Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[tarmi]

Bulls are in complete denial and holding on to their leveraged long position, they gonna bring us in 1xx region i'm afraid.

 

 
 

HODL $$$ and shorts

this will crash spectacularly.

bullish RSI divergence -  

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[Dump3er]

bullish RSI divergence -  

Yeah, and a hidden bearish divergence, that also will get stronger and stronger with the ongoing bounce.

Distribution Level  

[macsga]

Any other HODLER's at a huge loss over all?

Somebody called? I'm here!!!  
A Hodler can never lose!

Except for:
1. You lose when you're robbed (I got Goxxed & Vircurexxed)
2. You lose when you sell (at ANY price, no matter how high or low).

I will probably have to sell but I'm nowhere near my target (never was even @ $1,200 either to save your breath)
If some one of you here "certifies" himself as "Hodler" then keep this in mind:

YOU DON'T SELL UNLESS IT'S AN EMERGENCY AND YOU DESPERATELY NEED THE FIAT!

Period.

[julian071]

Cloudmining companies are experiencing a lot of troubles with their websites the last couple of days. Megamine.com is offline regularly, and so is genesis-mining.com and zeushash.com. Fishy...

[ChartBuddy]

Coin
Explanation

[Ask Ken About Love]

^Trend reversal?

[Fatman3001]

a) Miners are very picky about pools, if something is wrong they switch. This is not "in theory", it happens all the time. Do you remember Ghash.io from last summer? Where are they now?

b) PoS has a huge image problem and it's unproven on a large scale.

A) I dunno, haven't mined BTC since before ASICs came out and difficulty and electricity costs skyrocketed.

B) PoS has image problem?  PoSV is the solution.  Reddcoin is a PoSV coin that gains coin-age over time, but slows down tremendously if the coins aren't moved.  Basically, the more you spend, the more you earn.  Roughly 5% "inflation" on your coins.  Easy to get and there are different wallets available, such as the Browser wallet for google chrome (uses a seed), the typical QT wallet, and the Social Wallet that is connected to twitter, the IRC channel, etc... plus a few new features yet to be seen in cryptocurrencies, are going to make this a breakout coin.  Best part: I can stake on a raspberry pi.  No spending stupid amounts of money on ASICs that will be useless in a month, no driving down the price because of selloffs to pay for electricity for those ASICs.  5 watts of power to secure the network, not a few megawatts.  Plus, I'll actually break even.  I don't know one person that has purchases an ASIC recently that has made their money back.  Early adopters of the ASICs that didn't buy from BFL might have had a chance, or those who sodl when BTC was > $1200 made their money back, but anyone who's purchased anything to mine BTC using BTC will never make that back.  Better to buy BTC or sell shovels.

One of the virtues of PoW is that it's simple. More complex methods like PoSV have a serious danger of getting rekt to the ground by exploits. I would stay out of Reddcoin and other PoS/PoSV coins until they are properly stress tested. Another problem is that their award structures tend to look like proper pyramid schemes. I hodl so I get more money by hodling... or "days destroyed"-like rewards. Any coin that bases "mining" on the users behavior is problematic since it skews economic activity.

With BTC you make money mining if you have the best conditions for mining. Welcome to the real world! It's a proper financial tool, not a playground for spotty teenagers crying about how unfair it is that they can't get rich quick on the Alienware machines they got for Christmas.

[tarmi]

Cloudmining companies are experiencing a lot of troubles with their websites the last couple of days. Megamine.com is offline regularly, and so is genesis-mining.com and zeushash.com. Fishy...

[Fatman3001]

Cloudmining companies are experiencing a lot of troubles with their websites the last couple of days. Megamine.com is offline regularly, and so is genesis-mining.com and zeushash.com. Fishy...

I know at least one of them are sniffing at bankruptcy.

[8up]

Guys. I turn back to my previous expectation which is $120. In the meanwhile I thought - up from $220 would give us the chance for a reversial. But optimism is far to high for a real trend change. Look at the ridiculously high number of long positions.

[Ask Ken About Love]

...
A Hodler can never lose!

Except for:
1. You lose when you're robbed (I got Goxxed & Vircurexxed)
...

Getting [repeatedly] robbed by second-rate crooks is the defining quality of Bitcoiners.  Always assumed that was Bitcoin's main attraction.

Good morning, gentlemen.

http://s1.postimg.org/vj63dbv33/durr.jpg

[hdbuck]

its useless to resist..

Prediction in act.

On 208 hit next target 120.

[JorgeStolfi]

bitcoin is overrated and overpriced

For now though, yes it is, maybe Bitcoin should go under $100 and stabilize the price. But if it goes too low, the miners will become unprofitable and they will leave.

Back in Jan/2014, the miners as a whole were getting something like 4 M$ per day. In Jun/2014 they made about 3 M$/day.  The big industrial miners were probably making a good profit back then.  Today, they are fighting for less than 1 M$ per day.  It seems unlikely that they are still very profitable.  It is no wonder that the majority of the hashpower is now in China, where electricity is cheap(*).

The hashpower (and hence the difficulty) is still increasing, perhaps because mining farm operations that started months ago are only now coming in line, and/or because the existing farms are replacing their machines by more efficient ones.  Either way, the capital cost of that new equipment must be adding to the stress on miners' revenue. For some miners, the expected return from their investment may already be negative; but they may keep mining, in order to reduce their losses, until the increase in difficulty makes the marginal cost negative too.

Recall that the miners (and the entire bitcoin economy) are being supported almost entirely by the new investors who buy coins to hold.  The price has fallen so much because those investors, and their money, are becoming more scarce. 

In Jun/2014 those investors were putting 3 M$/day into the system for the miners, and some more for the earlier buyers who were cashing out. How much more, no one knows; for the sake of argument, lets assume that it is the same amount that they give to miners. WIth that assumption, the new investors must be pouring 2 M$/day today.

Today's new investors are motivated by the hope that some day -- say, in early 2016 -- they will be able to sell their coins for a lot more -- say, at least 500 $/BTC.  For that to happen, the new investors on that future date would have to put 6 M$/day into the system -- 2 M$/day to buy the coins produced by the miners, and 4 M$/day to buy the coins that today's investors are buying now, assumed to be worth 2 M$/day.  And those future investors must be motivated by the hope of selling their 500$ coins for 1000$, say in early 2017; which means that, by that date (post-halving), new investors should be pouring in 2 M$/day for the miners and 8 M$/day for the previous year's investors, or 10 M$/day.  And so on.

Good luck with that.

(*) I have read unconfirmed rumours that Friedcat, the CEO of the Chinese mining company AMHash, disappeared because the government discovered that his mine was getting its power from a food factory, which was heavily subsidized by the Chinese goverment.

[Sitarow]

^Trend reversal?

unfortunately this is btc moving out of drk into ltc and btc usd.

Drk at cryptsy exchange and ltc at btce.

Looks like what we seen back when bitstamp stolen btc was being sold on the markermarket.

[ChartBuddy]

Coin
Explanation

[SkyValeey]

Maybe we''ll see 1550-1600cny (or +) soon.

China is pretty bullish.

Good at by Chessnut https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=812637.msg10877073#msg10877073

[coinableS]

I had a dream last night I was watching the charts (anyone else dream about BTC charts?) and there was a mega green candle, and we were back up to the $800's. Obviously only a crazy dream. 

[Fatman3001]

I had a dream last night I was watching the charts (anyone else dream about BTC charts?) and there was a mega green candle, and we were back up to the $800's. Obviously only a crazy dream. 

Weird, I had the same dream a month ago. Only it went to 850 and I bailed before it crashed to 650 and stayed there.

[tarmi]

nice little bull trap.

220 soon?

[Bitcoiner_cph]

"buckle your seatbelt dorothy because kansas is going bye-bye"

We are going DOWN...

I am looking forward to the day I can use the same quote in the situation where bitcoin take over the world of money!