Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[niothor]

Come on Zangelbert.  You can't possibly believe everybody is going to get rich?  I mean, sure, if bitcoin is a more efficient method of payment and finance in general, then it will benefit the general population, much like the internet itself has already provided many benefits to the economy. But it doesn't instantaneously transform everybody into millionairs.

Not instantly. I said financial freedom in a decade or two, and I mean by today's standards.

Bitcoin is more than just frictionless payments and finance. It's a complete restructuring of the world and the elimination of many inefficiencies that held people back. The removal of those inefficiencies isn't just going to make sending money cheaper and some online goods available at a discount. It will enable whole new industries like the Internet has, but it goes far beyond even that. It fundamentally, radically decentralizes power. It blows away most of the borders that kept people from participating in the international division of labor. It thwarts all kind of oppression, especially economic oppression.

It is "rat poison," as Charlie Munger inadvertently said, or as Chamath Palihapitiya called it, "schmuck insurance." Power to the people. Truly free markets, everywhere. Think China during Mao's reign versus now. That's the kind of change that's coming. Even for people who never invest in this bull market.

You said not instantly , but you still stay by the word "everybody'?
Common , that's an utopian never to be achieved dream.

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[gandhibt]

Bitcoin is not magically cheap at $750, just because it was trading at $900 for a few hours, and twice bounced back.

That new money is going to the exchanges does not automatically mean that it will be invested the first day if the price is trending down and/or hitting a resistance.

Number of bitcoins to be sold in the event of crash trumps any and all new money easily.

1% of 12 million bitcoins = BTC120,000 = $100M

Current bid depth in all the exchanges combined = $70M.

So <1% of all bitcoins could crash the price to zero.

Of course they wouldn't do it, but it is just naive to think that only the buyers decide the price. In the short term it is very much the sellers who decide, because transferring fiat to the exchanges takes long, and if the sellers take it down like in 10-17. April, new money does not even want to buy any more in the following confusion.

Sure we can go up from here, but if we do, my previous estimate of going up to $2-$3k and then crash to way less than $1k remains valid. Even if the new money entering goes parabolic, increasingly more sellers emerge as they can finally cash out $millions, transform their life, AND leave enough bitcoins to become ultra-rich if the rise continues. This will put some dampener to the price, which is already much ahead of the exponential trend.

The double top and an intermediate term bear market remains a possibility. That would be something new

Funny that nobody is questioning why the price rocketed up before all the positive news and is now struggling...

$350 is cheap, it is the ATH from 15 days ago

$500 is a reasonable level to start buyback.

If you buy into the delusion of bitcoin singularity, remember it was me who prophesied it first.  

so you're buying back in now?

[PrymeTyme]

Bulls Game Plan


Bullish defense levels @

750
730
670 < point of capitulation , if that breaks we head towards 450


Bullish attacking levels @

820
835
890
ATH < if that breaks , its going To Da Moon

[macsga]

It's a nice story you put up here about all going rich fast etc... Do you ever wonder where these money came from? Maybe ALL the inflation around the world found its way into a new robust medium? Can someone say to me why the US (and other) Governments are backing up Bitcoin? Can someone say to me why the Banks are (silently) supporting it (or at least are not against it?).

If you have answer to these questions then you *may* be able to predict where this is going (and why so fast). For the story; I don't. I'm just a regular here who posts memes...  

[Zangelbert Bingledack]

You said not instantly , but you still stay by the word "everybody'?
Common , that's an utopian never to be achieved dream.

You're quoting Spaceman_Spiff, not me. I said "just about everyone." And this has already happened before: Just about everyone in the US is wealthy by 1950 standards, and especially by pre-industrial, and most especially by feudal standards. One to two decades is a long time these days.

[TERA]

The parabolic speculative trendline is diverging from the linear support trendline. Each correction becomes deeper and more violent with more coins, and a longer recovery. I think the next correction will be the crash. It will be a "correction" from some parabolic speculative $1700 (or maybe $2500) back to the supporting trendline which will be at $650, and go down to $500 due to momentum. The magnitude of the correction will make it the crash.

I will have no regrets about selling half my coins in the mid 1000s. 1200% gain is enough.

[Zangelbert Bingledack]

It's a nice story you put up here about all going rich fast etc... Do you ever wonder where these money came from? Maybe ALL the inflation around the world found its way into a new robust medium? Can someone say to me why the US (and other) Governments are backing up Bitcoin? Can someone say to me why the Banks are (silently) supporting it (or at least are not against it?).

If you have answer to these questions then you *may* be able to predict where this is going (and why so fast). For the story; I don't. I'm just a regular here who posts memes...  

You might be thinking of the economy as a zero-sum game. Take a look at these:

Trade is Made of Win
Trade is Made of Win, Part 2

[niothor]

Come on Zangelbert.  You can't possibly believe everybody is going to get rich?  I mean, sure, if bitcoin is a more efficient method of payment and finance in general, then it will benefit the general population, much like the internet itself has already provided many benefits to the economy. But it doesn't instantaneously transform everybody into millionairs.

Not instantly. I said financial freedom in a decade or two, and I mean by today's standards.

Bitcoin is more than just frictionless payments and finance. It's a complete restructuring of the world and the elimination of many inefficiencies that held people back. The removal of those inefficiencies isn't just going to make sending money cheaper and some online goods available at a discount. It will enable whole new industries like the Internet has, but it goes far beyond even that. It fundamentally, radically decentralizes power. It blows away most of the borders that kept people from participating in the international division of labor. It thwarts all kind of oppression, especially economic oppression.

It is "rat poison," as Charlie Munger inadvertently said, or as Chamath Palihapitiya called it, "schmuck insurance." Power to the people. Truly free markets, everywhere. Think China during Mao's reign versus now. That's the kind of change that's coming. Even for people who never invest in this bull market.

You said not instantly , but you still stay by the word "everybody'?
Common , that's an utopian never to be achieved dream.

You're quoting Spaceman_Spiff, not me. I said "just about everyone." And this has already happened before: Just about everyone is wealthy by 1950 standards, and especially by pre-industrial, and most especially by feudal standards. One to two decades is a long time these days.

I now he said that , but you didn't denied the word everyone , just the time frame.
And I really don't get it how you can say everyone is wealthy now by the 1950 standards.
Wha??? Even the beggars are bow wealthy by the feudal age standard?
I 'm missing something or I haven't had enough coffee.

[maz]

Since in 80% of the scenarios it will come down to these levels or less, I am in no hurry to buy back. It helps that in the event of moon, I am still numbered among the ultra rich.

EDIT: I read Zangelbert's estimates only after producing mine.

Probably born that way as well.

[Gordonium]

Mark my words. The Great Crash is coming.

[Searing]

Bulls Game Plan


Bullish defense levels @

750
730
670 < point of capitulation , if that breaks we head towards 450


Bullish attacking levels @

820
835
890
ATH < if that breaks , its going To Da Moon

i bow to your expertise ..beats me flipping a coin on stay/cashout on my whole 1 month of mining and 25 coins by the 30th more or less

you do not want to be a NOOB now in this....it looks like a rocket it goes up like rocket..is it a moon rocket or an evil knieval oops moment kinda rocket

(should prob go back to flipping coin..at least i'd have denialblity if it all goes south)

[rpietila]

$350 is cheap, it is the ATH from 15 days ago

$500 is a reasonable level to start buyback.

so you're buying back in now?

Now, meaning 'at the moment', I am not buying back in. The price is above $500. My average sale price is $672 and I am not a daytrader. It has to go down a lot before I care to buy back.

Now, meaning 'whether I changed the strategy concerning what to do', the answer is: strategy stays the same until something new happens. Just that price follows some of my old scenarios (goes up, down, or stays put) is not considered 'new'. I don't think I will ever buy bitcoins above $500. If it goes to the moon, my next problem will be when and how much to sell more, as my bitcoins are worth $100M and the rest of my wealth is just a few million$.

I should really post my wisdom concerning position management, because so many are clueless about it.

[Davyd05]

The parabolic speculative trendline is diverging from the linear support trendline. Each correction becomes deeper and more violent with more coins. I think the next correction will be the crash. It will be a "correction" from some parabolic speculative $1700 back to the supporting trendline which will be at $650, and go down to $500 due to momentum. The magnitude of the correction will make it the crash.

I will have no regrets about selling half my coins around 1500. 1200% gain is enough.

good lord man.. these kind of posts become self fulfilling prophecies ( i pray ).. don't think I know you're already at 1499.99 : D

however.. the time frame is an important part of the call.. I dunno if it will just bounce around 800-820 with the odd dip into the 750s all Sunday.. or challenge new highs or lows, I guess this depends on the markets feel.. I dunno if the new money that made it in last week or ( I get processed bill payments from Friday click over by 12:05am Monday the latest) is gonna be bullish.. and after reading horror stories of buy ins at 850.. followed by panic sells at 450 and re buys at 720.. speak volumes to the possibility of dangerous amounts volatility to new weak hands .

also whats healthier for Bitcoin downtrend to 550.. or uptrend past 1k?

[maz]

Mark my words. The Great Crash is coming.

Registered a month before the April crash. Hell, all you've experienced is crash, no wonder your all doom an gloom

[ardana123]

I think it's hilarious people think we will hit 1k+ prices. No way that's gonna happen without major dumping at 1k, which will undoubtedly lead to the Great Crash.

[rpietila]

I am still numbered among the ultra rich.

Probably born that way as well.

Not really. We had a small farm and none of us kids has a university degree.

[Erdogan]

Even if you do not catch the crypto currency wave early, you will still benefit of the fairness and wealth-creating/preserving aspects of this technology.

A new Golden Age.

It's true I was kind of ambivalent about investing at one point because I thought, "If Bitcoin succeeds, just about everyone is eventually going to be rich by today's standards anyway, whether they bought in or not." It's more about how fast you want to get there. If you invest now, you get to experience financial freedom in a year or two, instead of a decade or two.

Come on Zangelbert.  You can't possibly believe everybody is going to get rich?  I mean, sure, if bitcoin is a more efficient method of payment and finance in general, then it will benefit the general population, much like the internet itself has already provided many benefits to the economy. But it doesn't instantaneously transform everybody into millionairs.

Everyone but the last adopters will profit from the appreciation to varying degrees.

The last adopters will have the advantage of sound money, which is not available now. They can save normally and expect to have the full value when they later want to spend them. Now they have to save in the form of a too large house, which is wasting. (A rightly sized house is not good enough for saving for retirement, because you need the house also when you are retired). In Argentina, currently the peso users buy overly expensive cars, obviously a bad investment, but still better than keeping the pesos.

And the really big thieves in the banks will have to stop leeching and do something useful, like mowing you lawn for bitcoins. Abundance for all.

[maz]

I am still numbered among the ultra rich.

Probably born that way as well.

Not really. We had a small farm and none of us kids has a university degree.

Kudos

[Zangelbert Bingledack]

I now he said that , but you didn't denied the word everyone , just the time frame.
And I really don't get it how you can say everyone is wealthy now by the 1950 standards.
Wha??? Even the beggars are bow wealthy by the feudal age standard?
I 'm missing something or I haven't had enough coffee.

Again, I said "almost everyone," so not necessarily including beggars. Consider how much things have really changed:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m-LJ3wZjD4I&t=3m45s

[Searing]

Mark my words. The Great Crash is coming.

I tend to agree...at least at a gut level....but if BTC is not just a speculative fad it will come back...or die like the TULIP it was trying to be....a market (assuming it survives) will always go back to its previous high may take a day or a decade...the key here is it can yo/yo all it wants ...what is the end game say 5yrs or more from now.....is it a beanie baby fad that passes....or a paypal/ebay/inet game changer

anyway....I'm mining now... may mine later..not sure about speculating on up/down...may just mine and hold...if in the delusion of my mind I can show that the miners at least paid for themselves "on paper" I can probably live with that .....comfort level wise....if i'm wrong I still have some gains..if i'm right ..then no need to be greedy...risk vs reward don't ya know..i'll still be way ahead.....

anyway noob comfort level 1 armor 1 weapon 1 loincloth is where i am with this game so far...