Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Jammalan the Prophet]

Shrooomsie....Cheap coinnsssssssssssssss!!!!!

[camolist]

Someone borrowed 4k to dump into that wall on Finex.
Gotta buy em back at some point.

hmm was going to ask for a source but    602.22   Flash Return Rate (current: 0.0176%)   
was at 4900 coins last i seen so someone(s) sure did borrow a ton of coins recently

[dreamspark]

Someone borrowed 4k to dump into that wall on Finex.
Gotta buy em back at some point.

hmm was going to ask for a source but    602.22   Flash Return Rate (current: 0.0176%)   
was at 4900 coins last i seen so someone(s) sure did borrow a ton of coins recently

http://bfxdata.com/swaphistory/totals.php

[barbs]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J9k_7dklcfg

[damiano]

Someone borrowed 4k to dump into that wall on Finex.
Gotta buy em back at some point.

hmm was going to ask for a source but    602.22   Flash Return Rate (current: 0.0176%)   
was at 4900 coins last i seen so someone(s) sure did borrow a ton of coins recently

http://bfxdata.com/swaphistory/totals.php

Longs are down. I think it was like 15,250,xxx 12 hrs ago

[mestar]

I have noticed too. In fact, nothing in the real world seems to be relevant to bitcoin price.

You hit the nail on the head. 

Bitcoin is all about mining and speculation.  The equilibrium is reached when when the amount of fresh cash for speculation equals the amount paid for the electricity by miners.

[Venusianism]

KK guys y'ready? Put on your Depends & get primed for that sweet ~$120-137 all-in leveraged buy on 'Finex/BTC.SX, it's gonna be =BROWN= <3

Just a few days more, or maybe a couple weeks of sideways around $180-200 first.

Also, ^post above me speaks truth.

[Eamorr]

I guess we could always lower the difficulty (again)?

[inca]

Shorts up another 5k to 19,000. Didnt take long for those to pile on. It is going to take a few more skinnings to make people afraid to short btc.

[damiano]

I guess we could always lower the difficulty (again)?

Difficulty won't drop as fast as you think

[damiano]

Shorts up another 5k to 19,000. Didnt take long for those to pile on. It is going to take a few more skinnings to make people afraid to short btc.

Almost 20k actually

[Sitarow]

Shorts up another 5k to 19,000. Didnt take long for those to pile on. It is going to take a few more skinnings to make people afraid to short btc.

Hope they don't trade with leverage.

[mestar]

Noob question. Is there a way for one to somehow value this instrument for market vs intrinsic value..

If you value it by expected future cash flow, you get an easy answer: zero. 

So, Bitcoin is in a same situation as all the other fiats in the world. 

And it's a little bit worse.  If Bitcoin was a currency of a small country,  all the inflation would be happening outside of the country, and it would be guaranteed to hit the exchanges and influence the exchange rate, pushing it down.

We know this because miners must pay running costs in other currencies, so all those costs must go trough the exchanges.  In this model, exports from Bitcoin country would be speculative buying, or buying to use Bitcoins.  The size of influence of this "inflation as imports" model depends on the depths of orderbooks on bitcoin to fiat exchanges.

So, once the speculative buying stops, Bitcoin has nowhere to go but down, as all the existing bids on the exchanges are eaten and ultimately converted into excess heat.

[barbs]

GAME OVER MAN

GAME OVER

[kodtycoon]

just spent 10$ in bitcoin..

..

..

..

..

aaaaaaand iv earned it back...

[mikeh2]

I wonder if it's the same prick that borrowed 25k btc to short at 300.

[mestar]

Absolutely not. There is no intrinsic value at all, that is, no use value, or, you can not consume a bitcoin leading to its destruction, and at the same time gain something useful. *)

Said otherwise, bitcoin has only money value, and in this regard it is the same as paper money.

It is at the same time pure money, and sound money. This has never existed before in history.

The money value is by definition speculative, all actors at all times have to decide for themselves what value (real world, use value) it is possible to exchange the bitcoins for in the future, far or near.

*) I know, you can prove that you have destroyed bitcoins to prove something...

And how do you think that would be compatible with:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Velocity_of_money

If the network proper is used to transfer a certain total value (measured in USD) over a certain time span, then given the money supply (total bitcoins in circulation, in this case) that transaction usage will provide a lower bound for the USD valuation per coin (assuming transactions are not instantaneous - which they aren't, even if the pure protocol part of it almost is, but there's slow humans involved as well )

I'd call that a pretty good candidate for "fundamental" valuation (even if the exact value of it is up for debate)

Cool.  So, how much is it?

Assume all daily bitcoin volume are usefull transactions, this will give us an upper bound.

[samsonn25]

Noob question. Is there a way for one to somehow value this instrument for market vs intrinsic value.. Any ratio performance driver?Or something similar in a way to 3 financial statement forecasting model for equities or is TA the only way to ride?

If I told you  $ .0000000025  you wouldnt believe me.

If I told you  $1,000,000,000 you probably wouldnt believe me either.

[ChartBuddy]

Coin
Explanation

[mestar]

...  velocity of money ...

What's interesting about money velocity is it's range. Average time bitcoin is held can vary from 10 minutes (confirmation time) to 20 years (retirement money), that is in million times. That is if bitcoin perception in user's mind changes from "hot potato" to "gold", it price will increase million-fold.

Once you decide to hodl, you do not influence the price of bitcoins.  The price is decided by those that trade on the exchanges. 

Currently, those are speculative buyers, speculative sellers,  buying to 'transact', selling to close the 'transact' loop,  and daily $700,000 (or less) that miners have to sell to pay for running costs.

Third and fourth on that list should be equal.  So, once the first and second items on that list become equal, (and there is no reason why speculative buying would have to be higher that speculative selling), the only way the price of bitcoin will go is down.  Miners do have real bills to pay.