Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[damiano]

It looks like it might tip any moment

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[JorgeStolfi]

i somehow refuse to believe that after so great fundamentals and difficulty x times higher than 2013 summer

"Fundamentals" of an ordinary stock are the profits and capital assets of the underlying company.  When you own a stock certificate, you literally own a slice of the company, so you own a slice of its capital assets and you are entitled to a slice of their profits.  The fundamentals define the long-term price of a stock, although there can be a significant speculatiive element added to it in shorter time scales.

Bitcoin has no "fundamentals". A bitcoin is like a share of a company with no product or service, no revenue, no capital assets.  If you own a bitcoin you don't own any assets, and you are not entitled to any dividdends.  The only thing you own is the certificate itself, whose only merit is that its current ownership is regstered in a supposedly ultra-safe registry that no government can tamper with.  The only thing that fixes it price is speculation: your only hope of getting a profit out of it is finding someone who is willing to pay for it more than you paid.

There has been perhaps a billion dollars invested into mining equipment, but bitcoin owners do not own a single screw of it.  The mining industry has abut 800 k$/day of revenue, and some miners still make substantial profit; but not a penny of that money will go to the bitcoin owners.  More than half a billion dollars has been invested in exchanges, payment processors, and other bitcoin-related companies; but, again, bitcoin owners do not own any piece of them.  On the contrary, all the revenue of miners and bitcoin-related companies will come from the pockets of those who buy bitcoins.

As for the difficulty: the market price determines the revenue of the miners, that determines the total hashpower, that determines the difficulty -- all indirectly, with substantial delays and distorted by accidents and errors of judgement.  There is no reverse control channel: the difficulty has no influence whatsoever on the price.

[Xiaoxiao]

It is definitely going to stay in the $100 range pretty soon.  Monday morning and price hasn't changed a single bit.  No buying pressure at ALL.

[Fatman3001]

It is definitely going to stay in the $100 range pretty soon.  Monday morning and price hasn't changed a single bit.  No buying pressure at ALL.

What surprises me is that there is no selling pressure either at this price range.

Edit: The fact that this pig hasn't been slaughtered yet leads me to think that the big boys might know something we don't.

[Xiaoxiao]

Usually prices go up a little bit on Mondays and Tuesdays.  Usually people don't sell off mid day.  They wait until afternoon or overnight.

[SkyValeey]

It looks like it might tip any moment

Tip? You mean DIP?

[dakota neat]

I'm putting Stolfi on ignore until he changes his picture. Does he think he is Jimmy Wales?

[Fatman3001]

It looks like it might tip any moment

Tip? You mean DIP?

Crap! SkyVly has returned. We're dooooooooomed!

[Xiaoxiao]

Still $26m in longs.  Someone is going to get margin called very soon.

[Bassica]

i somehow refuse to believe that after so great fundamentals and difficulty x times higher than 2013 summer

"Fundamentals" of an ordinary stock are the profits and capital assets of the underlying company.  When you own a stock certificate, you literally own a slice of the company, so you own a slice of its capital assets and you are entitled to a slice of their profits.  The fundamentals define the long-term price of a stock, although there can be a significant speculatiive element added to it in shorter time scales.

Bitcoin has no "fundamentals". A bitcoin is like a share of a company with no product or service, no revenue, no capital assets.  If you own a bitcoin you don't own any assets, and you are not entitled to any dividdends.  The only thing you own is the certificate itself, whose only merit is that its current ownership is regstered in a supposedly ultra-safe registry that no government can tamper with.  The only thing that fixes it price is speculation: your only hope of getting a profit out of it is finding someone who is willing to pay for it more than you paid.

There has been perhaps a billion dollars invested into mining equipment, but bitcoin owners do not own a single screw of it.  The mining industry has abut 800 k$/day of revenue, and some miners still make substantial profit; but not a penny of that money will go to the bitcoin owners.  More than half a billion dollars has been invested in exchanges, payment processors, and other bitcoin-related companies; but, again, bitcoin owners do not own any piece of them.  On the contrary, all the revenue of miners and bitcoin-related companies will come from the pockets of those who buy bitcoins.

As for the difficulty: the market price determines the revenue of the miners, that determines the total hashpower, that determines the difficulty -- all indirectly, with substantial delays and distorted by accidents and errors of judgement.  There is no reverse control channel: the difficulty has no influence whatsoever on the price.

We're (trying to) assign a value to a network here, not a stock. Fundamentals for a network are #users, #tx's (useage), development of protocol, services on that protocol (i.e. potential use cases) etc.

I like the 'land-analogy' when explaining the speculative mania surrounding bitcoin. It's like owning a piece of land which has not much going for it right now. But people consider the possibility of the land being a vibrant city one day because of the certain characteristics it posesses.

On top of that, we're watching a very cool experiment unfold; the emerging of a international, decentralised payment and monetary system. This is the first time in history. In a world with so much central bank guidance, nirp/qe etc not bad to have an alternative to our money as debt-based system. Digital currency can also proof it's right/reason of existence in a scenario where complications unfold because of this.

btw thanks for being on bitcointalk, jorge. I value your opinion and input. Clearly you're a intelligent person. I only sincerly doubt whether you'd be capable of changing you're mind/opinion when necessary

[Fatman3001]

Still $26m in longs.  Someone is going to get margin called very soon.

We've heard that for over a month now, very soon seems to be sometime 2017.

[Xiaoxiao]

Still $26m in longs.  Someone is going to get margin called very soon.

We've heard that for over a month now, very soon seems to be sometime 2017.

The whales never dump midday USA time.  Always at night.  Just watch.

[oda.krell]

It looks like really slow/boring downside movement, where we will test support around 200-220..if we break that support, damn, it will take long time before we will truly reverse the bear trend...my crystal ball told me that this morning

so i am placing buys on 20 BTC @ 180...do you think its too low / or still too high??

I´d say too high, entire movement since january seems now like H/S pattern, which would point to lower lows 90-130. However 180 is safe bet unless you go in leveraged, bitcoin should recover fairly quickly after crashing to bottom.

Many people predicting 80-120 prices...i somehow refuse to believe that after so great fundamentals and difficulty x times higher than 2013 summer,  i would buy in the same range i was buying most of my coins...i will probably go like 80% of my money to 160-180 and 20% i will hide for the final crash to 100-120 but i really don't believe we will go that low...

Despite what Sr. Stolfi likes to claim about "there being no fundamentals", you are right of course: Bitcoin fundamentals are substantially better now than they were, say, 2 years ago.

The network is undergoing respectable growth (although perhaps a bit less spectacular than some were hoping a year or two ago). Number of transactions is up - and despite what the trolls like to claim, no evidence exists that this is due to manipulation. Hashrate is growing, which obviously serves a greater purpose than simply "making miners rich", i.e. the core function of the network (security) is getting stronger.

Alternatively, you can look at investments in BTC infrastructure as a long-term predictor. Sure, those are not "fundamentals" per se, but they're a good indicator that this isn't a Ponzi after all - again, despite what the trolls like to claim.


All of the above granted though, there is no arguing with the market.

In order for your argument (about price/fundamentals now vs. price/fundamentals back then) to actually work, you need at least one additional assumption: that price back then was the "fair" price per coin. And I'm afraid that's not a given. We're in the long, arduous process of figuring out what the fair price per coin is.

My personal view is this: if you look back at the limited history of this market, you will note that there are periods where price seems to run ahead of the fundamentals, and periods where the fundamentals seem to run ahead of price. Right now, we're in the latter type of period, and it's possible that it'll last some longer.

[billyjoeallen]

I would love to see a $180 double bottom, especially on high volume, but I can't wait for something that may happen at all. I have buy orders far north of that and If I get in too early, I can live with that. Somebody's  gonna wait too long and it won't be me.

Greece is going to implement capital controls within a month or two. The smart ones are going to want crypto and I plan on being in a position to provide it. If you think Bitcoin is volatile, just wait until the Grexit.  Things are going to get interesting.

[DonQuijote]

Still $26m in longs.  Someone is going to get margin called very soon.

Too many longs are dangerous :/

[Fatman3001]

I would love to see a $180 double bottom, especially on high volume, but I can't wait for something that may happen at all. I have buy orders far north of that and If I get in too early, I can live with that. Somebody's  gonna wait too long and it won't be me.

Greece is going to implement capital controls within a month or two. The smart ones are going to want crypto and I plan on being in a position to provide it. If you think Bitcoin is volatile, just wait until the Grexit.  Things are going to get interesting.

Billy Joe Banjo! Haven't seen you in a while. Lots of fires in the south?

[ChartBuddy]

Coin
Explanation

[billyjoeallen]

I would love to see a $180 double bottom, especially on high volume, but I can't wait for something that may happen at all. I have buy orders far north of that and If I get in too early, I can live with that. Somebody's  gonna wait too long and it won't be me.

Greece is going to implement capital controls within a month or two. The smart ones are going to want crypto and I plan on being in a position to provide it. If you think Bitcoin is volatile, just wait until the Grexit.  Things are going to get interesting.

Billy Joe Banjo! Haven't seen you in a while. Lots of fires in the south?

Just got back from one. A little house fire, nothing to get excited about. I got a second job to take advantage of these low BTC prices so I hope it stays down long enough for me to load up. I'll soon be in a position to hold indefinitely and even add to my position so I don't much care which way the price goes in the next few months.

[damiano]

It looks like it might tip any moment

Tip? You mean DIP?

Tip/dip bring it

[Fatman3001]

I would love to see a $180 double bottom, especially on high volume, but I can't wait for something that may happen at all. I have buy orders far north of that and If I get in too early, I can live with that. Somebody's  gonna wait too long and it won't be me.

Greece is going to implement capital controls within a month or two. The smart ones are going to want crypto and I plan on being in a position to provide it. If you think Bitcoin is volatile, just wait until the Grexit.  Things are going to get interesting.

Billy Joe Banjo! Haven't seen you in a while. Lots of fires in the south?

Just got back from one. A little house fire, nothing to get excited about. I got a second job to take advantage of these low BTC prices so I hope it stays down long enough for me to load up. I'll soon be in a position to hold indefinitely and even add to my position so I don't much care which way the price goes in the next few months.

If you work on commission at the fire department you could just buy a can of gas and be proactive.