Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ChartBuddy]

Coin
Explanation

[Chef Ramsay]

GBTC might start trading on monday, but I would think Gemini/Coin would want to comply with the final BitLicense before they launched.

As I understand, Gemini (the Winkles' exchange) depends only on ordinary bureaucratic licenses (MSB, MTB, whatever).  If  Coinbase can function, they should be able to function too (unless they are based in NY and have to wait for the BitLicense because of that).

The COIN ETF is more complicated: it must be approved by the SEC, which is not just a bureaucratic formality.  There is no way to tell how long the SEC will take to decide, or whather it will get approved at all.  (In fact, I have read somewhere that, the longer the SEC takes to decide, the less likely is that it will be approved.)

whather  

I find it hard to believe that the heavyweight attorney that specializes in this SEC stuff can't make it happen or know the approach to making it a high probability. I'm sure she has had clients that work in key areas of the SEC and/or is on a first name basis w/ politicians that can properly lean on the needed personnel to lock this up. Furthermore, I'm sure major interest across wall street and the hedge fund scene want this type of thing up and running to put portions of their assets into it for an intense growth wing.

[gentlemand]

I find it hard to believe that the heavyweight attorney that specializes in this SEC stuff can't make it happen or know the approach to making it a high probability. I'm sure she has had clients that work in key areas of the SEC and/or is on a first name basis w/ politicians that can properly lean on the needed personnel to lock this up. Furthermore, I'm sure major interest across wall street and the hedge fund scene want this type of thing up and running to put portions of their assets into it for an intense growth wing.

It's a big leap from just another stock though. There's a lot to teach and a lot of scepticism to overcome. She probably has to do as much educating as hustling and smoothing things over.

There's a lot to know and worry about going wrong in the eyes of someone who could approve it.

[Fatman3001]

GBTC might start trading on monday, but I would think Gemini/Coin would want to comply with the final BitLicense before they launched.

As I understand, Gemini (the Winkles' exchange) depends only on ordinary bureaucratic licenses (MSB, MTB, whatever).  If  Coinbase can function, they should be able to function too (unless they are based in NY and have to wait for the BitLicense because of that).

The COIN ETF is more complicated: it must be approved by the SEC, which is not just a bureaucratic formality.  There is no way to tell how long the SEC will take to decide, or whather it will get approved at all.  (In fact, I have read somewhere that, the longer the SEC takes to decide, the less likely is that it will be approved.)

whather 

What the heck, why not feed the TLDR Troll.

I'm guessing one of the functions of Gemini would be to provide liquidity to the ETF in an open and regulated way. Thus it would make sense to base it in New York, or at least have it comply with/conform to the BitLicense. Not to mention that if it's going to be an insured exchange they ought to comply/conform to the strictest or leading standards in order to keep insurance costs down. Plus, New York is where the money's at.

I would think they would launch the Gemini exchange before they launch the ETF since there might very well be that they won't get the ETF unless it's hooked up to an exchange that meets certain requirements. I am not sure if Coinbase meets the requirements to provide liquidity to an ETF.

Yes, it's all guesswork. But looking at the launch of Gemini it looks like not even the Twinkledinkles know what it takes to get that ETF through, so I'm in good company.

[Norway]

GBTC might start trading on monday, but I would think Gemini/Coin would want to comply with the final BitLicense before they launched.

As I understand, Gemini (the Winkles' exchange) depends only on ordinary bureaucratic licenses (MSB, MTB, whatever).  If  Coinbase can function, they should be able to function too (unless they are based in NY and have to wait for the BitLicense because of that).

The COIN ETF is more complicated: it must be approved by the SEC, which is not just a bureaucratic formality.  There is no way to tell how long the SEC will take to decide, or whather it will get approved at all.  (In fact, I have read somewhere that, the longer the SEC takes to decide, the less likely is that it will be approved.)

whather  

I find it hard to believe that the heavyweight attorney that specializes in this SEC stuff can't make it happen or know the approach to making it a high probability. I'm sure she has had clients that work in key areas of the SEC and/or is on a first name basis w/ politicians that can properly lean on the needed personnel to lock this up. Furthermore, I'm sure major interest across wall street and the hedge fund scene want this type of thing up and running to put portions of their assets into it for an intense growth wing.

I'm sure Kathleen Moriarty has the skills needed, but this is a much bigger game than her getting ETFs approved by SEC through her carreer. The dollar and banking is at stake. At the same time, I think the people with power has realized that they have no good weapons to shut down bitcoin. I think they are just manipulating the price / stalling and trying to time everything in their favor. But I could be wrong (as I usually am when wearing my tinfoil hat.)

[Erdogan]

Hm, if there is going to be a weekend-end-pump, it is slow to start.

[Fatman3001]

GBTC might start trading on monday, but I would think Gemini/Coin would want to comply with the final BitLicense before they launched.

As I understand, Gemini (the Winkles' exchange) depends only on ordinary bureaucratic licenses (MSB, MTB, whatever).  If  Coinbase can function, they should be able to function too (unless they are based in NY and have to wait for the BitLicense because of that).

The COIN ETF is more complicated: it must be approved by the SEC, which is not just a bureaucratic formality.  There is no way to tell how long the SEC will take to decide, or whather it will get approved at all.  (In fact, I have read somewhere that, the longer the SEC takes to decide, the less likely is that it will be approved.)

whather  

I find it hard to believe that the heavyweight attorney that specializes in this SEC stuff can't make it happen or know the approach to making it a high probability. I'm sure she has had clients that work in key areas of the SEC and/or is on a first name basis w/ politicians that can properly lean on the needed personnel to lock this up. Furthermore, I'm sure major interest across wall street and the hedge fund scene want this type of thing up and running to put portions of their assets into it for an intense growth wing.

I'm sure Kathleen Moriarty has the skills needed, but this is a much bigger game than her getting ETFs approved by SEC through her carreer. The dollar and banking is at stake. At the same time, I think the people with power has realized that they have no good weapons to shut down bitcoin. I think they are just manipulating the price / stalling and trying to time everything in their favor. But I could be wrong (as I usually am when wearing my tinfoil hat.)

The US government can if they want to. All they need to do is arrest key people in the Bitcoin community for distributing an illegal alternative to the legal national currency and make a statement saying that the use of bitcoin is illegal. No lawmakers need to get involved, they have all the precedence they need. If they made it a priority to stop the use of bitcoin internationally they would make it part of their foreign policy and you would see one country after another fall in line. And Norway would be that annoying kid that does it very quickly and then starts pestering the other countries to do it too.

[ChartBuddy]

Coin
Explanation

[Norway]

Hm, if there is going to be a weekend-end-pump, it is slow to start.

Yes, not exactly pump action going on. I have predicted (my first ever short term prediction on this forum) that monday will be "Wall Street Monday!!!"

But if true, that would make insiders buy now. And we don't see that.

BTW, sorry for accusing you of deleting posts. I was drunk in a troll storm. One guy even faked your username. (Ergodan). I received weired, threataning PMs as well, after accusing Jorge of being hired of a troll factory.

No hard feelings?

[Norway]

GBTC might start trading on monday, but I would think Gemini/Coin would want to comply with the final BitLicense before they launched.

As I understand, Gemini (the Winkles' exchange) depends only on ordinary bureaucratic licenses (MSB, MTB, whatever).  If  Coinbase can function, they should be able to function too (unless they are based in NY and have to wait for the BitLicense because of that).

The COIN ETF is more complicated: it must be approved by the SEC, which is not just a bureaucratic formality.  There is no way to tell how long the SEC will take to decide, or whather it will get approved at all.  (In fact, I have read somewhere that, the longer the SEC takes to decide, the less likely is that it will be approved.)

whather  

I find it hard to believe that the heavyweight attorney that specializes in this SEC stuff can't make it happen or know the approach to making it a high probability. I'm sure she has had clients that work in key areas of the SEC and/or is on a first name basis w/ politicians that can properly lean on the needed personnel to lock this up. Furthermore, I'm sure major interest across wall street and the hedge fund scene want this type of thing up and running to put portions of their assets into it for an intense growth wing.

I'm sure Kathleen Moriarty has the skills needed, but this is a much bigger game than her getting ETFs approved by SEC through her carreer. The dollar and banking is at stake. At the same time, I think the people with power has realized that they have no good weapons to shut down bitcoin. I think they are just manipulating the price / stalling and trying to time everything in their favor. But I could be wrong (as I usually am when wearing my tinfoil hat.)

The US government can if they want to. All they need to do is arrest key people in the Bitcoin community for distributing an illegal alternative to the legal national currency and make a statement saying that the use of bitcoin is illegal. No lawmakers need to get involved, they have all the precedence they need. If they made it a priority to stop the use of bitcoin internationally they would make it part of their foreign policy and you would see one country after another fall in line. And Norway would be that annoying kid that does it very quickly and then starts pestering the other countries to do it too.

Ha ha, you're spot on in your last sentence!    But bitcoin is not a US thing. Gavin Anderson is expendable. The bitcoin honeybadger doesn't care. 

[empowering]

Is that a fact?  Entities that have invested in bitcoin (Fortress, Overstock, DigitalBTC, Tim Draper, The Bitcoin Foundation) seem to have regretted it, and did not want to repeat the experience.  They could have bought shares of BIT from SecondMarket, but they didn't.  They could have bought raw bitcoins (brokers would be happy to assemble large lots for them), but they didn't.  (Risk is not a concern for large investors, they can hire expertise and guard their coins as safely as COIN would do.)

Wall Street obviously does not see bitcoin as being worth more than 220 $/BTC right now...  

Is that a fact?

What are you basing this assumed regret from?  (seemed to have regretted it)

Wait a minute... do you deduce their supposed regret from the fact they did not immediately buy all of the rest of the supply of coins available? hmmmmm.... so how come a single entity has not bought up all of the gold in the world? or the oil?


..........on a separate note do you suppose that "wall street" does not see oil being worth more than its current very low valuation ? that is odd, because wall street thought it was worth almost double this price only last year.. has oil become half as useful, or half as sought after? has it really lost half of its "value" , is there a replacement synthetic on the market to replace the fossil fuel?  or could it be that something else is having an effect on price?

Same with gold, how come it is worth more this year than last, according to wall street? has gold become more useful this year than last? or could it be that something else is happening?

Take away: the market is NOT always rational (or truthful)










  

[empowering]

[...]
..........on a separate note do you suppose that "wall street" does not see oil being worth more than its current very low valuation ? that is odd, because wall street thought it was worth almost double this price only last year.. has oil become half as useful, or half as sought after? has it really lost half of its "value" , is there a replacement synthetic on the market to replace the fossil fuel?  or could it be that something else is having an effect on price?
[...]

At the risk of stating the obvious: Oil has lost half of its value because supply & demand. There supply/demand equilibrium is reflected in the current price.
Hope this helps

meh...  it is not a  "classic" supply and demand issue that has caused the drop in price.. has demand fallen by half? has availability or reserves increased by half? No, there is a supply and demand dynamic at play, but it is not the cause , or rather the cause is not a lack of demand, or a new excess of oil, rather it has got to do with our saudi cousins flooding the market , yes increasing supply, but this is not a "supply and demand" issue, rather a political one. So yes there IS something else going on other than "what wall street thinks oil is worth" at the risk of sounding obvious.

Hope that helps  

[ChartBuddy]

Coin
Explanation

[Wandererfromthenorth]

Huobi wants to break down.

[Cconvert2G36]

A significant percentage of the oil/gold/alpaca? market is speculative, based on global conditions and psychological perception. Obviously some of this by participants that will never utilize the underlying asset.

Almost sounds familiar. Aside from the fact that BTC is not generally consumed at the end of the chain. Aside from private key loss I suppose.

"Trolfi" has it right when he says that funds with high risk profile have already had an opportunity to accumulate. They have, to the tune of tens of millions of $.

The only thing GBTC/(or COIN in a very lucky 12 months) could change will be to open the door to the segment of people with a brokerage account that have scoffed or balked at any other method. Could be the difficulties of storage, taxes... in general having someone else to blame? They also see wacky chart with a spike and a relentless downtrend, hard to call the outcome of all this.

I've had 5 posts deleted in the culling, all enough off-topic and without relevant content to warrant it.

[Tzupy]

6h PSAR flipped to bearish...

[marcus_of_augustus]

GBTC might start trading on monday, but I would think Gemini/Coin would want to comply with the final BitLicense before they launched.

As I understand, Gemini (the Winkles' exchange) depends only on ordinary bureaucratic licenses (MSB, MTB, whatever).  If  Coinbase can function, they should be able to function too (unless they are based in NY and have to wait for the BitLicense because of that).

The COIN ETF is more complicated: it must be approved by the SEC, which is not just a bureaucratic formality.  There is no way to tell how long the SEC will take to decide, or whather it will get approved at all.  (In fact, I have read somewhere that, the longer the SEC takes to decide, the less likely is that it will be approved.)

whather  

I find it hard to believe that the heavyweight attorney that specializes in this SEC stuff can't make it happen or know the approach to making it a high probability. I'm sure she has had clients that work in key areas of the SEC and/or is on a first name basis w/ politicians that can properly lean on the needed personnel to lock this up. Furthermore, I'm sure major interest across wall street and the hedge fund scene want this type of thing up and running to put portions of their assets into it for an intense growth wing.

I'm sure Kathleen Moriarty has the skills needed, but this is a much bigger game than her getting ETFs approved by SEC through her carreer. The dollar and banking is at stake. At the same time, I think the people with power has realized that they have no good weapons to shut down bitcoin. I think they are just manipulating the price / stalling and trying to time everything in their favor. But I could be wrong (as I usually am when wearing my tinfoil hat.)

The US government can if they want to. All they need to do is arrest key people in the Bitcoin community for distributing an illegal alternative to the legal national currency and make a statement saying that the use of bitcoin is illegal. No lawmakers need to get involved, they have all the precedence they need. If they made it a priority to stop the use of bitcoin internationally they would make it part of their foreign policy and you would see one country after another fall in line. And Norway would be that annoying kid that does it very quickly and then starts pestering the other countries to do it too.

there is no such thing as an "illegal alternative" in the legal money sphere, in fact the FRB is on very shaky constitutional ground running their irredeemable federal reserve debt note scam considering that the only constitutional money is gold and silver coin. Bitcoin is not counterfeiting anything, it is a new form of property, you would need to destroy property law precedents to destroy bitcoin 'legally' as you suggest. Besides game theory almost dictates that the incentives are now aligned for US govt. to try and "work with" bitcoin and profit form the innovation than fight against it ... it's just the banks will be dragging their heels and toes and fingers scratching frantically.

[derpinheimer]

Huobi wants to break down.

Yeah.. I just can't see this happening. If it does manage to break down significantly, I have no idea where the coins are gonna come from on the USD exchanges.

[marcus_of_augustus]

I keep hearing about Bitcoin Investment Trust. Is this any way related to Bitcoin Savings and Trust? Will I be able to get similar services?

lol!

you mean pirateat40s bitcoin savings and trust?

On the face of it the similarities could be quite disconcerting, big pool of coins 'somewhere', pass-through broker agents, bids way above market ... lucky there is no promise of wild ROI and it is 'regulated' by wall st. i guess.

[empowering]

[...]
..........on a separate note do you suppose that "wall street" does not see oil being worth more than its current very low valuation ? that is odd, because wall street thought it was worth almost double this price only last year.. has oil become half as useful, or half as sought after? has it really lost half of its "value" , is there a replacement synthetic on the market to replace the fossil fuel?  or could it be that something else is having an effect on price?
[...]

At the risk of stating the obvious: Oil has lost half of its value because supply & demand. There supply/demand equilibrium is reflected in the current price.
Hope this helps

meh...  it is not "classic" supply and demand issue that has caused the drop in price.. has demand fallen by half? has availability or reserves increased by half? [...]

You don't quite get how supply and demand works. Halving the supply doesn't mean doubling of the price, and vice-versa.
Let me try to explain.

You're on an island with 19 of your friends, and suddenly 10 of you become vampires, who need exactly 1 pint of human blood/day to stay alive. But you're still friends, because vampires or not, you're still bitcoiners.

By strange stroke of luck, it turns out each one of you who is still human can part with a pint of blood/day. Your vampire buddies feed on you, and you have sustainable equilibrium. Being bitcoiners, the humans charge vampires for their blood, as much as possible.

Now imagine what would happen to the price if just one of your human buddies decided to withhold his blood from the market? That's right, a bidding war would ensue for the remaining 9 pints of blood, prices go through the roof, not simply "up by 10%."
Conversely, if one of the vampires died due to sunburn, blood prices would plummet - there's 10 pints available while there's only demand for 9.

If you're still having trouble grasping this, don't hesitate to ask for more help

 (please you do not need to explain supply and demand to me mate)  

ha ha , I wondered if you would pick up on the way I phrased that, of course halving the supply does not double price... I used that very loosely, and yes I could have phrased it better.... but I assumed you would understand what I meant...and I let it slide as that was basically not the point of my post (but you knew that anyway) the point being that it is not a genuine lack of demand, or a genuine increase in actual supply,  that has caused this price decrease, it is a political move by the Saudis.  But you knew that is what I was talking about, and you know what I am saying is correct... so you decide to reply with some sarcy bs and focus on semantics.

Fact is, it is not classic supply and demand, or that wall street that has decided oil is worth half, it is a political move on the part of Saudi.

Hope that helps, if not, tough shit, not playing this game with you.