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Question: 9/19 Closing Price:
0 - 1 (1.6%)
<$10,000 - 3 (4.8%)
$10,000-$10,500 - 2 (3.2%)
$10,501-$11,000 - 13 (20.6%)
$11,001-$11,500 - 19 (30.2%)
$11,501-$12,000 - 8 (12.7%)
$12,001-$12,500 - 7 (11.1%)
$12,501-$13,000 - 2 (3.2%)
>$13,000 - 3 (4.8%)
>$20,000 - 5 (7.9%)
Total Voters: 63

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 22594791 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (148 posts by 37 users deleted.)
JayJuanGee
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January 28, 2019, 05:47:27 PM



I understand that you are not talking about 100% of a guy(gal)'s total investment portfolio, but likely instead you are referring to NOT going "all in" with what portion of value the guy/gal has allocated towards bitcoin investing.

Personally, I never recommend going "all in" but instead always being prepared for either price direction (both in other words).





I have to admit that I am not trading BTC myself, but I respond to trading related posts . My trading occurs mainly in the normal stock market. I have found it is always easier to make correct calls when there is no real position at stake : Emotions don't come into play so much.

The BTCT forum has become a theoretical testing ground for me, and I just offer my own opinion FWIW along with all the other mixed content.

So, I just think myself into the position of a trader when I make that sort of post. TBH, I am looking at BTC rather like a long term growth stock (Buffett style investing, if you like) . Like a stock, I like to be aware that total loss is a possibility. My own approach is probably at odds with most other posters here, but thats why I like to give my view, for variety (it might seem like devils advocate sometimes, but that is not deliberate).

I would always advise being prepared for a move in either direction, whatever you are trading. I eventually made my whole business from trading (various instruments) over many decades, and it is not an easy option. My best advice for a would be trader is , don't do it at all, unless you are psychologically prepared for regular losses.

O.k.  Fair enough.  But you diverted and avoided answering the hypothetical, which was a situation in which someone has already put themselves in a very decent position by selling a decently large portion of his/her stash in the $10k to $19k arena... and now, such hypothetical majormax doctrine follower person is faced with a decision about what to do with the proceeds (80% sales of his/her BTC stash, something like that).  What to do, according to a majormax approach?
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January 28, 2019, 05:52:53 PM

Total waste of time pondering btc for Africans, S Americans, roaches.
It's not for the poor, it's for extremely hnw individuals.
Not just 'be yer own bank', but 'be a bank' to the unwashed.

Repeating a lie over and over does not make it true.  It's not possible to "be your own bank" using bitcoin.  It has built-in, rent seeking middlemen (transaction validators) and doesn't remove counterparty risk.  The only way to be your own bank is with a physical commodity currency like silver and gold that doesn't have these problems.  None of you are your own bank, you're at the mercy of designed to centralize mining cartels who you must both bribe and ask permission to in order to transact at all.
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January 28, 2019, 05:53:26 PM

Charlie Lee adding Confidential Transactions to his shitcoin. https://twitter.com/SatoshiLite/status/1089935081337085952
Weird I never expected litecoins to get an anonymity feature of any type. Let's see how this plays out.
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January 28, 2019, 06:06:26 PM



https://twitter.com/SoundMoneyz/status/1089216802100572161

another FUCK you @rogerver, sorry couldn't cover this F*** word, I hope you guys understand.

I did see the twitter link, but I did not actually find that chart in any easy to find location on the bitcoin.com website.  I did see that on the bitcoin.com website, you could "Start buying Bitcoin Cash (BCH) and Bitcoin Core (BTC) with your credit card today!"  Roger's ongoing tactics show that he really is filled with butthurt.

There are some recent hypothesizing that if he does not get thrown in jail in the coming years, he will likely, inevitably, end up coming back to bitcoin.. but I have some difficult times seeing that anytime soon, and he may just go down with the ship and keep Bcash alive for 30 years, finding ways to profit off his ongoing scam and deception in this wild wild west of crypto, and really there are plenty of status quo that would not mind funding his ongoing deceptions in an effort to continue to attempt to undermine bitcoin.
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Free Bird Fly


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January 28, 2019, 06:27:50 PM

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nothing to see here


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January 28, 2019, 06:33:59 PM

There are some recent hypothesizing that if he does not get thrown in jail in the coming years, he will likely, inevitably, end up coming back to bitcoin.. but I have some difficult times seeing that anytime soon, and he may just go down with the ship and keep Bcash alive for 30 years, finding ways to profit off his ongoing scam and deception in this wild wild west of crypto, and really there are plenty of status quo that would not mind funding his ongoing deceptions in an effort to continue to attempt to undermine bitcoin.

Honestly, i'd rather know that he is behind bars instead of seeing his face at BTC again.
My first and ever BCH transaction took 22 minutes to confirm, btw.
JayJuanGee
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January 28, 2019, 06:36:17 PM

Under $3,400 let's see what sticks or maybe the bottom isn't in.

Now its above $3,400.

Seriously, you guys should stop biting off your nails at every $100 mark test. The bottom is currently $3220, or thereabouts -- almost $200 away. It's not time to get out the revolver or the cyanide until it breaks clean below $3200.

Regarding current bottom, you are $100 off, which could make a difference, these days.

Our current bottom is $3,122 on December 15 (As always, talking about our WO reference of Stamp here, of course). 
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January 28, 2019, 06:38:24 PM

Under $3,400 let's see what sticks or maybe the bottom isn't in.

Now its above $3,400.

Seriously, you guys should stop biting off your nails at every $100 mark test. The bottom is currently $3220, or thereabouts -- almost $200 away. It's not time to get out the revolver or the cyanide until it breaks clean below $3200.
didn't kill blondie yet...
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January 28, 2019, 06:40:34 PM

Is the doomsday near?
this is so heart breaking... liqui.io was not a big exchange but still... its happening 1+1+1+.....



Liqui has been always a shady exchange. Thanks for letting us know.

Does not look shady if they are giving everyone's money back.
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January 28, 2019, 06:44:58 PM
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The most surprising here are India and Indonesia. I thought compared to how popular is internet in India and how popular are Gold and cash there, Bitcoin is way behind. I guess just news dont come out.
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January 28, 2019, 06:48:28 PM

There are some recent hypothesizing that if he does not get thrown in jail in the coming years, he will likely, inevitably, end up coming back to bitcoin.. but I have some difficult times seeing that anytime soon, and he may just go down with the ship and keep Bcash alive for 30 years, finding ways to profit off his ongoing scam and deception in this wild wild west of crypto, and really there are plenty of status quo that would not mind funding his ongoing deceptions in an effort to continue to attempt to undermine bitcoin.

Honestly, i'd rather know that he is behind bars instead of seeing his face at BTC again.
My first and ever BCH transaction took 22 minutes to confirm, btw.

The odds of Roger going behind bars at any time in the near future don't seem too high right now, and seems merely like wishful thinking, even though we have seen Roger engaging in some pretty manipulative, emotional and childish behaviors....

Does his conduct in this BTC/crypto wild wild west cross criminal legal lines that would put him in jail?  And what jurisdiction is going to do it?  To me, it seems too early to speculate on that kind of wishful thinking.
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January 28, 2019, 06:49:06 PM

Is the doomsday near?
this is so heart breaking... liqui.io was not a big exchange but still... its happening 1+1+1+.....



Liqui has been always a shady exchange. Thanks for letting us know.

Does not look shady if they are giving everyone's money back.
Am I misunderstanding them? I figured if they can not guarantee liquidity for the current users that means they don't have what's in people's wallets online? Right
JayJuanGee
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January 28, 2019, 06:52:11 PM

Is the doomsday near?
this is so heart breaking... liqui.io was not a big exchange but still... its happening 1+1+1+.....



Liqui has been always a shady exchange. Thanks for letting us know.

Does not look shady if they are giving everyone's money back.
Am I misunderstanding them? I figured if they can not guarantee liquidity for the current users that means they don't have what's in people's wallets online? Right

Maybe it is unclear?  They said that users can get their money in 30 days (whether that part is true will be determined in 30 days, I suppose.. just enough time for a get away... hahahahahahaha).

I think that liquidity for trading and liquidity for refunding money are two different things.  In other words, they could have enough money to provide refunds, but not enough trading traffic to make their system work well (which they seem to assert that such lack of trading liquidity had been causing its own issues).
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January 28, 2019, 07:06:15 PM
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https://twitter.com/SoundMoneyz/status/1089216802100572161

another FUCK you @rogerver, sorry couldn't cover this F*** word, I hope you guys understand.
Two Bitcoin Hardforks (right and left leaning) argue who is the correct hardfork.
Hardforking creates trouble, without the 27 Dec. 2017 hardfork Bitcoin cash would not exist and none of the other 50 or so hardforks all because of a hardfork.
Down with hardforks, all of them.
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January 28, 2019, 07:14:50 PM
Last edit: January 28, 2019, 07:58:45 PM by Wekkel

A nice heart warming message. We may not have seen the low yet, but evidence of bottoming is increasing: https://twitter.com/woonomic/status/1089444492363485184?s=19
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January 28, 2019, 07:20:34 PM

Edit:
Also HM your "overlay" is incorrect.



Lies


In what sense is it incorrect?

It is simply incorrect because history rhymes. Your construction of overlay diminishes the obvious delay in timing from the previous movements to the current movements that are taking longer to develop. You will see soon enough when you shake it like a Polaroid picture!


Fair enough.  

I think that the halvening (supply reduction) remains the primary driver of price over the long term.   I also think that the “longening” (increase in Bitcoin price cycle time) is inconsistent with the halvening being fixed 4 year periods, more or less.

 In other words I do not believe in the longening and think it is just an artifact of historic price battles.  

We shall see soon enough whether I am wrong and the longening is a thing.  I would say that the longening is a thing if the price is still doing poorly, at or below this level in December.
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January 28, 2019, 07:20:47 PM



https://twitter.com/SoundMoneyz/status/1089216802100572161

another FUCK you @rogerver, sorry couldn't cover this F*** word, I hope you guys understand.
Two Bitcoin Hardforks (right and left leaning) argue who is the correct hardfork.
Hardforking creates trouble, without the 27 Dec. 2017 hardfork Bitcoin cash would not exist and none of the other 50 or so hardforks all because of a hardfork.
Down with hardforks, all of them.

Huh?   The bcash hardfork happened on August 1, 2017?  Are you referring to some additional event on Decembr 27?  or did you just get the date wrong?   
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January 28, 2019, 07:27:08 PM

via Imgflip Meme Generator
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January 28, 2019, 07:30:35 PM

In other news, Bob has been drafted by the NFL:

JayJuanGee
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January 28, 2019, 07:30:44 PM

Edit:
Also HM your "overlay" is incorrect.



Lies


In what sense is it incorrect?

It is simply incorrect because history rhymes. Your construction of overlay diminishes the obvious delay in timing from the previous movements to the current movements that are taking longer to develop. You will see soon enough when you shake it like a Polaroid picture!


Fair enough.  

I think that the halvening (supply reduction) remains the primary driver of price over the long term.   I also think that the “longening” (increase in Bitcoin price cycle time) is inconsistent with the halvening being fixed 4 year periods, more or less.

 In other words I do not believe in the longening and think it is just an artifact of historic price battles.  

We shall see soon enough whether I am wrong and the longening is a thing.  I would say that the longening is a thing if the price is still doing poorly, at or below this level in December.

A little bit of a strange speculative indicator that you raise here, namely "longening", and surely a long amount of history of several more cycles would likely be needed to determine with any kind of certainty whether a "longening" is actually happening.  I doubt that you would be able to determine such a phenomena from this exact cycle, even though it is not a bad talking point.

Regarding the halvening, the percentage of its affect in respect to BTC supply is certainly a less and less proportion of the bitcoin, so it will seem to have diminishing importance in the future, even though I would agree with you that today, that halvening plays a considerable role today, and perhaps bordering on a "primary driver" role as you assert.
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