Maybe we are misunderstanding each other to some degree?
You mentioned an ability to plan retirement based on BTC and around BTC 4 year cycles.
So, I was trying to ask you at what point you would be able to retire upon such anticipated ongoing bitcoin price cycles.
Between $30k - $50k, that shoud be achieved within this bullmarket.
O.k. Yes, I agree that seems like a reasonable BTC price range that has decent odds of being achieved within the next BTC bullmarket cycle - of course, not guaranteed but reasonably within the realm of fair possibilities.
It seems that you have already answered the other part of my question, Paashaas, regarding what you are going to do, but I am not 100% sure about that, which seems to be that you are not selling your bitcoin during such anticipated BTC price run, so you will likely be riding through this next bullrun and not really able to say "fuck you" with any confidence and irreversibility emphasis until $30k to $50k becomes our BTC floor, and you likely would not be retiring under such premature bridge burning circumstances because it is NOT as likely that $30k to $50k is going to be the bottom of the subsequent correction that could happen from whatever BTC price that we end up achieving in this next upcoming cycle, whether it is $50k, $100k $350k, or some other price (even possibly higher).
I believe that many of us regulars in the WO thread realize that there are decent odds of volatility that passes both ways through such $30k to $50k range.
Of course, many of us regular of the WO thread would be hopeful that the lower end of the $30k to $50k range would be the bottom of the next BTC price correction, yet we are far from guaranteed until we go through such cycle.... which should be scary for any of us who has not yet reached more permanent and sustainable "fuck you" status, and no one should be anywhere close to 100% clear where the upcoming BTC price cycle is going to take us.
Currently, I am considering that my range of comfortable "fuck you" status is about 10% of your range - so really my "fuck you" range is within the $3k to $5k arena, and that is likely based on my having had invested pretty damned BIG (relatively speaking) during 2014-2016 - but perhaps even based on my having much more capital at my disposal during that 2014-2016 time-period - in which I was taking money from my already existing investment funds that I had been building over nearly 30 years and to put about 10%-ish of that already existing stash (ended up being a bit more than 10%) from those funds into bitcoin.
But anyhow, surely seems to be a reasonable number for anyone who is investing into bitcoin and not necessarily relying on saying "fuck you" anytime soon but seeing a number that is within reach - and also it will likely be possible that during the next BTC price correction, we are going to have bottom areas that are in the $30k to $50k range - even if it is also quite possible to dip below that range, too. Do I sound waffly? Of course, since I had only invested as much as I had been wiling to lose into bitcoin, and I surely was prepared for BTC dips in this last cycle that went below my preferred $3k to $5k range, and still we are not completely removed from going below my "fuck you" range, because for me, it would have been a matter of less preferable to go below such range, even if such possibility is still within reach, but I have still been o.k. with losing the possibility of losing whatever gains have so far come that - just kind of falling out of the minimum "fuck you" territory.
Part of the reason that I feel o.k. in my skin in sounding waffly is because I hate to count my chickens before they are hatched, so in that regard, even if there are decent odds that your price range of $30k to $50k is achievable in the next cycle, I am also a bit concerned that there are possibilities that $3k to $5k is no longer going to hold (really low possibilities, but possibilities nonetheless).
Accordingly, none of us should be counting our chickens before they are hatched... which causes me to always have a more conservative range of only averaging an achievement of 6% per year BTC price appreciation (from whatever is today's price) as another possible and concededly more conservative but still positive in terms of BTC returns on the lower area of BTC prices expectations scenario.
Financial and psychological conservativism is also a process that never attempts to count chickens before they are hatched, but kind of plans ahead from today's BTC price, so of course, whenever there are boosts in today's BTC price (such as when we went up 42% in 12 hours on October 25th) that "going up" merely seems to contribute to some kind of additional BTC price (and psychology) cushion - of course a psychology and financial cushion that could not be relied on with any kind of solid certainty to be sustained, but still with the passage of time these kinds of seemingly non-sustainable psychological and financial cushions can seem to build towards causing a stronger and stronger psychological and financial base, especially with a longer and longer passage of time, maybe even 3 to 5 years of working on buying, HODLing and accumulating BTC... during such ongoing seemingly outrageous ups and downs that ends up largely amounting to quite a bit more UPs than downs (thank you daddy bitcoin) with a base and a bottom that is largely "in" and a bottom, hopefully, that at some point in the near future is higher than our minimum "fuck you" status price range.. and the higher that we remain above our minimum "fuck you" status BTC price range bottom, the more that we can likely feel assured that our "fuck you" status is has become sustainably permanent rather than either wishful or temporary... and maybe, even we can pull the trigger in real life in both a psychological and financial way, and actually say "fuck you" to some actual real world peeps (perhaps making such "fuck you" speech to real world no coiners or whoever else happens to be in the area upon such excited real world utterance(s)?
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Feels good man.
Maybe we are misunderstanding each other to some degree?
You mentioned an ability to plan retirement based on BTC and around BTC 4 year cycles.
So, I was trying to ask you at what point you would be able to retire upon such anticipated ongoing bitcoin price cycles.
Between $30k - $50k, that shoud be achieved within this bullmarket.
Double that price bracket will be achieved within this bullmarket
I agree LFC in terms of the ceiling of our anticipated upcoming BTC price run, but what about the subsequent floor that comes after the ceiling for BTC HODLer peeps who really do not plan on selling their BTC in any kinds of large amounts but instead plan to HODL the vast majority of their BTC through our seemingly upcoming and expected BTC price cycles and perhaps just to shave off some value from their BTC portfolio here and there along the way?
There seem to be a certain number of regular WO thread participants, and Paashaas seems to be one of them, who seem to be quite disincline to sell large portions of his BTC holdings, even while realistically anticipating the various possible parameters of our next BTC price run, but instead remains in a kind of incrementalism mindset in terms of how he (they) plan to manage these BTC cycles in terms of long term BTC holdings' management and just anticipate HODLing through upcoming likely crazy-ass BTC price cycles while merely shaving off some value here and there along the way.
What do you say about that? You cannot really change the BTC management plans of others, but instead each of these peeps (whether WO regulars or not) has to figure out his/her own road forward, including the risks that any such deferral of gratification plan in regard to their BTC holdings might have (both in terms of finances and psychologically).
Poll
