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Question: Closing BTC Price June 17:
$0 - 4 (3%)
<$6,500 - 7 (5.3%)
$6,500-$6,750 - 1 (0.8%)
$6,751-$7,000 - 2 (1.5%)
$7,001-$7,250 - 3 (2.3%)
$7,251-$7,500 - 6 (4.5%)
$7,501-$7,750 - 4 (3%)
$7,751-$8,000 - 12 (9.1%)
$8,001-$8,250 - 13 (9.8%)
$8,251-$8,500 - 7 (5.3%)
$8,501-$8,750 - 6 (4.5%)
$8,751-$9,000 - 11 (8.3%)
$9,001,$9,250 - 13 (9.8%)
$9,251-$9,500 - 17 (12.9%)
>$9,500 - 17 (12.9%)
$20,000 - 9 (6.8%)
Total Voters: 132

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 21225906 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (64 posts by 15 users deleted.)
JayJuanGee
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How much alt coin diversification is needed? 0%?


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December 22, 2018, 12:41:07 AM

bitcoin will remain at 4000 for the year, but top-10 altcoins will grow due to oversold, BCH especially. In 2015, bitcoin was 200 all year, and litecoin grew from 1.3 to 8


We are not in 2015 anymore, Dorothy.  
Sure, but markets without obvious fundamentals trade the same. The absolute numbers are irrelevant here.

Do you believe that fundamentals of BTC and market dynamics are similar to early 2015?  Do you believe that charts match up, and so we are going to experience similar dynamics in early 2019 as we saw in early 2015?  

Sure, it is possible, but how much weight are you going to give to such a scenario?  How much you going to bet on such a scenario to play out?  Personally, I would not bet much on that, and even betting anywhere close to 50% on such a scenario playing out seems quite imprudent to me, but hey, to each their own.

By the way, I am not suggesting that Bitcoin does not have a fairly heavy burden to get back above $6k and to stay above $6k, I am just questioning the likelihood of painting either doom and gloom scenarios or flat price scenarios for BTC that drag out a long time based on prior charts and attempting to place a lot of credence in previous patterns.
Fundamentals of BTC can not be properly quantified right now, hence a market without "obvious" fundamentals.

Huh?  Why does it matter?  I recall taking courses in economics, and I would frequently criticize some of the theories for attempting to place too much quantification on various aspects of human behaviors, but it does not hurt to make attempts and in the end, some people are going to be better (and more accurate) at such quantifications than others, even while there are going to be areas of uncertainties and even, perhaps, misplaced concreteness.


In stocks you can calculate (or just read) almost all the data you need to project revenue and profits and thus a band for your ROI.

Of course, the longer the history and the more mature (and even comparable) the asset class is going to cause predictive models to be more accurate.


With crypto this is completely and utterly impossible right now.

Never say never.

You seems to be creating more futility than is warranted with your statement of absolutisms, here.


Which is also why the market is doing its usual technicals driven ups and downs with no obvious walls given by fundamental analysis.

Huh?  You are losing me.

From my understanding, our current BTC price dynamics is experiencing a considerable amount of price battle, which is demonstrated by recent increases in trade volume (measured in dollars), so there is a price battle going on and we will find out which way the price goes from such battle.  Does not seem to be different from the usual bitcoin situation, and many folks who watch the bitcoin space are going to understand that it becomes much more difficult for any small group to manipulate BTC prices when trade volumes are high.  In other words, it is going to cost a lot of fucking money (or value) to manipulate BTC prices during times like these (high trade volume) times, yet such high costs of manipulation and push also can have some potential for considerable profits for one side or the other to experience considerable gains if such side can get the BTC price to break into their preferred direction.

So there is frequently uncertainty regarding which way such price battle is going to play out including the current price battle, but that does not mean that there are not tools that peeps have in order to attempt to predict both the direction outcome and the degree in which it will break, assuming that it breaks (which is also not certain, because it could just end up going sideways and the battle reaches a truce, which seems like the lesser of the likely outcomes during periods in which the trade volume picks up like it currently has picked up).
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December 22, 2018, 12:58:03 AM
Merited by Majormax (1), JayJuanGee (1)

It sure looks the same to me Jay.



Of course, might look the same, in terms of the history, and that is fine, yet my question remains how much value you going to place in the future playing out the same way?  And, are you going to put your money on that?  Description is one thing, prediction is another thing, so my main point remains that there is danger to put too much weight on predictive value and even making dumb-ass assertion that you know how the future is going to play out, even if there are high odds of such.  Maybe you will assign 80% to such occurrence, and maybe someone else like me, might assign 45% to such occurrence.  In the end, I am not going to stop criticizing folks who make proclamations that seem to be assigning (or even implying such) too high probabilities to such scenarios, even if such scenarios actually play out or even if I also believe that such scenarios are the most likely of outcomes.

Here's the thing, in 2015 was there a global asset value crash? because that is what 2019 is looking like, so btc could do anything next year. No way I'd put money on a repeat for this reason. Maybe it will be a safe haven, and price will rise substantially, maybe price will go down as people need fiat to fund loss of job and equity from other assets.

Either way, financially, shit is going to be very interesting next year.  

A contact of mine who works in finance just asked me how he could buy 30,000 BTC on behalf of one of his clients

So uh anyone want to do an OTC give me a PM. Introduction only, DYOR yadda yadda

I told him to go speak to Cumberland as well.  

Maybe this is a safe haven play and we can expect more. They can't steal your btc but can steal from your bank account.
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December 22, 2018, 01:01:44 AM

A contact of mine who works in finance just asked me how he could buy 30,000 BTC on behalf of one of his clients

So uh anyone want to do an OTC give me a PM. Introduction only, DIYR yadda yadda

I told him to go speak to Cumberland as well. 

Ballzy if I had to use a descriptor..    Anyone throwing 125 mio down right now has obviously been training with Bob. Is this just a "contact"? or a friend? If a friend you might caution them that we are probably not out of the woods as of yet.

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December 22, 2018, 01:02:41 AM

bitcoin will remain at 4000 for the year, but top-10 altcoins will grow due to oversold, BCH especially. In 2015, bitcoin was 200 all year, and litecoin grew from 1.3 to 8


We are not in 2015 anymore, Dorothy.  
Sure, but markets without obvious fundamentals trade the same. The absolute numbers are irrelevant here.

Do you believe that fundamentals of BTC and market dynamics are similar to early 2015?  Do you believe that charts match up, and so we are going to experience similar dynamics in early 2019 as we saw in early 2015?  

Sure, it is possible, but how much weight are you going to give to such a scenario?  How much you going to bet on such a scenario to play out?  Personally, I would not bet much on that, and even betting anywhere close to 50% on such a scenario playing out seems quite imprudent to me, but hey, to each their own.

By the way, I am not suggesting that Bitcoin does not have a fairly heavy burden to get back above $6k and to stay above $6k, I am just questioning the likelihood of painting either doom and gloom scenarios or flat price scenarios for BTC that drag out a long time based on prior charts and attempting to place a lot of credence in previous patterns.

Might be a noob question, but could you short sell BTC back in 2015? Where could you short sell BTC for the first time and when was it?

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December 22, 2018, 01:03:17 AM

Yeah I have NFI who the end client is.  And if they have that much fiat to throw around they are a player and can take care of themselves.
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December 22, 2018, 01:04:44 AM
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Might be a noob question, but could you short sell BTC back in 2015? Where could you short sell BTC for the first time and when was it?



Yes Bitfinex.  I think they opened in 2012. 
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December 22, 2018, 01:07:38 AM

A contact of mine who works in finance just asked me how he could buy 30,000 BTC on behalf of one of his clients

So uh anyone want to do an OTC give me a PM. Introduction only, DYOR yadda yadda

I told him to go speak to Cumberland as well.  

This would be easy.  Just pick an exchange like Coinbase and put up 1000 BTC buy walls until you have what you want.  Plenty of bears and panicking newbs around now days to sell into them.
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December 22, 2018, 01:15:55 AM

This would be easy.  Just pick an exchange like Coinbase and put up 1000 BTC buy walls until you have what you want.  Plenty of bears and panicking newbs around now days to sell into them.


Its really not all that easy as you would think. Even a 1k buy could move the price quite substantially..not to mention fee's. As in most cases its a time factor however.
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December 22, 2018, 01:19:22 AM


I find it strange that this is not reflected in the volume data for more reputable exchanges like Stamp.
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December 22, 2018, 01:28:06 AM

Fuck.

It's unlikely the CFTC will act in time for ICE to launch Bakkt as planned on Jan. 24, CoinDesk has learned.

https://twitter.com/coindesk/status/1076285284654989313
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December 22, 2018, 01:31:10 AM

In case anyone is wondering what Micgoossens is doing, I have set up a live camera of him for anyone who wants to watch live as he tries to scam people into buying imaginary, valueless shitcoins instead of physical metals:

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December 22, 2018, 01:33:31 AM


I find it strange that this is not reflected in the volume data for more reputable exchanges like Stamp.


Oh its there..but perhaps a bit more cleverly masked..  Volume has been up since the sell off started mid Nov. and at the end of the month someone started buying the dumps. Its pretty much continued thru Dec. until a week ago when the dumper either ran out of coin or...something else happened. #dyor
 
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December 22, 2018, 01:40:40 AM

BFX introduces margin trading for USDT.  I can’t even

http://blog.bitfinex.com/announcements/bitfinex-introduces-margin-trading-usdtusd/

Makes no fucking sense except in the context that they're attempting to detach USDT from being dollar interchangable and trying to convert it into it's own cryptocurrency blockchain (aka worthless and can't be cashed in).
It's like a bank heist where they just steal all the money then give you back an imaginary, valueless token.

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December 22, 2018, 01:45:43 AM

The volume is solid but it’s not spectacular.   It definitely is not the largest ever.  We know 90% of the volume on most exchanges listed on Coinmarketcap is fake. 
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December 22, 2018, 01:50:00 AM

Image of guy shitting, bitcoin stable. All looks fine to me. Good night.


BFX introduces margin trading for USDT.  I can’t even

http://blog.bitfinex.com/announcements/bitfinex-introduces-margin-trading-usdtusd/

Makes no fucking sense except in the context that they're attempting to detach USDT from being dollar interchangable and trying to convert it into it's own cryptocurrency blockchain (aka worthless and can't be cashed in).
It's like a bank heist where they just steal all the money then give you back an imaginary, valueless token.



And then they steal back the worthless token.

bitserve
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December 22, 2018, 01:57:00 AM

BFX introduces margin trading for USDT.  I can’t even

http://blog.bitfinex.com/announcements/bitfinex-introduces-margin-trading-usdtusd/

Makes no fucking sense except in the context that they're attempting to detach USDT from being dollar interchangable and trying to convert it into it's own cryptocurrency blockchain (aka worthless and can't be cashed in).
It's like a bank heist where they just steal all the money then give you back an imaginary, valueless token.



It makes all the fucking sense. Now you can short your Tether stash to hedge it for an added stability/safety.
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December 22, 2018, 02:00:44 AM

It makes all the fucking sense. Now you can short your Tether stash to hedge it for an added stability/safety.

Except you are shorting it on BFX.... 
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December 22, 2018, 02:01:16 AM
Last edit: December 22, 2018, 02:12:25 AM by Toxic2040

The volume is solid but it’s not spectacular.   It definitely is not the largest ever.  We know 90% of the volume on most exchanges listed on Coinmarketcap is fake.  

Maybe 15.11.4?  Somewhere in the neighborhood of 105k on the buy side..33k on the sell.

*edit*
Looks like 13.12.18 actually..whatever...   And really on further reflection..this is all exchanges now. There are many more today then previous years.

There are more coins being traded in more places so perhaps there is some sense to it after all.
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December 22, 2018, 02:01:32 AM

BFX introduces margin trading for USDT.  I can’t even

http://blog.bitfinex.com/announcements/bitfinex-introduces-margin-trading-usdtusd/

Makes no fucking sense except in the context that they're attempting to detach USDT from being dollar interchangable and trying to convert it into it's own cryptocurrency blockchain (aka worthless and can't be cashed in).
It's like a bank heist where they just steal all the money then give you back an imaginary, valueless token.

https://i.imgur.com/Yh3Y20m.gif

It makes all the fucking sense. Now you can short your Tether stash to hedge it for an added stability/safety.

You do not initiate a 'flight to safety' by opening a short on anything.  You would simply dump your Tether and buy another asset instead and withdrawl it off the fraudulent exchange Bitfinex.
bitserve
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December 22, 2018, 02:06:29 AM

It makes all the fucking sense. Now you can short your Tether stash to hedge it for an added stability/safety.

Except you are shorting it on BFX....  


Yeah, I didn't say it was the best idea Smiley
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