Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[derpinheimer]

KeyserSozeMC skimmed my post history once. Called me 'that meme guy'

Have a lovely week Bitcoiners. I hope.

No you dont 

[silverfuture]

Your point?

Mine is, Bitcoin and the Drama it generates was funny and it got funnier.

It has it's moments but I don't think other's real pain or loss is funny really. There are lots of good things to laugh about in life and I enjoy a lot of that. It seems somewhat sick to laugh at certain things and there are some interesting notions on the psychology of schadenfreude lately.

http://www.livescience.com/17398-schadenfreude-affirmation.html

http://www.sciencemag.org/content/323/5916/937.abstract

But, carry on and don't let me tell you what to enjoy.

[Cconvert2G36]

There are still veterans from 2010-12 who need to be shaken out, or at least forcibly diversified. The Jan 14 shakeout was part of that diversification, not sure it was the last. All that considered, as a speculative bet on a new technology... you could do worse than the good ol' BTC.

Oh, really? And what if Big Money doesn't want to wait that long? What if  a new innovation sparks a grass roots recovery? There's as much danger in waiting for the optimal time to buy as there is in waiting for the optimal time to sell.

I'm one of those veterans and the reason I have survived this long is because of ideological commitment, not money. You could be waiting a long time if you think you can shake me out.

Don't take it personally, there are many that were in for single digits, some double, some triple. I was talking on a general basis, a portion of those holders need to diversify, we've been watching that for 14 months.

I treat it as a binary bet, all or nothing, as long as you can stomach nothing, you've hit the minimum height for this ride.

The possibility of a positive outcome is the only reason the longs are here, just like a negative outcome is the only reason the shorts and trolls are here. (Setting aside certain mental health conditions, which are evident on both sides.)

[Chef Ramsay]

Ok, I'm gonna step into this whirlpool and note that the likes of silverfurtune and billyjoeallen have been real intellectual boons to this thread. The trolls have went into hibernation when the bosses have taken hold of the reigns. Primarily, Mr SF ad BJA have made their points and are moving on to their next ones, soon. I just want to say thx to the bosses in due time.

[octaft]

billyjoeallen have been real intellectual boons to this thread.

Was it the racism, the sexism, or just the ignorant bigotry in general that sold you on him?

[lyth0s]

If this bear market has been largely caused by Chinese miners that can do nothing with bitcoins except sell them, then it is likely to end when one of two things happen: Either they run out of stockpiled coins to sell over and above coins they are mining, or when the Chinese economy gets so bad that they realize that the killer app is to sneak out of the country with them.

Right now Bitcoins seems to be an answer in search of a problem: Most obviously capital controls in a world where capital is still largely mobile. When this situation changes, it is likely to be sudden and swift although the time frame is difficult to predict with any accuracy.

Mined coins are not that much, 3600 per day and the Chinese probably only have less than 35% share of that so thats only 1200 coins per days assuming they sell all of them every day.  

There is more belief of short traders and options sellers using leverage.

BTC3600 is not that much   that's like additional $850,000 sell pressure every single day. BTC is not that liquid to easily sustain that.

But some relief will come in 18months

The most predictable factor in bitcoin price is the supply. Halving is already factored into people's calculations of future value, just as the upcoming U.S. Marshal's auction is.

Most traders nowadays are short sighted and look at daily/weekly and MAYBE monthly gains. They are not calculating the EV of 18 months into the future....those people are called holders.

Problem with day traders is that they can easily lose out on fast market changes, such as not having any bitcoins when the price goes up 20% in one day. Take Newbie for an example, a few months ago the bitcoin price started to go up and he shorted at what he thought the peak was. Then the price marched right on past that point...and he shorted again....and then price kept going up (maybe a total of an $80 bitcoin price increase from baseline). Huge losses for a guy that supposedly losses hundreds of dollars for every dollar change of bitcoin price.

Day traders and bears are going to get wrecked when the bitcoin price turns around, until then they can keep accumulating more fiat

[Chef Ramsay]

billyjoeallen have been real intellectual boons to this thread.

Was it the racism, the sexism, or just the ignorant bigotry in general that sold you on him?

Dude, none of what you allege about him is correct in this recent period. I'm sure he stands on his own two feet w/o my sentiments. However, you're flanking the wrong enemy on this and purely just shooting yourself in the face on this.  Just think you're a little off-base on your assessment, sorry for saying.

[ChartBuddy]

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Explanation

[octaft]

billyjoeallen have been real intellectual boons to this thread.

Was it the racism, the sexism, or just the ignorant bigotry in general that sold you on him?

Dude, none of what you allege about him is correct in this recent period.

I mean how recent are we talking?

The reason I never learned whatever tribal grunts is your native tongue is because I don't have to. English speakers rule the planet. And I'm drunk too so back at ya, you foreign fucking foreigner fuck.

That's pretty recent, and not even close to the most offensive thing I've ever seen him post.

[Cconvert2G36]

billyjoeallen have been real intellectual boons to this thread.

Was it the racism, the sexism, or just the ignorant bigotry in general that sold you on him?

Dude, none of what you allege about him is correct in this recent period.

I mean how recent are we talking?

The reason I never learned whatever tribal grunts is your native tongue is because I don't have to. English speakers rule the planet. And I'm drunk too so back at ya, you foreign fucking foreigner fuck.

That's pretty recent, and not even close to the most offensive thing I've ever seen him post.

Not saying you're wrong or right, but include context. Or ignore it all because it is wholly meaningless.

english is my third language and I am drunk .

now, unless I am speaking to sorosh, goat or mircea gtfo you poor, english centric troll with your ad hominem attack.

Your critique is so stale it only merits an ad hominem attack. The reason I never learned whatever tribal grunts is your native tongue is because I don't have to. English speakers rule the planet. And I'm drunk too so back at ya, you foreign fucking foreigner fuck.

[ChartBuddy]

Coin
Explanation

[lyth0s]

billyjoeallen have been real intellectual boons to this thread.

Was it the racism, the sexism, or just the ignorant bigotry in general that sold you on him?

Dude, none of what you allege about him is correct in this recent period.

I mean how recent are we talking?

The reason I never learned whatever tribal grunts is your native tongue is because I don't have to. English speakers rule the planet. And I'm drunk too so back at ya, you foreign fucking foreigner fuck.

That's pretty recent, and not even close to the most offensive thing I've ever seen him post.

Not saying you're wrong or right, but include context. Or ignore it all because it is wholly meaningless.

english is my third language and I am drunk .

now, unless I am speaking to sorosh, goat or mircea gtfo you poor, english centric troll with your ad hominem attack.

Your critique is so stale it only merits an ad hominem attack. The reason I never learned whatever tribal grunts is your native tongue is because I don't have to. English speakers rule the planet. And I'm drunk too so back at ya, you foreign fucking foreigner fuck.

Context is everything. Thank you for being objective on the matter. Octaft is a semi-troll who may be making it to my ignore list at some point in the near future. Some of what he says is reasonable, most of it is not.

[ChartBuddy]

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Explanation

[JorgeStolfi]

Miners may have to start selling at some point if they are no longer able to service debt with other income streams but a market order has a huge difference in this market compared to a limit order. A miner would NEVER dump 5k coins in single market order. It causes too much slippage and the market seems to stabilize at a lower price after a big downward movement. It's not miners causing these major movements.

In the supposed BitPay input wallet , some of the largest deposits (up to ~4500 BTC) came from KnC:

2014-02-18 08:24:31 a6b640f6b3ccc0a88730797b925a558f25daf8e6390636861583246a810601a3   +4496.11720000 KnCMiner.com
2013-11-18 10:46:54 085b09cfbe1d6f5214842ded9d8d2a50e467a6b51f82fbdaefecc63e7d2b2ebb   +2900.00000000 KnCMiner.com
2014-02-24 16:09:50 0621cddd70fb86f74adda088209831516e6ab9384663fd517bc7fbee7a12f30b   +1758.82190000 KnCMiner.com
2014-02-27 14:38:24 7396ca676a238a21fb45f0b96d6191053b25daef0e3e56ad2d54c7cd46442479   +1420.45130000 KnCMiner.com
2014-01-06 15:00:31 fe378b97f1f5dc4dbf3ee6059c6f226988c090eb149a90a66baf0bf5c7a0fb9e   +1375.69510000 KnCMiner.com
2013-11-23 17:40:08 c61b49f50a6fd7112747375f4cd14cde6e4a2c28d9b88b0ed64b838087fc258d   +1000.00000000 KnCMiner.com
2014-01-03 07:20:58 a53e12545d054126d422fdb4f664107843ba5aa2555d9bdb1f759631febb82cd    +888.67670000 KnCMiner.com
2014-01-13 10:34:52 fb49859a319462afccea88d50ef0238ada66679ebbb64f172dc5a6dcf57fa41e    +849.35700000 KnCMiner.com
2014-01-22 16:06:12 fc0c75776779c48ba4b6fd843848ae7b26ab56263c99aaf0024e4c9056c5a779    +672.85790000 KnCMiner.com
2014-01-21 06:29:42 1e89707414df189934e21ef7c200ef7833e2867a062e4084c9a07636d5d0fa3d    +497.57430000 KnCMiner.com
2014-01-27 07:31:57 98435bdcabee4aa43d951f8f4d402fa61ae0006a8388aba49baae3e74af2d8fc    +493.60870000 KnCMiner.com
2014-02-20 08:13:24 026f92da78db19fe561a05f0a77104619783452a8f24a4efed8719abd9553a95    +460.31630000 KnCMiner.com
2014-01-27 16:44:32 4570a7a8ae134099def4b6c26c79c8f90b8c754339dafb941ac508835956e1b0    +182.79950000 KnCMiner.com

Most of the coins that are deposited into that wallet are sent by BitPay to exchanges like Bitstamp to be sold.  Presumably, those deposits are KnC paying their bills (electricity, equipment, etc.).  BitPay's TOS forbid clients to use them just to sell; the destination of the dollars must be a merchant of some sort. (Otherwise theyr would not be a "payment processor" but a "money transmitter" and they don't have licenses for that.)

Perhaps more evidence of miners selling could be found by scanning the wallets of the exchanges and other payment processors.

I don't think we need to ponder whether miners sell their coins or not.  Imagine that each miner Joe is actually two persons, Joe Miner and Joe Investor.  Each day, Joe Miner sells all the coins that he mines, pays his bills, deposits the rest in a bank account, and goes to bed.  Joe Investor then takes over; he may or may not take some money from the bank to buy bitcoins.   

Mathematically, that is equivalent to a single person Joe who may or may not keep some of the coins that he mines.  However, mentally  separating the two personas makes it easier to see that a miner is just like any other investor, when it comes to holding coins.  Specifically, Joe is as likely to hold 100 of his mined as a random investor with 23'000 USD in hand is likely to buy 100 coins with that money. 

[Cconvert2G36]

My ignore list stands and will stand at 0.

This forum has a proud tradition of good trolls. A check on hyperbole and dare I say... euphoria.

ElectricMucus
Proudhon
Walsoraj Edit: Jaroslaw, been too long
NotLambchop

The pretenders/socks are less funny.

If the coin fails, they get "lels". If not, they fade away, it's cheap entertainment.

If you can't take some criticism and hilarity about your cryptocoin investment, you're in the wrong game.

[billyjoeallen]

Ok, I'm gonna step into this whirlpool and note that the likes of silverfurtune and billyjoeallen have been real intellectual boons to this thread. The trolls have went into hibernation when the bosses have taken hold of the reigns. Primarily, Mr SF ad BJA have made their points and are moving on to their next ones, soon. I just want to say thx to the bosses in due time.

Thanks, Man. Please don't feel the need to defend me against charges of racism, sexism or whatever the crimethink de jour is. Whatever my moral flaws, the reason why I advocate Bicoin is because it is money that doesn't need force or coercion in order to function.

Which would y'all rather have as a neighbor, a racist sexist homophobic who believes in the NonAggression Principle or an egalitarian who wants to make everyone equal by sticking guns in their faces?

Freedom means you have to put up with some unpleasant people with unpleasant ideas, but you don't have to put up with threats of violence by those who claim to be peaceful while having the State do their dirty work for them.

[ChartBuddy]

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Explanation

[calme]

I reckon the not having a gun in my face would be a pretty good choice. I don't care what kind of Devil worshipping or blood orgies they're having on the sidewalk in front of my house. Easy enough to walk around them so long as they're not shooting at me.

[silverfuture]

My ignore list stands and will stand at 0.

This forum has a proud tradition of good trolls. A check on hyperbole and dare I say... euphoria.

ElectricMucus
Proudhon
Walsoraj
notlambchop

The pretenders/socks are less funny.

If the coin fails, they get "lels". If not, they fade away, it's cheap entertainment.

If you can't take some criticism and hilarity about your cryptocoin investment, you're in the wrong game.

No, there is one on that list that does deserve ignoring by me at least (and many others claim to as well). Notlambchop shits the threads up at a feverish pace catapulting violent statist fiat delusional propaganda here in a dedicated bitcoin forum in almost every thread possible trying to scare the bejeezers out of anyone who might listen. That does not constitute "A check on hyperbole and dare I say... euphoria"

A check on hyperbole would be reasonable and polite discourse, not that.  I probably should ignore more people than I do but I reserve that privilege for the truly daft and insane and don't even want to glance at their cringe worthy and unfunny shit anymore.

BTW, notlambchop pulled a hall monitor move to get a post with this image removed by the moderators recently for being "off topic". butthurt much? Lel indeed!



 Shameful indeed.  

Ok, I'm gonna step into this whirlpool and note that the likes of silverfurtune and billyjoeallen have been real intellectual boons to this thread. The trolls have went into hibernation when the bosses have taken hold of the reigns. Primarily, Mr SF ad BJA have made their points and are moving on to their next ones, soon. I just want to say thx to the bosses in due time.

Thanks, Man. Please don't feel the need to defend me against charges of racism, sexism or whatever the crimethink de jour is. Whatever my moral flaws, the reason why I advocate Bicoin is because it is money that doesn't need force or coercion in order to function.

Which would y'all rather have as a neighbor, a racist sexist homophobic who believes in the NonAggression Principle or an egalitarian who wants to make everyone equal by sticking guns in their faces?

Freedom means you have to put up with some unpleasant people with unpleasant ideas, but you don't have to put up with threats of violence by those who claim to be peaceful while having the State do their dirty work for them.

Me too on the NAP Billybob..it's revenge of the nerds part two !

Thanks Ramsay, you are usually so mean a boss on tv

[octaft]

Not saying you're wrong or right, but include context. Or ignore it all because it is wholly meaningless.

I don't see how any of that makes the originally quoted statement any less xenophobic.

Whatever my moral flaws

It's less "moral flaws" and more "stunning amounts of ignorance."

Save your Ayn Rand bullshit, too. I've said it before and I'll say it again: the last time a bunch of people followed the teachings of a shitty fiction writer, the world got Scientology.