Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[gentlemand]

Evolution dark net market admins have just run off with the users money. 43k btc. Still feeling super bullish everyone?

Sheep 2.0

Almost makes one want to set up a dark net marketplace

It's a sweet deal. The users will all be too fucked out of their skulls to ever exercise due diligence. The tools are now there to neuter this type of scenario before it even becomes a possibility. My sympathy is limited/ non existent.

[JorgeStolfi]

What are the problems with bitcoin??

Some problems:

* Centralization of mining seems inevitable.

* There is no mechanism to stabilize the value.

* Limited supply leads to expectations of high value which leads to hoarding instead of use.

* Block reward leads to a hyperdeveloped mining industry supported by investors rather than by users.

* For most people, irreversibility is a serious defect, not a feature.

* Risk of theft is too high for people who are not computer experts.

And maybe more.

I am sure that millions of people don't think like you do.

Perhaps a million people have a reasonable understanding of bitcoin and believe in its eventual succeess.  Probably millions of people also have a reasonable understanding of bitcoin but do not believe in its eventual success.  The other 7000 million either haven't heard of it, or have heard of it but don't care to know more, or know just enough to dismiss it.

[galdur]

I wonder if that slow and steady and persistent grind down so familiar from last year is returning. Way too early to tell, sure hope not. But bear market rallies tend to be rather deceptive.

[inca]

I wonder if that slow and steady and persistent grind down so familiar from last year is returning. Way too early to tell, sure hope not. But bear market rallies tend to be rather deceptive.

Way to early to tell. I agree. A pullback into the 260's or 270's is healthy. We were unlikely to have yet another green weekly candle

[solex]

What are the problems with bitcoin??

Some problems:

* Centralization of mining seems inevitable.

As mining matures it is becoming decentralized. organofcorti stats shows this clearly.

* There is no mechanism to stabilize the value.

Yes there is: more widespread adoption, the plateau of market penetration at the top of the S-curve. It's value will be very stable then, more so than the DXY which has screamed from 80 to 100 in a short time and that measures multi-trillion$ of value.

* Limited supply leads to expectations of high value which leads to hoarding instead of use.

Hearding is good, investing is good, saving is good. Only inflationistas dream otherwise.

* Block reward leads to a hyperdeveloped mining industry supported by investors rather than by users.

As before, investors are good. How many people mine their own raw materials for products they use?

* For most people, irreversibility is a serious defect, not a feature.

Cash and gold is irreversible. This is a good feature of sound money.

* Risk of theft is too high for people who are not computer experts.

Early days in a new technology. Wallet software has improved massively, still a way to go, but in 10 years, very safe to own bitcoins.

I am sure that millions of people don't think like you do.

Or you. You are doing your students a disservice by not teaching them about Bitcoin in the way MIT, Princeton and Nicosia do.

Perhaps a million people have a reasonable understanding of bitcoin and believe in its eventual succeess.  Probably millions of people also have a reasonable understanding of bitcoin but do not believe in its eventual success.  The other 7000 million either haven't heard of it, or have heard of it but don't care to know more, or know just enough to dismiss it.

Handwaving. Only a few people understand the software in detail. The rest have to just see that it works: like smartphones, like quantum mechanics, like stem-cell treatment, like meteorology, etc etc etc. In case you haven't noticed a major feature of modern civilization is extreme specialization. No one person can understand more than a fraction of everything.

[ChartBuddy]

Coin
Explanation

[silverfuture]

What are the problems with bitcoin??

Some problems:

* Centralization of mining seems inevitable.

As mining matures it is becoming decentralized. organofcorti stats shows this clearly.

* There is no mechanism to stabilize the value.

Yes there is: more widespread adoption, the plateau of market penetration at the top of the S-curve. It's value will be very stable then, more so than the DXY which has screamed from 80 to 100 in a short time and that measures multi-trillion$ of value.

* Limited supply leads to expectations of high value which leads to hoarding instead of use.

Hearding is good, investing is good, saving is good. Only inflationistas dream otherwise.

* Block reward leads to a hyperdeveloped mining industry supported by investors rather than by users.

As before, investors are good. How many people mine their own raw materials for products they use?

* For most people, irreversibility is a serious defect, not a feature.

Cash and gold is irreversible. This is a good feature of sound money.

* Risk of theft is too high for people who are not computer experts.

Early days in a new technology. Wallet software has improved massively, still a way to go, but in 10 years, very safe to own bitcoins.

I am sure that millions of people don't think like you do.

Or you. You are doing your students a disservice by not teaching them about Bitcoin in the way MIT, Princeton and Nicosia do.

Perhaps a million people have a reasonable understanding of bitcoin and believe in its eventual succeess.  Probably millions of people also have a reasonable understanding of bitcoin but do not believe in its eventual success.  The other 7000 million either haven't heard of it, or have heard of it but don't care to know more, or know just enough to dismiss it.

Handwaving. Only a few people understand the software in detail. The rest have to just see that it works: like smartphones, like quantum mechanics, like stem-cell treatment, like meteorology, etc etc etc, I case you haven't noticed a major feature of modern civilization is extreme specialization. No one person can understand more than a fraction of everything.

Nice going, way to pwn Jorge. It's easy but takes time and attention likely spent better elsewhere

[silverfuture]

Price goes up or down, I dont care. I make money either way.

It's a decentralized network. Countries don't really exist.

[Silverspoon]

How is it no matter how many times I get fucked by Bitcoin & associated scam, I learn exactly nothing?

Fuck if I know

[silverfuture]

/snip
It's a decentralized network. Countries don't really exist.

you seem to miss the sentiment, lighten up.

Sorry, must have been too arcane a sentiment for my sensitive proclivities. Carry on!

[electerium]

I would expect a little more downward pressure by the end of the week.


This is the cycle you're going to see for the next few weeks heading into Gemini's launch and how and who this US facing bank is, and whether there will be a joint statement of further relationships with Bitcoin.

Youll see lots of Wednesday-Friday dumps and sideways action with Sat-Mon pumps in anticipation of news.

[Trolfi]

You have spent hundreds of hours looking for points of failure, honed them ad nauseam, and these 6 issues are the best you can come up with? Gosh, if anything, I'd say that is a most compelling argument for the technology.

Thanks for providing such diligent service, "Stolfi". It is very useful. I do mean it.

What are the problems with bitcoin??

Some problems:

* Centralization of mining seems inevitable.

* There is no mechanism to stabilize the value.

* Limited supply leads to expectations of high value which leads to hoarding instead of use.

* Block reward leads to a hyperdeveloped mining industry supported by investors rather than by users.

* For most people, irreversibility is a serious defect, not a feature.

* Risk of theft is too high for people who are not computer experts.

And maybe more.

I am sure that millions of people don't think like you do.

Perhaps a million people have a reasonable understanding of bitcoin and believe in its eventual succeess.  Probably millions of people also have a reasonable understanding of bitcoin but do not believe in its eventual success.  The other 7000 million either haven't heard of it, or have heard of it but don't care to know more, or know just enough to dismiss it.

[BlackSpidy]

damn it, why does the pseudo-intellectual FUD troll have to share my name!?
Anyways, one doesnt really have to be a tech technician to know how to use bitcoin. One only has to a simple set of rules:
a) encrypt and back up your wallet (it's really easy to do in bitcoin core, IDK about other wallets)
b) always be careful who you send to always check the address more than once.
c) always be careful how much you send always check the amount more than once!
d) always use escrow (there's a ton of websites that are cheap and easy to use for this service).
e) ALWAYS check the reputation of the person/business you're giving your coins to.
f) follow any rule applicant to money.
^{g) paper wallets are safest, so long as they remain unspent. Never use the same paper wallet twice (paper wallet tutorials are super easy).}

But since "any kid with a laptop can duplicate their bitcoin". That's no problem at all.

(Before you scream "21 million": that bitcoin limit is "guaranteed" only by  fuzzy arguments about a complicated economic game, not "by math", and could be changed if the right players agreed to it.  Moreover, any kid can duplicate the amount of bitcoins in existence by creating a hard fork of the blockchain and starting to mine it on his laptotp.  Anyone who has bitcoins will gain an equal amount of those "series B" bitcoins, accessible through the same private keys, and could trade them independently of his old bitcoins by duplicating his wallet and downloading the kids's client software. Whether those "series B" bitcoins will get a significant market value is a market(ing) question, not a technical one.  And, of course, there are the altcoins.)

[Cconvert2G36]

No mention of 2.7 tx per second, the current disincentive for miners to mine larger blocks? And the component of the community that views it as heresy to even consider changing? This would probably be my points 1-6.

[bassclef]

About 10,000 coins were sold on Bitfinex alone to only bring us down $10, but the bid side remains the same. Take that info how you see fit. I know what that means to me.

Let me translate: Bull-market is ON. Bear-market is off. This 10$ move was an last failed attempt to reverse the trend. I see the we are going up.

What is your basis?

This experienced trader makes a valid point for something otherwise:

https://www.tradingview.com/v/iWXmzaeG/

Dont waste your time, no one left in here is a serious trader, if you actually want to hear the views of people who can trade both ways join whaleclub on teamspeak or trading view chat.

Hey now, here I am, making a nice living. Tradingview analysis is largely unimpressive to me and I don't see anyone predicting reversals, simply trend continuations and lots of EW (meh). Also very little volume analysis and over-reliance on indicators.

Whaleclub is just going to cloud new traders and is possibly a way for the mods to gain a following to trade against. You can't rule anything out when profit is on the line. Best to go it alone.

[greenlion]

You have spent hundreds of hours looking for points of failure, honed them ad nauseam, and these 6 issues are the best you can come up with? Gosh, if anything, I'd say that is a most compelling argument for the technology.

Thanks for providing such diligent service, "Stolfi". It is very useful. I do mean it.

To be perfectly fair, he did also write something completely mentally retarded about people sitting in a circle playing hot potato with dollars, with a sweet little zinger at the end mentioning Bitcoin, whose perceived wittiness can only be explained by geriatric dementia.

[Erdogan]

Looking forward to your pension?

[ChartBuddy]

Coin
Explanation

[JorgeStolfi]

* Centralization of mining seems inevitable.

As mining matures it is becoming decentralized. organofcorti stats shows this clearly.

Last times I checked the distribution was variable but generally concentrated, 4-5 companies owning 51% of the hashpower.  And  they are now all Chinese.

* There is no mechanism to stabilize the value.

Yes there is: more widespread adoption, the plateau of market penetration at the top of the S-curve. It's value will be very stable then, more so than the DXY which has screamed from 80 to 100 in a short time and that measures multi-trillion$ of value.

That is not a "mechanism" but only a "hope".  Currently the price is almost entirely (90% or more) set by speculation, ad that is the mais reason for the high volatility.  If the price increases to 1000 $/BTC and beyond, that situation would only get worse.  

* Limited supply leads to expectations of high value which leads to hoarding instead of use.

Hearding is good, investing is good, saving is good. Only inflationistas dream otherwise.

Is there any example of a deflationary currency that has succeeded?  

* Block reward leads to a hyperdeveloped mining industry supported by investors rather than by users.

As before, investors are good. How many people mine their own raw materials for products they use?

You miss the point.  The money that new investors are putting into the system goes to the miners' pockets and to pay their bills.  Like if a 100 dollar bill cost 100 dollars to print. Or if all the money that investors put into Apple stocks were spent to print super-unforgeable stock certificates, instead of factories and stores.

Moreover the people who use the system (by issuing transactions) have the illusion that the service is free, because the real costs are being paid by those new investors.  That is not a sane free market.

* For most people, irreversibility is a serious defect, not a feature.

Cash and gold is irreversible. This is a good feature of sound money.

Note, "for most people".  

(And cash and gold are not as irreversible as bitcoin. They require physical presence, so the police has a better chance at recovering stolen cash or gold than of recovering stolen bitcoins.)

* Risk of theft is too high for people who are not computer experts.

Early days in a new technology. Wallet software has improved massively, still a way to go, but in 10 years, very safe to own bitcoins.

We'll see.  Bitstamp was recently hacked, BCI relased broken code to their clients...

Perhaps a million people have a reasonable understanding of bitcoin and believe in its eventual succeess.  Probably millions of people also have a reasonable understanding of bitcoin but do not believe in its eventual success.  The other 7000 million either haven't heard of it, or have heard of it but don't care to know more, or know just enough to dismiss it.

Handwaving. Only a few people understand the software in detail. The rest have to just see that it works: like smartphones, like quantum mechanics, like stem-cell treatment, like meteorology, etc etc etc. In case you haven't noticed a major feature of modern civilization is extreme specialization. No one person can understand more than a fraction of everything.

It is not just hand-waving.  There must be millions of computer scientists who can read  Satoshi's whitepaper with no difficulty, and can understand the essential priciples of the protocol, even without reading the source code.  However, not all computer scientists believe in bitcoin.  In fact, based on the limited sample I have, there must be far more non-believers than believers among the computer scientists.

[Cconvert2G36]

Looking forward to your pension?

Whoa. 40% slump. Sounds too volatile and inflationary for mainstream use.