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Question: How much of your corn do you plan on cashing out in the next massive bull run?
None - 21 (18.8%)
1-10% - 15 (13.4%)
11-20% - 13 (11.6%)
21-30% - 16 (14.3%)
31-40% - 4 (3.6%)
41-50% - 12 (10.7%)
51-60% - 8 (7.1%)
61-70% - 5 (4.5%)
71-80% - 3 (2.7%)
81-90% - 2 (1.8%)
91-99% - 3 (2.7%)
100% - 10 (8.9%)
Total Voters: 112

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 21782753 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (147 posts by 36 users deleted.)
kurious
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July 09, 2019, 08:45:31 PM

Lets find out. New poll time!

Difficult to know what constitutes the end of a bull? Was 2013 two bull runs or one? Well if two, I'll plump for H2 2019.

Yeah I wavered a bit on how to word it. I dunno

Do we only know afterwards, when it crashes by 85%? Wink
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July 09, 2019, 08:45:38 PM


Binance research is following this thread!

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg51760830#msg51760830

kurious
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July 09, 2019, 08:47:35 PM

Where else but the WO for proper analysis?
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July 09, 2019, 08:55:05 PM

Indeed.
In addition our analysis are for the sake of s better enlightenment of world minds, not driven out of filthy lucre.
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How much alt coin diversification is needed? 0%?


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July 09, 2019, 08:55:08 PM

Lets find out. New poll time!

Difficult to know what constitutes the end of a bull? Was 2013 two bull runs or one? Well if two, I'll plump for H2 2019.

Yeah I wavered a bit on how to word it. I dunno

Maybe there could be a kind of time period in there that would have to come after the ATH in order for that ATH to be considered the top of such a cycle?

So, for example:

"When do you believe BTC will reach its highest point in its next ATH top (in which at least a one year period of lower prices follows before BTC next reaches another ATH)?"

Of course, you could change that following price period, but 1 year should work in a vast majority of cases in order to give a sufficient period time for a reset, so in 2013, there were two tops and a less than a year intervention (something like 9 months between 2013 tops that were in early April and late November), so in 2013 the second top would count as the top for that period because there was less than 1 year intervention between reaching ATHs, but after the December 2017 peak, we have had more than 18 months of intervening period without experiencing another ATH.... meaning that we are in reset mode... reset for another ATH, but questioning details as to when (or if) that next ATH will come or how it will play out, exactly? 

Of course, no poll is going to be perfect because we have to make a best guestimate kind of choice, based on the wording.
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July 09, 2019, 08:57:10 PM

For me I do think we might have two runs - since we seem to be ahead of the fractal... but the real one will still be a year after the halvening, so 2021.  And as is traditional, probably December.
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July 09, 2019, 08:57:49 PM


Where else but the WO for proper analysis?

tea leaves? reading goats entrails?.... or how about that magic eight ball thingy?
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July 09, 2019, 08:58:12 PM

If you happen to read this thread (sarcasm intended), you would notice that consensus, to the extent that there is such a thing or that it matters, seems to be more in the early 2021 time frame....

Lets find out. New poll time!

Old poll results:





Weren’t an idea of next minimum positioning (price/time) getting traction?
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July 09, 2019, 09:05:44 PM

It is just a game of risk management.

You buy some risky assets, some less-risky assets, some solid assets, some barbaric relics... All has its spot in the game.

Sounds about right to me. I always get a chuckle on these boards when posters (present company excluded of course) recommend diversifying and their idea is to buy as many different tokens as possible.

You won’t get many people, if any, saying that here
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July 09, 2019, 09:39:17 PM
Merited by bones261 (2)



https://twitter.com/Rhythmtrader/status/1148652161045270528



As of block 584,640, 84.8% of all #Bitcoin have been mined.
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July 09, 2019, 10:13:01 PM

Lets find out. New poll time!

Difficult to know what constitutes the end of a bull? Was 2013 two bull runs or one? Well if two, I'll plump for H2 2019.
Two imho.
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July 09, 2019, 10:15:10 PM
Merited by sirazimuth (1)


Where else but the WO for proper analysis?

tea leaves? reading goats entrails?.... or how about that magic eight ball thingy?

Anything for an edge, mate.  Mind you, Binance has probably already read this by now and is quietly cornering the fresh goat market.
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July 09, 2019, 10:31:58 PM

Deutsche bank employees pack their bags leaving. Another failed collapsing bank to fire another 18,000 employees but what is most telling isn’t the banks crumbling finances but the Bitcoins tote carried by the man in a blue suit. Long bitcoin! Short the banksters!!
https://twitter.com/amtvmedia/status/1148616111346216966
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July 09, 2019, 10:41:02 PM



Into ^, gonna catch up tomorrow

Goodnight my fine WO-bro's
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July 09, 2019, 10:54:39 PM
Merited by vapourminer (1), El duderino_ (1), AlcoHoDL (1), JSRAW (1)

It is just a game of risk management.

You buy some risky assets, some less-risky assets, some solid assets, some barbaric relics... All has its spot in the game.

Sounds about right to me. I always get a chuckle on these boards when posters (present company excluded of course) recommend diversifying and their idea is to buy as many different tokens as possible.

There is some validity to diversification, but the concept is taken to an extreme with shitcoins, and there seems to be hardly any justification to diversify into shitcoins.

Another thing, the concept of diversification is to attempt to diversify into assets that are not likely to be correlated and represent some fundamental differences.  Frequently altcoins are merely following bitcoin, so they are not really a different asset class.

Finally, there is a pretty god damned low probability that any altcoin would be able to take over the slack if bitcoin were to fail, and so a justification to diversify into a world of altcoins based on a kind of bitcoin failure theory has a very faulty premise.

I am not opposed to people coming to their own conclusions regarding what kind of diversification would be good for them based on their personal situation, and I understand the temptation to completely diversify out of traditional investments; however, if an employer offers any kind of 401k, it would likely be a good idea to invest into such 401k at least up to the matching funds (if matching exists) and perhaps up to the tax deferrable limit, but that might be a question of how much money would be left to invest into bitcoin, because most young people should consider having some investment into bitcoin, even if such bitcoin investment only ends up being 1% to 10% or so of their total investments.

I don't usually cite myself, but I will make an exception because I wanted to make some further points about problems of diversification with regards to crypto, and of course, I am not much of an advocate of keeping much if anything in any other cryptos besides bitcoin, but I can see why there could reasonably be some interest from younger folks, especially, in putting up to 30% into other cryptos, which o.k. fine, we can come to reasonably different conclusions about the prudence of that.

Another problem that I wanted to point out, though, is that the more that a young person might end up diversifying, then the smaller and smaller becomes the stake in each particular investment asset, and one of the dominant problems with younger peeps is that there does not tend to be a whole hell of a lot of capital to play with, and the more that such young person diversifies, the less and less is invested into each of the assets.  Such lack of capital could be the case with older people too, but with younger people lack of capital would logically be more common as an issue and having had little time to accumulate wealth and value retaining assets.

In other words, it takes a long fucking time to: 1) reasonably live within your means, 2) accumulate investment capital and 3) refrain from temptations to buy depreciating assets (such as too many non-utility consumption items)

In my own situation, I had not bought a new car until I was in my 40s, and yeah, I may have waited a bit too long, because I had accumulated a decent amount of wealth by the time I was in my mid-30s, but I was still on a relatively frugal behavior pattern, and I did not feel comfortable cashing in on what seemed to have been a decent accumulation of profits and a decent projected income stream.  I continued to want my money to work for me, and I thought that buying a new car would throw away too much potential working capital on a quickly and clearly depreciating asset.  So, anyhow, part of my point is that it can take a decent amount of time to build up enough wealth to be able to diversify a lot of it, and if you are working with a smaller base of money, then you are spread thin and your profits will not seem like a lot of money.  You also might be tempted to borrow, which sometimes can work out well if used prudently in order to attempt to get capital that you do not have to work for you.. and to be able to rotate it or to pay it back before penalties might kick in.

Even when I got into bitcoin, I had a decent amount of capital that I had available to me and that I could put into bitcoin, but I did not feel comfortable spreading out the money that I had available very much, and even after my bitcoin value grew 28x and shrunk back down to 8x and is currently at about 15x, there remains a kind of lack of confidence within my own thinking about spreading that value that I have accumulated out into alt coins, which I suppose is stemming from my earlier conclusions that bitcoin was the best investment and not to dilute my funds into crap, and even if I currently feel that I have enough funds that I could diversify, so dilution is not really the issue anymore, I still have residue feelings that I don't want to diversify into shit, just for the sake of diversification...

but another part of my personal situation/problem remains that I have a decent investment in traditional investments such as a 401k that even though my 401k is valued at less than 25% of my overall investment portfolio, such 401k was serving as my kind of back-up plan if BTC totally went to tulips (as searing might say).  I had always figured that my 401k was enough to sustain everything as a backup - even though I had been tempted in late 2014 to withdraw about 50% from that 401k and to transfer it into BTC (which I did not do).. and even though I would have made a killing, I am kind of glad that I just left that 401k alone, too (maybe for the sake of maintaining some spreading out of risk, aka diversification into nonbitcoin assets?).
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July 09, 2019, 11:14:54 PM

Please tell me that you have already diversified some of that capital - at the very least - into prostitutes & drugs.
Solid investment, much like Jimbo's teeth. Grin
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July 09, 2019, 11:30:19 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

Tulips will still grow every year for half a century, went to tulips is not such a great insult imo.    Tulips cant securely contain transactions globally though so likely not reflecting the same dynamics, different market commodities tbh :p

A backup is a good idea but I'd also mention alot of pensions are liable to payout a figure related to whatever the future dollar value might be, that could possibly really suck if it were just bound to nominal payouts.   The government will never measure inflation correctly as it would too often put GDP into the negative.   Also pensions have a kind of soft default where they reference improving life spans, so now your retirement age gets bumped up.   Not every person has perfect health near an average and so some will never get their pension.   401k is a good idea to keep your hands out of the honey pot but also its full of rules that might easily put a person at a disadvantage.  
   The full measure of extremism on this subject would be to foresee that all 401k (or similar pension schemes around the world) given they had tax breaks, are in future forced to buy exclusively government debt.   The largest holders of QE programs ongoing debt are government pension schemes, afaik they are the counter and a large one with 50% GDP related to fiscal expenditure.   Hence government can never go broke while it rules the people.   In a democracy this probably should not be happening by force but its a slippery slope.    Japan might be closest to this playing out but also their demographics are broke.

Quote
buy as many different tokens as possible.
Good idea to look before you leap and that doesnt sound like that.    I think POS is a good alternative to POW but not everyone is especially positive on it, if the market finds no great cost or fault in efficiency for POW and BTC then I guess POS wont take off but if it does thats the kind of diversification in crypto I'd expect works rather then this forking stuff.

Proper diversification is a very valid subject, staying within crypto would not really qualify imo.   I'm thinking of entirely separate asset types.   Someone who setups their own ability to purify water off grid has a useful form of diversification I think.   Gold I think will always be relevant, doesnt have to be any large quantity but certainly enough to exchange for food is a reasonable argument for retaining independent value that will last a decade.   Catching the latest fad in whatever price is rising right now is not really diversification.    Silver can help purify water somewhat, I dont view it as too expensive now and it has its uses to be fair     A goat can be diversification Grin

Its a bad idea to be in a market where everyone wants to sell, thats the main reason to use this idea.   Alot of current liquidity is kinda artificial from politics and QE support, it could all be different.   I believe the tides rule us and politics loses its grip to control prices eventually, not trying to be gloomy but I think thats a natural process repeating for longer then any of us have been around
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July 09, 2019, 11:53:34 PM

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July 09, 2019, 11:57:50 PM

Please tell me that you have already diversified some of that capital - at the very least - into prostitutes & drugs.
Solid investment, much like Jimbo's teeth. Grin

I thought that you were ignoring me (and or hating on me) ...  so a bit surprised that you engaged.. since the last time you engaged with me, was filled with a decent amount of slanders thrown in my direction....   hahahahaha

Anywhooo....

I did get a little bit worried in late 2016 and early 2017 when my BTC investment started to approach the value of my 401k, and furthermore through 2017 to surpass the value of my remaining other investments including my 401k that I had largely accumulated through my life (largely my investments of more than 20 years of my adult life), but I had already come to the conclusion that  I felt that I had sufficiently adjusted for a decent amount of my risk by carrying out my system of systematically selling in the ballpark of 1% of my BTC stash for every 10% that the BTC price goes up.

Of course, I could have chosen a different amount of shaving off of profits, and surely,  there could be some problems with using that accumulated capital to buy back BTC in the event that BTC prices goes down (which any of us in BTC for any decent period of time have witnessed that one of the most inevitable things in bitcoin is its price volatility).

I had another issue in early 2017 and that was that I had suffered a sims port hack, so in that regard, there were some problems with loss of BTC through that, yet BTC's price appreciation had still caused my BTC investment to perform in an overall manner that continued to provide a sufficient amount of equity cushion, such as the current 15x status, that I concluded that I was comfortable with the way that my various investments were spread out.  On the other hand, I do have a plan that in the coming years, I am likely going to begin to liquidate 1% per quarter of my BTC value so long as BTC's price are at least greater than $5k.  There might be some factors that could cause me to shave off more value, including digging into my BTC principle, such as feelings that I might NOT live long enough, or maybe if I feel that I need teeth, something like what Jimbo decided.  

Certainly, I don't feel overly diversified into bitcoin, and surely when BTC prices dropped into the lower $3ks, that is not a good feeling, but at that time my portfolio was still decently UP.. and surely with bitcoin some of us have experienced much more dire corrections than that relative to our own levels of investment, including my portfolio valued at about 65% in the red.. or only 35% of my investment amount during the dip times of 2014/15, so that felt worse in absolute lack of a cushion terms and also in terms of the level of then bitcoin development.. sure, I still felt positive about bitcoin, but a lot of people were suggesting that I cut my losses, etc ..etc.. and I largely held and I would buy from time to time, with what seemed to have been a then constrained cashflow, too.. and questions about whether I should be investing more into something that was already largely in the red for me.

So, it is difficult to be so worried under these kinds of circumstances, even if my percentage of total assets is decently high in bitcoin which causes my net worth to fluctuate on a fairly regular basis a whole hell of a lot more than what I had been previously accustomed to.  

By the way, I was just thinking about this earlier today... in which when BTC prices were in the $8k to $9k territory, and Hairymcbeary was stating that his net worth (or something like that) had reached an ATH which was in part attributed to some of his fortunes from the latest bitcoin dip down to $3k and its return back up and his ability to take advantage of such a dip.  For me, I am tentatively thinking that BTC prices have to return back over $17k for me to be at an ATH in terms of my own personal wealth, so perhaps some folks have better abilities to take advantage of bear markets, yet I am thinking that maybe I am experiencing various kinds of expenses in my life too, and I am inadvertently consuming some of my wealth along the way?  In any event, even though I attempt to monitor where I am at, I do attempt to enjoy my level of wealth, I feel that I have a cushion of wealth that is much beyond my expectations of where I thought that I would be at this stage of my life, even while I try not to be too preoccupied regarding possible mistakes that I make here and there because the projection of bitcoin prices seems that it is going to cause additional upside appreciations and a decent amount of abilities to indulge and to overspend and even to make a decent number of mistakes without necessarily thinking about whether I am being cautionary enough or frugal enough which was a everpresent pattern for the vast majority of my pre-bitcoin life.
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July 10, 2019, 12:10:45 AM


Where else but the WO for proper analysis?

tea leaves? reading goats entrails?.... or how about that magic eight ball thingy?

Anything for an edge, mate.  Mind you, Binance has probably already read this by now and is quietly cornering the fresh goat market.
Yesterday bitcoin spike but binance exchanger market total Altcoin down right now last 8-hour recovery some of coin.

Does Bitcoin spike depend on Bitcoin Halving?
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