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Question: How much of your corn do you plan on cashing out in the next massive bull run?
None - 21 (18.8%)
1-10% - 15 (13.4%)
11-20% - 13 (11.6%)
21-30% - 16 (14.3%)
31-40% - 4 (3.6%)
41-50% - 12 (10.7%)
51-60% - 8 (7.1%)
61-70% - 5 (4.5%)
71-80% - 3 (2.7%)
81-90% - 2 (1.8%)
91-99% - 3 (2.7%)
100% - 10 (8.9%)
Total Voters: 112

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 21782713 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (147 posts by 36 users deleted.)
JayJuanGee
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July 10, 2019, 03:18:17 AM

I envy those that can actually trade the short term waves with enough consistent certainty to make a better long term profit than just holding. I'm not sure I've ever actually met one of those mythical traders, they might be unicorns. Grin

If aiming realistically and conservatively, it doesn't take a unicorn to do that. I guess more than a few such people are reading and writing these very pages. It doesn't even take a WO peep (well, just as a brainwasher maybe). Case in point: JJG's mom could do that almost in her sleep, but decided not to be bothered cause she prefers to enjoy life.

If you can learn the difference between a bear market and a bull market (hint: we are in a bull market) then you can trade for a profit.  Dollar cost average in in a bull market. Dollar cost average out in a bear market.

If you can’t tell the difference, then sit on your hands.

This is the opposite of JJGs advice because you buy on the way up and sell on the way down.  The difference is JJGs system doesn’t require you to make a judgment call. Mine does.

Hahahaha... That is probably a decent summary of the differences.

I do believe that my system does allow for a certain amount of overinvesting into BTC because it is a kind of fool proof that is good, whether you are a fool or not, and I would be too chicken-shit to follow your system because both I have little judgement when it comes to BTC price direction, and if I do develop judgement, my judgement tends to become so damned conservative that it would likely take me too long to profit from such judgement (in other words, my judgement tends to function as a lagging indicator).  

In other words, as you have already suggested, I prefer not making any judgement when it comes to BTC price direction predictions, but instead, just doing, which "feels good, man."   I also like to kind of over-invest in a system of buying BTC on the way down and selling small amounts on the way up that seems nearly fool proof, which has made me very, very rich....... and also provides me with decent downside insurance and upside spending money beyond my prior imagination. Wink
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July 10, 2019, 03:27:52 AM

There are many different possible systems. You just find one that works for you most of the time, make all rounds similar in size, and you'll find yourself net green in the long term. Finding a system takes times and funds (the "lessons" or "classes").

The Hairy way is an excellent starting point, and not that hairy to implement after all (except for the judgment call).

If aiming realistically and conservatively, it doesn't take a unicorn to do that.

If you can learn the difference between a bear market and a bull market (hint: we are in a bull market) then you can trade for a profit.  Dollar cost average in in a bull market. Dollar cost average out in a bear market.

If you can’t tell the difference, then sit on your hands.

It doesn't even take a WO peep (well, just as a brainwasher maybe).

Gotta admit to the humor, which caused me to wonder, what I had said, exactly. 
-snip-

I think that my suggestion that she should liquidate some BTC had helped her to shave off about 3-4% of her stash around $11k since she had not sold any BTC during the whole of 2018 until just in the past few weeks or so when BTC reached $11k the first time this year.

OK, OK, brainwasher or ongoing counsel. A little judgment comes handy with any system.

My disclosure.

I have opened a new long - smaller, and higher entry point - after going practically even with my previous, ~2 week trade. Although small, it's making a tidy profit already. I've set two stops so that I pocket half of it if things go south by south-east, and the rest will be closed at break-even if things go true south.

If instead she goes up before going down, I can cash out, call it a day, put away the excess and start over. Alternatively, I can keep the game going by opening a balancing short. If I do, I'll "freeze" a decent level of profit while trying to tweak both legs to scrape/scalp a bit more while exiting. When I'm fed up, scared, tired or whatever, I'll close both legs and a fair part of the frozen profit will get back home if the legs will have been kept fairly balanced.

A pre-set plan with tentative future steps for up/down. Judgment deferred but eventually useful as always.
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July 10, 2019, 03:29:42 AM

3g of blow with my younger bro!
13k Mother Fucker - So fucked up right now  Cool

Don't blow your heart out, brother. Please be careful.

*hugs*

No homo.

I’m OK.

Drinking Prosecco on my own to try & KO to get to sleep.

 
d_eddie
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July 10, 2019, 03:33:20 AM
Merited by LFC_Bitcoin (1)

3g of blow with my younger bro!
13k Mother Fucker - So fucked up right now  Cool

Don't blow your heart out, brother. Please be careful.

*hugs*

No homo.

I’m OK.

Drinking Prosecco on my own to try & KO to get to sleep.

Blow is occasionally fatal, I'm told. Prosecco almost never is, but it's sure to give me a bad stomach and a bad mouth, and without moderation, likely a full blown hangover.

Please be doubly careful  Tongue
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July 10, 2019, 03:35:28 AM
Merited by jbreher (1)

...
And as Moses lifted up the serpent in the wilderness, even so must the Hodler: that whosoever believeth in Bitcoin should not perish, but have eternal life.

....


Speaking of Moses...
LFC_Bitcoin
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July 10, 2019, 03:38:39 AM
Merited by infofront (1)

3g of blow with my younger bro!
13k Mother Fucker - So fucked up right now  Cool

Don't blow your heart out, brother. Please be careful.

*hugs*

No homo.

I’m OK.

Drinking Prosecco on my own to try & KO to get to sleep.

Blow is occasionally fatal, I'm told. Prosecco almost never is, but it's sure to give me a bad stomach and a bad mouth, and without moderation, likely a full blown hangover.

Please be doubly careful  Tongue

I’ve had about 3 bottles of Prosecco on my own.

My girl is fast asleep.

Trying to stay still & quiet.

Been snorting coke off the back of toilet seats since 8pm  Grin
Biodom
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July 10, 2019, 03:39:59 AM

I envy those that can actually trade the short term waves with enough consistent certainty to make a better long term profit than just holding. I'm not sure I've ever actually met one of those mythical traders, they might be unicorns. Grin

If aiming realistically and conservatively, it doesn't take a unicorn to do that. I guess more than a few such people are reading and writing these very pages. It doesn't even take a WO peep (well, just as a brainwasher maybe). Case in point: JJG's mom could do that almost in her sleep, but decided not to be bothered cause she prefers to enjoy life.

If you can learn the difference between a bear market and a bull market (hint: we are in a bull market) then you can trade for a profit.  Dollar cost average in in a bull market. Dollar cost average out in a bear market.

If you can’t tell the difference, then sit on your hands.

This is the opposite of JJGs advice because you buy on the way up and sell on the way down.  The difference is JJGs system doesn’t require you to make a judgment call. Mine does.

...which has made me very, very rich.......

it's not yours until that profit is taken and taxes paid (if you live in a jurisdiction with cap gains taxes).
Wall street refers to a large profit of a lucky individual investor as "a loan".

A deviation to the upside in most cases is followed by a deviation to the downside.
Taking a large profit  and/or not playing at all after deviation to the upside is the only way to beat the odds, IMHO.
The problem is WHEN to take such large profit. In AMZN you had to wait more than 20 years to get the 'full" benefit.
IMHO, Bob's strategy was brilliant: get in very low, then take out a large enough chunk to matter, ride the rest, at least for a while.
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July 10, 2019, 03:45:49 AM
Merited by sirazimuth (1)

Speaking of Moses...

I liked the Asimov quote even better than the joke.

I don't think I can spend WOsMerit outside of this thread. The authority on WOsMerit is Toxic, maybe I should ask him when he's around. In the meantime, I won't reply in that thread out there. It's cozy in here.

+1 WOsMerit
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July 10, 2019, 03:51:15 AM

^That was just a sneaky way of bumping an ancient post of mine.
Now I can find it for future reference.
My apologies..... Right then...carry on chaps....
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July 10, 2019, 03:52:17 AM
Merited by LFC_Bitcoin (1), serveria.com (1), BobLawblaw (1)

A message from the future:

Quote from: LFC_Bitcoin link=topic=178336.msg51769658#msg51769658
I’ve had about 5 bottles of Prosecco on my own.

My harem is fast asleep.

Trying to stay still & quiet.

Been snorting coke off the asses of hookers in the lambo since 8pm

I totaled the lambo an hour ago. Gotta buy a couple more tomorrow. The replacement hookers are included Grin
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July 10, 2019, 03:57:47 AM
Merited by lightfoot (2), Dunkelheit667 (1), bkbirge (1)

LOL!

they ran the hash algo on the Apollo AGC!

http://www.righto.com/2019/07/bitcoin-mining-on-apollo-guidance.html

10.3 seconds per hash!
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July 10, 2019, 04:11:06 AM

^That's pretty badass
JayJuanGee
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July 10, 2019, 04:12:02 AM

I envy those that can actually trade the short term waves with enough consistent certainty to make a better long term profit than just holding. I'm not sure I've ever actually met one of those mythical traders, they might be unicorns. Grin

If aiming realistically and conservatively, it doesn't take a unicorn to do that. I guess more than a few such people are reading and writing these very pages. It doesn't even take a WO peep (well, just as a brainwasher maybe). Case in point: JJG's mom could do that almost in her sleep, but decided not to be bothered cause she prefers to enjoy life.

If you can learn the difference between a bear market and a bull market (hint: we are in a bull market) then you can trade for a profit.  Dollar cost average in in a bull market. Dollar cost average out in a bear market.

If you can’t tell the difference, then sit on your hands.

This is the opposite of JJGs advice because you buy on the way up and sell on the way down.  The difference is JJGs system doesn’t require you to make a judgment call. Mine does.

...which has made me very, very rich.......

it's not yours until that profit is taken and taxes paid (if you live in a jurisdiction with cap gains taxes).
Wall street refers to a large profit of a lucky individual investor as "a loan".

A deviation to the upside in most cases is followed by a deviation to the downside.
Taking a large profit  and/or not playing at all after deviation to the upside is the only way to beat the odds, IMHO.
The problem is WHEN to take such large profit. In AMZN you had to wait more than 20 years to get the 'full" benefit.
IMHO, Bob's strategy was brilliant: get in very low, then take out a large enough chunk to matter, ride the rest, at least for a while.

Are you trying to ruin dee moo, Biodom?

If a person has value in an investment, whether bitcoin or otherwise, there can also be some freeing up of other money/value... or at least freedom to spend money in other locations, whether in a bank account or other resources, because he knows that he has the value in the investment, such as bitcoin. 

Of course, he can make adjustments to the value on the investment depending upon the hypothetical time that he is going to cash it in, or even to have some tentative reservations of the value based on not knowing exactly when the investment is going to be liquidated.  Real property tends to be much more cumbersome to liquidate than a 401k, and gold would likely be difficult too, absent having some avenues of liquidation.  Bitcoin seems to be much more easy to liquidate, even though some of the liquidation avenues might change from time to time, including the fact that bitcoin is only 10 years old, so liquidation avenues have changed during that time too.. so one of the costs of maintaining bitcoin could be having some ideas about what liquidation avenues might be available for amounts chosen to liquidated and when.
sirazimuth
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July 10, 2019, 04:13:50 AM

LOL!

they ran the hash algo on the Apollo AGC!

http://www.righto.com/2019/07/bitcoin-mining-on-apollo-guidance.html

10.3 seconds per hash!

yeah, but back then in sixties, the difficulty was like minus 50.
Oh wait a minute....
Biodom
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July 10, 2019, 04:24:36 AM

I envy those that can actually trade the short term waves with enough consistent certainty to make a better long term profit than just holding. I'm not sure I've ever actually met one of those mythical traders, they might be unicorns. Grin

If aiming realistically and conservatively, it doesn't take a unicorn to do that. I guess more than a few such people are reading and writing these very pages. It doesn't even take a WO peep (well, just as a brainwasher maybe). Case in point: JJG's mom could do that almost in her sleep, but decided not to be bothered cause she prefers to enjoy life.

If you can learn the difference between a bear market and a bull market (hint: we are in a bull market) then you can trade for a profit.  Dollar cost average in in a bull market. Dollar cost average out in a bear market.

If you can’t tell the difference, then sit on your hands.

This is the opposite of JJGs advice because you buy on the way up and sell on the way down.  The difference is JJGs system doesn’t require you to make a judgment call. Mine does.

...which has made me very, very rich.......

it's not yours until that profit is taken and taxes paid (if you live in a jurisdiction with cap gains taxes).
Wall street refers to a large profit of a lucky individual investor as "a loan".

A deviation to the upside in most cases is followed by a deviation to the downside.
Taking a large profit  and/or not playing at all after deviation to the upside is the only way to beat the odds, IMHO.
The problem is WHEN to take such large profit. In AMZN you had to wait more than 20 years to get the 'full" benefit.
IMHO, Bob's strategy was brilliant: get in very low, then take out a large enough chunk to matter, ride the rest, at least for a while.

Are you trying to ruin dee moo, Biodom?

If a person has value in an investment, whether bitcoin or otherwise, there can also be some freeing up of other money/value... or at least freedom to spend money in other locations, whether in a bank account or other resources, because he knows that he has the value in the investment, such as bitcoin.  

Of course, he can make adjustments to the value on the investment depending upon the hypothetical time that he is going to cash it in, or even to have some tentative reservations of the value based on not knowing exactly when the investment is going to be liquidated.  Real property tends to be much more cumbersome to liquidate than a 401k, and gold would likely be difficult too, absent having some avenues of liquidation.  Bitcoin seems to be much more easy to liquidate, even though some of the liquidation avenues might change from time to time, including the fact that bitcoin is only 10 years old, so liquidation avenues have changed during that time too.. so one of the costs of maintaining bitcoin could be having some ideas about what liquidation avenues might be available for amounts chosen to liquidated and when.

dee moo???
I guess it's "the mood"...

People here are mostly "drunk" with their 10-100X gains and think that it would continue, essentially, forever (until btc is 1-10mil).
I wouldn't mind that at all, but I give this scenario maybe 10% probability.
Much more likely is the next peak at 35-300K (most likely around 150K), followed by a multiyear proper whooping.
What if such whooping will end up not the usual 80-85%, but 95% lower?
200k back to 10k? A proper teeth gnashing would ensue and most people would sell, most likely closer to the lows than highs.

I had this experience before (when Internet boom turned to bust). There were literally no bids for some stocks. Could it happen with bitcoin?
I don't know.
however, for now, you are right, let's enjoy dee moo.
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July 10, 2019, 04:42:16 AM

Observing 13K being broken shattered again...
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July 10, 2019, 04:43:17 AM

LOL!

they ran the hash algo on the Apollo AGC!

http://www.righto.com/2019/07/bitcoin-mining-on-apollo-guidance.html

10.3 seconds per hash!

Gotta love the mad scientist geniuses. That's so beautiful you get my last merit.
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July 10, 2019, 04:45:17 AM

I envy those that can actually trade the short term waves with enough consistent certainty to make a better long term profit than just holding. I'm not sure I've ever actually met one of those mythical traders, they might be unicorns. Grin

If aiming realistically and conservatively, it doesn't take a unicorn to do that. I guess more than a few such people are reading and writing these very pages. It doesn't even take a WO peep (well, just as a brainwasher maybe). Case in point: JJG's mom could do that almost in her sleep, but decided not to be bothered cause she prefers to enjoy life.

If you can learn the difference between a bear market and a bull market (hint: we are in a bull market) then you can trade for a profit.  Dollar cost average in in a bull market. Dollar cost average out in a bear market.

If you can’t tell the difference, then sit on your hands.

This is the opposite of JJGs advice because you buy on the way up and sell on the way down.  The difference is JJGs system doesn’t require you to make a judgment call. Mine does.

...which has made me very, very rich.......

it's not yours until that profit is taken and taxes paid (if you live in a jurisdiction with cap gains taxes).
Wall street refers to a large profit of a lucky individual investor as "a loan".

A deviation to the upside in most cases is followed by a deviation to the downside.
Taking a large profit  and/or not playing at all after deviation to the upside is the only way to beat the odds, IMHO.
The problem is WHEN to take such large profit. In AMZN you had to wait more than 20 years to get the 'full" benefit.
IMHO, Bob's strategy was brilliant: get in very low, then take out a large enough chunk to matter, ride the rest, at least for a while.

Are you trying to ruin dee moo, Biodom?

If a person has value in an investment, whether bitcoin or otherwise, there can also be some freeing up of other money/value... or at least freedom to spend money in other locations, whether in a bank account or other resources, because he knows that he has the value in the investment, such as bitcoin.  

Of course, he can make adjustments to the value on the investment depending upon the hypothetical time that he is going to cash it in, or even to have some tentative reservations of the value based on not knowing exactly when the investment is going to be liquidated.  Real property tends to be much more cumbersome to liquidate than a 401k, and gold would likely be difficult too, absent having some avenues of liquidation.  Bitcoin seems to be much more easy to liquidate, even though some of the liquidation avenues might change from time to time, including the fact that bitcoin is only 10 years old, so liquidation avenues have changed during that time too.. so one of the costs of maintaining bitcoin could be having some ideas about what liquidation avenues might be available for amounts chosen to liquidated and when.

dee moo???
I guess it's "the mood"...

People here are mostly "drunk" with their 10-100X gains and think that it would continue, essentially, forever (until btc is 1-10mil).
I wouldn't mind that at all, but I give this scenario maybe 10% probability.
Much more likely is the next peak at 35-300K (most likely around 150K), followed by a multiyear proper whooping.
What if such whooping will end up not the usual 80-85%, but 95% lower?
200k back to 10k? A proper teeth gnashing would ensue and most people would sell, most likely closer to the lows than highs.

I had this experience before (when Internet boom turned to bust). There were literally no bids for some stocks. Could it happen with bitcoin?
I don't know.
however, for now, you are right, let's enjoy dee moo.

Aaaaand you'd be wrong.
The only way bitcoin doesn't continue it's upward trend is if the governments of the world find a way out of the fiat debt crisis that's been dug. I'd say the odds of that are
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2V3CfD8TPac
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July 10, 2019, 04:45:51 AM

what is this
https://www.coindesk.com/fortress-will-buy-mt-gox-creditors-claims-for-900-per-bitcoin-owed

hmmmmm

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July 10, 2019, 04:54:11 AM

The yearly high will be break this July (voted already) but the ATH will possibly be break in the last quarter.
Another great day for us again, Bitcoin is again bullish and this could again surprise us when we wake up tomorrow.
Big push happened today, over $12K now, soon we will touch $13k again and will push through a higher price before correction would again take place.

Confirmed.
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