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Question: When will bitcoin reach the top of this bull market (i.e. when will it moon)?
Topped at $13,880 in June - 12 (7.7%)
H2 2019 - 16 (10.3%)
H1 2020 - 29 (18.6%)
H2 2020 - 28 (17.9%)
H1 2021 - 12 (7.7%)
H2 2021 - 31 (19.9%)
H1 2022 - 6 (3.8%)
H2 2022 - 4 (2.6%)
H1 2023 - 0 (0%)
H2 2023 - 3 (1.9%)
2024 or Later - 15 (9.6%)
Total Voters: 156

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 21292708 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (102 posts by 19 users deleted.)
Lauda
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June 25, 2019, 03:35:23 PM

Depends...   what if 15% at 25k locks in just enough to quit ones job and be financially comfortable for the rest of your life?   Everyone needs to look at their own situation and optimize for best life quality.     Make the plan now, and don't get wrapped up in FOMO when it hits....  
Right, and most people will end up becoming worthless sacks of rotting flesh contributing nothing for the society or the planet. Less focus on "indulging" and this "comfortable" nonsense and start thinking how you can actually use it for something substantial. What will you only do without an apartment in London or Manhattan? The banks still control your minds, despite many believing that participating in Bitcoin means otherwise. Roll Eyes
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June 25, 2019, 03:35:44 PM

CMEGroup

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CME Bitcoin futures finished the week with 5 successive open interest records,
ending at 6,013 contracts on June 21 (30,065 equivalent bitcoin),
up 1,385 contracts or 30% over the prior week.

https://twitter.com/CMEGroup/status/1143292642807226370
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June 25, 2019, 03:36:51 PM

Just been reading, apparently Royal Bank of Scotland & their many sister banks have a good relationship with Coinbase & don’t close/freeze your account if you withdraw, even large sums.

I like the idea of multiple LBC sales though, myself.

Seems dumb to be talking about this now but we all need to be prepared. Should really ask somebody like Vod, OgNasty or Elwar who I think have already cashed out millions.

Don’t think I’ve ever seen a thread here discussing cashing out plans, techniques, strategies. I would start one but it’ll be filled with nocoiner noobs, one liner posting, broken English & sig spam.

This is a good post.

We need to be prepared for at least some partial cashing out when the right time comes. I'm particularly worried about my bank seeing funds coming from an exchange (e.g., Kraken) and freezing my account on the grounds of "crypto money = bad boy". Full exchange/bank KYC disclosure is assumed.

If anyone has any success (or otherwise) stories to share with us, particularly involving Kraken and EU/UK banks, it would be a great help to many, I'm sure.
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June 25, 2019, 03:39:03 PM


Don’t think I’ve ever seen a thread here discussing cashing out plans, techniques, strategies. I would start one but it’ll be filled with nocoiner noobs, one liner posting, broken English & sig spam.

This might be worth looking at. Although you'll have to read the whole thread because the OP han't been updated for a while.

List of Bitcoin Hostile (and friendly) Banks

Barclays stopped my trade with Bittylicious because "suspicious it may not be you" strange because I used their own little encrypted calculator thing so they really knew full well it was me.

Had my account locked a few days, I said I'm buying something from the internet? do you want to tell me anything like a good reason? bad seller? what? nothing. They just didn't want to let me.

Interesting how they get to decide if you are allowed to spend your money.




I read some nightmare stories about trying to cash out large amounts from some exchanges. It would be even worse if you dealt with the exchange's shit, then had to deal with the same shit from your bank.

Apparently the HSBC hates Bitcoin too.

...

HSBC has a global policy against customer's crypto-trading. Following their $1.8 billion SEC-fine for laundering money for Mexican drug cartel, they are likely to remain on the sidelines for years to come.
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June 25, 2019, 03:47:11 PM

Barclays stopped my trade with Bittylicious because [...]
HSBC has a global policy against customer's crypto-trading [...]

Looks like we should find a good ATM to cash out anonymously in small chunks...

Jimbo knows what he's doing...
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June 25, 2019, 03:47:32 PM

Let's see if it's only a dip or a bigger correction. Much needed imho.

I would say that it's not only much needed, but somewhat overdue...

An "overdue" that might not happen.

Pee pare ur selfie for UP, too...... NOT merely for down.     Wink Wink
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June 25, 2019, 03:47:51 PM


No left turn but still the highway board says monero. Huh
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June 25, 2019, 03:50:00 PM


LedgerX futures got approved.
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June 25, 2019, 03:50:10 PM
Merited by infofront (1), VB1001 (1)

CFTC Approves LedgerX to settle futures in real Bitcoin.

https://www.coindesk.com/cftc-approves-ledgerx-to-settle-futures-in-real-bitcoin?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=coindesk&utm_term=&utm_content=&utm_campaign=Organic%20
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June 25, 2019, 03:54:02 PM


Tales from the Crypt

Last couple years, instead of cash, my wife has been gifting BTC for friends and family kids’ birthdays. Small amounts labeled as “college fund”. Every once in a while, she pings the parents: how’s that college fund doing? Some of the returns are approaching 2-3x. Still, few if any of the parents are buying on their own.

Got an Ozzie mate I tried and tried again to convince investing in BTC well before the 2017 run up. He finally caught the fever near the ATH. Fearing he was too late for BTC, he started buying XRP and a host of other shitcoins. Had to have a serious sit down. Might have involved some bitch-slapping. He managed to DCA himself into BTC over the past couple years and calls me up this week: “I’m back in the black!! Wish I bought more at the start of the year!” I suspect we've got a hodler for life.

Know a Chinese gal recently married to a Yankee expat who caught shitcoin fever like only the Chinese can. Unbeknownst to her hubbie, she started dumping massive amounts of her yuan savings into the 2017 hype. When she was down 20% last year, my wife and I spent hours trying to convince her to cut her shitcoin losses. She had no exit plan and remained convinced they would all bounce back. She’s since lost enough she confided in my wife she has been contemplating suicide. Intervention time.

Know a recently retired couple in their 60s, an old boss actually, who came to town in Feb to visit their newlywed daughter. I’ve never spoken a word to them about Bitcoin. One morning they point blank ask, do I own any Bitcoin? Is now a good time to buy? Why yes, now is the perfect time to buy. They’d be sitting on 2-3x returns if they actually pulled the trigger back then. I’m thinking they didn’t though and probably mistakenly think they’ve already missed the boat. Time will tell.

It’s a fine line advocating at the same time impressing upon others the importance of dyor, dca, hodl, don’t overextend, think years not weeks/months. For every success story lurks a potential tragedy, and that’s an albatross no one wants hanging around their neck.

Fun to pat ourselves on the back but let's not kid ourselves - watching walls get cut like a knife all the way down to $3k's was not exciting or fun.  Most bitcoiners likely had been dollar cost averaging for a year in around the $6-8k range thinking 6k was the floor and then *poof* it dropped to $3.5k.  Immediately after that, there was no reason to suspect we had hit rock bottom.  Honestly, I think it would've been insane to have been strongly suggesting that normies be putting their life savings in, even at $3.5k.  Price could've realistically fallen more (not to $0, but to $2k?  Sure!) & then they'd be calling you crying about little Jimmy's college savings being down 50%.

I'm just saying, it's easy to feel great when everything is 3x up from the bottom.  We have been greatly rewarded for taking our great risks & I don't think we should encourage the uneducated normies to take the same risks we do.  DCA is always the only way I encourage people to get in.

True that, but the bottom for some of us was $152 or even lower. $3k or even $1k? Pfft. Think years, halving cycles even, not months. Don't trade. Don't get caught up in the exuberance of short-lived ATHs as much as possible and keep your eyes on the solid floors. DCA, of course, is your friend.

Bitcoin has only closed above $10k 80 days or so. As long as you bought sometime in the last 10 years minus those 80 days, you are in the green. The asymmetry of this bet is rididulous and has been for much of Bitcoin's existence.

Life savings? No, the most I'd ever suggest is 5% of retirement savings.

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June 25, 2019, 03:55:12 PM


https://t.co/mpfsBqfIWa?amp=1 (link to the pdf file of the decision)

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June 25, 2019, 03:59:01 PM

Ok, I’m going to sell 15% at $25,000. JJG, you’ll be happy to know I’ve perfected my plan now in theory.
Way too much way too early. 1% maybe at $100k. Maybe.

I think we’ll see $100,000 per BTC in 2021 (mid to end of the year). It’d just be nice to take something off the table a bit earlier. I was a millionaire (GBP) in unrealised/unbanked BTC during the last bull run & I sold nothing.

The drop to $3,000 was gut wrenching, I thought I’d ruined my life by selling nothing near the top.

I’m not going to make that mistake again this time. I know everything points to us breaking 6 figures (USD) per coin on this cycle but I want some insurance against a potential crash.

I’ll be selling 15% at or near $25,000.

Don’t do it in one hit.  Scale out.

Sell 1.5% for every $1k rise from $20k to $30k.

That way if it hits $23.5k and retraces you won’t hate yourself.  Also if it hits $30k you won’t hate yourself.  It also gives you time for fiat from selling at $20k to hit your bank account before you deposit Bitcoin for sale at $21k, meaning you reduce your exposure to exchange risk.  Once the fiat hits your bank account, transfer the fiat to another account with a different bank.  

Personally I think $25k is too low a target but I can appreciate that some people may have a hell of a lot more than me invested in Bitcoin and need to recoup a fraction of their investment.

Make sure you have a longer term plan for Bitcoin hitting $1 million in another 10 or 15 years.

Hairy beary to the rescue, again!!!!!!!!!!!


You said what I wanted to say, but was afraid to say it.

By the way, no one should be starting any cash out plan at anything below $25k.. $17.5k to $25k is no man's territory....

Sure, start at $25k if you must, and like hairy beary said structure something like a 1.5% per thousand plan or something in that kind of an incrementalist framework.
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June 25, 2019, 04:00:56 PM
Merited by cryptjh (1)



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Bitcoin's rolling 4 year return is the highest it's been in over 2 years.

https://twitter.com/ChartsBtc/status/1143531819188383748
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June 25, 2019, 04:04:22 PM

https://decrypt.co/7587/how-tether-is-fueling-this-booming-bitcoin-bull-run
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June 25, 2019, 04:07:24 PM
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Man alts are not doing shit. 60% dominance for Bitcoin.
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June 25, 2019, 04:09:20 PM

Tales from the Crypt

Last couple years, instead of cash, my wife has been gifting BTC for friends and family kids’ birthdays. Small amounts labeled as “college fund”. Every once in a while, she pings the parents: how’s that college fund doing? Some of the returns are approaching 2-3x. Still, few if any of the parents are buying on their own.

Got an Ozzie mate I tried and tried again to convince investing in BTC well before the 2017 run up. He finally caught the fever near the ATH. Fearing he was too late for BTC, he started buying XRP and a host of other shitcoins. Had to have a serious sit down. Might have involved some bitch-slapping. He managed to DCA himself into BTC over the past couple years and calls me up this week: “I’m back in the black!! Wish I bought more at the start of the year!” I suspect we've got a hodler for life.

Know a Chinese gal recently married to a Yankee expat who caught shitcoin fever like only the Chinese can. Unbeknownst to her hubbie, she started dumping massive amounts of her yuan savings into the 2017 hype. When she was down 20% last year, my wife and I spent hours trying to convince her to cut her shitcoin losses. She had no exit plan and remained convinced they would all bounce back. She’s since lost enough she confided in my wife she has been contemplating suicide. Intervention time.

Know a recently retired couple in their 60s, an old boss actually, who came to town in Feb to visit their newlywed daughter. I’ve never spoken a word to them about Bitcoin. One morning they point blank ask, do I own any Bitcoin? Is now a good time to buy? Why yes, now is the perfect time to buy. They’d be sitting on 2-3x returns if they actually pulled the trigger back then. I’m thinking they didn’t though and probably mistakenly think they’ve already missed the boat. Time will tell.

It’s a fine line advocating at the same time impressing upon others the importance of dyor, dca, hodl, don’t overextend, think years not weeks/months. For every success story lurks a potential tragedy, and that’s an albatross no one wants hanging around their neck.

Fun to pat ourselves on the back but let's not kid ourselves - watching walls get cut like a knife all the way down to $3k's was not exciting or fun.  Most bitcoiners likely had been dollar cost averaging for a year in around the $6-8k range thinking 6k was the floor and then *poof* it dropped to $3.5k.  Immediately after that, there was no reason to suspect we had hit rock bottom.  Honestly, I think it would've been insane to have been strongly suggesting that normies be putting their life savings in, even at $3.5k.  

Get the fuck out of here with your twisting around of what anyone is saying here.  Dollar cost averaging is not putting in your life savings, you fucking goofball, and dollar cost averaging would have been a good plan for anyone in the $6k territory and it would have continued to have been a good strategy, even after the price dipped into the sub $4k territory for several months.. .even at the time, it would have been a good strategy, without even knowing how the BTC price subsequently played out, even if BTC would have dropped further or gotten caught in the sub $4k territory for another year-ish.

Price could've realistically fallen more (not to $0, but to $2k?  Sure!) & then they'd be calling you crying about little Jimmy's college savings being down 50%.

dollar cost averaging does not tend to produce those kinds of results, especially on assets that have strong fundamentals.. namely bitcoin.

I'm just saying, it's easy to feel great when everything is 3x up from the bottom.  We have been greatly rewarded for taking our great risks & I don't think we should encourage the uneducated normies to take the same risks we do.  DCA is always the only way I encourage people to get in.

Yes... ... get off your high horse, that DCA dealie wheelie is one of the staples of the strategies of what other peeps had been saying here, too.
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June 25, 2019, 04:12:43 PM

Bitcoin ATMs pass the 5k mark worldwide for the first time


https://cointelegraph.com/news/there-are-now-more-than-5000-bitcoin-atms-around-the-world
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BTFD, on to 15K a coin !!!!


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June 25, 2019, 04:13:17 PM

Man alts are not doing shit. 60% dominance for Bitcoin.

Wake me up at 80%  Grin Cool
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June 25, 2019, 04:15:56 PM

We just crossed 10,000 € (Kraken).

Again.

Hopefully, for good!
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June 25, 2019, 04:19:20 PM


Don’t think I’ve ever seen a thread here discussing cashing out plans, techniques, strategies. I would start one but it’ll be filled with nocoiner noobs, one liner posting, broken English & sig spam.

This might be worth looking at. Although you'll have to read the whole thread because the OP han't been updated for a while.

List of Bitcoin Hostile (and friendly) Banks

Barclays stopped my trade with Bittylicious because "suspicious it may not be you" strange because I used their own little encrypted calculator thing so they really knew full well it was me.

Had my account locked a few days, I said I'm buying something from the internet? do you want to tell me anything like a good reason? bad seller? what? nothing. They just didn't want to let me.

Interesting how they get to decide if you are allowed to spend your money.




I read some nightmare stories about trying to cash out large amounts from some exchanges. It would be even worse if you dealt with the exchange's shit, then had to deal with the same shit from your bank.

Apparently the HSBC hates Bitcoin too.

...

HSBC has a global policy against customer's crypto-trading. Following their $1.8 billion SEC-fine for laundering money for Mexican drug cartel, they are likely to remain on the sidelines for years to come.

Lloyd’s completely shut my account down and wouldn’t give me an explanation even though it was obviously bitcoin related as I was cashing out at the time.

Santander are friendlier but I would definitely recommend getting a personal banker to explain what you are doing to. This will stop issues and questions later.
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