Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[samson]

lookat it this way ppl who heard about btc recently are still in the queue for banks transfer.

Other who bought recently already stored their coins.

Exchanges are gonna run dry soon.

When they run dry what do you think will happen ?

I guess people will either stop buying or people will sell.

While I'm replying to you, I seem to remember back in April that you said you dumped a massive amount of coins and was going to buy it back up to the previous level (the old reduce the price on high sell volume and increase it on low volume trick) but MtGox froze the market for a cooling off period before you had the chance to rebuy on low volume and inflate the price again.

Are you still manipulating the market to such levels with your huge amounts of Bitcoin ?

[DeathAndTaxes]

btcchina is in pause at 6158??

For the last 18 minutes ago, it's strange

they are waiting for dumps.

No the feed (or exchange itself) is broken.  There hasn't been a trade reported in 21 minutes. 

[adamstgBit]

Gotta love Bitcoin.

It drops over $300 within minutes in a flash dump and all it will probably amount to is a long bottom wick on a green candle.

Slowed down the assault on $1000 though.

Right, market would probably easily absorb another 5k Sell!?

Another 5k sell takes us down just below 600. A 5k buy takes us up to almost a grand.

Holy crap, its so thin.

Money (both coins and dollars) is being pulled out to sit on the sideline.  It is going to take the market either crashing down hard or "crashing" up hard for that bid/ask depth to come back.

this is why everyone should expect a crazy volatility market, and not be worried about it, just let the market do its thing.

i'm confident we will end up much higher, maybe not tomorrow...

[Boxman90]

More and more am I starting to believe that BTCChina is (for a large part) fake.

- Their volume reports are ridiculous. On the 3 minute chart they have almost exclusively 300 btc per candlestick.
- The whole rise-up at BTC-China seems orchestrated. Every sharp rise is nicely crafted into a short dip which then recovers in order to make others believe that it's safe to buy

And most compellingly

- During the crash the volume stays _THE SAME_ throughout. There is a sharp drop, but no panic selling at all! The volume is constant. This does not make any sense to me.
- Notice how every downward candle towards is also attempted to be caugt immediately - many many intermittent recoveries during a crash. It just doesn't make sense.

It's almost as if the whole exchange is scripted to make fake orders to amplify any movements seen on Gox. Zero trading fees would allow this.

=== I'm just speculating here ===

[jatajuta]

More and more am I starting to believe that BTCChina is (for a large part) fake.

- Their volume reports are ridiculous. On the 3 minute chart they have almost exclusively 300 btc per candlestick.
- The whole rise-up at BTC-China seems orchestrated. Every sharp rise is nicely crafted into a short dip which then recovers in order to make others believe that it's safe to buy

And most compellingly

- During the crash the volume stays _THE SAME_ throughout. There is a sharp drop, but no panic selling at all! The volume is constant. This does not make any sense to me.
- Notice how every downward candle towards is also attempted to be caugt immediately - many many intermittent recoveries during a crash. It just doesn't make sense.

It's almost as if the whole exchange is scripted to make fake orders to amplify any movements seen on Gox. Zero trading fees would allow this.

=== I'm just speculating here ===

It seems more reasonable to believe that chinese people want to extract fiat from their country, that could explain the huge difference in price, this is more reasonable for me considering how strict the chinese government is regarding international transfers.

[macsga]

More and more am I starting to believe that BTCChina is (for a large part) fake.

- Their volume reports are ridiculous. On the 3 minute chart they have almost exclusively 300 btc per candlestick.
- The whole rise-up at BTC-China seems orchestrated. Every sharp rise is nicely crafted into a short dip which then recovers in order to make others believe that it's safe to buy

And most compellingly

- During the crash the volume stays _THE SAME_ throughout. There is a sharp drop, but no panic selling at all! The volume is constant. This does not make any sense to me.
- Notice how every downward candle towards is also attempted to be caugt immediately - many many intermittent recoveries during a crash. It just doesn't make sense.

It's almost as if the whole exchange is scripted to make fake orders to amplify any movements seen on Gox. Zero trading fees would allow this.

=== I'm just speculating here ===

Expect to see volumes much smaller than this in the near future (as the price goes sky high). This is normal. (I'm just speculating here as well)
 

[BitPirate]

More and more am I starting to believe that BTCChina is (for a large part) fake.

- Their volume reports are ridiculous. On the 3 minute chart they have almost exclusively 300 btc per candlestick.
- The whole rise-up at BTC-China seems orchestrated. Every sharp rise is nicely crafted into a short dip which then recovers in order to make others believe that it's safe to buy

And most compellingly

- During the crash the volume stays _THE SAME_ throughout. There is a sharp drop, but no panic selling at all! The volume is constant. This does not make any sense to me.
- Notice how every downward candle towards is also attempted to be caugt immediately - many many intermittent recoveries during a crash. It just doesn't make sense.

It's almost as if the whole exchange is scripted to make fake orders to amplify any movements seen on Gox. Zero trading fees would allow this.

=== I'm just speculating here ===

It seems more reasonable to believe that chinese people want to extract fiat from their currency, that could explain the huge difference in price, this is more reasonable for me considering how strict the chinese government is regarding international transfers.

I don't think it is orchestrated, but I think you are underestimating how the 0 fee changes behaviour. You buy, wait for a tiny rise, sell, wait, buy... etc.... you can make money but tend to want to lock it in very quickly. As a result ,the "volume" is massively exaggerated, when in fact it is relatively little BTC changing hands.... but makes for a very exciting and addictive game of pass the bag.

This is single-handedly responsible for the "China effect".

How many times now have we heard that BTC China has a "coin shortage" on the exchange? Ahem...

[macsga]

$800/BTC

[BitThink]

More and more am I starting to believe that BTCChina is (for a large part) fake.

- Their volume reports are ridiculous. On the 3 minute chart they have almost exclusively 300 btc per candlestick.
- The whole rise-up at BTC-China seems orchestrated. Every sharp rise is nicely crafted into a short dip which then recovers in order to make others believe that it's safe to buy

And most compellingly

- During the crash the volume stays _THE SAME_ throughout. There is a sharp drop, but no panic selling at all! The volume is constant. This does not make any sense to me.
- Notice how every downward candle towards is also attempted to be caugt immediately - many many intermittent recoveries during a crash. It just doesn't make sense.

It's almost as if the whole exchange is scripted to make fake orders to amplify any movements seen on Gox. Zero trading fees would allow this.

=== I'm just speculating here ===

What's the motivation of this fake?

About the crash volume,  it's most likely due to the lag. During the panic time, orders were pending for minutes. So the volume is restricted. Whether this is due to system capacity or manual manipulation is the question.

[Vycid]

More and more am I starting to believe that BTCChina is (for a large part) fake.

- Their volume reports are ridiculous. On the 3 minute chart they have almost exclusively 300 btc per candlestick.
- The whole rise-up at BTC-China seems orchestrated. Every sharp rise is nicely crafted into a short dip which then recovers in order to make others believe that it's safe to buy

And most compellingly

- During the crash the volume stays _THE SAME_ throughout. There is a sharp drop, but no panic selling at all! The volume is constant. This does not make any sense to me.
- Notice how every downward candle towards is also attempted to be caugt immediately - many many intermittent recoveries during a crash. It just doesn't make sense.

It's almost as if the whole exchange is scripted to make fake orders to amplify any movements seen on Gox. Zero trading fees would allow this.

=== I'm just speculating here ===

It seems more reasonable to believe that chinese people want to extract fiat from their currency, that could explain the huge difference in price, this is more reasonable for me considering how strict the chinese government is regarding international transfers.

I don't think it is orchestrated, but I think you are underestimating how the 0 fee changes behaviour. You buy, wait for a tiny rise, sell, wait, buy... etc.... you can make money but tend to want to lock it in very quickly. As a result ,the "volume" is massively exaggerated, when in fact it is relatively little BTC changing hands.... but makes for a very exciting and addictive game of pass the bag.

This is single-handedly responsible for the "China effect".

It's funny, but I think btcchina has taken the crown away from SatoshiDice / JustDice.

[jl2012]

More and more am I starting to believe that BTCChina is (for a large part) fake.

- Their volume reports are ridiculous. On the 3 minute chart they have almost exclusively 300 btc per candlestick.
- The whole rise-up at BTC-China seems orchestrated. Every sharp rise is nicely crafted into a short dip which then recovers in order to make others believe that it's safe to buy

And most compellingly

- During the crash the volume stays _THE SAME_ throughout. There is a sharp drop, but no panic selling at all! The volume is constant. This does not make any sense to me.
- Notice how every downward candle towards is also attempted to be caugt immediately - many many intermittent recoveries during a crash. It just doesn't make sense.

It's almost as if the whole exchange is scripted to make fake orders to amplify any movements seen on Gox. Zero trading fees would allow this.

=== I'm just speculating here ===

I can testify that's true. I sold at those ridiculous price and always got the CNY out

[Voodah]

More and more am I starting to believe that BTCChina is (for a large part) fake.

- Their volume reports are ridiculous. On the 3 minute chart they have almost exclusively 300 btc per candlestick.
- The whole rise-up at BTC-China seems orchestrated. Every sharp rise is nicely crafted into a short dip which then recovers in order to make others believe that it's safe to buy

And most compellingly

- During the crash the volume stays _THE SAME_ throughout. There is a sharp drop, but no panic selling at all! The volume is constant. This does not make any sense to me.
- Notice how every downward candle towards is also attempted to be caugt immediately - many many intermittent recoveries during a crash. It just doesn't make sense.

It's almost as if the whole exchange is scripted to make fake orders to amplify any movements seen on Gox. Zero trading fees would allow this.

=== I'm just speculating here ===

A couple days ago, when the Gox guys fell asleep and trading was down for like 7-8 hours I noticed that during most of that time volume in BTCChina completely mimicked that of Gox and went to almost 0.

It is true that everyone kind of put everything on hold till Gox restarted, but the same thing did not happen on Bitstamp nor BTC-e.

I remember having all 4 bitcoinity screens open and noticing this. I will try to go back and see if I can find that moment.

EDIT: My conclusion at the time was that the same big money players are heavily arbitraging everywhere.

[Sitarow]

[Boxman90]

A couple days ago, when the Gox guys fell asleep and trading was down for like 7-8 hours I noticed that during most of that time volume in BTCChina completely mimicked that of Gox and went to almost 0.

It is true that everyone kind of put everything on hold till Gox restarted, but the same thing did not happen on Bitstamp nor BTC-e.

I remember having all 4 bitcoinity screens open and noticing this. I will try to go back and see if I can find that moment.

EDIT: My conclusion at the time was that the same big money players are heavily arbitraging everywhere.

Yes, I saw that happening too. BTC-e and Bitstamp had some normal organic trades, while BTCChina ground to a halttogether with MtGox. Good that you bring it up. It fits my hypothesis (which is only a hypothesis at best)

As a reply to the guy asking what they would benefit: it's evident this rally is based upon "CHINA IS GOING CRAZY BUY BUY BUY". Knowing that, and having the power, and having money at the other exchanges, you can influence the movements and make a killing.

[ChartBuddy]

[BitThink]

A couple days ago, when the Gox guys fell asleep and trading was down for like 7-8 hours I noticed that during most of that time volume in BTCChina completely mimicked that of Gox and went to almost 0.

It is true that everyone kind of put everything on hold till Gox restarted, but the same thing did not happen on Bitstamp nor BTC-e.

I remember having all 4 bitcoinity screens open and noticing this. I will try to go back and see if I can find that moment.

EDIT: My conclusion at the time was that the same big money players are heavily arbitraging everywhere.

Yes, I saw that happening too. BTC-e and Bitstamp had some normal organic trades, while BTCChina ground to a halttogether with MtGox. Good that you bring it up. It fits my hypothesis (which is only a hypothesis at best)

As a reply to the guy asking what they would benefit: it's evident this rally is based upon "CHINA IS GOING CRAZY BUY BUY BUY". Knowing that, and having the power, and having money at the other exchanges, you can influence the movements and make a killing.

Even the BTC market is small, the attempt to manipulate the whole world with one exchange is too ambitious IMHO.

[derpinheimer]

More and more am I starting to believe that BTCChina is (for a large part) fake.

- Their volume reports are ridiculous. On the 3 minute chart they have almost exclusively 300 btc per candlestick.
- The whole rise-up at BTC-China seems orchestrated. Every sharp rise is nicely crafted into a short dip which then recovers in order to make others believe that it's safe to buy

And most compellingly

- During the crash the volume stays _THE SAME_ throughout. There is a sharp drop, but no panic selling at all! The volume is constant. This does not make any sense to me.
- Notice how every downward candle towards is also attempted to be caugt immediately - many many intermittent recoveries during a crash. It just doesn't make sense.

It's almost as if the whole exchange is scripted to make fake orders to amplify any movements seen on Gox. Zero trading fees would allow this.

=== I'm just speculating here ===

Thats really quite interesting. You'll also notice areas on BTC China where there is mysteriously no volume at all, and then it picks up again.

The reason this matters is the other markets are blindly following China. Gox has started to diverge since ~$500, showing some major resistance to upwards movement, but it cant go down with China going up so much-- at least for long.

Also.. wtf, China went up over 100% in 24 hours? And the Gox bid sum is tanking, all the way down to ~ $20mill now?

[bnjmnkent]

A couple days ago, when the Gox guys fell asleep and trading was down for like 7-8 hours I noticed that during most of that time volume in BTCChina completely mimicked that of Gox and went to almost 0.

It is true that everyone kind of put everything on hold till Gox restarted, but the same thing did not happen on Bitstamp nor BTC-e.

I remember having all 4 bitcoinity screens open and noticing this. I will try to go back and see if I can find that moment.

EDIT: My conclusion at the time was that the same big money players are heavily arbitraging everywhere.

Yes, I saw that happening too. BTC-e and Bitstamp had some normal organic trades, while BTCChina ground to a halttogether with MtGox. Good that you bring it up. It fits my hypothesis (which is only a hypothesis at best)

As a reply to the guy asking what they would benefit: it's evident this rally is based upon "CHINA IS GOING CRAZY BUY BUY BUY". Knowing that, and having the power, and having money at the other exchanges, you can influence the movements and make a killing.

Even the BTC market is small, the attempt to manipulate the whole world with one exchange is too ambitious IMHO.

That's why manipulators act over multiple exchanges at the same time.

[Boxman90]

Even the BTC market is small, the attempt to manipulate the whole world with one exchange is too ambitious IMHO.

I don't think so. Everybody knows what everybody looks at: price and volume. It is general consensus (wrongfully) that the exchange with the highest volume is the 'leading' exchange.

Both price and volume can be easily faked. Make it onto the generic chart indexers, and you have yourself a perfectly orchestrated fake 'leading' exchange.

Also, notice how nobody is actually able to access btcchina.com at all, apparently for several days now.

[BitThink]

Even the BTC market is small, the attempt to manipulate the whole world with one exchange is too ambitious IMHO.

I don't think so. Everybody knows what everybody looks at: price and volume. It is general consensus (wrongfully) that the exchange with the highest volume is the 'leading' exchange.

Both price and volume can be easily faked. Make it onto the generic chart indexers, and you have yourself a perfectly orchestrated fake 'leading' exchange.

Also, notice how nobody is actually able to access btcchina.com at all, apparently for several days now.

volume may be fake, but if you make fake bids, how about they get filled? I never failed in selling my BTC there (now I wish I had failed).

FYI, I just bought 0.18 BTC there one hour ago. It was slow and laggy in processing, but still can be accessed.