Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[d_eddie]

https://x.com/realrossu/status/1891541644362563780?s=46

Spoken by the one the whole WO believed to deserve a second chance
He likes the president

If he'd freed my ass
Ten long years of doom and gloom
I would like him too




#haiku

[OgNasty]

Hopefully we're seeing the worst of it as the FTX money is rumored to start going out this week.  It would be nice if a lot of those funds flowed into Bitcoin.  It seemed to me that FTX was a Solana focused exchange (or maybe it just appeared that way because they stole everyone's money and dumped it into SOL) so I would expect we'd see the biggest rise there, but who knows.  Maybe some of those folks learned their lesson and will be self-custodying their Bitcoin from here on out.  Should be a more excited week than normal.  I'll be watching and hoping to learn something.

[Biodom]

I am a bit bemused by the current 'crab market' despite the multitude of bullish announcements.

Consider these four points:

1. Abu Dhabi sovereign wealth fund is $1.7 tril and recently bought $436 mil btc (in a form of ETF). $436 mil is about 0.026%. Now, Larry Fink have said that someone (my read it was a sov wealth fund) had discussed with him whether the "proper" allocation should be 2% or 5%.

Do the math...Abu Dhabi would have to buy 80X (additional 33.1 bil) to get to 2% and 192X ($83.4bil) to get to 5%.
The current total in IBIT is 59bil.

2. Recent from M.Saylor: https://www.thestreet.com/crypto/markets/michael-saylor-predicts-5-million-btc-price

Apart from the price, he predicts that relatively soon you would be able to get a loan at SOFR+0.5% for your bitcoin, so there would be NO need to sell. Sofr is currently around 4.3-4.35%.

3. Bill Miller Jr: https://youtu.be/O828QTvraLE?t=95

4. Who is selling? https://youtu.be/4PT5wKJEqHs?t=22

My explanation (based in part on a vid above) for the crab market is that OGs got PTSD from the 2021-2022 "fiasco" (bull market under-performance) and they decided to sell early this time and the price around 100K seems OK to them since it is still about 40-50% higher than in 2021.

From the data above to suggest that "old" holders are selling, but new "whales" (like Abu Dhabi, presumably) are buying is not unreasonable.

Make a call...I know what mine is...hodling, of course  

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[philipma1957]

talk about being upside down.

no fatalities . I want to say something witty about this .  maybe the wo will figure something out.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[JimboToronto]

Happy Presidents' Day to all my American WO buddies!

I could never understand why there's a holiday to celebrate civil servants.

Especially insubordinate servants.

[JayJuanGee]

Hopefully we're seeing the worst of it as the FTX money is rumored to start going out this week.  It would be nice if a lot of those funds flowed into Bitcoin.  It seemed to me that FTX was a Solana focused exchange (or maybe it just appeared that way because they stole everyone's money and dumped it into SOL) so I would expect we'd see the biggest rise there, but who knows.  Maybe some of those folks learned their lesson and will be self-custodying their Bitcoin from here on out.  Should be a more excited week than normal.  I'll be watching and hoping to learn something.

I don't know how so frequently you come up with so many narrow and simplistic theories about so many things.

Sure FTX stole a lot of money, since they had maybe less than 1% of the 80k bitcoin that they were supposed to have, but they had given a lot of money away and pumped the money into all kinds of projects, and part of the reason that the creditors did not lose in dollar value (at the time of the bankruptcy filing) is that one or two of their investments (gambles) had paid off (wasn't it in some AI company?), and then yeah, the executor of the estate was able to recoupe some of the other value too, yet another place that FTX was putting value was into FTT token.  Sure they printed a bunch of FTT tokens for free, but then later (or towards the end), they were selling  BTC trying to keep their fake value FTT token from going to zero.  I am not going to claim all of the places that FTX was putting value, but it was not merely in Solana.

I don't have a list of their assets and/or liabilities at the time of the bankruptcy, yet I imagine whatever assets were recovered were converted into cash at various points in time, and sure there were likely some Solana in there that were already sold by the trustee.

Make a call...I know what mine is...hodling, of course  

Well if you have enough cornz, then sure HODL, and if you don't have enough keep buying (accumulating) as aggressively as you are able to without overdoing it, and until you have enough (and you have to be the judge of how much is enough, or how much is more than enough).

I will still like to point out that you are contradicting your statement from just a week ago or so, just a wee bit. 

Remember?  You were considering selling some cornz at around these here prices in order to prepare ur lil selfie for a possible dip.. Just in case. Remember?   

You are like an emotional inconsistent wreck. But still I kind of like you.  #nohomo , which might show more about me than you. 

Don't make me have to go back and quote your specific posts, since it was not even that long ago in the whole scheme of things.. that you were sell contemplating. 

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[JimboToronto]

I appreciate Michael Saylor's pro-Bitcoin stance and if it actually had ambassadors, he'd be on my short list of candidates.   I do however take exception with this statement:

3. Everyone is against Bitcoin before they are for it.

This might be "projection" on his part.  I don't profess to speak for everyone and certainly most people I talked to about it from the beginning were skeptical or just had no interest but personally, I was never against Bitcoin.  My understanding of Bitcoin changed over time and maybe I was only curious about it at first but I was never "against" Bitcoin.  I suppose anyone can have a list of "rules" though and he didn't call it Saylor's Laws of Bitcoin so maybe it was just a fun thing to pass some time for him and I'm overthinking this one.

I for one was never "against" Bitcoin.

As soon as I became aware of its existence, I was immediately fascinated and curious and became an instant enthusiast. I just wish I'd heard of it sooner.

I'd probably be filthy rich. Unfortunately I was too late to start GPU mining so my hobby of PC hardware wasn't of much use. The race to replace FPGAs with ASICs was already going full tilt and I actually pre-ordered ASICs from Butterfly Labs before acquiring my first coins.

How many would I have stacked if I'd paid pennies instead of dollars and stuffed mobos with videocards?

[danadc]

Things with the btc market have been a bit ambiguous for some, the most skeptical are tricked into selling, weak hands for me.

There are many rumors like these:


Bitcoin Bull Run Just Getting Started as Institutions Load Up, Says Bernstein

Analysts Gautam Chhugani, Mahika Sapra, and Sanskar Chindalia wrote that the bull run was ignited by the prospect and later approval of Bitcoin exchange-traded funds in the U.S., and then pushed on by the election of crypto-friendly Donald Trump. More is to come, they said, as institutional cash continues to flow into the space.

Original Source:https://decrypt.co/306408/bitcoin-bull-run-just-getting-started-bernstein

There are many who expect the BTC to continue to fall in price, I don't think it will fall any further, could it be that the whales are preparing to make a good bullish turn?

I am optimistic about BTC, I don't deny it, but in some forum threads the majority is betting that it will fall in price, why? There are things that cannot be predicted with accuracy.

I think that the price will rise again and because the wars in the world have been calming down, this generates more confidence in investors.

[vapourminer]

How many would I have stacked if I'd paid pennies instead of dollars and stuffed mobos with videocards?

the answer, as always, is never enough

[Biodom]

<snip>Don't make me have to go back and quote your specific posts, since it was not even that long ago in the whole scheme of things.. that you were sell contemplating.  

I believe that I was discussing a possibility, not a certainty...additionally, sometimes when you describe your 'fears' on the internet "paper" (white space), they go away for a while, at least.
Finally, as everybody knows, hodling (or dip buying) is not easy.
Ad astra per aspera

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[cAPSLOCK]

I find this to be retarded and just plain wrong. In fact, every sale of Bitcoin has a buyer, so if you're buying Bitcoin, you're buying it from someone selling it. That's not causing the network to be strengthened or weakened, the electricity that goes into mining strengthens the network.

Secondly, not everyone has either been in Bitcoin long enough to be independently wealthy or been able to start from a level that they could reach that later on.  I know a guy who recently had to sell some of his bitcoin so he could pay for heating oil. Should he have frozen to death instead?

I say do what you want, the Bitcoin network doesn't care, and why do we have money? It's not just so we can have the biggest pile at the end.

This may seem ironic for those of you who know me. Those of you who know that know I have Bitcoin, but I live a very simple life because I just don't feel the need to spend it. But I see that as being different. That's my choice. It's not me telling other people what to do with their money. In fact, I kinda don't want to be told myself.

Sometimes the things people say about Bitcoin begin to sound like a religion, and I get it. It's a big deal. It's changing the world.

But it doesn't solve every problem, and it's not a religion. It really shouldn't be.

[nutildah]

- Hates the "privacy" aspect of Bitcoin
- Cheers on central control of Bitcoin
- Has probably never made a single Bitcoin transaction
- Knows fuckall about how it works

Sorry Mario, the cheerleader you're looking for is in another castle.

[Biodom]

I find this to be retarded and just plain wrong. In fact, every sale of Bitcoin has a buyer, so if you're buying Bitcoin, you're buying it from someone selling it. That's not causing the network to be strengthened or weakened, the electricity that goes into mining strengthens the network.

Secondly, not everyone has either been in Bitcoin long enough to be independently wealthy or been able to start from a level that they could reach that later on.  I know a guy who recently had to sell some of his bitcoin so he could pay for heating oil. Should he have frozen to death instead?

I say do what you want, the Bitcoin network doesn't care, and why do we have money? It's not just so we can have the biggest pile at the end.

This may seem ironic for those of you who know me. Those of you who know that know I have Bitcoin, but I live a very simple life because I just don't feel the need to spend it. But I see that as being different. That's my choice. It's not me telling other people what to do with their money. In fact, I kinda don't want to be told myself.

Sometimes the things people say about Bitcoin begin to sound like a religion, and I get it. It's a big deal. It's changing the world.

But it doesn't solve every problem, and it's not a religion. It really shouldn't be.

quote-haha, what a character-talking about MKeizer, of course.
And selling ETF is a "minor'' sin...like thinking about "it'', right?
Soon, we will have an "Order of Saintoshi"  
lol

EDIT: That said, long term holders are not monks, but they are certainly "stoics".

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com