that what we are observing is bitfinex exiting from their fractional-reserve scam, almost unnoticed.

Bitcoin was pumped really fast with really big volumes, and I think that the retail FOMO in 2017 was not a cause, but a consequence of such pump. The pump was sustained by finex's tethers, either if they were real or not.

I think there's a chance this is a well-executed "willy bot" pump and dump, markets are crazy but there are too much people buying and selling in panic without reason for this to be real.

Bitfinex is like the Goldman Sachs of cryptocurrency.  Whether it's fractional reserve, trading with customer funds, stealing customer funds, unplugging the exchange on purpose to try and liquidate margin positions, or printing infinite Tethers, I'm leaning more towards all of the above than one specific thing.

Just about nothing going on at that exchange has ever made sense.  Like the picture I posted earlier from eons ago when the price was around $1000.  The market wasn't even strong at $1000 fucking dollars.  It was weak as piss, and yet Bitfinex rigged it upwards on 0 volume.  To me, it looked like everything from $1k to $20k was probably fake and entirely orchestrated by that exchange:

[becoin]

I have the fear that what we are observing is bitfinex exiting from their fractional-reserve scam, almost unnoticed.

Fed won't be so lucky exiting unnoticed from their own fractional-reserve scam.

[realr0ach]

If you like your Jewish moneychanger, you can keep your Jewish moneychanger:

"(((Eric Weinstein))) is a mathematician and economist, and he is also the managing director at Thiel Capital."

[xhomerx10]

 I should have rotated the bottle a bit more - it says "Medicinal Brandy". The missing volume is the angels' share as it has never been opened.  I'm not sure how old it is or if it's even quaffable since I found it at my grandmother's place after she died 30 years ago.  It might just be medicinal vinegar now but if the price keeps dropping, I'll probably need it

[El duderino_]

This price is shit.

and sucks donky cock

[yefi]

With that much hate towards females I think he has been rejected all his life. I think I even feel a bit sad for him, but just a bit.

.. and that bit is gone now too.

An excellent topic for the next poll. Roach: lifelong virgin or not?

[empowering]

"75% of Bitcoin SV [BSV] hashrate is contained in 4 nodes, double-spending 0-conf transactions possible, discovers programmer"

https://ambcrypto.com/75-of-bitcoin-sv-bsv-hashrate-is-contained-in-4-nodes-double-spending-0-conf-transactions-possible-discovers-programmer/

 

[bitcoinPsycho]

This price is shit.

and sucks donky cock

Its only shit relative to last year . Zoom out dam it

[El duderino_]

 I should have rotated the bottle a bit more - it says "Medicinal Brandy". The missing volume is the angels' share as it has never been opened.  I'm not sure how old it is or if it's even quaffable since I found it at my grandmother's place after she died 30 years ago.  It might just be medicinal vinegar now but if the price keeps dropping, I'll probably need it

its day time-sober up time here in belgium

coffee needed (i'm going soft WO's)

[El duderino_]

This price is shit.

and sucks donky cock

Its only shit relative to last year . Zoom out dam it

much better THX

[El duderino_]

LFC is having a small moment of joy i guess, now the FARAO is strikes again

[tmfp]

Does the seller side has to have the bitcoins when the contract is made?

No. That's the whole idea behind "regulated" bitcoin markets. You don't need to have a single satoshi to sell thousands of bitcoins and suppress price.

Bankers think that bitcoin ETFs will solve bitcoin supply "problem".

When the contract expires seller has to anyway have to get the coins from somewhere to be able to sell them to the buyer?

Nope. Actual delivery of bitcoins is forbidden. Just like in gold futures and ETFs. At the expiry date profit/loss is cleared through the seller's margin deposit which is in dollars. If the seller is systemically important bank and they did the wrong bet Fed will print new dollars and will give them to pay for their loss.

The buyer side was there to buy some bitcoins. If he will not have them, what will he have? The dollars?

The contract said for example buyer will buy three bitcoins for price 3500$ per one coin which is total 10500$. But the day price is 4500$ per bitcoin which is total 13500$. So the buyer will have 3000$ for bank account?

Yes, buyer will have $3000 credited to their margin deposit/bank account.

Regulated bitcoin markets are not for trading bitcoins but for bets on the future bitcoin price. Profit/loss resulting from those bets is paid in dollars. So, if you have unlimited access to the dollar printing press you can sell 21 million bitcoins without having a single satoshi.

Futures markets were originally designed for "hedging" commodity prices, so that producers could plan and lock in a profit and buyers budget for their material costs while the actual "real" goods were on a boat somewhere.
I wouldn't be surprised if Bitcoin miners have been hedging their production by shorting futures since the bear market started (and derivative crypto trading became easier) and then simultaneously closing the shorts and selling the "physical" bitcoins as they mine them.
As Bitcoin isn't a consumable commodity in that original sense, there aren't the counterparty hedge purchases being done, only speculative buying (or not).