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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26373576 times)
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February 11, 2015, 01:28:24 AM

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February 11, 2015, 01:30:48 AM

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February 11, 2015, 01:32:59 AM

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February 11, 2015, 01:33:40 AM

What's up with OKcoins order book on BitcoinWisdom?

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February 11, 2015, 01:34:52 AM


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February 11, 2015, 01:36:54 AM



Why? What would that accomplish? Greece doesn't need a softer currency. Greece desperately needs economic growth.

Yes, but if you look at greeces economy: To be economic-competitive they would have to lower wages (20-30%)... that would lead to civil war. They don't have much export, more import. If they could depreciate their own currency it would attract money and investments, help the export, help the tourismus-industry. If they will stay in Euro they will stay in dependence.

It's not that easy... they would need help in the first time, too. But there will be no economic growth in greece with Euro. They need a more flexible currency. The central bank devalues the Euro and says, the reason is deflation. The real reason is the banking system and to help the export-economy. But that is not enough for greece. Same for the most south-states.
  
 

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The trouble with Greece, politically speaking, is not extremists (Syriza aren't extremists, just idiots). It is corruption.

I did not say extremists, I said "more extreme". And I don't think they are idiots. In my opinion they are very rational and they have the right to speak for the normal Greece-citizens who are suffering. And yes, corruption is a big problem, but it's a problem in the highest EU-circles as well. We live in a time where banks can do anything. They are keeping profit for private and demand that the EU-citizens pay their losses. The money other states send to greece... it was not to rescue Greece, it was to rescue creditor-banks. Germany (just for example) sends money of his citizens to greece and greece sends it back to german banks... I would name that dynamic raid. ;-)

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Greece scores very badly on this, just like every other country in the Balkan area plus Italy. Unless Syriza manages to come down hard on curruption, there isn't a lot of hope.

The whole system is corrupt! Greece is just more obvious. Germany protects a corrupt Siemens-Manager who is accused, but Germany denies to deliver the man to greece (just one example!). Greece is more extreme than most of the other countries, but there is a lot of corruption on every stage.


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The rest of the Union is doing alright and most members are doing their best to improve the situation. While it is natural for people to be sceptical of their government in the midst of a downpour, most Europeans (think 60%+) are still in favour of staying with the union. The percentage is even higher amoung the European youth, so there's hope for the future. The real disagreement is not about the union, but about policy.
Yes... it's about policy, but also about simple maths. It's impossible to pay back the liabilities. Even Germany pays nothing back, not even if the economy is doing very well.

Take a look:
http://www.aref.de/kalenderblatt/mehr/pics/staatsverschuldung_deutschland_entwicklung.png

It nearly doubled the last ten years. And Germany is maybe the "healthiest" country in the EU. The second largest outgoings of the State budget are interest-load.
 
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Actually, most Eurozone countries are doing okay with respect to debts. It's important to keep in mind that it's the relative percentages that count, not the nominal amount. Higher debt isn't a problem if your economy can shoulder it.

Yes... but debts are rising every year and accelerated and the interest is rising as well. The economy would have to grow every year and endless. Impossible. Such a system won't survive and never survived. There are just two scenarios: Massive Inflation or currency collapse (or both at same time).


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The problem with Greece is that it can't. It imports nearly twice as much as it exports and their government spends a whopping 160% of GDP. The economic troubles of any other EU country pale in comparison. Yes; Italy, Ireland and Portugal are still spending too much, but not as crazy much as Greece.
Yes, right. But the main-problem is the lack of wealth-distribution!!! If 1% on this planet holds more then the whole rest, and thats a fact, it can't end well. Thats impossible. It's a worldwide problem, not just of the EU and indeed not just of greece. The USA has the same problems. China as well. The richest become richer, the normal become poorer and the poorest sleeping under bridges. For now there is just one antidote: More debts. And again: It's not just about the countries, it's mostly about the banking-system. The collapse of just one bigger bank can lead to a worldwide economic depression. I just say Lehman... ;-)

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The central banks aren't 'pumping' the markets, by the way. They are transferring wealth from the people to themselves through financial markets. QE is just a very advanced way of taxation. The net effect is cheaper loans for the governments.
There is no contradiction. And yes, cheaper loans for governments but also for the banking system and stock markets. People are wondering why there is no inflation because all of the money... The inflation is in the stock-markets, because most of the money never reaches the real economy.
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February 11, 2015, 01:47:15 AM

Greece is a basket case. It's not all that complicated to understand if you have a solid grounding in economics and human nature. Tsipras and Varoufakis are lefties elected to erase the consequences of a country spending far more than they earned for a prolonged time period. They face an impossible task and they know it, so they are busy blaming others for their obvious impending failure to do what they promised to do. Breaking promises seems to be the Greek national pastime. No sane person would want to negotiate with these bad faith actors even if they weren't deluded socialists.

This is essentially correct. Greece has had a negative trade balance for a very long time now, with no improvements on the horizon.

Greece will get kicked out of the EU. The EU is going to crumble because Greece is far from the only country in such economic dire straits. They are merely the first to default. These sovereign defaults will either take down many large European banks or usher in an era of massive currency devaluation. As nation after nation in the EU goes back to their own national currencies, Germany will find itself in a position of having nobody to sell it's goods to that has any money. Capital will flow in torrents into safe places, first Switzerland and England but later and in greater volume the USA.

This is completely wrong and demonstrates a clear lack of understanding of both European politics and European economics. Our institutions are complex and never straightforward. Even most Europeans don't understand them. You would do well to learn more about them before saying rediculous things like that.

Nevertheless: Greece will not be kicked out of the European Union. They will not leave the Eurozone or be kicked out of it. Leaving either the Eurozone or the Union would not absolve their debts. There will be more negotiations. A settlement will eventually be reached. The EU will continue to heavily subsidize Greece, which Greece is dependent on to survive. Their economy will take a turn for the worse but they'll still be better off than in any other situation.

As a whole, the EU is still running a trade surplus and is as such doing okay. Despite what you believe, Germany amounts to only 20% of the EU's economy and does not dominate European policy. This percentage is actually shrinking as eastern Europe developes. There is no massive currency devalutation nor is there one in the making. There isn't a single serious effort to reinstute national currencies, as not a single country would stand to benefit from it.

There is a whole lot of exaggeration when it comes to European economic and political instability (which is mostly just perception), and it seems you've fallen prey to it.

Euros just today are trading at 0.89/USD. That's a huge devaluation already and will be trading at par soon if this continues. As for defaults, that is effectively what happens when a country devalues it's currency (or re-institutes it's currency) and repays expensive money with cheap money. The U.S. Did it in 1971 when Nixon took us off the gold standard. It's a soft default ( a hard default is when they simply don't repay at all).

I understand that the European financial and political situation is enormously complex, but I don't need to know all the ins and outs to see that a monetary union with no fiscal (much less political) union is untenable given the very different incentives and motivations of the various players. How long will German Taxpayers subsidize the profligacy of the South?  If they take a haircut on Greek bonds, what's to stop the other peripheral countries from demanding the same? It's as if a family has a problem child and if they show tough love the kid will rebel and run away, but if they go soft, they other children will rebel also, (correctly) perceiving the preferential treatment as favoritism.

This latest demand for WWII war reparations is just icing on the cake. Hardly any Germans living bear any responsibility for the Nazis. If I was a German, I'd rather burn my money than give it to Greece. Now supposedly they are cozying up to Russia as well so we can ad "disloyal" to "lazy" and "dishonest" as descriptors of Greeks. Germany and the other creditor nations won't cave. They can't or their electorates will (rightly) boot them out of office.
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February 11, 2015, 01:55:19 AM

BTW anyone with bitcoin addresses before last May (I believe) have access to a number of Altcoin called CLAMS. Basically the devs "sent" 4.5 clams to every btc address (ltc too?) with a balance before May 2014. They are trading @ like 1Euro so you might as well go get your free money even if you scoff at altcoins.
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February 11, 2015, 01:57:31 AM

Greece is a basket case. It's not all that complicated to understand if you have a solid grounding in economics and human nature. Tsipras and Varoufakis are lefties elected to erase the consequences of a country spending far more than they earned for a prolonged time period. They face an impossible task and they know it, so they are busy blaming others for their obvious impending failure to do what they promised to do. Breaking promises seems to be the Greek national pastime. No sane person would want to negotiate with these bad faith actors even if they weren't deluded socialists.

This is essentially correct. Greece has had a negative trade balance for a very long time now, with no improvements on the horizon.

Greece will get kicked out of the EU. The EU is going to crumble because Greece is far from the only country in such economic dire straits. They are merely the first to default. These sovereign defaults will either take down many large European banks or usher in an era of massive currency devaluation. As nation after nation in the EU goes back to their own national currencies, Germany will find itself in a position of having nobody to sell it's goods to that has any money. Capital will flow in torrents into safe places, first Switzerland and England but later and in greater volume the USA.

This is completely wrong and demonstrates a clear lack of understanding of both European politics and European economics. Our institutions are complex and never straightforward. Even most Europeans don't understand them. You would do well to learn more about them before saying rediculous things like that.

Nevertheless: Greece will not be kicked out of the European Union. They will not leave the Eurozone or be kicked out of it. Leaving either the Eurozone or the Union would not absolve their debts. There will be more negotiations. A settlement will eventually be reached. The EU will continue to heavily subsidize Greece, which Greece is dependent on to survive. Their economy will take a turn for the worse but they'll still be better off than in any other situation.

As a whole, the EU is still running a trade surplus and is as such doing okay. Despite what you believe, Germany amounts to only 20% of the EU's economy and does not dominate European policy. This percentage is actually shrinking as eastern Europe developes. There is no massive currency devalutation nor is there one in the making. There isn't a single serious effort to reinstute national currencies, as not a single country would stand to benefit from it.

There is a whole lot of exaggeration when it comes to European economic and political instability (which is mostly just perception), and it seems you've fallen prey to it.

Euros just today are trading at 0.89/USD. That's a huge devaluation already and will be trading at par soon if this continues. As for defaults, that is effectively what happens when a country devalues it's currency (or re-institutes it's currency) and repays expensive money with cheap money. The U.S. Did it in 1971 when Nixon took us off the gold standard. It's a soft default ( a hard default is when they simply don't repay at all).

I understand that the European financial and political situation is enormously complex, but I don't need to know all the ins and outs to see that a monetary union with no fiscal (much less political) union is untenable given the very different incentives and motivations of the various players. How long will German Taxpayers subsidize the profligacy of the South?  If they take a haircut on Greek bonds, what's to stop the other peripheral countries from doing the same? It's as if a family has a problem child and if they show tough love the kid will rebel and run away, but if they go soft, they other children will rebel also, (correctly) perceiving the preferential treatment as favoritism.

This latest demand for WWII war reparations is just icing on the cake. Hardly any Germans living bear any responsibility for the Nazis. If I was a German, I'd rather burn my money than give it to Greece. Now supposedly they are cozying up to Russia as well so we can ad "disloyal" to "lazy" and "dishonest" as descriptors of Greeks. Germany and the other creditor nations won't cave. They can't or their electorates will (rightly) boot them out of office.


Germany is not that strong as many are thinking. "We" are a export-nation. Without a strong export the unemployment will rise hard. It's in german-interest to keep the south in the game because it could be the end of the Euro if south-states would leave. And that's why our government is in a weak position. They won't pay the demand for WW2 but they will make concessions. But, it's just playing time (delay the dynamic). It won't help long. It did not help in the past it won't stop the dynamic.

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February 11, 2015, 02:00:50 AM



Also, to the original poster, instead of your diminutive attitude to 'the lefties', how about acknowledging that the 'righties' that created this mess in the first place are finally displaced from power. Finally there's a change of course for the better.

How do you figure that? "Righties" are usually recognized as Nationalists, most of whom never wanted an EU in the first place. For them, it was an issue of national sovereignty.
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February 11, 2015, 02:00:59 AM

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February 11, 2015, 02:13:08 AM



Germany is not that strong as many are thinking. "We" are a export-nation. Without a strong export the unemployment will rise hard. It's in german-interest to keep the south in the game because it could be the end of the Euro if south-states would leave. And that's why our government is in a weak position. They won't pay the demand for WW2 but they will make concessions. But, it's just playing time (delay the dynamic). It won't help long. It did not help in the past it won't stop the dynamic.

"strong" is a relative term. Compared to a bunch of bankrupt olive-munching crybabies, you are pretty strong. Ship your cars over here and we'll buy 'em if the price is right. Us Yankees love German cars. Seriously, you extended credit to poor countries so they would buy your stuff. That was not a good business decision, but don't compound it by throwing good money after bad. Varoufakis was correct when he said they were broke and can't pay you back.

The debt needs to be written off and the longer it takes to do so, the greater the damage. But Greece has to leave the EU. The other debtor countries will run all over you if you don't stand firm.
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February 11, 2015, 02:22:20 AM

BTW anyone with bitcoin addresses before last May (I believe) have access to a number of Altcoin called CLAMS. Basically the devs "sent" 4.5 clams to every btc address (ltc too?) with a balance before May 2014. They are trading @ like 1Euro so you might as well go get your free money even if you scoff at altcoins.

yes but you have to give away the private key from your address.

And works with LTC and doge too.
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February 11, 2015, 02:49:38 AM

BTW anyone with bitcoin addresses before last May (I believe) have access to a number of Altcoin called CLAMS. Basically the devs "sent" 4.5 clams to every btc address (ltc too?) with a balance before May 2014. They are trading @ like 1Euro so you might as well go get your free money even if you scoff at altcoins.

yes but you have to give away the private key from your address.

And works with LTC and doge too.

You just empty the accounts first.
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February 11, 2015, 02:59:53 AM

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February 11, 2015, 03:17:12 AM

Euros just today are trading at 0.89/USD. That's a huge devaluation already and will be trading at par soon if this continues. As for defaults, that is effectively what happens when a country devalues it's currency (or re-institutes it's currency) and repays expensive money with cheap money. The U.S. Did it in 1971 when Nixon took us off the gold standard. It's a soft default ( a hard default is when they simply don't repay at all).

Yes, if. That does not mean the Eurozone will implode and the EU will tear itself apart, as you sketch it. Both remain viable even below Dollar parity.

I understand that the European financial and political situation is enormously complex, but I don't need to know all the ins and outs to see that a monetary union with no fiscal (much less political) union is untenable given the very different incentives and motivations of the various players.

Actually, that is exactly what you need to do. You can not understand Europe if you do not understand its organisational complexities. The structure of contemporary Europe is unlike anything before and can not be analysed through 'traditional' models. You will grossly misjudge the situation every time. Even European press does not seem to understand Europe, though that's pretty much a given with journalists anyway. I don't know where you get your news, but I will tell you this: American press on Europe is downright idiotic.

How long will German Taxpayers subsidize the profligacy of the South?  If they take a haircut on Greek bonds, what's to stop the other peripheral countries from demanding the same? It's as if a family has a problem child and if they show tough love the kid will rebel and run away, but if they go soft, they other children will rebel also, (correctly) perceiving the preferential treatment as favoritism.

This latest demand for WWII war reparations is just icing on the cake. Hardly any Germans living bear any responsibility for the Nazis. If I was a German, I'd rather burn my money than give it to Greece. Now supposedly they are cozying up to Russia as well so we can ad "disloyal" to "lazy" and "dishonest" as descriptors of Greeks. Germany and the other creditor nations won't cave. They can't or their electorates will (rightly) boot them out of office.

Again: Germany is not alone in this. It is not German taxpayers alone who carry Greece. The 'peripheral countries' are in fact among the least indebted and their economies are growing strong. They are as annoyed by Greece as are the other European countries.

As you said yourself, Syriza's 'demands' and their cuddling with Russia are no more than pointless provocations to make themselves look good to their voters. Their real demands softened up as soon as they got elected.
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February 11, 2015, 03:32:12 AM


Also, to the original poster, instead of your diminutive attitude to 'the lefties', how about acknowledging that the 'righties' that created this mess in the first place are finally displaced from power. Finally there's a change of course for the better.

How do you figure that? "Righties" are usually recognized as Nationalists, most of whom never wanted an EU in the first place. For them, it was an issue of national sovereignty.

Not actually true. Europe counts many pro-EU right-wing parties and just as much leftist nationalist parties. In fact, in western Europe nearly all independist parties (Scotland, Ireland, Catalonia, Basque Country, Wales, Galicia, Bretagne, ...) are located on the left. The only exceptions are the independist parties in Flanders and Northern-Italy, both of which are pro-EU.
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February 11, 2015, 03:35:15 AM

Yup. The hypocrisy of people complaining about bear trolls when those same people were calling for 100k per bitcoin back during the last major run-up gets pretty old after a while.

So spending time on a BITCOIN forum talking about how great it is is the same as spending time on a BITCOIN forum talking about how crap it is and how stupid bitcoiners are?

Don't get me wrong. I don't need an echo chamber in here, but I tend to distinguish between trolls and enthusiasts.

I think you misread my post, so allow me to clarify for you: I did not say "people who talk about how great bitcoin is." I said "those same people were calling for 100k per bitcoin."

Can you see the difference between "I love bitcoin, bitcoin is great" and "OMFG BUY BUY BUY BITCOIN TO 100k! WHAT RETARD IS SELLING RIGHT NOW WE'RE AT 700 AND GOING UP UP UP!"

If you say nothing but the former, then sure, get pissed when someone responds with "bitcoin fucking sucks you stupid asshole go die in a fire." But if you spammed the latter during the huge rise -- which have always historically preceded big drops -- you can't be mad when someone goes "DOWN DOWN DOWN BITCOIN TO 10!" in the middle of a plummet. Well, you can, but you'd be an enormous hypocrite.

Think about it: both sides know they're full of shit and cannot even come close to guaranteeing their assertions, but they will speak as if their opinion is absolutely infallible and inevitable. Ultimately, I think that is okay. IMO it's fine to bullshit. I mean, if you shorted, for example, you obviously think price is going down, so all you're doing by calling for $10 bitcoins is being hyperbolic (nobody can reasonably expect $10 bitcoins in the next month or two, just like nobody could reasonable expect 100k coins within a couple of months when we are at 900).

Hyperbole doesn't annoy me, but hypocrisy does -- in this case, bullshitting, then getting mad when someone bullshits from the opposite side.

Not to say that there are no bear trolls -- I imagine a lot of them are prodding with sticks to gauge sentiment rather than straight-up getting paid -- but yeah no doubt there definitely are. But if you truly believe in bitcoin, and still strongly believe it's going to skyrocket, you would be patient and wait for that to happen so you can laugh in their faces about it. The fact that people respond so caustically to the trolls -- whereas during the bull market they were laughed off -- tells you something about the changing sentiment and lingering doubt, which could mean there is still a ways to go as that doubt turns into despair when those final bulls turn bear.

Ok, I guess I see a distinction between enthusiasts, traders who talk their book, traders who talk their book by trolling, and just sadist asshole sociopath trolls. The two former I don't mind, the two latter annoys me and usually end up on my ignore list. The problem is probably where the line is drawn with regards to the two in the middle. And if people bother to distinguish between the two latter. To call the numbnuts who were quoting the winkledinkles' 40k remarks over and over again, trolls, seems a bit far fetched. But I haven't paid attention so they might have been really annoying. I tend to call for moonshots myself, but it is really just a commentary on my despair.
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February 11, 2015, 03:47:08 AM

bids are very thin to 216  Huh

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