Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[JayJuanGee]

I decided to try that bitcoin DCA thingie starting maybe in July as I will have some additional cash flow (that I don't need for spending) coming up then.
Not sure how to do it, though...maybe will just keep it on Kraken or Coinbase or, maybe not.
I should catch up the upward surge (if one is coming) in late 2025 or early 2026.

That is quite a bit into the future 4 months-ish. 

I frequently suggest weekly, but it becomes difficult when you might already have a lot of BTC, and I think that frequently the idea of DCA is just to buy when you have the money come in.. but if you are getting BIG chunks at a time then you might be reluctant to spend all  the new money at once...

So when you determine that you have extra money, then you just use it to buy during that week.  If you know in advance how much you are going to get, then you know when the money is coming in, but if you get all of the money in one chunk or  a couple of chunks, for example at the beginning of July, then you might want to spread out some of your buys out through July and/or August, then that may or may not be such a good idea depending on what the BTC price is doing or expected to do,.. ..

but yeah, it is kind of a discretionary thing about how to divide it.. like if you were to know that you were getting $36k (or something like that) then you could use some of it (perhaps 1/3 $12k) to buy right away, and then another part to DCA (perhaps 1/3 $12k) and then another part to buy on dips (perhaps 1/3 $12k) ..

[Biodom]

One possibility for a small bear market is that, perhaps, lots of fed workers were into bitcoin crypto since they knew about the systemic "rot", presumably, and now, fearing for their jobs, are selling off?
BTw, the last I heard, real estate in DC area declined 20%, which is not surprising.

If less gov largess would result in smaller bitcoin, it would suck, but this is what Musk was predicting few weeks ago.
Long term, the cycle (or following cycles) will restart after the stock market decline followed by another inevitable QE, imho.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[JimboToronto]

BTw, the last I heard, real estate in DC area declined 20%, which is not surprising.

Hey, cheap real estate!

Maybe Little Donnie Boy can develop Washington D.C. into the "Riviera of the East Coast". 

[philipma1957]

BTw, the last I heard, real estate in DC area declined 20%, which is not surprising.

Hey, cheap real estate!

Maybe Little Donnie Boy can develop Washington D.C. into the "Riviera of the East Coast".  

will get worse.

i am thinking canada will soon have nuclear weapons from uk and france

maybe ukraine and greenland get hooked up.

[Biodom]

BTw, the last I heard, real estate in DC area declined 20%, which is not surprising.

Hey, cheap real estate!

Maybe Little Donnie Boy can develop Washington D.C. into the "Riviera of the East Coast".  

will get worse.

i am thinking canada will soon have nuclear weapons from uk and france

maybe ukraine and greenland get hooked up.

there is no country of Greenland, lol

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[philipma1957]

BTw, the last I heard, real estate in DC area declined 20%, which is not surprising.

Hey, cheap real estate!

Maybe Little Donnie Boy can develop Washington D.C. into the "Riviera of the East Coast".  

will get worse.

i am thinking canada will soon have nuclear weapons from uk and france

maybe ukraine and greenland get hooked up.

there is no country of Greenland, lol

did I write that ukraine is a country nope
did I write that canada is a country nope
did I write the greenland is a country nope.


but all three places are being threatened by nuclear nations.

and as I type the us russia and china could be shifting into an axis of power.

So arming canada greenland and ukraine with nukes may be necessary.

or not.


maybe its a quadrant of power.

china
north korea
russia
usa

if nukes are a deterrent I am just saying maybe those spots need nukes.


hell pakistan and india have nukes and so far so good.

[xhomerx10]

Still got quite a bit left if anyone needs a hit.

 

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[LFC_Bitcoin]

Daily rsi the lowest it’s been for 8 months. Seems oversold now, either we bounce soon or it’s see you in four years.

[hisslyness]

@WatChe   - Should I be speculating that we have resolved all of our bet terms and that we don't really have any ambiguities to resolve?  including that we may well be choosing between transacting on lightning network in the event that Bitcoin onchain fees might not be reasonable at the time that our bet ends up closing?  Do we need to write the terms of our bet in one little blob and then say we agree or not?  Maybe I should try to write it out?

Here it is:

The bet would close out in WatChe's favor (with JJG paying WatChe 0.00003 BTC / 3,000 satoshis) on two possible conditions: 1) the BTC price goes above $333,333 on Bitstamp or 2) the time goes beyond 23:59 UTC December 31, 2026, and the BTC price had not gone below $90k on Bitstamp.

The bet would close in JJG's favor (with WatChe paying JJG 0.0003 BTC / 30,000 satoshis ) if the BTC price touches any price below $90,000 on Bitstamp before 23:59 UTC December 31, 2026.

Once the bet closes, the winning person will send the losing person a bitcoin address and/or a lightning network address that is reasonably feasible for the losing person to be able to send the amount of bitcoin (satoshis) to resolve the payment of the bet in a reasonably timely manner and to be able to transact in mutually agreeable ways that facilitates the receiving of the above mentioned quantity of satoshis to the winning person accounting for reasonable fees and also accounting for ability of the winner to be able to reasonably use the amount received (without it being dust).. which given the relatively small bet size, likely means that the lightning network would be most likely to be feasible way of transacting the bet.

If for some reason JJG & WatChe disagree about the resolution of the bet (such as in who's favor the bet is resolved, or if the bet has closed), or about the resolution of the means of payment for the bet, then hissleness hisslyness willl be the third vote that would be used to resolve any such dispute.

Agree or not?

Thanks JJG for taking the pain of writing down the terms and conditions .

I fully AGREE with terms you mentioned.  

After going back and forth between us, I doubt that we would disagree about term interpretations, but I did not get @hissleness @hisslyness to agree in advance to his role...  so hopefully, he would be willing to resolve any dispute in regards to the terms of the bet, if any disagreements were to arise.

I somehow inadvertently inserted myself into this wager, out of frustration, mostly... However, i am more than happy to be the third adjudicator in this and also act as a third reminder of such wager! Rules are crystal clear, that i am sure i will not be needed.

Good Luck to you both!

$90,000USD Breched on BitStamp

WatChe You have lost the bet, please PM JJG to settle the wager!

Ohh shit!.. just had a flash crash down to $87,629!!!

[El duderino_]

Brutal beating for a Tuesday morning

[hisslyness]

Brutal beating for a Tuesday morning

Sucks, but not unexpected.... as longs as we are hodling, we haven't lost anything!

[somac.]

Daily rsi the lowest it’s been for 8 months. Seems oversold now, either we bounce soon or it’s see you in four years.

I don't think 4 years, but definitely an extended time.

Though I think we'll bounce soonish but we will probably be stuck in a range for a length of time similar to last year.

[bitcoinPsycho]

Sideways since November 2024. Don't panic !

[Paashaas]

^ $5000 dump incoming.

$4500 dump is acceptable above that it will a chaos.

It's going lower, much lower.

[LoyceV]

I don't think 4 years, but definitely an extended time.

Though I think we'll bounce soonish but we will probably be stuck in a range for a length of time similar to last year.

I used to say 30% drops on the way up are normal, and so far, we haven't had a 30% drop yet. I've seen it happen several times in previous bull runs.
I don't like it though, lower €85k feels so low now.

I'm just reminding myself of the date I posted this:

In a few months, we'll feel sad Bitcoin is down to $75k again.