Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ChartBuddy]

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[Sitarow]

[camolist]

Well if you compare the volume with other exchanges... If you ask me, they are doing really well. You need to know that the volume was high in last month.

i'm not denying they are doing good

just wondering what is "rising"

they have had consistent volume since launch..if anything  the last week has been slightly lower

[Fatman3001]

AtTenTiOn ATteNtIOn:

http://new.livestream.com/spacex/events/3783845

TO TEH MOoN!

Now let's see if they can land that mofo

[aztecminer]

what is your opinion on grexit? is it going to happen? will they let us leave eurozone? and if so, will this affect the price of bitcoin?

Nobody wants a grexit, not even Syriza. But something has to give soon, if Greece gets IMF on their side it might be difficult for the creditor nations to resist some kind of debt relief, but what form and what size is impossible to know right now.

Grexit will happen because there are three outcomes and grexit is the not the worst case scenario for either side. Possibilities:
1)Greek bank run with no bail-out leading to collapse of economy and government
2) Writedowns/write offs of Greek debt leading several other countries to re-negotiate austerity terms and massive losses to sovereign debt-holders.
3)  Grexit.

It's going to happen. The only real question is "when?"

the EU's new round of QE is a round of desperation. The problem seems to be that the greeks are publicly admitting they are bankrupt and they cannot pay their debt. If they continue the road they are on with austerities then the greek people will suffer for years and years and possibly even more years. If the greeks default then everyone holding their debt will lose. If the EU gives in to restructuring greek debt without austerities then other EU countries will want the same treatment. If the greek exit the EU then we will could start to see a stampede out of the EU by other countries facing the same problems. I think we are watching the start of the world economic crisis.

i am from Greece, and i can tell you that: it was wrong to enter euro zone back in 2000 because books have been cooked...stock market at that time if you remember went crazy and lot of people lost almost everything....after prime minister was saying in the news people play in the stockmarket...and after we entered the euro...this was a game they played and they played well...after that we had Olympic Games.. and after the US Crisis and today they named Greek Crisis and we all know it's not a crisis of Greece, after 5 years that they are "saving" us they putted us deeper into crisis and they continue... this will move to Italy, Spain and eventualy all over the Euro zone. You know we say here in Greece....if you hear bad things for your neighbour...wait yours soon.....

But even if we accept that WE MUST stay in euro zone and play this game.. do you know that German pays as we speak pensions for world crimes to a lot of people in Israel etc?? and this in not past like they said about the loans that have to pay back to Greece... So they want us to pay more debts that 5 years now are getting bigger and bigger but the strong German country can make wars? destroy people and hole nations and not pay anything back??

sorry for my English i am not a native speaker but i think you can all read it easily.

that was a great olympics show greece......

[ChartBuddy]

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Explanation

[GaliX]

http://uk.businessinsider.com/euro-rally-greece-report-2015-2?r=US


Short the Euro and buy longs in Bitcoin.

[Mota]

But even if we accept that WE MUST stay in euro zone and play this game.. do you know that German pays as we speak pensions for world crimes to a lot of people in Israel etc?? and this in not past like they said about the loans that have to pay back to Greece... So they want us to pay more debts that 5 years now are getting bigger and bigger but the strong German country can make wars? destroy people and hole nations and not pay anything back??

sorry for my English i am not a native speaker but i think you can all read it easily.

.... I love German bashing, since I am from Germany myself I can relate to some extent (some of us are pretty unhappy with our current government). But you seem to misunderstand some things:

Your own government was full of corruption and has been mismanaging your country for the better part of 30 years, we had nothing to do witht that (remember this?: In 2011, it was reported that Greece was paying pensions to 4,500 dead and then as well to 40,000 fraudulent claimants who were being asked to return the money but not prosecuted, even though they had been stealing from the state for more than 20 years in some cases. - See more at: http://greece.greekreporter.com/2013/08/17/greece-still-paying-dead-pensioners/#sthash.oObK837v.dpuf).


It's understandable that you are searching for arguments to get Germany to cut some of the debts, but the warcrime reparations payment is laughable at best. Do you even know how much Germany paid after WW1? 67,7 Billion Goldmark (~225B € with todays prices). I won't start with WW2 because it's a lot more difficult, but trust me that the damages paid were some orders of magnitude higher if calculated with current prices.

Just because Greece is nearly bancrupt does not mean you can just pull some 70 year old reparations out of your pockets in order to get by. The sad thing is, you are bancrupt even with all the help you got, Ireland etc. got the same help and are stabilized, but your country has just so much debt in the private sector - even with a cut in eu debt - you still won't be able to pay back the private creditors.

[kurious]

BJA is not far off.

Grexit, according to many respected analysts is looking a 50/50 bet right now.

The turmoil and uncertainty in the whole Euro experiment this will cause (and uncertainty worldwide) is already being factored in by smart money.

If any capital flight was likely to benefit BTC we would already be seeing it.

If your banks were about to potentially collapse, or your capital was at risk from your country's banks possible liquidity crisis, wouldn't you already be looking for ways to keep it safe, or at least move it?

The money is already nervous.  Bullish as I am (long term) I don't see evidence growing that BTC will be the beneficiary of this crisis.

When Cyprus happened, BTC had not lost so much value and had so many scams tarnish it.  

When Greece happens, if it does - the money will not take more risk, it is already seeking safety.  And right now, this is not what BTC appears to offer.

[GaliX]

BJA is not far off.

Grexit, according to many respected analysts is looking a 50/50 bet right now.

The turmoil and uncertainty in the whole Euro experiment this will cause (and uncertainty worldwide) is already being factored in by smart money.

If any capital flight was likely to benefit BTC we would already be seeing it.

If your banks were about to potentially collapse, or your capital was at risk from your country's banks possible liquidity crisis, wouldn't you already be looking for ways to keep it safe, or at least move it?

The money is already nervous.  Bullish as I am (long term) I don't see evidence growing that BTC will be the beneficiary of this crisis.

When Cyprus happened, BTC had not lost so much value and had so many scams tarnish it.  

When Greece happens, if it does - the money will not take more risk, it is already seeking safety.  And right now, this is not what BTC appears to offer.

well BTC can't be printed out and is not controlled by Governments or anybody. If you just take these aspects it's fucking damn safe. Even the Gold-Market is super manipulated. There is much much more Gold traded on exchanges then ever mined. If you just see it from a price perspective, yes Gold is the better option over Bitcoin.


But the Greece situation is much bigger. It's likely the Euro will collapse as a whole if Greece leaves the Euro. Bank are leveraged 3-5% and they could lose these 3-5% over night. On top there will be a Bank run and since all the Banks are connected it will have a cascading effect. The hole Banking sector worldwide will likely burn if Greece is finally viewed as Bankrupted.

Ireland already said, they want the same deal as Greece. So there you have your second fire burning if Greece leaves and goes bankrupt. Italy and Spain are also running towards an end of the current suppression politics.


I am telling your, once there is a real Bankrun in Greece it's going to cascade fast and Banks will be closed with a lot of money lost by the customers. (fractional reserve endtimes)
It doesn't matter where you have your Bank account in Europ your money will be in dangerous if this hole thing gets rolling.

On top I don't think Grexit is a 50/50 bet. He clearly said no more fishy deals. They don't want any money from the EU or anybody anymore. Either they accept that Greece is Bankrupt and help them or they leave the Euro.

[Specular]

Chiming in on the Greek situation.

One of the interesting things I have learned over the last few days has been how the bailout money was actually used.

Just like in 2008, the bailouts were designed to prevent a broader financial panic involving the banks. Of the 230 billion euros that Greece received, only 11% actually stayed in Greece to finance government activity. The rest was used to pay back old bondholders (mainly Greek and European Banks) and make interest payments.

Instead of defaulting 5 years ago, the Greeks were strong-armed into a bailout designed to prevent panic. Then the crisis spread to other countries, and the EU has muddled through from one crisis to the next for 5 years. After losing 25% of GDP, a chronic unemployment rate above 26% and with debt at 170 debt/GDP ratios, the Greeks are screwed and, more importantly, they have nothing to lose. They either default and possibly leave the Euro, or they stick with the horrible depression they have been in for 5yrs.

The difference is that if they default today, German and Italian banks will not take a hit, BUT if they default (and especially if they leave the Euro), the financial and political ramifications are impossible to predict. It could be the EU's Lehman moment.

I am surprised that the Germans are letting this get so unpleasant. The amount the Greeks want is nothing compared to the strategic importance of Greece as a NATO ally. They must be seriously worried about the signal they would send to Spain and Italy if they agree to let Greece write off some debt. The political environment in Europe is turning against Germany - the real wild-card in this situation are Austerity-weary voters.

Source for the bailout stats (Martin Wolf of the FT)- http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/44c56806-a556-11e4-ad35-00144feab7de.html#axzz3RNvpcnSg

[ChartBuddy]

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Explanation

[Erdogan]

it's pretty loathsome behavior to hope for economic collapses -- with no regard for the lives it would destroy -- just so you can (maybe) make a few extra bucks off your BTC.

Either the Greeks suffer or all of Europe suffers. I prefer less suffering to more suffering so I don't see what's loathsome about that.

Oh spare me. Of all of you discussing it, I am confident you are the one who would give the least fucks about who suffers or how much as long as you think it will help you make a few extra bucks.

So nobody suffers under the current system, huh? I think some do.

Could the G8 come together and agree on no more money printing, no more government loaning, no more banker bailouts, no more corporate welfare, no more welfare state, no more taxpayer deposit guarantees? A soft landing? I think not.

In fact there is no option for a soft landing, and a reset sometime in the future is unavoidable. A crash would be painful, but continuing the current system, we can expect lower living standard, which mean freezing, hunger, sickness, war, AND a larger crash later.

So I think wishing for a crash as soon as possible is the most altruistic attitude.
(Not being altruistic myself, as I think it is a philosophy of death).

[ChartBuddy]

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Explanation

[octaft]

it's pretty loathsome behavior to hope for economic collapses -- with no regard for the lives it would destroy -- just so you can (maybe) make a few extra bucks off your BTC.

Either the Greeks suffer or all of Europe suffers. I prefer less suffering to more suffering so I don't see what's loathsome about that.

Oh spare me. Of all of you discussing it, I am confident you are the one who would give the least fucks about who suffers or how much as long as you think it will help you make a few extra bucks.

So nobody suffers under the current system, huh? I think some do.

Could the G8 come together and agree on no more money printing, no more government loaning, no more banker bailouts, no more corporate welfare, no more welfare state, no more taxpayer deposit guarantees? A soft landing? I think not.

In fact there is no option for a soft landing, and a reset sometime in the future is unavoidable. A crash would be painful, but continuing the current system, we can expect lower living standard, which mean freezing, hunger, sickness, war, AND a larger crash later.

So I think wishing for a crash as soon as possible is the most altruistic attitude.
(Not being altruistic myself, as I think it is a philosophy of death).

Do you realize that nothing you said applies to any statements you quoted from me?

My original point was about hoping for economic collapses in general, because you think it will make BTC price rise. It was not meant to be a commentary on the Greece situation, and I didn't accuse anyone in particular of anything except BJA. Judging his character by his posts that I've read, I stand by my opinion that his only interest in Greece is the possibility that he can line his pockets from the situation, but that's still not actually a commentary on the Greece situation. I'll leave the back and forth discussion of that to the resident armchair economists.

[Erdogan]

it's pretty loathsome behavior to hope for economic collapses -- with no regard for the lives it would destroy -- just so you can (maybe) make a few extra bucks off your BTC.

Either the Greeks suffer or all of Europe suffers. I prefer less suffering to more suffering so I don't see what's loathsome about that.

Oh spare me. Of all of you discussing it, I am confident you are the one who would give the least fucks about who suffers or how much as long as you think it will help you make a few extra bucks.

So nobody suffers under the current system, huh? I think some do.

Could the G8 come together and agree on no more money printing, no more government loaning, no more banker bailouts, no more corporate welfare, no more welfare state, no more taxpayer deposit guarantees? A soft landing? I think not.

In fact there is no option for a soft landing, and a reset sometime in the future is unavoidable. A crash would be painful, but continuing the current system, we can expect lower living standard, which mean freezing, hunger, sickness, war, AND a larger crash later.

So I think wishing for a crash as soon as possible is the most altruistic attitude.
(Not being altruistic myself, as I think it is a philosophy of death).

Do you realize that nothing you said applies to any statements you quoted from me?

My original point was about hoping for economic collapses in general, because you think it will make BTC price rise. It was not meant to be a commentary on the Greece situation, and I didn't accuse anyone in particular of anything except BJA. Judging his character by his posts that I've read, I stand by my opinion that his only interest in Greece is the possibility that he can line his pockets from the situation, but that's still not actually a commentary on the Greece situation. I'll leave the back and forth discussion of that to the resident armchair economists.

Pathetic. Your moralism is unethical. It brings death. Bring on the crash. Buy moar coins.

[octaft]

Pathetic. Your moralism is unethical. It brings death. Bring on the crash. Buy moar coins.

I heard billyjoe is down for the 69 you're offering. Word is his nickname is BJ-A+ around his neck of the woods, so you better get on that, quick.

[Wary]

Why am I not surprised one iota by "Libertarian writings."

Anyway, so by "immune to poison" you mean "think critically about what you're reading." You could have just said that. Why do libertarians have to be so hyperbolic?

Because "think critically about what you're reading" isn't strong enough. At least, it doesn't seem to work in your case. Everybody thinks he thinks critically. While in fact, most of us just cherry-pick "confirmations" of our opinions and "critically" ignore refutations. So instead of fixing their world view distortions, such "critical thinking" is increasing them. That's why I've recommended MYOB.  And that's why "immune to poison" is better than "critical thinking". Everybody believes he is able to think critically, but few believe they immune to poisons.

Are you saying you think it's "poison" unless you agree with it? And only people who agree with you are able to think critically? The rest of us are a bunch of mindless lumps just waiting to accept the first lie that someone tells us?

I think you ought to critically analyze whether or not you're guilty of the same exact thing you're accusing others of.

Why are you putting your words in my mouth? I'm saying exactly what I'm saying, rather than what you believe I should be saying/thinking. BTW, that's good illustration of typical "critical thinking". You haven't seen what I said, but have seen what I haven't.

I haven't said I immune. Everybody is susceptible, to some extend.
In fact, I am really interested in finding how distorted is my world picture.
Did you asked that question about yourself? Do you have any metrics/method to find it out?

The best metrics I'm aware of is Ideological Turing Test. Unfortunately, I haven't found the actual test. If you can find it, I would be glad to measure myself with it, and compare my results with yours. Until them, all I have is an anecdotal evidence that libertarians, on average, are doing better on this test than their opponents.

I didn't put words in your mouth. Putting words in your mouth would be "so you're saying X" whereas I phrased it "are you saying X?" They are more loaded questions (kinda not exactly but definitely not straight-up putting words in your mouth, since they allow you to clarify and respond in the negative). It's a dick move in and of itself, I'll give you that - then again, so is using a strikeout on a condescending statement, so all's fair, IMO.

Anecdotal evidence is useless (and sometimes even harmful), so I ignore that out of hand.

Ideological Turing Test is mostly irrelevant here, as I haven't shared my opinions with you in this discussion beyond the fact that I disagree with yours. I will say that I find the fact that you think we could even take this test - with you being mostly unaware of my opinions - may suggest that you might be too quick to dismiss those who disagree with you. Either that, or you think their viewpoints are so simplistic that they can be summed up accurately without knowing much about the viewpoints of the particular individual you are engaging.

OK, we both had fair share of condescending statements. Let's not discuss which ones are condescendier.

About your views. I don't know your views, but I do know they are wrong
Why? Because of "Why am I not surprised one iota".
The only thing you get from the list I gave you (BTW, by your own request) is confirmations of your views. When new information fits exactly into your world view, it's clear evidence of you closing your eyes on some part of it. As you've said it yourself, "ignore out of hand". Because anecdotal, because irrelevant, because whatever. Any excuse would do when one doesn't want to test his beliefs.
A world picture, that is build by looking for confirmations only can be correct only by miracle.

tl; dr: I may be wrong, but you are.

[ChartBuddy]

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Explanation

[octaft]

OK, we both had fair share of condescending statements. Let's not discuss which ones are condescendier.

About your views. I don't know your views, but I do know they are wrong
Why? Because of "Why am I not surprised one iota".
The only thing you get from the list I gave you (BTW, by your own request) is confirmations of your views. When new information fits exactly into your world view, it's clear evidence of you closing your eyes on some part of it. As you've said it yourself, "ignore out of hand". Because anecdotal, because irrelevant, because whatever. Any excuse would do when one doesn't want to test his beliefs.

tl; dr: I may be wrong, but you are.

So basically, yeah, you are guilty of doing exactly what you accuse others of doing.

Honestly, I can't believe you can sit there with a straight face and say "my side is doing better, anecdotally" and think I'm the idiot for disregarding the statement. But of course, I'm sure you've analyzed all that "critically," and are not at all biased because they agree with you or anything.