Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[El duderino_]

Just today, my great-aunt asked me how to short Bitcoin!

I admire you but I don’t believe you.

 Well, it was in a nightmare I had... it seemed so real but in hind-sight, I guess I don't have any living great-anyones. No more coffee after 6pm for me. 
 

meaning= i had a dream this night that BTC was 300$

LoL i think a friend of me had a related dream what a coincidence LMAO

he send me this in the morning today

[bitserve]

I prefer shorts REKT smells

I concur.

Know what I miss? I miss those times of excitement and joy where every other day was a new ATH. The rush of watching Bitcoin bounce at each dip and starting to eat every wall in his path to a new ATH. And then the explosion of adrenaline whilst it reached prices never seen before. Yeah, those times were good. And fun. I miss all that.

If you're craving that excitement learn to trade. It'll be there full-time as you watch your strategies play out, at least until you get to a point where you're successful in your sleep. Just don't get greedy and burn your stash. The perfect size is large enough where the profits are enticing, yet small enough to only get a rash on a wipe-out. I'm more interested in all the skills that come from trading though and prefer going long for making money.

Yeah, I have been trading since the very first day I bought my first Bitcoins. I had to, because the transfer arrived the exchange just hours before the first 2013 bubble imploded.
Trading allowed me to increase my stash significantly in 2013/2014. Not so this time (just a mere 5%) because I have reduced A LOT my exposure to exchanges and thus the amount I do trade with.

You can use multiple exchanges to reduce your counterparty risk significantly while still being able to trade. More of a hassle (unless you go via APIs) but a sensible option. Still always make sure to keep at least a little more than enough cold though.

Yes, that's what I do. I basically have 10% of my total crypto spread over several exchanges.

Sounds good.

I can definitely feel your sentiment, and I'd love some instant rallies right now. But I like how much easier it is to accumulate corn at lower levels, which makes me very conflicted.

What I need for my style of trading is brutal volatility, because what I do is basically scalp trading ranges. But that is long gone from Bitcoin unfortunately. I am trying to adapt to the new situation, but in the end I just find very few opportunities for scalping most of the time.

[bitserve]

Guys, look at the graphs... I have the feeling that something is about to happen.

[El duderino_]

[P_Shep]

Guys, look at the graphs... I have the feeling that something is about to happen.

So moon now?

[gembitz]

Just today, my great-aunt asked me how to short Bitcoin!

I admire you but I don’t believe you.

 Well, it was in a nightmare I had... it seemed so real but in hind-sight, I guess I don't have any living great-anyones. No more coffee after 6pm for me. 
 
 
 

I’m here to shit post not inspire confidence.

 I both admire and believe you.
 
 
 

I get a similar reaction to some scents - and it isn't because they're cheap. 
 
 Ages back my (then new) gf seemed to suddenly start smelling bad, I told her to change her scent but it seemed to be on all her clothes, in her wardrobe etc.  I started to think it was her and we just were not compatible.  I told her I had this issue and asked her to let me sniff the perfumes she had.  It was just one and it nailed it.  I was so relieved (we are still together)
 
 I don't know what chemical in the mix it was.  But I still notice it in a crowd if anyone is wearing scent containing it - it is so distinctive and it's not just one brand, it's an ingredient in some of them.  Mostly it seems it's only me who reacts to it, as the perfume she had was expensive, not cheap and sells ok. It was something with hints of 'wood' in its blurb BTW.
 
 I now buy stuff for her whenever we're killing time in airports and we check it first.  @homer - Might work for you too - it likely isn't 'all scents' just one ingredient. 

 
 Thanks for sharing your experience.  I'm going to have to experiment because I'm sure you're right it isn't all scents.  I just remembered another one YSL's Elle <- instant headache.
 One year we bought some "pine" scented ornaments for our (artificial) Christmas tree and they caused the same type of headache but yeah... hints of wood.
 
 
 

whale poo
 
 
 edit whale vom
 
 
 edit I wonder if it's ambergris?

 It's too expensive for experimentation; I'll have to wait until Bitcoin moons again to buy some ambergris to find out. (damn whales!)
 
 
 

 I'm high on life, baby. I haven't had any boozes in many, many years.
 
 And there's nothing creepy about me. I'm as wholesome as Karen Carpenter (pre laxatives) baking Mom's Apple Pie on Christmas morning surrounded by singing elves.

 Nothing creepy about that at all
 
 
 
 I know, I know, those elves aren't singing.
 
 
 
 

OT: I lol'ed
 
 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a2GVxYfKSxA

 That is hilarious.
 
 You can't
    Sneak up on Zuck,
      I don't even fuckin blink!
   

SV core devs lol

[bitserve]

Guys, look at the graphs... I have the feeling that something is about to happen.

So moon now?

No moon, but probably another leg up due to shorts rekt/covered

[BTCMILLIONAIRE]

Sure seems so. 3600~3800 or back down today?

If we go sideways for a long time you'll have your ranges, just possibly not with brutal volatility.

And yeah, trading right now is quite rough. Whenever I stick to my quantitative strategy to the tee it works out smooth. But once I feel like I know what'll happen next and open some smaller trades there I get fucked more often than not; maybe I should just do the opposite whenever I have an urge to try a riskier move - self-contrarian trading so to speak haha.

Either way, just shows how important it is not to bet on one strategy when trading.

[bitserve]

Sure seems so. 3600~3800 or back down today?

If we go sideways for a long time you'll have your ranges, just possibly not with brutal volatility.

And yeah, trading right now is quite rough. Whenever I stick to my quantitative strategy to the tee it works out smooth. But once I feel like I know what'll happen next and open some smaller trades there I get fucked more often than not; maybe I should just do the opposite whenever I have an urge to try a riskier move - self-contrarian trading so to speak haha.

Either way, just shows how important it is not to bet on one strategy when trading.

"quantitative strategy to the tee" what does that mean?

[El duderino_]

[El duderino_]

when looking to the price ...... nothing else matters? LoL

[bitserve]

Credit where is due, there are people that are way more Bitcoin nuts than us

[bitserve]

Guys, look at the graphs... I have the feeling that something is about to happen.

I do also, probably heading to my vote in the poll. Probably just a pie-in-the-sky feeling though, since the three day chart still looking bleak.

You know I don't know much about TA. But shorts can't "hodl" too long current pressure. If price keeps hodling at $3500 they will have to give up very soon.

[BTCMILLIONAIRE]

Sure seems so. 3600~3800 or back down today?

If we go sideways for a long time you'll have your ranges, just possibly not with brutal volatility.

And yeah, trading right now is quite rough. Whenever I stick to my quantitative strategy to the tee it works out smooth. But once I feel like I know what'll happen next and open some smaller trades there I get fucked more often than not; maybe I should just do the opposite whenever I have an urge to try a riskier move - self-contrarian trading so to speak haha.

Either way, just shows how important it is not to bet on one strategy when trading.

"quantitative strategy to the tee" what does that mean?

Figure out different potential scenarios and balance a strategy around all of them simultaneously in proportions that would let me sleep well regardless of what happens. Then let it ride out while refusing to succumb to impulses to re-adjust cause of "omg rally" or "omg dump".

Basically, figure out some prices that you could see happening, then set up individual trades that would profit/lose within a range that you like and then adjust the sum of the events in a way that stays within a band that you're happy with. If done right you're prepared for all eventualities. Basically just very thorough risk management.

Edit: Same shit as balancing a portfolio of stocks and other crap. Just with Bitcoin price targets being the "stocks".

[Icygreen]

I have returned from dinner and the party starts again.
I lack time to follow the pages of WO, very, very, fast

My wife is worried, she says I've been very strange for four days.

(4 / december first time in WO, lol)

nobody fucking cares , did we ask for your life story

who's "we" asshole

Mmmm nobody asks me neither ..... but gonna tell it anyway dumbf***

*headache* ....... late morning...... going for sober man’s breakfast, @goldkingcoiner, yeah outdoors, to f***ed up to put something together myself

Gonna glimps to the price now, ah ok = weeeEeEEEe

I do not understand anything, I just made a real comment about my wife, she made me laugh and I published it.
Then I got these pretty negative comments towards me. > https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg48542439#msg48542439
I think it's better to leave the WO.
I thank the rest of the members for the answers and their support of these days with all my questions.

Greetings to all.

Wouldn't take anything here personally unless you're JJG or Bob. Haha, but seriously.... The wall observer, like bitcoin can call for thick skin at times.

[BinaryReign]

Good morning from my hotel suite somewhat near my destination. Got about 4 more hours to drive and I’ll be relaxing in style.

It was nice to wake up and see BTC up about 5% (according to the coinbase app). That wasn’t expected, but my inner bull is still hesitant. Maybe even jaded after this year lol

I’ll check back with you all after I check-in, since driving while forum posting is not something I want to try to do

[yefi]

this market right now feels a lot more like the the 2011/12 bear than the 2014/15 bear, more vicious, organic, dog-eat-dog and less managed/contrived/orchestrated/manipulated.

In 2011/12 all the stolen Gox coins were being dumped, effectively increasing supply as they were being accounted for twice.

[LFC_Bitcoin]

Good morning from my hotel suite somewhat near my destination. Got about 4 more hours to drive and I’ll be relaxing in style.

It was nice to wake up and see BTC up about 5% (according to the coinbase app). That wasn’t expected, but my inner bull is still hesitant. Maybe even jaded after this year lol

I’ll check back with you all after I check-in, since driving while forum posting is not something I want to try to do

Safe journey brother!
Nothing to worry about bitcoin price related. We chill, relax, HODL & quietly accumulate whilst the price is still low.

I’ve gone past the stage of being worried now. This is an opportunity to add to your stashes.

[d_eddie]

Sure seems so. 3600~3800 or back down today?

If we go sideways for a long time you'll have your ranges, just possibly not with brutal volatility.

And yeah, trading right now is quite rough. Whenever I stick to my quantitative strategy to the tee it works out smooth. But once I feel like I know what'll happen next and open some smaller trades there I get fucked more often than not; maybe I should just do the opposite whenever I have an urge to try a riskier move - self-contrarian trading so to speak haha.

Either way, just shows how important it is not to bet on one strategy when trading.

"quantitative strategy to the tee" what does that mean?

Figure out different potential scenarios and balance a strategy around all of them simultaneously in proportions that would let me sleep well regardless of what happens. Then let it ride out while refusing to succumb to impulses to re-adjust cause of "omg rally" or "omg dump".

Basically, figure out some prices that you could see happening, then set up individual trades that would profit/lose within a range that you like and then adjust the sum of the events in a way that stays within a band that you're happy with. If done right you're prepared for all eventualities. Basically just very thorough risk management.

Edit: Same shit as balancing a portfolio of stocks and other crap. Just with Bitcoin price targets being the "stocks".

This could be a good summary of my own experience, too. Figure out in advance, place your chips carefully and don't steer continuously or you'll get at least slightly fucked.

[d_eddie]

By the way, I don't believe the current market move in the slightest. No moon yet, gentlemen. Relax. This is just a longer, slower short squeeze along the way to the final, brutal crevice.

Accordingly - my money where my mouth is - I've closed my short with a small-mid profit (take profit limit just under my entry) and reopened it a bit higher. It's smaller, too, but I'm afraid to make it grow too quickly. An incremental ladder à la (reverse) JJG/JB is better in my experience.

To fellow tactical shorters (I'm thinking HM and others) - LDOH! (that's hodl in reverse).