Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[molecular]

1. I am not advocating buying at the top of the rally, I am advocating buying right now. When it goes past $500, you are probably too late.
2. $10 million is nothing to hedge funds, retirement funds, etc. There will be be buying pressure right after the auction and long after.
3. People are going to be sick that they missed out on buying bitcoin at these prices. My advice is to buy what you can afford or forever regret. You are lucky to even know what it is at this point.

Well, the price being 252$, it means that everybody who who owns bitcoin thinks that they are worth more than 245$; but, on the other hand, everybody in the world who has some money to spare thinks that 1 BTC is not worth 255$.   The latter think that the changes of it being worth more than 1300$ anytime in the next few years are much less than 20%.

You're forgetting the large group of people who do not think about Bitcoin price at all.

Like the folks on r/bitcoin who scream "to the moon" during pumps but argue that "price doesn't matter" during dumps?

No, the people that are just not interested enough to care about Bitcoin at this point.

[billyjoeallen]

Where's my weekend discount? Or is this the weekend discount?

[JorgeStolfi]

You're forgetting the large group of people who do not think about Bitcoin price at all.

You mean, those who will buy bitcoin for ideological reasons, at any price? They must all have all run out of money, because they are not buying for 255$, either.

[havecoch]

You're forgetting the large group of people who do not think about Bitcoin price at all.

You mean, those who will buy bitcoin for ideological reasons, at any price? They must all have all run out of money, because they are not buying for 255$, either.

Well they are mostly people, who also don't hold much and is the reason why they dont care.

[ChartBuddy]

Coin
Explanation

[billyjoeallen]

You're forgetting the large group of people who do not think about Bitcoin price at all.

You mean, those who will buy bitcoin for ideological reasons, at any price? They must all have all run out of money, because they are not buying for 255$, either.

I have a tradeable balance of $35,000. I'm not out money or even close. That doesn't even count fiat I have in my bank account. I'm just waiting for a little bit of retracement to maximally punish any weekend dumpers.

[oda.krell]

Well, the price being 252$, it means that everybody who who owns bitcoin thinks that they are worth more than 245$; but, on the other hand, everybody in the world who has some money to spare thinks that 1 BTC is not worth 255$.

You really are not much of an economist, are you ? How does such an oversimplifying way to look at economic choice even go together with your ability to solve abstract mathematical problems?

Okay. To name just one objection to such an incredibly naive model of the market:

Misrepresentation of your actual valuation for strategic purposes.

Similar to the misrepresentation, "tactical voting", in voting theory: sometimes it is individually rational for an actor not to cast a vote according to his sincere preference.

[Bagatell]

Well, the price being 252$, it means that everybody who who owns bitcoin thinks that they are worth more than 245$; but, on the other hand, everybody in the world who has some money to spare thinks that 1 BTC is not worth 255$.

You really are not much of an economist, are you ?

No appreciation of logic either. Not  everyone with spare cash has heard of bitcoin yet.

[ChartBuddy]

Coin
Explanation

[podyx]

The dumping begins?

Some folks trying to start panic?

[tarmi]

 

[sunshine_sid]

here we go again

[Hfertig]

Where's my weekend discount? Or is this the weekend discount?

there it is.... it appears your 35k did not really help....

[BlindMayorBitcorn]

Where's my weekend discount? Or is this the weekend discount?

Here it comes nao

Just dump it right back down.

*cue trolls

[noobtrader]

Well, the price being 252$, it means that everybody who who owns bitcoin thinks that they are worth more than 245$; but, on the other hand, everybody in the world who has some money to spare thinks that 1 BTC is not worth 255$.   The latter think that the chances of it being worth more than 1300$ anytime in the next few years are much less than 20%.

I don't know where you get the stat but I feel sorry for them.

It is not a survey, just math.  If anyone with money to invest thought that the chances of BTC hitting 1300$ in the next 2 years were higher than 20%, they should buy it even for 300$.  But they aren't, so...

Why not 19% or 21%?

Just rounded the number.  To get a more accurate value one should consider also the chances of it reaching 1200 but not 1300, 1100 but not 1200, 1000 but not 1100, etc.  Then one would get much less than 20% for "will get above 1300".

The 20% number is the upper bound, assuming that those buyers consider only two possibilities: "will get higher than 1300$ sometime in the next 2 years" or "crashes to 0$ right after I buy it, and stays there forever".  Then p*1300 + (1-p)*0 < 255, which gives p < 255/1300.  If they are considering other cases besides those two (which of course they are), then p must be even less than that.

Anyway, note that it is what "the market" must be thinking, not what I think.

 


 you should consider the timing.

at ath bitcoin of 1000 means that 50% ppl believe btc price is 2000 ?  or at some point of time in history when btc worth just 1 usd ppl 1/255 % believe that  bitcoin will reach 255 usd ?

[YourMother]

The dumping begins?

No

It´s just the whales that are shaking up the weak hands. BTC is undumpable.

It´s not like a 50000 btc auction is coming.
It´s not like that stupid fuck Kim Dotcom Jung-un just realized that he cannot unload at $275 and started dumping early, because guess what ? Even the dumbest bulltards are not that naive anymore to follow a sudden 20 dollar growth.

[Hfertig]

The dumping begins?

Some folks trying to start panic?

was kind of expected.... wasn't it ?

[Hfertig]

The dumping begins?

No

It´s just the whales that are shaking up the weak hands. BTC is undumpable.

It´s not like a 50000 btc auction is coming.
It´s not like that stupid fuck Kim Dotcom Jung-un just realized that he can´t unload at $275, because guess what ? Even the dumbest bulltards are not that naive anymore to follow a sudden 20 dollar growth.

agree. nothing than another bulltrap....

[Morecoin Freeman]

Started a long at $257, should get out now?

YES get out!

[findftp]

Wow, 8000 coins dumped in 30 minutes.
There are some real kamikaze bears trying to get their shorts covered lower.

Lol, they'll fail.

Love it when you see so much denial among the bears.