Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JayJuanGee]

Anybody like to share their thoughts on the current market, price action?

It looks weak AF to me. I mean, I think everything is OK & we should rally in Q4 but we really need to start moving up soon. Part of me is fucking concerned if I’m honest.

In the summer of 2016 it pumped to $800, then crashed to below $600 in September. By December/January it had pumped to over $1000.

September seems to be a crap month for the price.

I personally don't think the price is going to do crapola until January 1st or after.

But I can't say stuff like that here, because:

1. JJG and others will jump on me and call me a bear

2. I'm not a S2F cultist like most of the crypto twitterverse

3. I'm open and happy to being wrong. I hodl regardless of what the price does.

Since when was I any kind of person expecting king daddy to be on any kind of strict schedule...   I am surprised to hear that, especially when I have sometimes jumped on the cases of other WO members who are stating that king daddy has to do x by y date, and I especially become bothered when the assertions are too strict in terms of saying what price performance "has to happen" by certain dates... I tend to be a range kind of a person, and also filled with a decent amount of probabilities rather than certainties.

I also hate to get my expectations up too high, and instead I prefer to proclaim that various exponential periods are kind of surprises, even though many of us could see them coming in advance with decently high levels of confidence (agin not guaranteed, for sure).

In regards to time, I have also suggested that there could be delayed action and that would not necessarily break stock to flow or the four-year fractal or exponential s-curve adoption based on Metcalfe principles and network effects... and I have even suggested that our peak for this cycle could end up playing out as late as 3rd quarter 2022.. and furthermore, cycles could end up breaking, even though I tend to NOT be a fan of prematurely assuming that our three most dominant BTC price prediction models are broken.

I don't exactly agree with any kind of sentiment that there has to be a delay in UPpity (not that you are even saying that Torque), but surely a delay is within reason especially if beartards are able to keep the BTC price down lower and longer than expected, then they are able to shake more weak hands from those kinds of situations.  Beartards surely love to keep the BTC price down for as long as they can and for as low as they can, but part of the problem is that they end up running out of actual abilities to accomplish what they would like to accomplish. For sure, I am not going to know when their inabilities to keep king daddy down is going to become somewhat undeniable, exactly.

In other words, what else is newses?

[sirazimuth]

                           

[Cryptotourist]

Exactly!!!!!

Unknown error. Reboot sequence initiated.

But I can't say stuff like that here, because:

Please don’t do that. We need critical thinkers more than anything at this time. Even if all hell breaks loose.

Grr. Just got over a cold a couple of weeks ago and now have another. This after several years of sickeningly good health. Hopefully my immune system is still on red alert and I'll be over it quickly. At least it seems to not be C19 symptoms.

Cheer up. You’re getting the new updates.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Torque]

But I can't say stuff like that here, because:

Please don’t do that. We need critical thinkers more than anything at this time. Even if all hell breaks loose.

I've lived through the past bull runs of 2013 and 2017, and TBH, even having the experience of 2013 behind me, the bull run of 2017 still disappointed me. Because at that time, I believed way to hard that "this time is different".

But it wasn't any different. In both 2013 and 2017 cases there was a blow off top, and a bounce to a lower level top, and then finally months later, a high-volume capitulation.

So what do I see when I look at the current 2021 chart? A blow off top, and a bounce that we are currently in, that looks like a lower top forming. I still don't see a high-volume capitulation yet.

Will a capitulation happen this time, or will we just blow past that? I don't really know, I can't say. But something inside tells me it's possible that this time is no different than any of the others. This market just loves to make "fools of the bulls" almost every fkn time.

Just my 2c. I will hodl no matter what happens.

[fr4nkthetank]

All usa people, have fun with your 1099s and whatever form number exists, automatic reporting for aggregate transactions over 600$ to the IRS hahahahahahahahahaahahahahahaaha
literally every person in the USA that has a bank account has that.

Enter the real and only stablecoin, the stablecoin to rule them all, the central bank digital dollar.  Where you KNOW its worth 1$=1$, because of course, they create it themselves obviously.  blah blah blah 10-20 years in the future, where no kid will have touched an actual physical dollar bill or know what it is (like cheques currently) and everything will be data-mined for profit and surveillance, where will you hide off the books purchases of exotic llamas or live badgers among other things ?

Where will we be then ?  When at the whim of a politician or more likely a dystopianly rich person, your accounts and practically your life can be terminated, erased, denied ?  Is that far fetched ?  Nope.

#buy bitcoin

[fr4nkthetank]

So what do I see when I look at the current 2021 cart? A blow off top, and a bounce that we are currently in, that looks like a lower top forming. I still don't see a high-volume capitulation.
Will a capitulation happen this time, or will we just blow past that? I don't really know, I can't say. But something inside tells me it's possible that this time is no different than any of the others.

I dont like the chart either, but consider this : It has been severely distorted by all the elon musk buying thing after what I thought was a good first top, when we hit 40-45k.  I just dont feel we hit that sweet parabolic increase in price yet.  something feels off

[philipma1957]

                           

nice work

[Torque]

All usa people, have fun with your 1099s and whatever form number exists, automatic reporting for aggregate transactions over 600$ to the IRS hahahahahahahahahaahahahahahaaha
literally every person in the USA that has a bank account has that.

I don't think the $600 thing will stick. But I do know that the govt is desperate for money to pay for all the stimmies and unemployment $$$, and so the IRS has been combing through past tax receipts, turning over every rock, sniffing for more money.

Don't ask me how I know. 

[Cryptotourist]

Just my 2c.

Thanks.

I will hodl no matter what happens.

We have to. There is no other rational option.

something feels off

If something feels off, it’s the hashrate. That, and maybe JJG for a while.

[cAPSLOCK]

MemPool Report: Fees have been higher than 1sat to get into a block for over two hours now - still trying to checkpoint a Lightning channel open with LOOP.

Looks to be backed up for at least another hour at 3sat to get in as minimum fee.

I'm in no hurry, but just taking more note of the mempool since I got back into Lightning - so as to minimize on-chain costs - and hasn't been this backed up since I started taking notice of such things, since you assholes dragged me into your Lightning channel party thingy.

Not sure how to interpret this. I know there has been some historical speculation about mempool activity/BTC Price, and I guess I'm just passively noting that speculated correlation.

eg: I can't seem to recognize a reason for the min fee being over 1sat, for as long as it has, vs price activity.

I guess the upside to becoming more involved with running the node, is I'll have a much better sense of the mempool/fee-state as a result of desiring to pay bare minimum on channel opens, which may help give me further insight into any possible price movements.

Haven't paid attention to the mempool/price to the extent that I have lately, and will be curious to see what knowledge I glean. I don't have any interest in going backwards through history to do the research sorta thing...

</brainfart>

The mempool spent some time crowded during the peak this year, but otherwise we have seen it clear a LOT.  For me 1s/b fees have me in a block within a fairly reasonable time.  I usually use my local copy of mempol.space to estimate where I am at if I want to clear a block in time.

Recently I made a payment using coinpayments.net.

THEY ARE A SCAM.  MAKE SURE TO PAY A HIGH ENOUGH FEE TO MAKE IT UNDER THEIR TIMER as they charge 40k sats to "refund" you.

Fuckers.  They are awful.

[BobLawblaw]

Part of me is fucking concerned if I’m honest.

My gut is telling me S2F falls apart soon. In shambles and an afterthought by March 2022.

Hope I'm wrong, but I think we should expect a slower rise than some are anticipating.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[gallianooo]

But I can't say stuff like that here, because:

Please don’t do that. We need critical thinkers more than anything at this time. Even if all hell breaks loose.

I've lived through the past bull runs of 2013 and 2017, and TBH, even having the experience of 2013 behind me, the bull run of 2017 still disappointed me. Because at that time, I believed way to hard that "this time is different".

But it wasn't any different. In both 2013 and 2017 cases there was a blow off top, and a bounce to a lower level top, and then finally months later, a high-volume capitulation.

So what do I see when I look at the current 2021 chart? A blow off top, and a bounce that we are currently in, that looks like a lower top forming. I still don't see a high-volume capitulation yet.

Will a capitulation happen this time, or will we just blow past that? I don't really know, I can't say. But something inside tells me it's possible that this time is no different than any of the others. This market just loves to make "fools of the bulls" almost every fkn time.

Just my 2c. I will hodl no matter what happens.

So to resume, you see on the chart that we already got the top of this cycle at 64xxx$ ? It seems very conservative for a experienced hodler like you.

But which type of capitulation are you looking for (like on the previous cycles) ? With a "small" multiple x3 between 2017 ATH and 2021 ATH... I have some doubts that we can go much much lower.. and bear for a long period either..
My 2cts too.

[sirazimuth]

nice work

Thanx Phil.
Created on Mastercam 2018 .
If you (or any wo bro) want a blown up jpeg of your medallion with any desired edits (colors, font, etc) just ask here and I will post it.
Really easy to make now with this template on file. Keeps me amused in my old age while the Mazak is in CNC milling cycle.

[cAPSLOCK]

                           

OK!  That's really cool!

[cAPSLOCK]

All usa people, have fun with your 1099s and whatever form number exists, automatic reporting for aggregate transactions over 600$ to the IRS hahahahahahahahahaahahahahahaaha
literally every person in the USA that has a bank account has that.

I don't think the $600 thing will stick. But I do know that the govt is desperate for money to pay for all the stimmies and unemployment $$$, and so the IRS has been combing through past tax receipts, turning over every rock, sniffing for more money.

Don't ask me how I know. 

This is so loony.  They have proven they can print exactly as much as they need.  Why do they also need to take it away from (some of) us?

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JayJuanGee]

This market just loves to make "fools of the bulls" almost every fkn time.

Just my 2c. I will hodl no matter what happens.

I don't see how the BTC market could be making any kind of fool out of you in the past or even in the future (as far as we can attempt to predict it - to the best of our abilities) - especially if you are and have been holding historically.

Yeah, to the extent that any of us tries to make some kind of solid short-term prognostication, then the bitcoin market may well hand our asses to us, and maybe that is what you are saying?...

Ultimately any kind of bull who has errored anywhere in the 50% plus territory of his bitcoin has made bank for sure, and of course, those who have held higher amounts of their bitcoin have done better.  So difficult to know how any of us mostly HODLers have been shown as foolish - especially the longer that we have been in and attempted to establish a position - even through extensive correction periods.. in the long run, we have not ONLY been shown to be right (kind of vindicated), we have been put into much better financial and psychological positions.

I will admit that I have run across a decent number of status quo rich folks who seem to believe that everything is going to just work itself out with their financial investments, including their properties and equities, and they do not even seem to be too worried about prices going up.. at least in their desires to defend the level of their richie status; however, even on probing I have some difficulties understanding how they can even feel secure with their traditional investments without some kind of hedge.. and they seem to believe that properties and just having a lot of money is enough of a hedge.. so things have worked out the past 10-20 years, so seems pretty much that it is going to continue to work out.. especially if they might only have another 10-20 years to live and maybe 35 years if they are extremely lucky... but in any event they feel that they have enough financial/psychological preparations for any scenario... and they do not need bitcoin as a hedge... as if I am trying to sell them bitcoin even though I am strongly suggesting to consider some hedging with bitcoin... but no, no, no.... and so there can sometimes be what seems to be false senses of security in traditional financial circles.. at least some of the seemingly stubborn-ass guys that I have run across.. in my real life social circles.

Seems to me that we bitcoin holders have a lot to be thankful for in terms of our bet having had paid off, we are not losing our conviction, so our bet is still likely to continue to pay off, even if some aspects of the upside might have come down to ONLY 1,000x more rather than 10,000x or some other ridiculous amounts....  but I surely am not feeling either fooled or fucked by either my past bitcoin involvement or where I anticipate king daddy to be going in the coming years, whether 4-10 years or even longer periods, if I happen to still be alive and able to enjoy where it has come, besides just being able to mutter I told you so through my talking box.

If something feels off, it’s the hashrate. That, and maybe JJG for a while.

Hashrate looks pretty damned good to me.

Bitcoin is doing its thing in regard to ongoing difficulty adjustments and the creation of incentives that seems quite amazing in the whole scheme of things.

If there is something specific that bothers you, then please let us know, rather than being mysterious about what appears to be fantastical, rather than real, attempts at FUD spreading assertions.

Part of me is fucking concerned if I’m honest.

My gut is telling me S2F falls apart soon. In shambles and an afterthought by March 2022.

Hope I'm wrong, but I think we should expect a slower rise than some are anticipating.

You are pretty damned likely to be wrong.. even with your vague ass assertion..  so you can come whine your little drama queen here if you like, or put your tail between your legs... which is likely going to be the case.  #nohomo

[marcus_of_augustus]

Anybody like to share their thoughts on the current market, price action?

It looks weak AF to me. I mean, I think everything is OK & we should rally in Q4 but we really need to start moving up soon. Part of me is fucking concerned if I’m honest.

... intermediate bottom signal confirmed, face-melting rally can begin now.

Hint: check out the WALLS on Bitstamp, bitfinex and coinbase, they may all be faked but I don't think so.