Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[molecular]

It is always shocking to see how easy the price can be manipulated. Without any volume the price went up 50$ in minutes. As the price was at 840$ somebody bought 13 coins for 895$ each and bang there we are now at 884$...

That why I - incorrectly - call it penny stock. A few big players can totally control this with a penny.

Imagine when governments get in. They can easily melk the folks with manipulating the prices. I´m really not sure if Bitcoin is really the future...

Ok they do the same with FIAT and Gold but everybody was saying BTC cant ever get controlled by banks and governments. I dont think so...

I do think so. FIAT is controlled directly by the CBs and gold by a fake paper market they can short-sell to their pleasure in and give people fiat instead of gold... an absolute joke. Something like this being established is quite unlikely in XBT, because it's easy to secure and transact in itself, so there is really not a good reason to buy paper-XBT instead of the real thing. Governments directly manipulating gox/btcchina/... is out of the question in my mind. There's only so many coins and they need to actually have them (or the cooperation of gox to be able to sell coins they don't have).

[1714628610]

1714628610

[1714628610]

1714628610

[1714628610]

1714628610

[QuestionAuthority]

"Everyone will serve me when I own all the Bitcoins." ~ Niccolo Machiavelli

[molecular]

Oh and also: even an all-knowing god might not be able to predict the future. If he could, why would he even run the world. Makes no sense.

Now that's worth a whole new thread.

But I will simply say no. You're thinking in human terms. I might argue an all-knowing god would not be subjected to the Time dimension.

Furthermore, if the string theory "confirmation" that propped up last week turns out to be valid, we could eventually in a very remote and distant future all be looking into a single-dimensional universe for our TA (where strings are vibrating and things are actually happening and then being "echoed" in a holographic manner to our 10-dimensional universe, which would be just a projection of said one-dimensional universe).

But yeah, best leave it there......

ok.

[mb300sd]

Oh and also: even an all-knowing god might not be able to predict the future. If he could, why would he even run the world. Makes no sense.

Now that's worth a whole new thread.

But I will simply say no. You're thinking in human terms. I might argue an all-knowing god would not be subjected to the Time dimension.

Furthermore, if the string theory "confirmation" that propped up last week turns out to be valid, we could eventually in a very remote and distant future all be looking into a single-dimensional universe for our TA (where strings are vibrating and things are actually happening and then being "echoed" in a holographic manner to our 10-dimensional universe, which would be just a projection of said one-dimensional universe).

But yeah, best leave it there......

I'm sure if we ever advanced that far, there would be no need for an economy.. We'd just have matter converters that took in garbage and spit out whatever we can imagine.

[molecular]

all i'm saying is TA is BS

only an all knowing god can predict the future.

TA works to an extent because people think it works and act accordingly.

Oh and also: even an all-knowing god might not be able to predict the future. If he could, why would he even run the world. Makes no sense.

there is no such thing as an all knowing god
our god is the universe
he is completely oblivious of our existence because in his eyes our universe is a small sub atomic particle in his body.

now you know the secret.


 

I can easily agree with that view.

[Voodah]

Oh and also: even an all-knowing god might not be able to predict the future. If he could, why would he even run the world. Makes no sense.

Now that's worth a whole new thread.

But I will simply say no. You're thinking in human terms. I might argue an all-knowing god would not be subjected to the Time dimension.

Furthermore, if the string theory "confirmation" that propped up last week turns out to be valid, we could eventually in a very remote and distant future all be looking into a single-dimensional universe for our TA (where strings are vibrating and things are actually happening and then being "echoed" in a holographic manner to our 10-dimensional universe, which would be just a projection of said one-dimensional universe).

But yeah, best leave it there......

I'm sure if we ever advanced that far, there would be no need for an economy.. We'd just have matter converters that took in garbage and spit out whatever we can imagine.

So... no StringCoin ?

[molecular]

Oh and also: even an all-knowing god might not be able to predict the future. If he could, why would he even run the world. Makes no sense.

Now that's worth a whole new thread.

But I will simply say no. You're thinking in human terms. I might argue an all-knowing god would not be subjected to the Time dimension.

Furthermore, if the string theory "confirmation" that propped up last week turns out to be valid, we could eventually in a very remote and distant future all be looking into a single-dimensional universe for our TA (where strings are vibrating and things are actually happening and then being "echoed" in a holographic manner to our 10-dimensional universe, which would be just a projection of said one-dimensional universe).

But yeah, best leave it there......

I'm sure if we ever advanced that far, there would be no need for an economy.. We'd just have matter converters that took in garbage and spit out whatever we can imagine.

Might be best to leave the whole matter thing behind us at some point anyway.

[JorgeStolfi]

My interpretation of those charts:

1. The people who believe that a bitcoin will be worth a zillion in a few years are not in those charts.  They are holding all the bitcoins they have, and whenever they can get or borrow any more money, they immediately buy bitcoins at the current ask price.  Since we do not see much of the latter happening, it means that the believers that remain have largely run out of money.

2. The people who have posted offers to sell (the red "ask" mountain at right) are

   2a. people who bought bitcoins at 900-1200 USD.  They are waiting for the price to return to the same level, so that they can get out without losing money.  Many will probably hold their offers at those levels even if the  price falls off the bottom, because they would ratehr keep hoping for the impossible rather than admit their mistake.  Only very reluctantly they will lower their ask price and accept a loss.   On the other hand, if the price ever returns to the 900-1200 range, the smarter ones will sell out and quit.

   2b. miners and other people people who bought coins at much lower price, and bet that the price still may get up to the 900-1000 range.  They are likely to profit even if they sell well below that, but will try for that level only for greed.  They are likely to lower or raise their ask price as the price moves, and will sell as  the chances of higher prices seem more remote.

3. Most of the people who have posted offers to buy below the current price (the green "bid" mountain at left) do not believe that the price will get much higher than that.  They  are assuming that if the current price is (say) 900 USD, then it will probably remain in the 850-950 range for a while.   So they offer to buy at (say) 850 and wait for the occasional customer who "must" sell a bunch of bitcoins at any price.   Then they immediately post an offer to sell those same bitcoins at (say) 900-950, and wait for the random guy who "must" buy bitcoins at any price.  By repeating this move they could make 5% profit on their capital, several times a week.   However, this strategy only works if they keep their offers to sell at the front of the "ask" queue.  So they will watch the market carefully, and if they see a large number of sellers lowering their ask prices to (say) the 850-950 range, they will immediately lower their bids do buy to 750-850 range.  

Thus:

  A. The mountain of sell offers asking 900-1200 USD cannot be taken as an indication that the market has faith in bitcoin;

  B. The mountain of buy offers which is always 50-100 USD below the current price is not a buffer against a massive drop in ask prices, because it will recede with it.

Does this make sense?

[I_bitcoin]

10 lines of fully debugged code a day!    100 lines is like 10 days of effort for great code .

[Nemo1024]

Not sure that picture holds. As a professional coder I get paid about $97000 per year, converted from NOK, by a large multinational company. Then comes about 40% income tax, which leaves me with $58200 per year or $4850 per month or $2421 per day or $32 per hour or BTC0.0377 per line, given the "think for an hour, write one line" mantra.

In other words 26.5 lines per BTC

How is a 40% tax of 97000 equal to 38800. Wouldn't that be a 60% tax?

Ellers er det jo en fin lønn, det

Oops, used the tax amount, and not the "clean" salary in the calculations. Fixed the quote above.

Vel, klager ikke, selv om skatten kunne jo vært lavere

[justusranvier]

There's only so many coins and they need to actually have them (or the cooperation of gox to be able to sell coins they don't have).

If all the major exchanges join a voting pool there's no way for them to sell coins they don't have without being immediately detected.

[adamstgBit]

all i'm saying is TA is BS

only an all knowing god can predict the future.

TA works to an extent because people think it works and act accordingly.

Oh and also: even an all-knowing god might not be able to predict the future. If he could, why would he even run the world. Makes no sense.

there is no such thing as an all knowing god
our god is the universe
he is completely oblivious of our existence because in his eyes our universe is a small sub atomic particle in his body.

now you know the secret.


 

I can easily agree with that view.

Believing the existential aspect of existence is not hard, because its the truth!


I should start a religion
we all gather together on sundays, I say a tone of existentialist BS, and then collect bitcoin donations  

[wachtwoord]

Oh and also: even an all-knowing god might not be able to predict the future. If he could, why would he even run the world. Makes no sense.

Now that's worth a whole new thread.

No it's not. If he's all-knowing this would include knowledge about the future. So the above statement is logically internally inconsistent.

□

[Nemo1024]

all i'm saying is TA is BS

only an all knowing god can predict the future.

TA works to an extent because people think it works and act accordingly.

Oh and also: even an all-knowing god might not be able to predict the future. If he could, why would he even run the world. Makes no sense.

there is no such thing as an all knowing god
our god is the universe
he is completely oblivious of our existence because in his eyes our universe is a small sub atomic particle in his body.

now you know the secret.


 

I can easily agree with that view.

Believing the existential aspect of existence is not hard, because its the truth!


I should start a religion
we all gather together on sundays, I say a tone of existentialist BS, and then collect bitcoin donations  

Isn't that how absolutely all churches, religions and sects operate?

[adamstgBit]

ok i have shit to do, wasted to much of my life on this thread.

[Nemo1024]

Something tells me I should have bought at 815 this morning...

[fluidjax]

My interpretation of those charts:

1. The people who believe that a bitcoin will be worth a zillion in a few years are not in those charts.  They are holding all the bitcoins they have, and whenever they can get or borrow any more money, they immediately buy bitcoins at the current ask price.  Since we do not see much of the latter happening, it means that the believers that remain have largely run out of money.

2. The people who have posted offers to sell (the red "ask" mountain at right) are

   2a. people who bought bitcoins at 900-1200 USD.  They are waiting for the price to return to the same level, so that they can get out without losing money.  Many will probably hold their offers at those levels even if the  price falls off the bottom, because they would ratehr keep hoping for the impossible rather than admit their mistake.  Only very reluctantly they will lower their ask price and accept a loss.   On the other hand, if the price ever returns to the 900-1200 range, the smarter ones will sell out and quit.

   2b. miners and other people people who bought coins at much lower price, and bet that the price still may get up to the 900-1000 range.  They are likely to profit even if they sell well below that, but will try for that level only for greed.  They are likely to lower or raise their ask price as the price moves, and will sell as  the chances of higher prices seem more remote.

3. Most of the people who have posted offers to buy below the current price (the green "bid" mountain at left) do not believe that the price will get much higher than that.  They  are assuming that if the current price is (say) 900 USD, then it will probably remain in the 850-950 range for a while.   So they offer to buy at (say) 850 and wait for the occasional customer who "must" sell a bunch of bitcoins at any price.   Then they immediately post an offer to sell those same bitcoins at (say) 900-950, and wait for the random guy who "must" buy bitcoins at any price.  By repeating this move they could make 5% profit on their capital, several times a week.   However, this strategy only works if they keep their offers to sell at the front of the "ask" queue.  So they will watch the market carefully, and if they see a large number of sellers lowering their ask prices to (say) the 850-950 range, they will immediately lower their bids do buy to 750-850 range.  

Thus:

  A. The mountain of sell offers asking 900-1200 USD cannot be taken as an indication that the market has faith in bitcoin;

  B. The mountain of buy offers which is always 50-100 USD below the current price is not a buffer against a massive drop in ask prices, because it will recede with it.

Does this make sense?

I like to think of trading as an onion.
You think you understand something and then along comes something new and you realise you were missing a whole load of stuff and were being played.
You keep peeling away layers of the onion learning more and more... it all looks so simple at first glance, but there is a whole world of stuff going on beneath the surface.
The motivations for walls are a good starting point for further investigation....

[magicmexican]

I can't believe this. Where is the bear market??!!  Is it coming on Monday?

Its coming right after HalfLife episode 3

[Kj1]

Something tells me I should have bought at 815 this morning...

my oversimplified analysis:
everybody expected a drop, so they were ready to buy in the dip.
ran out of patience, got trigger happy, rising the price.

basically the price does often the opposite of what people expect, something you have expressed alot here  

The more "to the moon" yells here the more chance of a price drop
and we're waiting for a drop means it won't come when expected.

[wachtwoord]

Something tells me I should have bought at 815 this morning...

Is it the fact that the price is >815 right now?