You are really lost.
How does ethereum have anything to do with dee honey badger?
[...] Oh by the way, I frequently tell the story of some construction costs that I had in 2018/2019, and quite a few bills ended up coming due way too early than I anticipated, and it seems to me that at that time, I ended up selling around 3.5% of my BTC stash to cover my bills (and the BTC prices might have had been between $4k and $4,200 at the time that I sold), and maybe I was able to recover around half of the amount that I sold.. but it becomes a bit unclear how much I was able to recover because surely when we sell extra amounts, we cannot always compare where we are at as compared to where we would have had been, even though we did end up taking a fork in the road and having to make the choice...and surely part of the reason I had to sell as much as I did is based on a kind of presumption that I did not care, and if needed I could have sold around $6k or $7k.. but then all of a sudden trading prices dropped nearly in half...and then my bills were coming in...so sometimes mistakes are made...but like right now, if I had similar bills, I probably could sell only less than half of a percent of my stash and end up with more cash (perhaps double the cash) than I ended up with selling 3.5-ish% of my then BTC stash in late 2018
[...]
Yes... It happens...
My mobile phone now costs ~$12,000 (0.13 BTC when I bought it). I had plenty of fiat to buy it with that, but I used BTC for...reasons (BTW, I had pepperoni pizza yesterday -- paid with fiat). I guess we shouldn't dwell too much on our past BTC spending, because it will likely feel more bitter than sweet (in some sense). Better to think of the spent BTC as percentages of our stash, as you do above, which nicely demonstrates our stash's current purchasing power, which, hopefully for many of us, is near- or past-fuck-you status. So, yeah, we bought some stuff with our corn, but we can still buy a ton more stuff, and our purchasing power keeps going up forever, so it looks like we're OK to shave off small amounts as needed, to feed our often complex and sometimes illogical spending habits...
I was further considering this whole matter, especially since in order to refresh my memory about the above story, I was a little bit confused because I was running the numbers in my head, and then when I went to confirm the numbers from my memory with actual contemporary documents, I come to realize that currently I have about 10% less bitcoin now than I did then, yet it is really not bad in the whole scheme of things, since if we consider that in the whole scheme of matters the BTC price right now is 23x higher, yet I ONLY sold 10% of my stash? WTF?
My system allows me to sell up to 10% of my stash for every doubling, and that is right around 4.5 doublings. Sure, I have been overly whimpy in my BTC sales along the way.. so yeah, I suppose I don't really fell bad about making mistakes, and even if I was lying to myself in terms of my ability to recuperate the 3.5% that I ended up selling.. and surely my construction costs were even greater than that 3.5% that I had to sell.. but any other money that I was using was from any of the monies that were largely folded into my BTC management system.
The guys who are making mistakes are selling way larger portions of their BTC, and I could probably double or triple my amounts of regular sales, and still be holding too much BTC...
So let's say for example if the BTC price goes up 23x, and instead of selling 10% of my stash, I had sold 30% of my stash? I don't see anything wrong with that Because the value is still going up way faster than the amount being drawn out.. It is like if I say to myself instead of drawing out 3% every time that the BTC price goes up 7x, then why don't you live it up a bit and draw out 6%? But then we are here hanging out at higher BTC prices and so many are afraid that the BTC price might drop... Sure any of us should be able to draw some more out, if needed, especially since we already might have had been erroring on the side of conservatism and we were largely not really drawing much if any out in earlier times of our bitcoin journey..
My new theories regarding sustainable withdrawal really shows themselves through the charts, and thinking about a 10% withdrawal level, in
January 2023, it took right around 32.75 BTC to reach entry level fuck you status (at those levels), as compared to now, we are already
down to 18.19 BTC. That is about a 45% reduction in stash size in 2 years in order to reach the same results. Sure we might want to have a bit of an extra cushion in there and we also might want to assert that the dollar does not buy as much as it did 2 years ago, and so sure we can adjust our numbers in order to account for that and still be way in the lead with bitcoin and and increasing smaller stash size to reach default entry level fuck you status..
GM, Observers Of The Wall, another week of watching what Bitcoin will do. Hopefully new all time highs soon, I don’t think we are far away from a breakout.
Some people have been speculating that we are not going to get anymore ATHs for a while because of Trump.
hahahahahaha
There could be some truth that there was too much froth in our recent Trump pump, and so the high of January 20 ($109,356) has to simmer a bit before the UPpity is going to be ready to be broken again, but still to me, it seems like a BIG SO WHAT?
There are always going to be naysayers, praying for down before up, and sometimes they are correct, and other times they are not. Sometimes they are prepared for either direction, and other times they sold too much too soon. No coiners and low coiners should not even be involved in these kinds of discussions, since by definition they are not sufficiently/adequately prepared for UP.
In the whole scheme of things, there is nothing wrong with being prepared for either direction, yet some of those naysayers are overly prepared for down, and underprepared for up.
I am not even saying that we have to go up, but we are still in a bull market until we are not.. so the inclination continues to be in favor of up rather than down...so good luck to the overly-prepared for down twats, you are going to need it.
(of course, not referring to you LFC, since you are probably overly-prepared for up, if that is possible?.. hahahahahahaha).
I ONLY want to bet if we can clarify the terms, and yeah, I had proposed a bet that we would be betting in bitcoin rather than in dollars... so yep, my understanding of 10 to 1 would be something like my winning 0.001 BTC if we go below $90k, and your winning 0.0001 BTC if we don't. Surely the bet would close if the BTC price were to go below $90k or alternatively on the other end (on the upside), I was willing to have the bet close at either the end of 2026 to close the bet or alternatively if we reach $333,333 or higher, then that would close the bet too.
Of course, you are free to propose alternative terms.. I was just winging it and just trying to capture the essence of your willingness to commit to your sorcerer wannabe claim... We could even reduce the amounts of the bet by half or even more than half you consider the current proposed amounts as too high. We could change the odds too, but I thought that I was being fairly generous with the odds since you were proclaiming "never" below $90k ever again, so my giving something in the ballpark of 10% odds is being generous to you in order to allow you some wiggle room, no? If you said "never" and if you really meant it, then you should be willing to give me 100:1 or even 1,000 to 1 odds, so to me, 10 to 1 odds seems pretty generous from me to you, in the whole scheme of things. No?
I got it.
Here is the proposal, I am giving you 10:1 odds. I will pledge 0.0003070
BTC (equivalent to 30$) and if
BTC goes below 90k$ before Dec 2026 then you can have it or I will get it back by 31st Dec 2026 if
BTC doesn't goes below 90k$. I can also have it back before Dec 2026, if
BTC reaches 333,333$.
You can provide me any wallet where I can pledge these
BTC or we can hire services of
hisslyness as he already has offered his help.
Typical... Always changing the goal post... not really confident after all?
WatChe, You should take the bet. then it will be a win-win-WIN scenario...
Think about how much that 0.0001 would be worth in 2 years time! if need be I can help facilitate this small wager.
Well yeah I think that you have largely described the terms even though the amount seems so small to almost be insignificant. To clarify, the outside date would be on or before December 31, 2026 - probably using midnight UTC on Bitstamp as our reference.
So, maybe we should use round numbers? You would put 0.0003 BTC into the fund (potentially held by hisslyness), and I would put 0.00003 into the fund. We could add a bit for transaction fees (or if hisslyness tells us that he has some kind of a fee or a minimum amount, then he could tell us about that.. or maybe if we each add 1% to the amount we send hisslyness that will cover any fees), yet we also could send our amounts to hisslyness in a lightning address. I think that it might be more difficult to keep the amounts segregated in a lighting wallet address, but if we send the amounts on chain, then we cannot know the fees at the time of the payout.. but we could see the values on chain.
Whoever wins would get all of the amount in the fund 0.00033 BTC. I am not sure if that might be too small of a bet for hisslyness to want to get involved in the escrow of it? Or we could skip escrow since the amounts are so small, and each of us seem pretty clear about the terms of the bet....
Just to reiterate:The bet would close out in your favor (with me paying you 0.00003 BTC / 3,000 satoshis) on two possible conditions: 1) the BTC price goes above $333,333 on Bitstamp or 2) the time goes beyond 23:59 UTC December 31, 2026, and the BTC price had not gone below $90k on Bitstamp.
The bet would close in my favor (with you paying me 0.0003 BTC / 30,000 satoshis ) if the BTC price touches any price below $90,000 on Bitstamp before 23:59 UTC December 31, 2026.
If we skip the escrow (skip involving hisslyness) then we would have to give each other a bitcoin address (lightning seems more feasible) at the time the bet closes.. and just figure that the amount received would have to include fees already having had been paid by the sender... .
By the way, I think that we are agreeing to the BTC amounts for the bet.. and the dollar value of the bet is nearly irrelevant, except we are betting on whether or not bitcoin will go below $90k, but the bet would be valued in bitcoin as outlined above...and probably we are just agreeing to stay in touch and to pay the bet promptly upon any of the conditions closing the bet being met as I reiterated the conditions above.
SOMA I bet on sideways, dancing around 100k until fall, then...
That is a pretty long time for sideways (Fall would be like August? or September?). I am not sure if dee cornz does sideways upon command, like that.
Maybe a WO announcement/commitment to honor the wager should suffice, no need for an escrow...
No escrow would just be on the honor system.. and also with a bit of a commitment to "stay in touch." I am usually here every day or every few days at worse... and sure it is not really too important about attendance, unless the bet terms start to appear close to closing.... by the way on my end, if I were to lose the bet, and I end up paying out the bet at or around $333,333, then that would mean that my side of the bet would be around $10 (0.00003 x $333,333). Of course I would be paying out in BTC. 0.00003 BTC (or 3,000 satoshis).. but still, not really a high value bet on either end of the bet.
Admittedly, I did expect that WatChe would back out of this kind of a bet, even though I considered that I was giving him better terms than the extremeness of his language might have allowed, especially since he had said never, which is a pretty long time, and a pretty absolute statement.
No need for JJG to send (pledge) anything. Just 30$ worth of BTC from my side will be good enough. If I will I will get that back, if JJG wins he can get that.
Waiting for JJG to come and sign the deal
That is true that if I were not to pledge anything on my end, then it is like you are just pledging on your end and showing that you have even greater confidence that sub-$90k will never be breached.. .almost like a reflection of your confidence that sub-$90k will "never" be breached.
Bets are a bit more fun if they have two sides (even with odds), since both sides are then committed to some value in the bet, and that is part of the reason why sometimes odds might end up being very extreme in which one side puts very little relative to the amount of the potential payout...., and I would prefer to put some value (including the 0.00003 BTC (3,000 satoshis) that I mentioned, even though I appreciate that you are asserting even higher levels of confidence back to your original statement of "never."
By the way, I don't usually cheer for DOWNity in BTC prices.. so I don't really want to win the bet. I am just a bit bothered when members make absolute statements when it comes to the BTC price, especially when we are talking about prices that less than 10% away from our current price, and even in the last few days, we had downity bounces to bring the BTC price within about 5% of breaching sub $90k (with our low of $94,726 from two days ago).
Sometime last year, maybe early in the year, I had mentioned that I thought that the odds were greater than 50/50 that the BTC price will not come within 25% of the 200-WMA prior to the end of 2025, and surely there were a few times that I was starting to become quite worried about my proclamation, even though I did not have an active bet. For example on August 2, 2024, the BTC price temporarily spiked all the way down to $49,577, and the 200-WMA on that day was $37,584, which means that the 200-WMA got within about 32% of the 200-WMA on that day and in that spike.
In another instance, I recall in about late March 2019 when the BTC price was merely in the $3,900s, and JSRaw proclaimed that sub $3,900 was never going to be breached again, and I chided him for his asserted level of confidence, and he ended up being correct until March 12, 2020, we ended up getting a red candle that spike for a few minutes down to $3,850.. hahahahahaha.. He was mostly correct, but technically he ended up being wrong for just a few minutes and nearly a year later.
Poll
