Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[poncho32]

COIN = no, therefore BTC = down.

Who says COIN = no?

I heard they were months away from making any decision.

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[billyjoeallen]

is anyone paying attention to the macroeconomic picture? The Swiss National Bank shocked world markets by removing it's peg to the Euro, causing it's value to skyrocket. Two systemic Greek banks are using an emergency liquidity tool at the ECB to try and prevent a bank run.  Oil Tanked and Gold spiked. This is 2008 all over again only worse this time.

How this will affect Bitcoin is anyone's guess, but I'm starting to think even my 2.5% margin long was way too premature.

Bank runs mean extreme DEFLATION of national currencies until the central banks ramp up the printing presses, start accepting used toilet paper as collateral and various other forms of counterfeiting.

Wealth is going to evaporate, credit is going to dry up and markets are going to crash with the exception of the safest government bonds (U.S., Swiss and maybe a few others).

I've warned many times for everyone to get their coins (and even fiat) off the exchanges if you aren't going to trade, but now I am saying it may soon be time to get your fiat out of the banks.  



 

Potential bank run in the small Greek banks? So what.

What's the worst that can happen? The ECB step in and take over the banks' assets and loan books?

And besides, Greece is about 1% of the Euro (if even).

Greece is the canary in the coal mine. They are not having a liquidity crisis. They are having a solvency crisis. They owe an ass-load of money to Germany and if German banks are forced to write off those bad loans, it could very easily trigger a cascade as Portugal, Italy, and Ireland are in almost as bad shape. Just like when a margin call sets off a string of margin calls in bitcoin, these things can spiral out of control very fast.

Many many People, companies and national governments owe an extremely large amount of money that they can only make payments on by taking on new debt. If credit dries up, it presents a systemic risk that can only be halted by massive new liquidity injections from the central banks. But this only kicks the can down the road, as the crisis of 2008 was only postponed until this year. The only way to really fix it is to let it happen.  We need a massive severe depression to transfer the malinvested capital to competent managers.  But of course the banksters who run the world will not let that happen, so we'll get another round of QE counterfeiting to kick the can once again.

[N12]

What if Mark Karpeles managed Silk Road and Ross Ulbricht managed MtGox and that's why both have gone to shit?

[BrewCrewFan]

Is this the end of BTC ??

Yes, like the thousand other times this very thing has been uttered over the last 5 years. Sell your coins and delete your account here... its over.

[barbs]

Is this the end of BTC ??

Yes, like the thousand other times this very thing has been uttered over the last 5 years. Sell your coins and delete your account here... its over.

Ok, i deleted the 20 BTC bought at 180 usd and I've sent htem to you thanks for your time and attention

[Thomas-s]

What if Mark Karpeles managed Silk Road and Ross Ulbricht managed MtGox and that's why both have gone to shit?

What if Mark Karpeles is a genius criminal mastermind?

[janos666]

Topic poll -> I said this after seeing him in The Rise and Rise of Bitcoin movie: he is either retarded (probable), a heavy (mainly opiate-like) drug user (possible) or may be both.

[ivyleague1985]

is anyone paying attention to the macroeconomic picture? The Swiss National Bank shocked world markets by removing it's peg to the Euro, causing it's value to skyrocket. Two systemic Greek banks are using an emergency liquidity tool at the ECB to try and prevent a bank run.  Oil Tanked and Gold spiked. This is 2008 all over again only worse this time.

How this will affect Bitcoin is anyone's guess, but I'm starting to think even my 2.5% margin long was way too premature.

Bank runs mean extreme DEFLATION of national currencies until the central banks ramp up the printing presses, start accepting used toilet paper as collateral and various other forms of counterfeiting.

Wealth is going to evaporate, credit is going to dry up and markets are going to crash with the exception of the safest government bonds (U.S., Swiss and maybe a few others).

I've warned many times for everyone to get their coins (and even fiat) off the exchanges if you aren't going to trade, but now I am saying it may soon be time to get your fiat out of the banks.  



 

I warned the same thing several days ago, telling them how a debt crisis could occur in Russian, Greece and spill over to the Euro zone. But I only received bashing.

Someone even registered a new account to bash me in red ink.

Another financial crisis is due in 1-2 months.

See the decline of oil price, see the decline of stock index, see the depleting of foreign reserves, see the turmoil in the foreign exchange market, etc...

[BTCtrader71]

The only reason we're going under $200 again is because the FPRs haven't attracted a new bear whale yet. as soon as we see a giant ask wall low enough, it's gonna get eaten like fried chicken at Sunday potluck.

This is why I'm only 2.5% margin long right now. Have to keep my powder dry to hunt bear whales.

so who's the sucker gonna be?

In past FPR raids, how much time is it between the crash and the spike? A few days?

[Brewins]

What if Mark Karpeles managed Silk Road and Ross Ulbricht managed MtGox and that's why both have gone to shit?

What if Mark Karpeles is a genius criminal mastermind?

A criminal mastermind that blew up his 2 biggest business in few years?

Yes, he is really a genius

[Walsoraj]

http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/2skgcr/i_was_at_the_ross_ulbricht_silk_road_trial_day_3/

I was at the Ross Ulbricht / Silk Road Trial Day 3. AMA. (self.Bitcoin)
submitted an hour ago by quodestlicitum

The defense dropped a bomb on the prosecution today. They were able to get the prosecution's own witness to admit that he had opened an investigation of Mark Karpeles and Ashley Barr as being the duo behind the Silk Road. The trial ended with the prosecution objecting to the defense's mention of Mark Karpeles's ownership of the site Bitcointalk.com, shortly after vehemently objecting to mention of a possible deal with Karpeles out of Baltimore to turn over the name of DPR in return for not facing any further prosecution. Crazy crazy day!

[–]i5o
grabs popcorn

Do you personally believe it's possible that Ross Ulbricht's claims are true, and that Mark Karpeles and Ashley Barr were indeed running the site and using him as a scapegoat?

Link to the story for those who haven't read up on it.

[–]quodestlicitum
The truth is I have no idea. But for purposes of the trial, whether I believe it is actually Mark Karpeles or not, isn't relevant. The defense is doing an excellent job of introducing reasonable doubt.

Keep in mind, the defense didn't mention Mark Karpeles in their opening statement. Dratel was able to get all this information out of the government's own witness on cross-examination. The government's own witness thought Karpeles was the invisible hand behind silk road, and that ashley barr was dpr.

Dratel asked Agent DerYaghiayan about information they had subpoenaed from Dwolla, and whether Ulbricht and Karpeles had moved money. Ulbricht had moved a few thousand dollars over 2 years. On the other hand, there was a firehose of money coming from Mt. Gox through Dwolla. Mutem Sigellum (Karepeles' holding company) had a transaction list 1000 pages long.

According to this redditor, DerYaghiayan suspected Ashley Barr was DPR.

Googling "Ashley Barr Bitcoin" turns up the following:

https://jp.linkedin.com/in/ar4sjp

https://twitter.com/ar4s

[NotLambchop]

...
Many many People, companies and national governments owe an extremely large amount of money that they can only make payments on by taking on new debt. If credit dries up, it presents a systemic risk that can only be halted by massive new liquidity injections from the central banks. ...

Who is the lucky guy all this debt is owed to?  Does Dawg The Bounty Hunter collect for him?  'Coz if he does, "People, companies and national governments" will surely pay.

[NotLambchop]

What if Mark Karpeles managed Silk Road and Ross Ulbricht managed MtGox and that's why both have gone to shit?

What if Mark Karpeles is a genius criminal mastermind?

A criminal mastermind that blew up his 2 biggest business in few years?

Yes, he is really a genius

Yeah, laugh.  As if that chubby human body is his final form

[billyjoeallen]

The only reason we're going under $200 again is because the FPRs haven't attracted a new bear whale yet. as soon as we see a giant ask wall low enough, it's gonna get eaten like fried chicken at Sunday potluck.

This is why I'm only 2.5% margin long right now. Have to keep my powder dry to hunt bear whales.

so who's the sucker gonna be?

In past FPR raids, how much time is it between the crash and the spike? A few days?

The pattern gets flatter each time. It could be several days to two weeks before we go over $240 assuming the pattern is even still valid. That was by far the largest crash bitcoin has had since 2009 and reversing market momentum may be too much even for the FPRs. 

For example I would love to buy more BTC right now at what I consider bargain prices, but I can't afford it. I wonder how many people are in a similar situation. I would imagine there would be some whales looking to get in cheap, but with the macroeconomic picture deteriorating by the day, they may have bigger concerns than our little experimental currency.

[billyjoeallen]

...
Many many People, companies and national governments owe an extremely large amount of money that they can only make payments on by taking on new debt. If credit dries up, it presents a systemic risk that can only be halted by massive new liquidity injections from the central banks. ...

Who is the lucky guy all this debt is owed to?  Does Dawg The Bounty Hunter collect for him?  'Coz if he does, "People, companies and national governments" will surely pay.

It's owed to banks. These banks lend money to almost anyone and when it gets paid back, they keep the interest (profits), but when it doesn't get payed back, they run crying to the central banks for a bail-out. And they get a bail-out, which is why when the dust settles they go right back to loose lending standards. Privatized gains and socialized losses. It is a major reason why we are trying to create an alternative.

[tarmi]

What if Mark Karpeles managed Silk Road and Ross Ulbricht managed MtGox and that's why both have gone to shit?

What if Mark Karpeles is a genius criminal mastermind?

A criminal mastermind that blew up his 2 biggest business in few years?

Yes, he is really a genius

mtgox & silk road are just charades! if you ever used mtgox or silk road you would know that.

he is controlling the biggest chunk of coins here.

[twiifm]

is anyone paying attention to the macroeconomic picture? The Swiss National Bank shocked world markets by removing it's peg to the Euro, causing it's value to skyrocket. Two systemic Greek banks are using an emergency liquidity tool at the ECB to try and prevent a bank run.  Oil Tanked and Gold spiked. This is 2008 all over again only worse this time.

How this will affect Bitcoin is anyone's guess, but I'm starting to think even my 2.5% margin long was way too premature.

Bank runs mean extreme DEFLATION of national currencies until the central banks ramp up the printing presses, start accepting used toilet paper as collateral and various other forms of counterfeiting.

Wealth is going to evaporate, credit is going to dry up and markets are going to crash with the exception of the safest government bonds (U.S., Swiss and maybe a few others).

I've warned many times for everyone to get their coins (and even fiat) off the exchanges if you aren't going to trade, but now I am saying it may soon be time to get your fiat out of the banks.  



 

I warned the same thing several days ago, telling them how a debt crisis could occur in Russian, Greece and spill over to the Euro zone. But I only received bashing.

Someone even registered a new account to bash me in red ink.

Another financial crisis is due in 1-2 months.

See the decline of oil price, see the decline of stock index, see the depleting of foreign reserves, see the turmoil in the foreign exchange market, etc...

Why aren't you out there shorting the market? 

[itod]

This is my theory, Mark is not A DPR, Ross is. Ross is the mastermind behind SR and when you are dealing with something like SR, its not easy to cashout. So he probably made some sort of money laundering agreement with Mark to help him cashout. Authorities found connection by tracking bitcoin movement and they pushed Mark. Mark is not a hero, he is probably afraid of his own shadow and he probably broke and made an agreement with authorities to reveal who DPR is and agreed to hand out 850 000 BTC for his freedom, to destroy biggest btc exchange and to vanish and never get involved in bitcoin again.

Everything except the last sentence makes sense. If USA government took hold of 850 000 BTC they could not keep it secret and it would be known by now. FBI explanation how they got info on Ross (broken CAPTCHA code) was nonsense, very probable that MagicalTux gave just enough info about Ross' fiat account that helped FBI to track Ross, in exchange for not prosecuting Kerples which was just fine with the FBI, they wanted to cache the right guy.

[BlindMayorBitcorn]

Why are these candles so small??

[Brewins]

Why are these candles so small??

Because the volume is low, what might be a sign we reached bottom or that people don't know what position take, so they just do nothing?