Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[BitPirate]

They said : "bitcoin went too high too fast, big bubble danger, stay away"

That's pretty bearish, especially if you believe China has been leading this huge rally to near $1k.  Hmm...not going to say it's time to sell but this certainly isn't a good entry point.  

Bitcoin is currently not sustained by people who are influenced by mainstream media. Even in China. So I don't see this as bearish, it only reflects where we are at right now. The media is right to warn people, but the intelligent person knows that the media more or less doesn't have a clue.

On one hand, I agree with you long-term. On the other, they are dead right. You only have to browse these forums on the vertical rise days and see the mania. The rise is driven 100% by speculation in China, and will fall hard if it continues -- only a matter of time. Damping the flames and triggering a recession now is absolutely the smart thing to do. I say this in the best interest of our future wealth -- a meltdown and ensuing over-reactionary regulation is not what we want.

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[ChartBuddy]

[niothor]

Hey stop... what happen to:
1k by Christmas  ?
All the bears are hibernating ?
To the moon ?
choo choo ?

[MahaRamana]

They said : "bitcoin went too high too fast, big bubble danger, stay away"

That's pretty bearish, especially if you believe China has been leading this huge rally to near $1k.  Hmm...not going to say it's time to sell but this certainly isn't a good entry point.  

Bitcoin is currently not sustained by people who are influenced by mainstream media. Even in China. So I don't see this as bearish, it only reflects where we are at right now. The media is right to warn people, but the intelligent person knows that the media more or less doesn't have a clue.

On one hand, I agree with you long-term. On the other, they are dead right. You only have to browse these forums on the vertical rise days and see the mania. The rise is driven 100% by speculation in China, and will fall hard if it continues -- only a matter of time. Damping the flames and triggering a recession now is absolutely the smart thing to do. I say this in the best interest of our future wealth -- a meltdown and ensuing over-reactionary regulation is not what we want.

Yes, this warning is good for bitcoin and for the chinese. It's maybe short term bearish. I didn't witness the mania in China and the public concerned by this mania so I cannot judge.

[gandhibt]

So many here wishes and feels that the crash is coming. Well sry to inform you guys, but what you wish or feel has very little or nothing to do with the price today or tomorrow. Price is going up, because people have not stopped buying. In fact people are buying shitloads of coins every day and if you sell to them, there's a big possibility that you have to buy back at loss if you want be in the train when we hit 1000, 2000 and maybe even 3000.

[TheNewAnon135246]

So many here wishes and feels that the crash is coming. Well sry to inform you guys, but what you wish or feel has very little or nothing to do with the price today or tomorrow. Price is going up, because people have not stopped buying. In fact people are buying shitloads of coins every day and if you sell to them, there's a big possibility that you have to buy back at loss if you want be in the train when we hit 1000, 2000 and maybe even 3000.

Very true, but still there is nothing wrong with hoping right (even though it is very unlikely to come). I am waiting for a week (or maybe 2) to see what the price does. I am buying more if it stays like this.

[windjc]

They said : "bitcoin went too high too fast, big bubble danger, stay away"

That's pretty bearish, especially if you believe China has been leading this huge rally to near $1k.  Hmm...not going to say it's time to sell but this certainly isn't a good entry point.  

Bitcoin is currently not sustained by people who are influenced by mainstream media. Even in China. So I don't see this as bearish, it only reflects where we are at right now. The media is right to warn people, but the intelligent person knows that the media more or less doesn't have a clue.

On one hand, I agree with you long-term. On the other, they are dead right. You only have to browse these forums on the vertical rise days and see the mania. The rise is driven 100% by speculation in China, and will fall hard if it continues -- only a matter of time. Damping the flames and triggering a recession now is absolutely the smart thing to do. I say this in the best interest of our future wealth -- a meltdown and ensuing over-reactionary regulation is not what we want.

Look, I completely understand your fear. But bitcoins success is going to be determined by the ability of the bitcoin ecosystem to develop innovations that allow the value of bitcoin to become accessible to society.

The open source code of bitcoin itself is way too slow to keep up with expectations that a rising price and media attention are bringing to bitcoin. So there really isn't a way for bitcoin not to look a fool for a while. Bitcoin is going to take some hits - exactly the kind of hits you want us to avoid.  

But just like after April if we crash and burn again, it will be innovation and Eco-system companies that bring people around.

But I fully expect the media and public to sour on bitcoin due to rampant speculation. For a time. And there will be another bubble.

[Coinseeker]

They said : "bitcoin went too high too fast, big bubble danger, stay away"

That's pretty bearish, especially if you believe China has been leading this huge rally to near $1k.  Hmm...not going to say it's time to sell but this certainly isn't a good entry point.  

Bitcoin is currently not sustained by people who are influenced by mainstream media. Even in China. So I don't see this as bearish, it only reflects where we are at right now. The media is right to warn people, but the intelligent person knows that the media more or less doesn't have a clue.

Is this a serious comment?  Where do you think new money learns about Bitcoin?  This certainly isn't your earliest adopters buying BTC up to $900. 

[libity]

Hey stop... what happen to:
1k by Christmas  ?
All the bears are hibernating ?
To the moon ?
choo choo ?

This thread should be renamed the Wall Observer Skitzo-thread.

[MahaRamana]

So many here wishes and feels that the crash is coming. Well sry to inform you guys, but what you wish or feel has very little or nothing to do with the price today or tomorrow. Price is going up, because people have not stopped buying. In fact people are buying shitloads of coins every day and if you sell to them, there's a big possibility that you have to buy back at loss if you want be in the train when we hit 1000, 2000 and maybe even 3000.

I don't know who you are referring to. There are two or three bears around but not more. Personally I don't feel a crash coming. I maybe wish one because I consider my exposure to bitcoin to be too low relative to my available liquidities and would like to make a big purchase. But I am not holding my breath.

I agree that there is a strong possibility that it continues up from here, which is why I am buying some anyways.

[lucas.sev]

They said : "bitcoin went too high too fast, big bubble danger, stay away"

That's pretty bearish, especially if you believe China has been leading this huge rally to near $1k.  Hmm...not going to say it's time to sell but this certainly isn't a good entry point.  

Bitcoin is currently not sustained by people who are influenced by mainstream media. Even in China. So I don't see this as bearish, it only reflects where we are at right now. The media is right to warn people, but the intelligent person knows that the media more or less doesn't have a clue.

Is this a serious comment?  Where do you think new money learns about Bitcoin?  This certainly isn't your earliest adopters buying BTC up to $900. 

That guy is imagining some underground rebels against communist regime of china getting bitcoins to harm the government, lol.

[Coinseeker]

So many here wishes and feels that the crash is coming. Well sry to inform you guys, but what you wish or feel has very little or nothing to do with the price today or tomorrow. Price is going up, because people have not stopped buying. In fact people are buying shitloads of coins every day and if you sell to them, there's a big possibility that you have to buy back at loss if you want be in the train when we hit 1000, 2000 and maybe even 3000.

Actually, what people "wish or feel" is a really good indicator.  It's called sentiment and by itself is not a fool proof indicator but combined with good TA can tell you a lot about future movements. I think we're going down.  Not an April crash but just something reasonable and sustainable.  $400-$500's I'd say.  Which is still a big win for Bitcoin.

[gandhibt]

Put your bids in the $100-200 range.

Good call Walsoraj. Would it be rather in region of 200 or 100?

Depends on the exchange. Closer to 200 on Gox. Around 100 on exchanges w less liquidity.

1. Thank you so much for being the fountain of wisdom here.

2. Thank you for having Kaczynski upside down.

No prob. I try to do what I can, when I can.

Your are doing a great job. I can't find words to describe how grateful I am.

Just remember that there are people here with enough coins and fiat to take everything you have. Consider him a potential coin-predator: Assume he has all the 'buy bids' for the next $100 down. The market is quiet, you are nervous, he is waiting. He wants to buy coins cheaper then the current price, so he happily convinces you that more cheap coins can be had between $100 and $200, you sell your coins on the market, unknowing that he has a stake in many of the buy orders going down the next $50-$100. And you place your buy order at max $200, which means you've been tricked into thinking the price will drop unrealistically low, but at the same time he doesn't need to compete with you to buy back the coins, at the price point you just sold at- he's convincing people who sell, to not try and compete with him to buy the coins back.

Be wary my young friend. There is no free advice here.

+1

[kurious]

According to Fiatleaks - still twice as much cash coming in from CNY as the rest of the world's currencies combined...

And the BTCC seems just flat right now.

Last time, before it corrected, currency in dried up fast.

I am not saying it's a bull market (who can say) - but China does not look like pulling us down right now

[BitPirate]

They said : "bitcoin went too high too fast, big bubble danger, stay away"

That's pretty bearish, especially if you believe China has been leading this huge rally to near $1k.  Hmm...not going to say it's time to sell but this certainly isn't a good entry point.  

Bitcoin is currently not sustained by people who are influenced by mainstream media. Even in China. So I don't see this as bearish, it only reflects where we are at right now. The media is right to warn people, but the intelligent person knows that the media more or less doesn't have a clue.

Is this a serious comment?  Where do you think new money learns about Bitcoin?  This certainly isn't your earliest adopters buying BTC up to $900.  

The vast majority of our friends (not techies or by any means "early adopters") were not interested in investing at $60, they were bored of us and our Bitcoin rambling.

Now that we're at $800 and Bitcoin is in the media, they are desperate to buy. If they all do, we will shoot up to $2000 or $3000 -- I absolutely agree with the bulls. However, be careful what you wish for. We may well crash in a blaze of glory, and most will be burned. TBH I have much higher hopes for bitcoin. Something that appreciates more sensibly  year-on-year is much more valuable to all of us. $3000+ by the end of next year, for example would be very exciting. $500 and restrictive BTC regulation in China -- not so much.

[niothor]

So many here wishes and feels that the crash is coming. Well sry to inform you guys, but what you wish or feel has very little or nothing to do with the price today or tomorrow. Price is going up, because people have not stopped buying. In fact people are buying shitloads of coins every day and if you sell to them, there's a big possibility that you have to buy back at loss if you want be in the train when we hit 1000, 2000 and maybe even 3000.

Actually, what people "wish or feel" is a really good indicator.  It's called sentiment and by itself is not a fool proof indicator but combined with good TA can tell you a lot about future movements. I think we're going down.  Not an April crash but just something reasonable and sustainable.  $400-$500's I'd say.  Which is still a big win for Bitcoin.

Fasten your seat belts , we're fuc***!

[Coinseeker]

So many here wishes and feels that the crash is coming. Well sry to inform you guys, but what you wish or feel has very little or nothing to do with the price today or tomorrow. Price is going up, because people have not stopped buying. In fact people are buying shitloads of coins every day and if you sell to them, there's a big possibility that you have to buy back at loss if you want be in the train when we hit 1000, 2000 and maybe even 3000.

Actually, what people "wish or feel" is a really good indicator.  It's called sentiment and by itself is not a fool proof indicator but combined with good TA can tell you a lot about future movements. I think we're going down.  Not an April crash but just something reasonable and sustainable.  $400-$500's I'd say.  Which is still a big win for Bitcoin.

Fasten your seat belts , we're fuc***!

 

[gandhibt]

So many here wishes and feels that the crash is coming. Well sry to inform you guys, but what you wish or feel has very little or nothing to do with the price today or tomorrow. Price is going up, because people have not stopped buying. In fact people are buying shitloads of coins every day and if you sell to them, there's a big possibility that you have to buy back at loss if you want be in the train when we hit 1000, 2000 and maybe even 3000.

Actually, what people "wish or feel" is a really good indicator.  It's called sentiment and by itself is not a fool proof indicator but combined with good TA can tell you a lot about future movements. I think we're going down.  Not an April crash but just something reasonable and sustainable.  $400-$500's I'd say.  Which is still a big win for Bitcoin.

Maybe, but what people generally wish or feel has very little to do with what people write here in this forum. We're clearly in "bubble-mode" and we are not going to stay here under important support and then just go lower. We're going to see fight for $1000 and there's a big possibility that it will break rather easily which will shift a new gear to this rally once again.

[rpietila]

Yes, this warning is good for bitcoin and for the chinese. It's maybe short term bearish. I didn't witness the mania in China and the public concerned by this mania so I cannot judge.

It crossed Y1,000 in Oct 19, and (almost) hit Y7,000 in Nov 19.

+600% in one month, followed by a -50% initial reaction and now struggling to consolidate high in 5,000s.

So many here wishes and feels that the crash is coming. Well sry to inform you guys, but what you wish or feel has very little or nothing to do with the price today or tomorrow. Price is going up, because people have not stopped buying. In fact people are buying shitloads of coins every day and if you sell to them, there's a big possibility that you have to buy back at loss if you want be in the train when we hit 1000, 2000 and maybe even 3000.

Now this reeks of desperation. I feel ( )that in the end the bears are right after all. They can sit on both the fiat gains and the bitcoin gains, whereas the bulls will rush to the exits when we go south because their portfolio is all-in and it is consuming them.

It takes roughly the same amount of new money entering in, to raise the price from $200 to $800 than it takes from $800 to $1400. In the October runup, we had undervalued starting point, stellar news and China mania. For December, we have "to the moon" from people who have no fiat in their bank account that could possibly lift it to(wards) the moon, short-term overvaluation, and an overhang of pending sales from rational investors who diversify as price rises.

You dream of exponential new money flowing in. Yeah, long term you are right. Just hold onto your coins while we dig deeper  

[gandhibt]

They said : "bitcoin went too high too fast, big bubble danger, stay away"

That's pretty bearish, especially if you believe China has been leading this huge rally to near $1k.  Hmm...not going to say it's time to sell but this certainly isn't a good entry point.  

Bitcoin is currently not sustained by people who are influenced by mainstream media. Even in China. So I don't see this as bearish, it only reflects where we are at right now. The media is right to warn people, but the intelligent person knows that the media more or less doesn't have a clue.

Is this a serious comment?  Where do you think new money learns about Bitcoin?  This certainly isn't your earliest adopters buying BTC up to $900.  

The vast majority of our friends (not techies or by any means "early adopters") were not interested in investing at $60, they were bored of us and our Bitcoin rambling.

Now that we're at $800 and Bitcoin is in the media, they are desperate to buy. If they all do, we will shoot up to $2000 or $3000 -- I absolutely agree with the bulls. However, be careful what you wish for. We may well crash in a blaze of glory, and most will be burned. TBH I have much higher hopes for bitcoin. Something that appreciates more sensibly  year-on-year is much more valuable to all of us. $3000+ by the end of next year, for example would be very exciting. $500 and restrictive BTC regulation in China -- not so much.

Don't you see how you confuse your hopes with your predicts of future? Lets first decide where the price might go and then talk is't a good or bad thing for bitcoin. These two are clearly different things.