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Question: How much of your corn do you plan on cashing out in the next massive bull run?
None - 21 (18.8%)
1-10% - 15 (13.4%)
11-20% - 13 (11.6%)
21-30% - 16 (14.3%)
31-40% - 4 (3.6%)
41-50% - 12 (10.7%)
51-60% - 8 (7.1%)
61-70% - 5 (4.5%)
71-80% - 3 (2.7%)
81-90% - 2 (1.8%)
91-99% - 3 (2.7%)
100% - 10 (8.9%)
Total Voters: 112

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 21782755 times)
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JimboToronto
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July 09, 2019, 05:32:21 PM
Last edit: July 09, 2019, 06:17:16 PM by JimboToronto
Merited by jojo69 (1), HairyMaclairy (1)

Hey Jimbo

how about a Blue Jays halfway report?

The Jays are doing about as well as expected in a rebuilding year with a team consisting mostly of rookies. 2 of the 3 highly-touted  sons-of-superstars prospects have already been brought up (Guerrero and Biggio) and are already excelling. The 3rd, Bo Bichette is waiting in the wings.

Last night Guerrero showed the rest of the world why we consider him the cornerstone on which we'll build our next championship team. His performance in the home run derby was historic, setting all-time records for the most home runs in the opening round, the semifinal round and overall. He may have lost the final round but he still stole the show.

Without making excuses for him, it should be noted that he was exhausted after doing a full extra round and 2 additional swing-offs in the semifinals, while the eventual winner got to rest up by facing weaker opponents in the first 2 rounds and quitting early due to batting second.
The night truly belonged to Vladi.

In the real world of the AL, Guerrero is still making adjustments. After an initial splash that saw him being named player of the week a couple of weeks in, opponents have stopped throwing fastballs to him. Once he masters hitting big-league breaking balls, watch out. The guy can flat-out hit. He has always hit for a high average and has incredible innate power and an amazing eye. He should be a consistent 4-digit OPS guy and a perennial MVP candidate.

The rest of the Jays' young core are progressing nicely as well. After a slow start and a trip to the minors, Lourdes Gurriel Jr has been among the league's offensive leaders and his move to left field has yielded immediate dividends. After a series of outfield assists, other teams are learning not to run on him. Rookie catcher Danny Jansen has been consistently solid behind the plate and has recently started hitting more consistently. Rowdy Tellez, Randall Grichuk and Teoscar Hernandez have also shown better-than-average defense and power at the plate but the latter is still striking out too much.

The reason for the Jays' dismal record is their pitching. The only reliable starter has been Marcus Stroman (with almost no run support) while Giles, Hudson and Biagini have been solid in the bullpen. Everyone else has pretty much sucked.

Pitching is what wins ballgames and the Jays don't have it yet. Hopefully by the time the young core gels and a few young pitching prospects develop, the team will add some solid veteran starters and bullpen arms to make a run for it. Until then they seem content to save money by throwing out other teams' washed-up scrubs and rejects.

As I said, it's a rebuilding year and as such, it can be painful to watch at times.
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July 09, 2019, 05:33:58 PM

Bitcoin crosses 64% dominance on cmc

The relentless Agony of the Alts...
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July 09, 2019, 05:43:38 PM

Bitcoin crosses 64% dominance on cmc

The relentless Agony of the Alts...

What hurts me more is the BTC count going down in Blockfolio app, even with a basket of coins being 96% BTC.
But then i see the usd total value, and i smile again..
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July 09, 2019, 05:46:16 PM

All this talk of to the moon 2020 or 2021 is silly. We all know the real moon is in 2022. Or maybe 2023.
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July 09, 2019, 05:52:30 PM

Bitcoin crosses 64% dominance on cmc

And XRP is included without even being a crypto... Tongue
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July 09, 2019, 05:55:08 PM
Last edit: July 09, 2019, 06:15:46 PM by sirazimuth

Bitcoin crosses 64% dominance on cmc

The relentless Agony of the Alts...

Very nice to see on cmc a sea of red except for BTC.

And speaking of alts, (yeah, sorry bout that)....
....the winner of pop and flop shitcoin-of-the-day is.... Egretia   <prolonged whoopee cushion sound>
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July 09, 2019, 05:59:44 PM

I am pretty sure shitton of people will be unloading their stashes like there is no tomorrow when btc starts to go above $50k. Not many will be left to hodl a full piece when it hits $100k.

When BTC goes above $100k and hits $1m, those who sold from $50k will be very sorry unless they owned and dumped at least 20 btc.

Yes, people tend to sell as if there is no tomorrow. We saw that when we reached the modest price 13800. People started selling so heavily that the profit turned into a loss for many. Only a day after the 13800, they kept selling down to 9700! We've seen many such crashes in 2017 and they all ended with 25%+ recovery. The next day it happened! We were back above 11K. I can only imagine how stupid those weak hands felt!

In the same way, we may have such crashes at any price level if the increase is too steep for a short time. We may fall from 50K to 30K for a day, and on the next day to be at 40K, and in 2 weeks above 50K. It could take longer, of course. It could take even a year, like in 2018. This won't be pleasant at all, of course. But if that is the price for becoming a millionaire, so be it!

I still remember 10 years ago, when I went into the bank and made a 5 year deposit with 4.5% year interest. I lived happily through those 5 years taking my profit. Until I heard of Bitcoin. What will be the interest of my Bitcoin deposit in 5 years? Incredibly high, for sure. Therefore, the price of suffering one more  bear year is insignificant compared to the prize after that.

And finally, if someone truly loves Bitcoin, he won't be happy to sell all of them and to stop watching the price. It just doesn't work. He will learn one way or another. After 5 years, when he spent  all of his fiat money, and hears on the news that Bitcoin reached a record heights 10x, 100x or more than the exit price, that feeling will kill all the joy he had when he sold them. Especially, if he has kids, who now have no money for a college or a medical treatment. My point is that we have to think in perspective - not for the next day, month, or year, but for a generation ahead. We have to be very careful what we sell and what we leave for the years to come. I've been thinking about it for 2 years and still don't have a clear and sound plan. I have to wait at least a year and see what will be the price after the next halving. Then I can make a better plan. And hopefully, my emotions won't interfere to sell most of it way too early! The other hard thing is to live with a profit that changes both ways by tens (hundreds, etc.) of thousands each day. That is no easy too! But this is our occupational hazard!
JimboToronto
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July 09, 2019, 06:25:37 PM

All this talk of to the moon 2020 or 2021 is silly. We all know the real moon is in 2022. Or maybe 2023.

No, we don't "all know" what will happen.

If history is any guide, the bubble top will be a year or so after the halving and BTC winter will be a year or 2 after that.
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July 09, 2019, 06:31:53 PM
Merited by Bitcoinaire (1)

Bitcoin crosses 64% dominance on cmc

The relentless Agony of the Alts...

What hurts me more is the BTC count going down in Blockfolio app, even with a basket of coins being 96% BTC.
But then i see the usd total value, and i smile again..

I kept a bit more than 4% alts, since I managed (way back) to trade the majority of them into profit, meaning the ones I've kept are at zero cost. 

Last bull run, I didn't sell my BTC, I sold alts for BTC and cashed out some $ that way.  So, it didn't particularly worry me to keep them and wait for the next 'alt season' this time around.

Yes, they have increased in $ terms, but I still feel I lost out by not flipping 'em over to BTC when I should have, of course. 

Rationally, they have still made more money than I could have made on anything else outside of crypto. So I know I really cannot complain.  But irrationally - knowing how much more it 'could have been' makes it a strangely annoying place to be in.

I guess it's proof of loss aversion theory; we all fear losing money more than we enjoy making it.
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July 09, 2019, 06:36:52 PM

All this talk of to the moon 2020 or 2021 is silly. We all know the real moon is in 2022. Or maybe 2023.

Apparently we all doesn't know.   Maybe you should 'splain ur selfie?

It's possible, also, yet maybe not in your speculation scenario, that we are in a correction period in 2022 and/or 2023 in preparation for the 2024 halvening. 

You consider  a possible upcoming correction cycle within your knowing more than everyone else scenario?
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July 09, 2019, 06:50:19 PM

All this talk of to the moon 2020 or 2021 is silly. We all know the real moon is in 2022. Or maybe 2023.

Apparently we all doesn't know.   Maybe you should 'splain ur selfie?

It's possible, also, yet maybe not in your speculation scenario, that we are in a correction period in 2022 and/or 2023 in preparation for the 2024 halvening. 

You consider  a possible upcoming correction cycle within your knowing more than everyone else scenario?

LOL, 'twas a joke. That was my point "we all doesn't know".
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July 09, 2019, 06:51:41 PM

This is cool AF.  Wow.

https://symphony.iohk.io/
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July 09, 2019, 06:52:51 PM
Merited by ivomm (1)

I am pretty sure shitton of people will be unloading their stashes like there is no tomorrow when btc starts to go above $50k. Not many will be left to hodl a full piece when it hits $100k.

When BTC goes above $100k and hits $1m, those who sold from $50k will be very sorry unless they owned and dumped at least 20 btc.

Yes, people tend to sell as if there is no tomorrow. We saw that when we reached the modest price 13800. People started selling so heavily that the profit turned into a loss for many. Only a day after the 13800, they kept selling down to 9700! We've seen many such crashes in 2017 and they all ended with 25%+ recovery. The next day it happened! We were back above 11K. I can only imagine how stupid those weak hands felt!

In the same way, we may have such crashes at any price level if the increase is too steep for a short time. We may fall from 50K to 30K for a day, and on the next day to be at 40K, and in 2 weeks above 50K. It could take longer, of course. It could take even a year, like in 2018. This won't be pleasant at all, of course. But if that is the price for becoming a millionaire, so be it!

I still remember 10 years ago, when I went into the bank and made a 5 year deposit with 4.5% year interest. I lived happily through those 5 years taking my profit. Until I heard of Bitcoin. What will be the interest of my Bitcoin deposit in 5 years? Incredibly high, for sure. Therefore, the price of suffering one more  bear year is insignificant compared to the prize after that.

And finally, if someone truly loves Bitcoin, he won't be happy to sell all of them and to stop watching the price. It just doesn't work. He will learn one way or another. After 5 years, when he spent  all of his fiat money, and hears on the news that Bitcoin reached a record heights 10x, 100x or more than the exit price, that feeling will kill all the joy he had when he sold them. Especially, if he has kids, who now have no money for a college or a medical treatment. My point is that we have to think in perspective - not for the next day, month, or year, but for a generation ahead. We have to be very careful what we sell and what we leave for the years to come. I've been thinking about it for 2 years and still don't have a clear and sound plan. I have to wait at least a year and see what will be the price after the next halving. Then I can make a better plan. And hopefully, my emotions won't interfere to sell most of it way too early! The other hard thing is to live with a profit that changes both ways by tens (hundreds, etc.) of thousands each day. That is no easy too! But this is our occupational hazard!

I believe that when I got into bitcoin in late 2013, my plan was to attempt to stay in for at least 1 year, even though i felt that I did not know much about bitcoin, except to attempt to treat it like a long term capital gains tax, which is at least 1 year of holding.  If someone can come in and attempt to establish a 5 year plan, then that would likely be more healthy, and at some point within my first year, my mind kind of converted over to considering my bitcoin investment to be longer term, too, because I developed more confidence in its fundamentals with the passage of time  - which was maybe a kind of Lindy effect within me? 

There should have been a lot of folks who saw late 2017, and the resolutions that were reached in August and November 2017 with a kind of bitcoin dominance over forkening attempts and bitcoin's unwillingness to change during that period or to succumb to baloney attacks, should have allowed for a lot more conviction for the HODLers, and surely BTC's price performance could have contributed to such confidence, even while the following year might have caused some folks who were less convicted into BTC regarding the solidness of BTC's going forward vision and the foundation built around bitcoin's difficulties to change.

Since bitcoin is now more than 10 years old, as compared to its only 5 year old status when I got in, newbies today, providing that they have enough youth, could still come into bitcoin with a kind of 5 year plus plan... the plan could include dollar cost averaging or even a bit of frontloading dollar cost averaging combination that should be able to have decent chances of profitability in the longer term of 5 years or more.
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July 09, 2019, 06:56:42 PM

She's feigning sleep. Small volume, flat tops/bottoms on the smaller timescales. Careful. Never trust a crouching tiger.

Draco dormiens nunquam titillandus
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July 09, 2019, 06:57:34 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

All this talk of to the moon 2020 or 2021 is silly. We all know the real moon is in 2022. Or maybe 2023.

Well not sure what is moon for you but new ATH is coming end of year  Cool

In 2021 we can expect 7 digits and in 2022-2023 next crypto winter.  Cool
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July 09, 2019, 07:02:56 PM

All this talk of to the moon 2020 or 2021 is silly. We all know the real moon is in 2022. Or maybe 2023.

Apparently we all doesn't know.   Maybe you should 'splain ur selfie?

It's possible, also, yet maybe not in your speculation scenario, that we are in a correction period in 2022 and/or 2023 in preparation for the 2024 halvening. 

You consider  a possible upcoming correction cycle within your knowing more than everyone else scenario?

LOL, 'twas a joke. That was my point "we all doesn't know".

O.k.  fair enough. I could kind of see a thread of a possible joke in there.... so no real desire to bust anyone's balls over a possible joke, whether really having balls or a girl or a bot.   Wink

By the way, my response is kind of  serious, and LFC has been spouting off about moon in late 2020 or early 2021 for about 2 years now, which even if he is not exactly correct, I think that there is a decent amount of plausibility to build BTC price bubble theories around halvening effects, and even accounting for possible bubbles coming before the time line in your theory or even after, but bitcoin has been showing quite a few of these repeated bubble patterns playing out, and there is no real reason to believe that they are going to stop, unless you just happen to be a denier who is buying into some less convincing theory including some of the goofballs who try to place bitcoin into a mature asset camp, which should be relatively clear that bitcoin really does not fit too well into a mature asset camp... and likely will not until after it goes through decent adoption which also likely involves a likely ongoing exponential s-curve that is far beyond what any normies expect, but accumulators and HODLers will likely be rewarded for their behaviors.. and at the same time, none of it is a given... which is back to the short term joke point....  "we all doesn't know".
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July 09, 2019, 07:07:58 PM

All this talk of to the moon 2020 or 2021 is silly. We all know the real moon is in 2022. Or maybe 2023.

2022 seems to be the consensus. IMO that's a good indicator that we'll moon before or after 2022. Probably before, since most people also seem to be convinced that the BTC cycles are lengthening.
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July 09, 2019, 07:09:59 PM

Hey Jimbo

how about a Blue Jays halfway report?

The Jays are doing about as well as expected in a rebuilding year with a team consisting mostly of rookies. 2 of the 3 highly-touted  sons-of-superstars prospects have already been brought up (Guerrero and Biggio) and are already excelling. The 3rd, Bo Bichette is waiting in the wings.

[snip]


Writing like this could teach me to actually enjoy baseball
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July 09, 2019, 07:12:29 PM
Last edit: July 09, 2019, 07:27:05 PM by mindrust


...

I still remember 10 years ago, when I went into the bank and made a 5 year deposit with 4.5% year interest. I lived happily through those 5 years taking my profit. Until I heard of Bitcoin. What will be the interest of my Bitcoin deposit in 5 years? Incredibly high, for sure. Therefore, the price of suffering one more  bear year is insignificant compared to the prize after that.

...


I recently made a 6 month deposit with 3.25% (USD) yearly interest.  (nearly %25 of my total wealth) Not the most profitable investment I made since my btc investment is more than doubled itself in a couple of years.

You buy some gold, you buy some bitcoins, you buy some stocks (not a good idea now probably), you always keep some in a bank because banks are still kinda functioning and you still kinda need them for purchasing big stuff like houses, some at home as hard cash, if the amount is big enough some real estate in decent cities with low taxes, etc etc...

It is just a game of risk management.

You buy some risky assets, some less-risky assets, some solid assets, some barbaric relics... All has its spot in the game.

I don't trust banks but I don't want to lose my mind by watching crypto charts neither. (probably too late for that)

** Yes I'm going to wait 6 fucking months to get %1.625 (one point six two five percent) in profits (minus taxes). This is one of the most fucking terrible Investment ever.
*** Should I cancel that shit and go full btc?  Grin
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July 09, 2019, 07:15:02 PM

Bitcoin crosses 64% dominance on cmc

The relentless Agony of the Alts...

Very nice to see on cmc a sea of red except for BTC.

And speaking of alts, (yeah, sorry bout that)....
....the winner of pop and flop shitcoin-of-the-day is.... Egretia   <prolonged whoopee cushion sound>

I am so badly disillusioned by shitcoins I don’t think I am capable of taking any blockchain project seriously.  And that’s probably not a good thing, because if something genuinely good does come along I will probably just reject it out of hand.
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