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Question: When $60K? (EST time zone)
Feb. 21 - 7 (5.7%)
Feb. 22 - 19 (15.6%)
Feb. 23 - 13 (10.7%)
Feb. 24 - 9 (7.4%)
Feb. 25 - 8 (6.6%)
Feb. 26 - 9 (7.4%)
Feb. 27 - 3 (2.5%)
Feb. 28 - 4 (3.3%)
March - 28 (23%)
After March - 14 (11.5%)
Never - 8 (6.6%)
Total Voters: 122

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 25186140 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (157 posts by 13 users deleted.)
somac.
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November 15, 2019, 11:15:29 PM
Merited by mindrust (5), vapourminer (1), JayJuanGee (1), Last of the V8s (1)

Well, talking about the old timers.
Jesse Livermore said that once you start counting on the market to do something specific that would allow you to buy a new house, etc, like "it would go to 100K in 18 mo", it always bites you in the proverbial ass. In 2017 NOBODY expected 20K when it was still below 1K in march or april, yet it happened.

That's exactly what worries me the most: Having so much hope that Bitcoin will get over the previous ATH sometime in the next couple of years as if it were an almost SURE thing... really scares myself and makes me wonder if I am just being naive/delusional.

Also, the amount of hodlers that have plans to sell a significant percentage of their stash during the next bull run seems (maybe I am wrong) to be way bigger than previous times (where there were much less expectations). That alone would require huge liquidity on the buy side just to sustain the price.


As long as Bitcoins user growth continues, Bitcoin is mathematically designed to appreciate in value over the long term. That's what the halving is all about. So keep an eye on demand only, because the supply side is sorted.

There is however the existing supply that is being saved (hoarded), you also need to keep an eye on that. But, as previous runs have shown this is taken up very easily by increased demand and coins aged over 5 years are unaffected. See link:

https://hodlwave.com/

Bitcoin is what is known as a supply restricted market. These types of markets always have large booms and large busts. Think of the property markets that are also supply restricted. Some Californian cities are a good example. Restricted supply of new housing (supply) and high international and national immigration, with loose credit conditions (demand). On the way up everyone holds onto their home because it goes up in value more than the earn, and everyone who doesn't own wants in quick because FOMO for a basic living requirement. These are the new holders. Of course at some point the price just gets too high, fraudulent lending finds no more customers, then price starts to dip. We all know what happens next.

Then look at some of the cities in Texas, these don't have large swings in price despite having high population growth (demand). Why? because they build shitloads of housing (supply). Even with the same credit conditions as California these houses don't go ballistic in price.

In summary, demand matches supply, all good. Demand outstrips supply, like it always does every 4 years with bitcoin, boom!

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November 15, 2019, 11:38:41 PM
Merited by mindrust (2)

Well, talking about the old timers.
Jesse Livermore said that once you start counting on the market to do something specific that would allow you to buy a new house, etc, like "it would go to 100K in 18 mo", it always bites you in the proverbial ass. In 2017 NOBODY expected 20K when it was still below 1K in march or april, yet it happened.

That's exactly what worries me the most: Having so much hope that Bitcoin will get over the previous ATH sometime in the next couple of years as if it were an almost SURE thing... really scares myself and makes me wonder if I am just being naive/delusional.

Also, the amount of hodlers that have plans to sell a significant percentage of their stash during the next bull run seems (maybe I am wrong) to be way bigger than previous times (where there were much less expectations). That alone would require huge liquidity on the buy side just to sustain the price.


As long as Bitcoins user growth continues, Bitcoin is mathematically designed to appreciate in value over the long term. That's what the halving is all about. So keep an eye on demand only, because the supply side is sorted.

There is however the existing supply that is being saved (hoarded), you also need to keep an eye on that. But, as previous runs have shown this is taken up very easily by increased demand and coins aged over 5 years are unaffected. See link:

https://hodlwave.com/

Bitcoin is what is known as a supply restricted market. These types of markets always have large booms and large busts. Think of the property markets that are also supply restricted. Some Californian cities are a good example. Restricted supply of new housing (supply) and high international and national immigration, with loose credit conditions (demand). On the way up everyone holds onto their home because it goes up in value more than the earn, and everyone who doesn't own wants in quick because FOMO for a basic living requirement. These are the new holders. Of course at some point the price just gets too high, fraudulent lending finds no more customers, then price starts to dip. We all know what happens next.

Then look at some of the cities in Texas, these don't have large swings in price despite having high population growth (demand). Why? because they build shitloads of housing (supply). Even with the same credit conditions as California these houses don't go ballistic in price.

In summary, demand matches supply, all good. Demand outstrips supply, like it always does every 4 years with bitcoin, boom!


Notice the amount of people HOLDING Bitcoin 18-24 months is expanding, these are all people who bought between November of 2017 to April of 2018 currently. This should continue to expand as this the new wave of HODLERs who bought during the 2018 bear market.
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November 16, 2019, 12:01:37 AM
Merited by mindrust (2), Last of the V8s (1)

No big volume, no sign of the Bargain Boyz to be found. Highly unlikely this downtrend from 14k ends till they show up and declare "cheap coins".

Coins have to be so cheap that they feel compelled to buy. Hopefully the 6ks will do the trick but we all know it could be lower. The massive volume will tell us when. It always has every other time in Bitcoin, this time is not different.

You are exaggerating.  There is no pattern in which every single time that the BTC price trend reversed was upon clear and convincing high volume.  That's nonsense.  Sure sometimes high volume reversal happens and sometimes it does not. failure to appreciate hyperbole and also a bit of denial at a real pattern

Cue the JJG "slayer you are annoying me with your downtrend stuff" even though thats what this has been since 14k for almost 5 months Wink

Call it what you will:  "downtrend" or "correction within a bullmarket"  .. you are still seeming to ascribe too much certainty to something that can go either way... whether subsequently you end up being correct or NOT  or whether you subsequently are able to frame the matter in your favor to assert that you were correct, in the end, you are largely just guessing or playing off some kind of hunch that may or may end up playing out in a way that fits your narrative. JJG once again trying to play god and judge what is too certain or uncertain for another to predict

You better watch out, because you won't want to ascribe being so god damned right to yourself that you end up being like jonoiv or roach or some other unseemly character that gets stuck on a narrative that ends up NOT playing out anywhere close to their repeatedly asserted expectations.. better watch out or blah blah something silly


We all knew the pump to 14k was a minibubble and a minibear market would have to follow.

Nothing wrong with that so long as you are not ascribing too much "have to happen" to how much correction that you believe is "necessary" before UPpity is resumed. arrogantly judging each comment for fitting into or not fitting into JJG belief system parameters

I dont make the rules around here, this is Bitcoin Country.

Glad that you recognize that, at least...even though you are trying to come off as some kind of all knowing sorcerer, which is annoying to say the least... ... ... all who make predictions here claim to be a sorcerer and i hates it so much(even though its not true)

By the way, I could give too ratt's asses about whether you are delivering "unpleasant truths", but that does not seem to be what you are doing.  Instead, you are ascribing too much soothsayer status to your pronouncements in an effort to appear like you are the smartest guy in the room.... which is: obligatory and untrue claim of not caring about the thing that JJG cares about and writes a wall of text in response  Cheesy





Good news is when the mythical Bargain Boyz show up for cheap coins, that will be the last time we ever see those prices and the ride to 100k-200k can commence.  Cheesy

I suspect Bargain Boyz are still loading up on Popeyes right now but will soon turn their attention to corn if we catch their eye with some bargain sub 7k prices. 6400 would really do the trick imo.

oh really? cant argue with your meta popeyes logic sir
 


Nothing like a little JJG essay of anger and self righteousness to brighten the day. Full of pretentious judgement, warnings, false assumptions and mischaracterization. This typically happens before a big drop in price. Its a very bearish indicator short term. 
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November 16, 2019, 12:06:19 AM

Bitcoin is mathematically designed to appreciate in value over the long term.

Thanks for admitting the artificial scarcity events known as "halvings" are no different from Ethereum "doubler" smart contracts aka a Ponzi scam.  The only difference between the two is time span of the automated contract. One is on-demand, variable time units, the other is fixed time units.  Anything dealing with artificial scarcity is always a Keynesian, confidence game scam, so both contracts are mechanically the same Ponzi executed in different ways.
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November 16, 2019, 12:09:18 AM

^Dammit even LS is gone clueless  Shocked

*for some parts Tongue

Team Goose, no need to be bitter bc I wouldnt join your astroturf campaign. Its a brilliant plan to build a huge reputation w merits and posts and sell your account to the highest corporate bidder when Bitcoin is the global reserve currency and Amazon and Microsoft are fighting to buy WO accounts, but I found your proposed pay structure to not be adequate and I like being a solo operation better.  Cheesy

Man actually when was the last time I was bitter cause emotions regarding money-wise ..... let me think..... damn I just think I’m not to bitter of a person man Cheesy

Just as I think I’m the last person on the forum that would sell his account I guess meh not written in stone of-course.... If some brothers would be gone and only the turds be left then I don’t know, but selling and letting someone else write in my name my worst but improving English bit by bit been ruined naaaaaah I could live with that.

Though you acknowledge I build something that’s a nice compliment THX

Trollgoosens, no need to defend your team honor, it wasnt a serious statement, just a silly one in response to your silly comment. Wink
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November 16, 2019, 12:14:33 AM

Trollgoossens = going to HODLsleep

Night bro’s
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November 16, 2019, 12:18:13 AM

Trollgoossens = going to HODLsleep

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November 16, 2019, 12:27:02 AM

Btw for you r0ach where did it went wrong ??

Andreas explained it so many times, NOT your KEYS = NOT your BTC

.......
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November 16, 2019, 12:32:15 AM

^ Talking about Gox.... any news on when they will distribute the coins/fiat? I would like to put that fiat to good use buying some more corn before the halving comes. Any chance?

Also it would be terrible if they keep delaying the distribution and decide to give out the coins at a much higher price. The sooner the better for everyone.
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November 16, 2019, 12:44:49 AM

Hmm, which to pick.

Roundup - causes cancer

Organic, natural insecticide Neem oil - causes impotency if ingested, but will simultaneously cure scabies
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November 16, 2019, 12:57:46 AM
Last edit: November 16, 2019, 01:10:33 AM by bitserve

Roundup = Glyphosate?

I don't know what the hell you are talking about but... maybe you can be of some use here.

Do you know what I could use to kill a palm tree that is too close (almost touching already) to my perimeter wall and I need to kill it before the trunk breaks it? I have thought about drilling some holes in the trunk and filling it either with hydrocloridic acid or glyphosate. Would that be enough? Anything else more appropriate?

P.S.: And no, I can't cut it without risking it damage the wall during the fall nor am willing to pay the expensive bill for contracting the procedure. I just need it to dry and stop growing.



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November 16, 2019, 01:08:54 AM

Good luck Mr Homer. We worry you know.

Jay. Regretted it even before finalising it. btw 0.012 is the figure, so your point though lengthily made, is even more valid.
Anyway he must wait otherwise he'll be distributing it to the workers or some vile thing.

1) Thanks for (seemingly reluctantly) accepting the validity of my point(s).

2) I agree that there may be preference to punish Hairy into delayed gratification for a variety of reasons, including possibly allowing time to possibly propagandize him into at least spending such winnings on objectively agreeable purposes, such as hookers, lambos and blow... which are amongst the least controversial ways to spend BTC winnings.  Shocked

I’ll settle for ski lodges, Taycans and Burgundy...



As for the proletariat, let them drink White Claw
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November 16, 2019, 01:09:31 AM

Roundup = Glyphosate?

I don't know what the hell you are talking about but... maybe you can be of some use here.

Do you know what I could use to kill a palm tree that is too close (almost touching already) to my perimeter wall and I need to kill it before the trunk breaks it? I have thought about drilling some holes in the trunk and filling it either with hydrocloridic acid or glyphosate. Would that be enough? Anything else more appropriate?





A chainsaw and a shovel
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November 16, 2019, 01:11:36 AM

Well, I'm not a woman so I wouldn't attempt to poison the tree in it's sleep.  Like the famous German philosopher - Adolph Hitler - I would launch a swift, Blitzkrieg attack and tackle the tree with brute force.
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November 16, 2019, 01:11:48 AM

Roundup = Glyphosate?

I don't know what the hell you are talking about but... maybe you can be of some use here.

Do you know what I could use to kill a palm tree that is too close (almost touching already) to my perimeter wall and I need to kill it before the trunk breaks it? I have thought about drilling some holes in the trunk and filling it either with hydrocloridic acid or glyphosate. Would that be enough? Anything else more appropriate?





A chainsaw and a shovel

I can't cut it without risking it damage the wall during the fall nor am willing to pay the expensive bill for outsourcing the procedure. I just need it to die/dry and stop growing.

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November 16, 2019, 01:19:42 AM

Do this:

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November 16, 2019, 01:26:12 AM

Roundup = Glyphosate?
...some holes in the trunk and filling it either with hydrocloridic acid or glyphosate. Would that be enough? Anything else more appropriate?

Yes.

Either will do the trick. Glyphosate will likely give you cancer if you rub it all over yourself.

Great. Will try next week then, I have been postponing that shit for too long already.

Oh, and I would never dare to rub glyphosate all over myself! I restrict my balls treatment just to an occasional alcohol rubbing! I will consider the hydrocloridic acid alternative if Bitcoin keeps dropping though Tongue
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November 16, 2019, 01:33:35 AM

@r0ach

I appreciate you are now trying to be helpful. I know how to cut a tree and try to control the fall, even if I am not much experienced. In fact I brought a more experienced friend that told me that considering the position and angle of it it would be very hard (not impossible) to control the fall without risking the wall. He said it should be first be cut in "slices" starting from the top, which requires a "pro" or an elevator.

The problem is that it was let to grow too close to the wall for years until it is too late for an easy cut. Thus my intention to just kill it and stop the trunk to keep growing in diameter.
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November 16, 2019, 01:39:04 AM

^ Talking about Gox.... any news on when they will distribute the coins/fiat? I would like to put that fiat to good use buying some more corn before the halving comes. Any chance?

Also it would be terrible if they keep delaying the distribution and decide to give out the coins at a much higher price. The sooner the better for everyone.

Maybe another two years.


https://www.coindesk.com/coinlabs-mt-gox-claim-may-hold-up-payouts-for-another-2-years

Quote
The head of the largest organized creditor group representing the former users of failed bitcoin exchange Mt. Gox is stepping down amid what he described as a protracted legal quagmire that could take years to resolve completely.

Andy Pag, the founder and coordinator of Mt. Gox Legal, told CoinDesk in an exclusive interview this week that he now believes ongoing legal issues – in particular, a single massive claim by startup incubator and former Mt. Gox partner Coinlab – may hold up the crypto exchange’s civil rehabilitation process for up to two more years.


This thread seems to be the best to get updates from.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=179586.6900
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November 16, 2019, 01:47:10 AM

All on schedule, nothing to see here. 


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