Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[windjc]

^^^ the yellow line projection is not very likely because it suggests a flat until and even after July 2020.
Since halving would occur in May 2020, current prices would result in basically nobody being able to mine without a loss, so it is unlikely to happen.
In unlikely scenario that it would happen, most of current hashing power would disappear, undermining btc security.
If that happen, I don't see how btc would be able to remain the leader.

A more likely scenario would be for a bull to start 9-12 mo before halving or by Summer-Fall of 2019 at the latest.

Aye..you would think so. My thoughts are we could see 3 more sell offs this year to shake the last of the weak hands out before the next bull. April-May, June-July and November-December seem likely attack points for the bears. I think if we dont follow the white line on the previous chart it might be somewhat more of a S-curve like this.

W

I feel like your charts are often pull-from-thyne-ass.  Historically bear market lows have been set before 11 months prior to each halving. We should expect the same again.

[1714213634]

1714213634

[1714213634]

1714213634

[HairyMaclairy]

But let's be clear, the wearer of the MAGA hat wants to be perceived consistent with the MAGA brand values.  That's why they are wearing the hat.  

Here we have a demonstration of MAGA brand values.

Here we have a demonstration of the exact same kind of generalization that lead to Trump being elected president.


You're not very far from being the left-wing equivalent of the two referred to in the tweet with that kind of attitude by the way. Not using foul language and acting nice doesn't change the content or intent of your words, and agitating others directly or indirectly isn't any more commendable than the actions of those two twats are.

Our last argument clearly showed this as well. I initially assumed you were dispassionately arguing points, but you exceedingly reveal yourself as overly emotional and irrational.

Perhaps you may want to consider sticking to drawing charts instead of throwing even more gasoline on the dumpster fire that is politics.

Do you think Donald Trump is racist or do you think he is a supporter of ethnic minorities?

[Biodom]

Murad claims bottom to be found between 300 W MA and 400 W MA.

https://twitter.com/muststopmurad/status/1090762552102084614?s=21

That's just "numerology". What step back he is talking about?
There is nothing truly predictable in his desire for BTC to retrace  MA300 instead of MA 200, which it already did.
Gibberish.

Historically bear market lows have been set before 11 months prior to each halving. We should expect the same again.

The market low occurred on Jan 14 2015, halving was on July 09, 2016, almost exactly 18 mo later, unless you consider (on intraday move on Aug 24, 2015, which should NOT count) the low to be on Aug 24, 2015. In fact, it was low on that day (Aug 24, 2015) only on some exchanges, exchange average is $196, which is NOT the low of the cycle.

Prior halving was on Nov 28, 2012 with a low on Nov 17, 2011, so this was very close to 11 mo, being 12 mo and a few days.

I say that the low would lie (most likely) anywhere between 12-18 months before the halving, although the number of tries so far (two) is too small.
Therefore, the low being anywhere between Nov 2, 2018 (18 mo to May 2, 2020) and May 2, 2019 would make sense.
The flat between Dec 15, 2018 and May 2019 is the most probable scenario, IMHO.

[Searing]

Look at each coin in your crypto portfolio, which coins spark joy?

Just read this.... thought of you’re Guys answers———-> *grin* ??

'my joy' 'sparked' much higher at 18k BTC FYI...FML...

Brad

18K was a good trade. Most missed the spot.
However, once you sold a chunk, sooner or later you would feel stupid.
I have been through this on multiple occasions.
The best is to either not sell or sell and completely let that BTC go (from your heart).
Go to vacation, etc, etc.

yeah, I was just being an 'ass' the likelihood is I would have sold at 4k profit (4x) watched the spike to 18k with the 'illusion' I would have sold at the right time
and now it is 4.5k ....so logic wise...if I looked at when I likely would have punted a bunch of coin...it would have been at 4k before the pump...
as I did not know wtf was going on after that point...and still would have gotten lost in the lemming stampede of the bubble...probably..just would have been
the other way around, I'd have dumped too early and missed the bubble at the other end anyway...or so my thoughts with a 4x rise from 1k in Jan 2017 in the fall
when it was 4k price

brad

[Toxic2040]

I feel like your charts are often pull-from-thyne-ass.  Historically bear market lows have been set before 11 months prior to each halving. We should expect the same again.

I appreciate that. I will note that for the majority of traders the greatest mistake is having expectations.

[HairyMaclairy]

That's just "numerology". What step back he is talking about?
There is nothing truly predictable in his desire for BTC to retrace  MA300 instead of MA 200, which it already did.
Gibberish.

I don’t agree with him either but I think it’s fair to present bearish analysis.  I would prefer for us to have more altitude above the 200 W MA.

I appreciate that. I will note that for the majority of traders the greatest mistake is having expectations.

Risk free trades are good trades.

[realr0ach]

Do you think Donald Trump is racist or do you think he is a supporter of ethnic minorities?

Do you think minorities are supporters of white people when they brutally murder and torture them like every 15 seconds.

[Bitcoinaire]

Murad claims bottom to be found between 300 W MA and 400 W MA.

https://twitter.com/muststopmurad/status/1090762552102084614?s=21

Bear/Bull charts are good to see both sides of the coin. However, murad is the parabolictrav of this bear market. Like anonymint in late 2014/early 2015. Gibberish/numerology.....

[BTCMILLIONAIRE]

But let's be clear, the wearer of the MAGA hat wants to be perceived consistent with the MAGA brand values.  That's why they are wearing the hat.  

Here we have a demonstration of MAGA brand values.

Here we have a demonstration of the exact same kind of generalization that lead to Trump being elected president.


You're not very far from being the left-wing equivalent of the two referred to in the tweet with that kind of attitude by the way. Not using foul language and acting nice doesn't change the content or intent of your words, and agitating others directly or indirectly isn't any more commendable than the actions of those two twats are.

Our last argument clearly showed this as well. I initially assumed you were dispassionately arguing points, but you exceedingly reveal yourself as overly emotional and irrational.

Perhaps you may want to consider sticking to drawing charts instead of throwing even more gasoline on the dumpster fire that is politics.

Do you think Donald Trump is racist or do you think he is a supporter of ethnic minorities?

Completely irrelevant to what you've posted.

You've essentially demonized half the United States and implied that none of their concerns matter.

Which is also quite hypocritical given how you insisted that others should be heard and helped (which I by the way, unlike apparently you, agree with).

[Biodom]

Risk free trades are good trades.

never seen those, but I am not an insider.

[Bitcoinaire]

Potential Harmonic completion could run to 1.618 extension


https://twitter.com/cryptopicasso/status/1090783482744397824

[Elwar]

But let's be clear, the wearer of the MAGA hat wants to be perceived consistent with the MAGA brand values.  That's why they are wearing the hat.  

Here we have a demonstration of MAGA brand values.

You can tell it's not true because only dems use the term MAGA while Trump supports actually say the words "make America great again"

[jojo69]

It's this kinda shit and the pepe memes that make me not want to be here.

If you go you just concede the narrative here to your opponents.

[Toxic2040]

It's this kinda shit and the pepe memes that make me not want to be here.

If you go you just concede the narrative here to your opponents.

+1 WOsMerit

-----------
Time to test support at the 0.382 fib. I think another important milestone on the road to recovery will be seeing a better price consensus between certain exchanges.  #dyor

1h


4h

#stronghands

[DireWolfM14]

thats right please only discuss the dictatorship of the proletariat or else you will be liberated to one of our special farms in the far west

It's this kinda shit and the pepe memes that make me not want to be here.

Fucking leave then, go to your perfect Utopia where socialism reigns, I'm sure we can gather the funds to buy you a ticket to Venezuela.

To paraphrase Margaret Thatcher; the trouble with socialism is you eventually run out of other people's money to spend.

[JayJuanGee]

Risk free trades are good trades.

never seen those, but I am not an insider.

Hairy made the "risk free trades are good" statement, so what he means and what I am thinking could be a bit different. 

Nonetheless, it seems to me that if any peep is in the habit of preparing for either BTC price direction, then there are going to be times in which that peep is able to set up BTC trades in such a way to profit in the event of either price movement direction.

Even though it seems a bit more tricky to accomplish such balancing when a person is attempting to deal with margin trades, and since I don't actually employ the practice of margin trading, I can appreciate the description of scenarios in which even margin trading can be set up in such a way to accomplish an ability to profit from BTC price movements in either direction.

In other words, with BTC trading experience and setting up trades relatively conservatively, a person does not need to be an insider to structure trades to have a decently "risk free" dynamics. 

I consider many of my own trades and practice of trading to be set up in a kind of "risk free" dynamic, and the historical performance tends to accomplish my goals - especially helpful since overall the BTC price has gone up exorbitantly since I first got involved in both accumulating it and then later adjusting my practice to involve incremental and quasi-mechanical trading practices.

[xhomerx10]

Hello hodlers,

I had my account hacked in May, it took a lot of effort to recover it back, but today I'm really glad to be able to post here again with my original name

This is utterly bullish, because although I was pretty discrete during the last years bitcoin never had a rally without me posting "ccmf" or whatever in this thread, so I think my presence here is highly correlated with btc price and necessary for a rally.

Next 24h are critical

 I know it isn't Sunday but would you believe I penned this haiku for the eventual chapeau on a Sunday night shift at work?

 To erre is human
 Your avatar is devine
 Perfect on a hat




avatar-sized

 

 Welcome back

 

[JayJuanGee]

thats right please only discuss the dictatorship of the proletariat or else you will be liberated to one of our special farms in the far west

It's this kinda shit and the pepe memes that make me not want to be here.

Fucking leave then, go to your perfect Utopia where socialism reigns, I'm sure we can gather the funds to buy you a ticket to Venezuela.

To paraphrase Margaret Thatcher; the trouble with socialism is you eventually run out of other people's money to spend.

Reminds me of this one:



hahahaha

[JayJuanGee]

It's this kinda shit and the pepe memes that make me not want to be here.

If you go you just concede the narrative here to your opponents.

Yep.  no need to be so sensitive about some of the variety of hate-filled off-topic distractions, unless it gets into shitcoin pumping, then that's another story.

[windjc]

I feel like your charts are often pull-from-thyne-ass.  Historically bear market lows have been set before 11 months prior to each halving. We should expect the same again.

I appreciate that. I will note that for the majority of traders the greatest mistake is having expectations.

That’s a false belief.