Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[BlackSpidy]

TIL, trolls make all sorts of crazy conspiracy theories when it comes to bitcoin.
For example Jorge Solfo(something something) said "any kid with a laptop" can duplicate their bitcoin by mining a duplicate blockchain (somehow), and some manipulation of private keys... yet he is unable to present a proof of concept. Because any kid with a laptop can mine a blockchain parallel to the one we use... somehow creating "bitcoin b".

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[empowering]

Coin
Explanation

Sod the boat ..... I want one of those ^^ 

[Norway]

The money that sits on saving accounts are not real money, because they exist in two or more places simultaneously. A dollar that sits on your saving account is at the same time lended to somebody else and sits on their current account too.

I'm sorry, but I really have to disagree with your analysis. You are making a distincion between real and not real/duplicated money. But you are actually describing inflation/money printing. This process is not the same as the definition of M2. However, I agree that fractional reserving can be done with bitcoin for companies like Coinbase / bitcoin banks.

[rolling]

The money that sits on saving accounts are not real money, because they exist in two or more places simultaneously. A dollar that sits on your saving account is at the same time lended to somebody else and sits on their current account too.

I'm sorry, but I really have to disagree with your analysis. You are making a distincion between real and not real/duplicated money. But you are actually describing inflation/money printing. This process is not the same as the definition of M2. However, I agree that fractional reserving can be done with bitcoin for companies like Coinbase / bitcoin banks.

That's not going to happen anytime soon. Even the NY Bit Licence requires 100% reserves in USD and BTC.

[JimboToronto]

Sod the boat .....

I've never seen a sodded boat, but here's a well-sodded car.



 

[12345mm]

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Explanation

Sod the boat ..... I want one of those ^^ 

those desert runners are ridiculous ... and i'm sure suuuuuper fun ... but i already own a badass rock crawler jeep that can go anywhere on dryish land ... the most toys wins right ?

[noobtrader]

The money that sits on saving accounts are not real money, because they exist in two or more places simultaneously. A dollar that sits on your saving account is at the same time lended to somebody else and sits on their current account too.

I'm sorry, but I really have to disagree with your analysis. You are making a distincion between real and not real/duplicated money. But you are actually describing inflation/money printing. This process is not the same as the definition of M2. However, I agree that fractional reserving can be done with bitcoin for companies like Coinbase / bitcoin banks.

That's not going to happen anytime soon. Even the NY Bit Licence requires 100% reserves in USD and BTC.

can be done outside the US ?

[rolling]

The money that sits on saving accounts are not real money, because they exist in two or more places simultaneously. A dollar that sits on your saving account is at the same time lended to somebody else and sits on their current account too.

I'm sorry, but I really have to disagree with your analysis. You are making a distincion between real and not real/duplicated money. But you are actually describing inflation/money printing. This process is not the same as the definition of M2. However, I agree that fractional reserving can be done with bitcoin for companies like Coinbase / bitcoin banks.

That's not going to happen anytime soon. Even the NY Bit Licence requires 100% reserves in USD and BTC.

can be done outside the US ?

Can be done but I wouldn't trust them. I'm keeping my bitcoin in cold storage. Many more thefts to come before these companies get it right.

[empowering]

Coin
Explanation

Sod the boat ..... I want one of those ^^  

those desert runners are ridiculous ... and i'm sure suuuuuper fun ... but i already own a badass rock crawler jeep that can go anywhere on dryish land ... the most toys wins right ?

In reality they are both two of my favorite things:

I love off road driving

I love fishing (sea/coastal)

So I would be happy with either.

Happier with both.

[12345mm]

Coin
Explanation

Sod the boat ..... I want one of those ^^  

those desert runners are ridiculous ... and i'm sure suuuuuper fun ... but i already own a badass rock crawler jeep that can go anywhere on dryish land ... the most toys wins right ?

In reality they are both two of my favorite things:

I love off road driving

I love fishing (sea/coastal)

So I would be happy with either.

Happier with both.

righton righton ... if you dig mountaineering i think we're twins interest wise ... *i prefer to spear fish than to wait for them to bite

[ChartBuddy]

Coin
Explanation

[empowering]

righton righton ... if you dig mountaineering i think we're twins interest wise ... *i prefer to spear fish than to wait for them to bite

I enjoy rock climbing, caving, not really done any mountaineering as such, biggest thing I have gone up (on foot at least) would be Snowden in Wales, though I have a date with destiny to go and climb one of the Annapurna peaks. (or near enough lol, I hear one of the passes (Thorung La pass) that takes you into the middle is pretty high, 5,400m)

I have always thought if you are going to rag the absolute shyte out of an off road vehicle, car, buggy, bike, quad..... heck even a jetski, it is nearly almost always better if it is rented so then you do not have to pay for the repairs and maintenance... they can after all take a fair bit of beating, but only so much  

Though it is a awesome feeling to really really know your machine well and its weight, its physics, the way it moves, that is when they are most fun imo.

As for boats, as long as you can fish, sleep, and cook on it.. I love it, only thing is if I bought one I would have to go and live on it for 10 months of the year, otherwise I would feel like I was just throwing money into a hole in the sea.  Only tried spear fishing once.. yeah, good fun.

[12345mm]

for sure i beat the living shit out of my jeep on a regular basis it's fun as hell ... biggest peak i've done is mt whitney on the trail of light so ... highest in continental US ... haven't made it up to alaska for denali for highest on the continent but that would be awesome achievement ... maybe someday ... i don't really ever want to attempt anything that risks edema / requires O2 bottles ... fun is fun but hiking on the moon is crazy

[Wary]

The money that sits on saving accounts are not real money, because they exist in two or more places simultaneously. A dollar that sits on your saving account is at the same time lended to somebody else and sits on their current account too.

I'm sorry, but I really have to disagree with your analysis. You are making a distincion between real and not real/duplicated money. But you are actually describing inflation/money printing. This process is not the same as the definition of M2. However, I agree that fractional reserving can be done with bitcoin for companies like Coinbase / bitcoin banks.

That's not going to happen anytime soon. Even the NY Bit Licence requires 100% reserves in USD and BTC.

It have already happened. At Mt Gox. 

[rolling]

The money that sits on saving accounts are not real money, because they exist in two or more places simultaneously. A dollar that sits on your saving account is at the same time lended to somebody else and sits on their current account too.

I'm sorry, but I really have to disagree with your analysis. You are making a distincion between real and not real/duplicated money. But you are actually describing inflation/money printing. This process is not the same as the definition of M2. However, I agree that fractional reserving can be done with bitcoin for companies like Coinbase / bitcoin banks.

That's not going to happen anytime soon. Even the NY Bit Licence requires 100% reserves in USD and BTC.

It have already happened. At Mt Gox.  

Exactly...and we know how that turned out.

[JorgeStolfi]

Phew! For a moment I was afraid that there might now be someone on the board of the Bitcoin Foundation who might be a respectable fellow. But:
http://www.reddit.com/r/Buttcoin/comments/2xpz4r/newly_elected_member_of_the_bitcoin_foundation/

Also:
http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/2xq83g/this_is_it_gentlemen_bitcoin_gone_mainstream/

I must admit that I was wrong:



I did not foresee the racists, neonazis, and white supremacists...

 

[billyjoeallen]

Not M1. M2. Including long term savings accounts. I use my bitcoins as M2 today. Long term savings account. On a paper wallet  

Not M2. M1. Money on savings accounts are lended by banks to somebody and put to their current accounts. So, M2=M1+IOU. Bitcoin will replace real money, rather than IOUs.  So, to calculate (maximal) future value of bitcoins we should use M1 or MB, rather than M2.

I think that's right. We are going to see more and more off blockchain type transactions such as me using my CB account to buy something on overstock. This effectively increases the money supply. It doesn't even have to be fraudulent. There is nothing to prevent fractional reserve bitcoin banks if consumers want them.

To sort this out, let's set definitions first. (You of course know most of the below, so can skip a paragraph or two ).

M0 are paper bills. They are real money in a sense that one dollar bill cannot be in two places simultaneously. There is no fractional reserve banking with M0. M1 is M0+current accounts. M1 are more-less real money too. The amount of real money is MB, but M1 is a good approximation of it.

The money that sits on saving accounts are not real money, because they exist in two or more places simultaneously. A dollar that sits on your saving account is at the same time lended to somebody else and sits on their current account too. So, money on your saving account are not real money, but just promises to get real money and put them on your current account. We can say that M2 = M1+IOU.

We can make similar definition for bitcoin. Bitcoin's M1 are bitcoins that exist only in one place - in blockchain. BTCM1. Currently there are about 13,000,000 of them.

As you've correctly pointed out, there are also promises of bitcoin, that sits off-chain. So we can define BTCM2 = BTCM1 +BTCIOU.

The whole discussion was what will bitcoin cost if it'll replace fiat?

The suggested formula was:  bitcoin price = M2/BTCM1

I disagree with this formula. IMO, correct formula should be:

either bitcoin price = M1/BTCM1.
or      bitcoin price = M2/BTCM2.

Problem with the second formula, however is that currently we have no idea how big BTCIOU are going to be.

I see what you are saying, and the second formula is problematic. Maybe it would be more helpful to attack the problem from the other end. Something is only worth what someone is willing to trade for it. If Bitcoin replaces a given market or industry, then if the replacement industry stays the same size, bitcoin is worth whatever the disrupted industry was worth prior to disruption. You could make a partial valuation based on the market share Bitcoin takes from the legacy industry or market, and then divide that number by the number of bitcoins in existence. This value is ADDED to the value Bitcoin has for every other use, so:

The value of the reserve currency used for settlements, peer to peer transactions on the blockchain, remittances, micropayments, titles (colored coins), provably fair voting, PM type store of value, machine to machine (IoT), escrows, and most likely killer apps we haven't even thought of yet. Bitcoin has the potential not only to capture a significant chunk of Gross World Product, but to actually GROW GWP in ways it otherwise wouldn't grow just by increasing financial efficiency.

[brg444]

Bitfury boys getting cozy with the NSA

https://twitter.com/BitfuryGeorge/status/572631596387463168

Emergency meeting was probably called when it was revealed a few days ago that 50%+ miners are Chinese operated 

[Wary]

The money that sits on saving accounts are not real money, because they exist in two or more places simultaneously. A dollar that sits on your saving account is at the same time lended to somebody else and sits on their current account too.

I'm sorry, but I really have to disagree with your analysis. You are making a distincion between real and not real/duplicated money. But you are actually describing inflation/money printing. This process is not the same as the definition of M2. However, I agree that fractional reserving can be done with bitcoin for companies like Coinbase / bitcoin banks.

The (simplified) definition of M2 is M1 + savings accounts + term accounts. Most of money on savings and term accounts are IOUs, since bank doesn't actually have them, they are lended by the bank to somebody else (that's why we earn interest on these accounts). That's why M2 = M1+IOU. Granted, it is all simplified. But it's OK for our purpose, which was estimating MB, since only MB fiat will be replaced by blockchained bitcoin.

[ChartBuddy]

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