Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Vycid]

Every aborted crash is extra confidence in the $800 level.

I agree, but this is also confusing for me. It feels like we are "burning in" the $800 price... and yet it is so high above the exponential growth trend line.

*shrugs* I am just a buy & hold kind of guy, but my friends keep asking me if they should buy bitcoins, and I'm not sure what to tell them at these prices (... I always say yes, but I hesitate!)

The exponential trend line is a myth. Media awareness may grow at an exponential rate at first, but there is a "hype" effect that will cause it to eventually depart the exponential trajectory.

I believe we are seeing that now: all time Google Trends high, it is showing up regularly on network news, etc. It's not reasonable to assume that we can go from occasional web journalism to news networks without departing the trend.

Also, the amount invested by every individual joining the ecosystem will grow over time, since there's an intangible measure of "trustworthiness" Bitcoin gains by surviving each successive bubble.

Trend lines are fantastic predictors of the past, but their predictive power for the future is not so simple; you are drawing this trend, then assuming that the trend is created by some fundamental mechanism of growth. Unless you are correct in the assumption of some fundamental mechanism which will continue into the future, the trend will fail to accurately predict.

So really, without thinking about what the mechanisms of growth really are, it's just a blind guess.

[1714624211]

1714624211

[nanobrain]

Every aborted crash is extra confidence in the $800 level.

I agree, but this is also confusing for me. It feels like we are "burning in" the $800 price... and yet it is so high above the exponential growth trend line.

*shrugs* I am just a buy & hold kind of guy, but my friends keep asking me if they should buy bitcoins, and I'm not sure what to tell them at these prices (... I always say yes, but I hesitate!)

The exponential trend line is a myth. Media awareness may grow at an exponential rate at first, but there is a "hype" effect that will cause it to eventually depart the exponential trajectory.

I believe we are seeing that now: all time Google Trends high, it is showing up regularly on network news, etc. It's not reasonable to assume that we can go from occasional web journalism to news networks without departing the trend.

Also, the amount invested by every individual joining the ecosystem will grow over time, since there's an intangible measure of "trustworthiness" Bitcoin gains by surviving each successive bubble.

Great post.
I'd say the main obstacle is the network itself and its infrastructure...can it take the strain...Gox and Stamps issues over the last few weeks are not encouraging.

[SheHadMANHands]

Every aborted crash is extra confidence in the $800 level.

I agree, but this is also confusing for me. It feels like we are "burning in" the $800 price... and yet it is so high above the exponential growth trend line.

*shrugs* I am just a buy & hold kind of guy, but my friends keep asking me if they should buy bitcoins, and I'm not sure what to tell them at these prices (... I always say yes, but I hesitate!)

The exponential trend line is a myth. Media awareness may grow at an exponential rate at first, but there is a "hype" effect that will cause it to eventually depart the exponential trajectory.

I believe we are seeing that now: all time Google Trends high, it is showing up regularly on network news, etc. It's not reasonable to assume that we can go from occasional web journalism to news networks without departing the trend.

Also, the amount invested by every individual joining the ecosystem will grow over time, since there's an intangible measure of "trustworthiness" Bitcoin gains by surviving each successive bubble.

Pretty much this.

No TA involved..

[Walsoraj]

..... 

capitulation?

The night is still young.

[Vigil]

I think we are headed lower.

[justusranvier]

The exponential trend line is a myth. Media awareness may grow at an exponential rate at first, but there is a "hype" effect that will cause it to eventually depart the exponential trajectory.

I believe we are seeing that now: all time Google Trends high, it is showing up regularly on network news, etc. It's not reasonable to assume that we can go from occasional web journalism to news networks without departing the trend.

Also, the amount invested by every individual joining the ecosystem will grow over time, since there's an intangible measure of "trustworthiness" Bitcoin gains by surviving each successive bubble.

Trend lines are fantastic predictors of the past, but their predictive power for the future is not so simple; you are drawing this trend, then assuming that the trend is created by some fundamental mechanism of growth. Unless you are correct in the assumption of some fundamental mechanism which will continue into the future, the trend will fail to accurately predict.

So really, without thinking about what the mechanisms of growth really are, it's just a blind guess.

[BitchicksHusband]

Every aborted crash is extra confidence in the $800 level.

I agree, but this is also confusing for me. It feels like we are "burning in" the $800 price... and yet it is so high above the exponential growth trend line.

*shrugs* I am just a buy & hold kind of guy, but my friends keep asking me if they should buy bitcoins, and I'm not sure what to tell them at these prices (... I always say yes, but I hesitate!)

The exponential trend line is a myth. Media awareness may grow at an exponential rate at first, but there is a "hype" effect that will cause it to eventually depart the exponential trajectory.

I believe we are seeing that now: all time Google Trends high, it is showing up regularly on network news, etc. It's not reasonable to assume that we can go from occasional web journalism to news networks without departing the trend.

Also, the amount invested by every individual joining the ecosystem will grow over time, since there's an intangible measure of "trustworthiness" Bitcoin gains by surviving each successive bubble.

Trend lines are fantastic predictors of the past, but their predictive power for the future is not so simple; you are drawing this trend, then assuming that the trend is created by some fundamental mechanism of growth. Unless you are correct in the assumption of some fundamental mechanism which will continue into the future, the trend will fail to accurately predict.

So really, without thinking about what the mechanisms of growth really are, it's just a blind guess.

When we're done, we'll just realize that it was a steeper growth curve than we thought at the time and that we were at a different spot in the curve than we thought.

But yeah, if the Square/Starbucks rumor is true, then next week will be VERY interesting.

[Vycid]

The exponential trend line is a myth. Media awareness may grow at an exponential rate at first, but there is a "hype" effect that will cause it to eventually depart the exponential trajectory.

I believe we are seeing that now: all time Google Trends high, it is showing up regularly on network news, etc. It's not reasonable to assume that we can go from occasional web journalism to news networks without departing the trend.

Also, the amount invested by every individual joining the ecosystem will grow over time, since there's an intangible measure of "trustworthiness" Bitcoin gains by surviving each successive bubble.

Trend lines are fantastic predictors of the past, but their predictive power for the future is not so simple; you are drawing this trend, then assuming that the trend is created by some fundamental mechanism of growth. Unless you are correct in the assumption of some fundamental mechanism which will continue into the future, the trend will fail to accurately predict.

So really, without thinking about what the mechanisms of growth really are, it's just a blind guess.

This is a great illustration of how well an exponential trend line can predict the past.

Could you get me a plot without data from the last month, with a trend superimposed (just like this one), so we can compare?

[justusranvier]

This is a great illustration of how well an exponential trend line can predict the past.

That's not an exponential trendline.

[Vycid]

This is a great illustration of how well an exponential trend line can predict the past.

That's not an exponential trendline.

What is it? Equation would help.

[n8rwJeTt8TrrLKPa55eU]

Memo to would-be weekend manipulators: your shenanigans are becoming sad and pathetic.

Most coins are now held by strong hands not stupid enough to believe that whales would permanently liquidate large coinage at the time of the week when there is the least liquidity.  We all know you are trying to trigger fake panics and bearish technical formations.   And we know you intend to buy those coins back just as quickly as you sold them.

If you want us to stop yawning, do a dump on a weekday, when people are awake, during real banking hours.

[Vigil]

If you want us to stop yawning, drop the price lower.

[solex]

The usual Monday morning incoming fiat tide will drown the bears.

[byronbb]

Memo to would-be weekend manipulators: your shenanigans are becoming sad and pathetic.

Most coins are now held by strong hands not stupid enough to believe that whales would permanently liquidate large coinage at the time of the week when there is the least liquidity.  We all know you are trying to trigger fake panics and bearish technical formations.   And we know you intend to buy those coins back just as quickly as you sold them.

If you want us to stop yawning, do a dump on a weekday, when people are awake, during real banking hours.

Ya seems almost like someone had filled the order book on the buy side then dropped bids and sold. That was a big drop for such low volume.

[Vycid]

Every aborted crash is extra confidence in the $800 level.

I agree, but this is also confusing for me. It feels like we are "burning in" the $800 price... and yet it is so high above the exponential growth trend line.

*shrugs* I am just a buy & hold kind of guy, but my friends keep asking me if they should buy bitcoins, and I'm not sure what to tell them at these prices (... I always say yes, but I hesitate!)

The exponential trend line is a myth. Media awareness may grow at an exponential rate at first, but there is a "hype" effect that will cause it to eventually depart the exponential trajectory.

I believe we are seeing that now: all time Google Trends high, it is showing up regularly on network news, etc. It's not reasonable to assume that we can go from occasional web journalism to news networks without departing the trend.

Also, the amount invested by every individual joining the ecosystem will grow over time, since there's an intangible measure of "trustworthiness" Bitcoin gains by surviving each successive bubble.

Trend lines are fantastic predictors of the past, but their predictive power for the future is not so simple; you are drawing this trend, then assuming that the trend is created by some fundamental mechanism of growth. Unless you are correct in the assumption of some fundamental mechanism which will continue into the future, the trend will fail to accurately predict.

So really, without thinking about what the mechanisms of growth really are, it's just a blind guess.

An addendum: there ARE ways to model growth in dynamic systems (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/System_dynamics). By no means do I have the technical background for this - but it CAN be done. I wonder if someone is already profiting from a model.

Projecting an exponential curve in Excel on old data does not create new information.

[olli]

And while gox and stamp get double dips on the 15 mins chart, the pandas are just like: wat?

[accord01]

It always happens at this time of the weekend, right after the last bitstamp deposits are made and no more will be made for 30-40 hrs...

[Nightowlace]

Every aborted crash is extra confidence in the $800 level.

I agree, but this is also confusing for me. It feels like we are "burning in" the $800 price... and yet it is so high above the exponential growth trend line.

*shrugs* I am just a buy & hold kind of guy, but my friends keep asking me if they should buy bitcoins, and I'm not sure what to tell them at these prices (... I always say yes, but I hesitate!)

The exponential trend line is a myth. Media awareness may grow at an exponential rate at first, but there is a "hype" effect that will cause it to eventually depart the exponential trajectory.

I believe we are seeing that now: all time Google Trends high, it is showing up regularly on network news, etc. It's not reasonable to assume that we can go from occasional web journalism to news networks without departing the trend.

Also, the amount invested by every individual joining the ecosystem will grow over time, since there's an intangible measure of "trustworthiness" Bitcoin gains by surviving each successive bubble.

Trend lines are fantastic predictors of the past, but their predictive power for the future is not so simple; you are drawing this trend, then assuming that the trend is created by some fundamental mechanism of growth. Unless you are correct in the assumption of some fundamental mechanism which will continue into the future, the trend will fail to accurately predict.

So really, without thinking about what the mechanisms of growth really are, it's just a blind guess.

When we're done, we'll just realize that it was a steeper growth curve than we thought at the time and that we were at a different spot in the curve than we thought.

But yeah, if the Square/Starbucks rumor is true, then next week will be VERY interesting.

Square/starbucks rumor? Do tell?

[olli]

The only sad thing is that I'm already out of fiat due to the previous dips, oh you bears

[dillpicklechips]

Square/starbucks rumor? Do tell?

http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1r1gu5/starbucks_to_make_announcement_regarding_bitcoin/