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Question: When will we see a new ATH?
2023 - 38 (25.5%)
2024 - 58 (38.9%)
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2027 - 2 (1.3%)
After 2027 - 3 (2%)
Never - 5 (3.4%)
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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26002711 times)
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October 07, 2022, 03:52:48 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

looks like @elwar had a bad day

Quote
$1.5 Million Floating Home Prototype Sinks Into The Water Just As It’s Unveiled.

Three floors, a landing pad for drones, a bunch of electronics - all this is in the houseboat. At first, everyone admired the unique idea, but as soon as the house left the pier, it immediately bent over and went to the bottom.

The SeaPod, builty by Panama-based technology company Ocean Builders, is meant to be a self-sustaining, eco-restorative home that floats above the waves.

source:
https://www.reddit.com/r/ThatLookedExpensive/comments/xwxlk8/15_million_floating_home_prototype_sinks_into_the/

Looks to me like it probably bottomed out and tipped as it needs to sink a bit as its weighed down to keep its stability.

Not designed to balance on its bottom.

i saw a reddit comment that said the pod has an active ballast system or something with pumps and they continually balance the system to keep it level. apparently one pump failed somehow.



Hmm, if true not building redundancy into a critical system like that is poor engineering on its surface.

I read the comments on reddit OMG they're hilarious, particularly this one: “Good morning, I’d like to cancel my pre order please”.

Yeah, making the whole thing's buoyancy depend on electric pumps is a bad idea. I wouldn't dare to spend some time in an ocean/sea in that thing not even talking about living there... making the pumps not redundant is even worse. They really need some plan b like those air filled pontons or something else to keep it afloat if the pump gets broken or they run out of electricity.. Cool
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October 07, 2022, 03:55:50 PM
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I guess there was another thread for the lightning network. I can't find it anymore.
Here, https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5348270
An update about this has also been posted.
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October 07, 2022, 04:04:10 PM

I am so excited for the next bull run and I am checking price every hour waiting for the day when I become a bitcoin millionaire.
I called $22k, we went $17k. I am now calling $180k for next peak, I hope Bitcoin CEO provides me with much more than that.
Also If I die before that day, let my family know I was part of this awesome journey. Smiley



Share ur wallets info with me, i will let your family know when btc hit 180k$ hahahahaha
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October 07, 2022, 04:04:51 PM


Explanation
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October 07, 2022, 04:18:44 PM

I am so excited for the next bull run and I am checking price every hour waiting for the day when I become a bitcoin millionaire.
I called $22k, we went $17k. I am now calling $180k for next peak, I hope Bitcoin CEO provides me with much more than that.
Also If I die before that day, let my family know I was part of this awesome journey. Smiley

Waiting is a tedious job, but even more boring if you have nothing to wait for.
I hope what you are waiting for can give good results, at least it is a good boredom for you.
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October 07, 2022, 04:39:16 PM

the morning wall report


think the jobs market is getting put on the back burner today


i dont like hearing it but it needs to be said...and im glad he has the balls to do so


https://apnews.com/article/biden-nuclear-risk-1d0f1e40cff3a92c662c57f274ce0e25
Quote
NEW YORK (AP) — President Joe Biden is declaring that the risk of nuclear “Armageddon” is at the highest level since the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis, as Russian officials speak of using tactical nuclear weapons after suffering massive setbacks in the eight-month invasion of Ukraine.


its goes further and says...

Quote
Still, nothing has changed in U.S. intelligence assessments that in recent weeks have shown no evidence that Putin has imminent plans to deploy nuclear weapons, according to U.S. officials on Friday.


whilst i believe the possibility is remote this announcement will likely have some impact on markets today


----------


March 13, 2023 is when I am projecting this cycle should be complete
IMO bitcoin is worth substantially more than its current pricing
the market says otherwise
I think we are in-between capitulation and despair....and perhaps there has not been enough despair yet
unsure
kinda been waiting for a rug pull in the back of my mind honestly

dyor

D

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October 07, 2022, 05:00:38 PM
Merited by LFC_Bitcoin (10), Biodom (2), vapourminer (1), Hueristic (1), suchmoon (1), JayJuanGee (1), jojo69 (1), HI-TEC99 (1), fr4nkthetank (1), ivomm (1), rat03gopoh (1)

I can explain the whole Celcius business model in less than 5 minutes to anyone that doesnt know anything about crypto. ...(apt explanation)...
All the insiders sold and made bank

A couple years back I had a job writing for one of the top 3 crypto news websites.

One day my asshole editor tells me I'm doing an interview with Alex Mashinsky (Celsius CEO) for a story, gear up.

The subject of the story is to be about how an "independent research firm" puts Celsius' valuation 3x higher than its previous assessment.

I do a bit of background research and find out said research firm is heavily invested in Celsius.

Additional research into Maskinsky's claims about being the inventor of this and that technology (all bogus) lead me to suspect he's a sociopath douche.

I bring this up to my editor and tell him I don't feel comfortable doing the interview or writing the story. He says write it or you're fired.

Two days later I'm fired.

Fast-forward two years: the editor has been a heavy supporter of Mashinsky and customer of Celsius. He lost everything he put in there.


When all the shit went down earlier this year I was tempted to write him a "ha-ha-told-you-so"-type email or expose him publicly, but I never did. I reckon its ultimately not necessary, but can't help but wonder if he remembers me.
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October 07, 2022, 05:01:18 PM


Explanation
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October 07, 2022, 05:07:07 PM

Bitcoin doesn’t care about your country, religion, race, or creed.

Bitcoin is for everyone.

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October 07, 2022, 05:22:17 PM



Bitcoin is moving in sideways. Its a danger sign that a big move is coming soon. It might be a bullish move or a bearish move.
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October 07, 2022, 05:28:05 PM
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4lp0cM3hmBs
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October 07, 2022, 06:02:03 PM
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October 07, 2022, 06:02:51 PM
Last edit: October 07, 2022, 06:26:27 PM by JayJuanGee
Merited by vapourminer (1), Hueristic (1), Greyhats (1)

I guess there was another thread for the lightning network. I can't find it anymore.

Here's one of the main lightning network threads by Rath_



I guess there was another thread for the lightning network. I can't find it anymore.
Here, https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5348270
An update about this has also been posted.

Funny.  I did not know about the quoted lighting network thread, and I thought that I knew about all of the italian stallion's threads...

hahahahahaha


Hey all just wanted give everyone an update on my DCA for 2022. I have been flip flopping between two strategies through the year:

DCA - buy btc on fixed date and frequency
Ladder + DCA - ladder order down 5-10% from DCA buy price. Using lump for ladder down or sometimes if the dca amount was good peeling off for ladder orders.

It is nice to see when other members attempt to show some of the details regarding what they have been doing, and for sure, it can be challenging to try to both establish a somewhat comprehensive strategy and then to try to stick with such strategy - and maybe even tweaking along the way if goals are not being met.. or circumstances change.

I see your forum registration date is in May 2021, yet are you saying that you did not start with your current strategy until 2022?  I am not saying that it is a bad thing to start from 2022 - especially after we have seen a mostly downward BTC price slope in 2022 that really got going in May 2022 and thereafter - even though prior to May 2022 - we could not have necessarily known that the BTC price was going to go lower than the $40ks and those various supra $40k prices that we were having prior to May 2022.

I think I understand what you mean buy ladders from your DCA price, which would be merely making additional BTC buys on if the BTC price drops and then your DCA buys would begin somewhere in the 5% to 10% area. and then have further increments of buys on the way down (if the BTC price goes down).  I would suggest that even if you have a first buying threshold that is 5% or even 10% down from the current price, you need not have 5% to 10% increments between the subsequent ladder down prices.  But of course, you can do what you want in terms of your own comfort regarding how much of a spread you want in terms of the first buy threshold and then in terms of how much of a percentage increment you want between your buy on the dip orders.  Sometimes you can play around with the sizes and the spreads of each of these buy orders in order to account for the various individual factors in your life that include but not limited to your personal cashflow matters.

Regarding your peeling off statement, I gather that would be a kind of small amount of selling of BTC in order to allow for your buys on the dips to become larger?  I have never really developed my own straight thinking about the selling on the way up practices, especially for newbie BTC accumulators.  Frequently, I have recommended against any amount of BTC selling until such newbie BTC accumulator has reached a relatively high level of BTC accumulation, and then the shaving off would be small and apportioned based on ONLY a small percentage of how much BTC had been accumulated - therefore, as the BTC stash grows, then the amount of self-authorized sales levels would go up based on the BTC stash growing.  In other words, for the BTC accumulating newbie, if the BTC stash is not growing (and ends up shrinking),. then the amount of BTC authorized for selling needs to be strictly monitored in order to NOT go very high with those BTC selling amounts.   Logically the strictness of the amounts of BTC that can be sold would reduce as the BTC stash is getting larger and under the assumption that the BTC holder has accumulated decently large amounts of BTC that bring him/her to fuck you status or in fuck you status or even clearly having fuck you status within grasps.. (and surely how you define fuck you status can change your calculations, too.. that's another story, right?)

I met my 2022 goal just shy of 3 months early,  and was able to capture close to the ATL. Happy with the avg price.

It seems that when we have decently solid and conservative plans, then there are greater likelihoods to meet or to exceed the meeting of the goals within the plans.  A lot of people have difficulties sticking with their plans, so have to congratulate you about that.. and surely it is a bonus if you reach and exceed your goals.

One thing about being in BTC accumulation mode, you might sometimes feel stressful about the extent to which you are being reasonable in your goals and/or your strategies to reach the goals, but it can sometimes be more measurable than creating maintenance goals.. not that I would necessarily want to go back to being in my primarily BTC accumulation stages... I appreciate comforts of being in more of a maintenance stage - even though it seems that I have accumulated more bitcoin than I thought that I would have also.. I am not exactly sure about the number.. but it seems that I have more BTC than I had expected to have at this time, and less cash than I had expected.. not really suffering in any significantly material way though... except maybe on the margins.. if anyone might infer what that might mean... hahahahaaha

With having some data now I have been preparing for next uppity and next downity. I feel even with my conservative uppity numbers, and an assumption of 80% of the next downity, there is still a great return comparing to current average price I have with no need to sell. I can comfortably continue DCA even with market going up. If uppity goes to medium conservative price it’s a bonanza, and likewise for not conservative(which may be the next next cycle conservative)

It's really great that you have projected out a variety of possible scenarios.  Personally, I hate to devolve into too much presumptiveness in regards to how much the BTC price might go up, so in that regard, I do tend to maintain conservative projections in terms of my own finances which has tended to result in any upwards BTC price moves ending up playing out higher than I had planned for and a kind of icing on the cake.

It sounds realistic if you are projecting that you would be DCAing out at least one more cycle... I have witnessed that even if guys start out with a decent amount of capital to invest in BTC, it is usually going to take more than one cycle to really get some kind of decently solid BTC accumulation into place, and for sure, anyone who might have either any kind of tighter budget or merely not as much cashflow that they can dedicate to bitcoin investments, then it can still take a decent amount of time to both build up the BTC stash and at the same time hope that BTC price appreciation sufficiently works in your favor through the years.

The bit that I’m most worried about will I have bravery to dca during and into next bull and  out the other side. Time will tell :-) thanks all WO posters for your opinions, help, and plain simple hilarity.

It seems to me that you can generally plan further into the next cycle and even the cycle thereafter, but you also are going to be faced with having to wait before you will be able to really apply particulars.  There is nothing wrong with establishing a generally applicable plan that goes 1, 2, 3 or more cycles out into the future - especially if you are not an old person, then you likely have a decently long investment timeline.  

Let's say that you use an Excel spreadsheet to project out, and you can generally project out 1, 2, 3 or more cycles into the future and even out more generally if you are sufficiently young to get some kinds of ideas about where you might be 10, 20, or 30 years into the future.. and if you save your current projections and then you adapt those projections as time passes along, you can sometimes go back and look at your earlier projections to see how close to the mark they were, but of course, the older projections will not have all the information that they need because maybe your income will change or your expenses or your relationships (that cost you money or bring money to you), and you might even have some other investments that either perform well or not .. the same with BTC, you can kind of project ahead, but sometimes you cannot project specifics until they actually happen, and then it makes way more sense, when you have the details of how things have turned out in terms of the amount of your cash and the amount of your BTC rather than projecting it out, you have the actual numbers once you arrive at those future timelines.  

You might project that you would have 1 bitcoin in 2 years, and then 1.5 BTC in 4 years, and then 2.5 bitcoin in 6 years, and 3 bitcoin in 10 years, but then you are a much more solid position to actually apply the next projection if you see that you ended up having 1.5 BTC in 2 years rather than 1 BTC. .or some other detail that ends up causing some material differences from your earlier projections, and then once you plug in the actual achieved amounts, then your projections end up changing too... and sometimes you might not even get too much into specifics (and you could project out each category of asset and assign a dollar value to them or assign a BTC value to them, and it may not matter which value you assign to them, as long as you might be able to convert it later, as needed as your preferences or frame of reference might change with the passage of time, too).
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October 07, 2022, 06:03:28 PM


Explanation
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October 07, 2022, 06:27:01 PM
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October 07, 2022, 06:34:33 PM

20M$, 100-110, no !  570M$ of binance shitcoin created out of nothing Smiley
Also that Quebec pension fund investment thing is gross incompetence.  The fact they are saying due diligence doesnt guarantee success is just them trying to protect their own jobs because if the public knew how much of a shitshow the whole investment was (there was no due diligence done btw) they would be pissed as heck.

I can explain the whole Celcius business model in less than 5 minutes to anyone that doesnt know anything about crypto.  Its not a business model you want to invest in, unless
1-You plan to fuck everyone and sell before it falls apart
2-You are dumb as a rock and so is higher management and all the risk desk and all the investment teams, demonstrating criminal and gross incompetence that violate their personal fiduciary duties
OR
3-You invest because the people running the show (who have criminal backgrounds and have done scams in the past) give you A FAT BRIBE no one will ever know about.

I feel option 3 is the least bad one.

If anyone wants to have fun going through 15000 pages of transactions and user balances go for it : https://ia601401.us.archive.org/28/items/celsius/celsius.pdf
All the insiders sold and made bank

Even though I largely agree with you about the lack of due diligence, it seems that you are being overly harsh on them in terms of the temptations that everyone has, including pension fund managers, to get yield with "safe" investments that fit within categories that they are "able to" invest.  The pension fund managers likely thought that they were not putting too many funds at risk in their investment into "safe" yield that ended up being more risky than they had previously calculated it to be.  So maybe the amount that they lost was more of a failure of position size rather than that they had actually done it?  And, if they started out with a small size, and then saw that it was working, then they get greedy by increasing their size each year.. until they have not done enough due diligence on that particular position size, even if they might have done enough due diligence if the position size had been a smaller amount.

I am so excited for the next bull run and I am checking price every hour waiting for the day when I become a bitcoin millionaire.
I called $22k, we went $17k. I am now calling $180k for next peak, I hope Bitcoin CEO provides me with much more than that.
Also If I die before that day, let my family know I was part of this awesome journey. Smiley
Waiting is a tedious job, but even more boring if you have nothing to wait for.
I hope what you are waiting for can give good results, at least it is a good boredom for you.

What do you mean by "nothing" reagansimms?  Are you suggesting that you do not have any BTC?  If so, you better get stacking.  You don't want to end up like eXPHorizon
 - which is begging for BTC - even after more than 8 years of opportunties to stack sats.

Since about mid-2020, I have been recommending $100 per week, but if you can only do $10 per week or some smaller amount, then do what you can.  You don't want to make the mistake of not stacking, but you also don't want to make the mistake of stacking too much and then running into  cashflow problems in which you have to sell some or all of your BTC at a time that is anything other than your own complete and voluntary choosing.  

Begging is not a good place for anyone to be, especially if they have not at least mad some pretty solid efforts to self-help along the way, and BTC gives such self-help opportunities to those people who know about it and who attempt to exercise such powerful opportunties with reason, prudence and perhaps even a wee bit of aggressiveness.
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October 07, 2022, 07:01:22 PM
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When all the shit went down earlier this year I was tempted to write him a "ha-ha-told-you-so"-type email or expose him publicly, but I never did. I reckon its ultimately not necessary, but can't help but wonder if he remembers me.
Of course he remembers! When a person loses large sums of money, it is natural to begin to analyze why this happened, and whether there were options to avoid it. In this case, you could become his lifeline, if he were not a fool. But life will always bring a lesson, and she will not choose the easier one to do it, it can be very hard lessons.

In addition, there is such a type of people who will never admit their mistake, moreover, he could accuse you, that you understanding the situation, but "couldn't explain to him how things really are." I also worked as a manager at various jobs, and I know how a boss knows how to arrange everything so that you will always be wrong, and there is no point in arguing with him because in the end he will still find a way to show you his superiority on this job.
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October 07, 2022, 07:51:33 PM

The accumulation process in Bitcoin continues. They are trying to harass the market, back and forth. Market makers are doing their job really well. We can say that it is especially good for those who take big risks on the futures side. I think that with the new data and news announced in the near future, there will be a sharp movement in one direction or another. It may try first up. We can see the 22-23 thousand dollar band.
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