Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[shmadz]

I can't see any more down the hill. Don't expect 180-190 $ coins.

I guess the ground will be $200 by max.

So you think the price of Bitcoin will never go below $200 again, ever ?

It may go sub $200, but will bounce again quickly.

Difficulty has flatlined. In my experience, the average electricity cost to mine a bitcoin is still around 150 USD.

As Satoshi said "The price of any commodity tends to gravitate toward the production cost. "

Of course, if there is another speculative bubble which drives up price, the increased profit motive would incentivize more mining capacity to be brought online, which would cause difficulty to increase, thus the production cost also gravitates toward the price.

Quite an interesting economic feedback loop.

[dannyspk]

I can't see any more down the hill. Don't expect 180-190 $ coins.

I guess the ground will be $200 by max.

So you think the price of Bitcoin will never go below $200 again, ever ?

It may go sub $200, but will bounce again quickly.

Difficulty has flatlined. In my experience, the average electricity cost to mine a bitcoin is still around 150 USD.

As Satoshi said "The price of any commodity tends to gravitate toward the production cost. "

Of course, if there is another speculative bubble which drives up price, the increased profit motive would incentivize more mining capacity to be brought online, which would cause difficulty to increase, thus the production cost also gravitates toward the price.

Quite an interesting economic feedback loop.

Simple, yet so effective.

[Cconvert2G36]

I think a limit of 2.7 tps could be considered a "bug of sorts" when you consider the aspirations outlined in Satoshi's white paper. I know it is one of my main concerns with the protocol as it stands today.

How this issue is handled is critical to those looking from the outside, with broad implications for the continued growth and survival of the network. Allowing 20 ,21, 8MB blocks doesn't mean we would have blocks of this size any time soon, it's simply headroom. And if we did... that would arguably be a great thing, more users, more tx, more fees for miners. In fact, when block subsidy dwindles... this IS the incentive for miners to keep securing blocks. Satoshi foresaw the professionalization of miners and full nodes long ago.

A terabyte drive is well less than $100 these days, and bandwidth use at 20MB blocks isn't all that bad either, considering they are securing millions of $ worth of transactions. Given technology cost curves, it will be even better at the time we could potentially see 20MB blocks. Full nodes are already not the domain of the average user. But the demands and costs aren't out of reach for the average user either.

The concerning part of this debate is the somewhat ego driven/side project incentivized nature of the discourse. The pricing via fee of block space scarcity may well be a factor in the future, but to pursue it now... before any kind of widespread usage, seems ridiculous. It's like jumping out of the trojan horse before it has even been rolled inside the curtain wall.

[ChartBuddy]

Coin
Explanation

[shmadz]

<tinfoil>

Gavin has been increasingly aggressively pursuing the block size increase ever since he started receiving paychecks from MIT. It would be interesting to trace the funding he's receiving all the way back to see who's really pulling the strings now, but it's fairly safe to say that if you are dependant on another person/group/entity for your livelihood, you are exposed to potential pressure from that person/group/entity.

The only alternative way to increase transactions without increasing block size is to enable some sort of off chain transaction method. Off chain transactions allow for channels to be set up that would allow effective mixing and increase anonymity. The smaller the block size, the larger the number of transactions that take place off chain, the more difficult it becomes to trace coins.

</tinfoil>

[adamstgBit]

I wonder exactly what this drop is about, my guess is all the 1MB block limit talk, poeple are realizing that bitcoin isnt perfect and there are problems to overcome, it scares them and they cut losses...

they invest with the notion that its the future of money, and its going to make them rich. they watch it crash. they here bitcoin is limited to 1MB per block, they investigate further and read everything in a very doom and gloom mood ( because there dreams of quick easy money are crushed ) really they are just looking for a good reason to sell and they find one, bitcoin is BROKEN.

that's my theory...

[Tony Abbot]

My kingdom for Satoshi's opinion on all of this..... I think it's time he re-appeared to give us all some hope. He's not the messiah, I get that... but his input would certainly have a huge effect on the momentum and the attitude of the revolution that he spawned.
Where art thou Satoshi?  There's good people mixed in with the greedy rabble that want to see this succeed for all the right reasons and making some bank in the process is a fitting reward for those of us who have tirelessly supported what was a futuristic and revolutionary idea, with our time, our money and our emotions.

Also, would someone please be kind enough to post an updated troll list? 

[adamstgBit]

pretty soon all the people that will be left holding coins are crazy &  hard headed investors who never sell and always buy more.

i didn't want bitcoin to bottom this way, but seems to be it's happening, how else would you explain this retardedly low price?

[shmadz]

pretty soon all the people that will be left holding coins are crazy &  hard headed investors who never sell and always buy more.

i didn't want bitcoin to bottom this way, but seems to be it's happening, how else would you explain this retardedly low price?

Ummm...

Difficulty has flatlined. In my experience, the average electricity cost to mine a bitcoin is still around 150 USD.

As Satoshi said "The price of any commodity tends to gravitate toward the production cost."

That's one explanation.

Btw, that's 150 just for electricity, that does not include rent, wages, taxes, etc... so true cost of production is likely somewhat higher.

[Mrpumperitis]

as i was saying..new ways to mine and maintain btc network   , http://www.coindesk.com/bitfury-light-bulbs-mine-bitcoin/

[ChartBuddy]

Coin
Explanation

[Mrpumperitis]

pretty soon all the people that will be left holding coins are crazy &  hard headed investors who never sell and always buy more.

i didn't want bitcoin to bottom this way, but seems to be it's happening, how else would you explain this retardedly low price?

Ummm...

Difficulty has flatlined. In my experience, the average electricity cost to mine a bitcoin is still around 150 USD.

As Satoshi said "The price of any commodity tends to gravitate toward the production cost."

That's one explanation.

Btw, that's 150 just for electricity, that does not include rent, wages, taxes, etc...

150 is cheap, is this for a dedicated miner or pc?

[adamstgBit]

[Cconvert2G36]

<tinfoil>

Gavin has been increasingly aggressively pursuing the block size increase ever since he started receiving paychecks from MIT. It would be interesting to trace the funding he's receiving all the way back to see who's really pulling the strings now, but it's fairly safe to say that if you are dependant on another person/group/entity for your livelihood, you are exposed to potential pressure from that person/group/entity.

The only alternative way to increase transactions without increasing block size is to enable some sort of off chain transaction method. Off chain transactions allow for channels to be set up that would allow effective mixing and increase anonymity. The smaller the block size, the larger the number of transactions that take place off chain, the more difficult it becomes to trace coins.

</tinfoil>

This is the kind of speculation that's not really helpful. Was it better when Gavin was being paid by Vessenes, Shrem, Karp, etc etc? I don't think he has handled it perfectly, but he certainly isn't being shy about his vision, the steps to achieve it, and the reasoning behind it.

2.7 tx per second is an artificial and harmful bottleneck... if not today, in the near future.

If anonymity/convenience side chains are desired and functional, they will happen... with either 1MB or 20MB blocks. We shouldn't manufacture compromised capability just to nurture them.

I think it's not surprising and actually healthy the price is reacting to this rancorous debate, and it's just getting started...

This was designed to be a self directing network motivated by the mutual self interest of many disparate parties, let's see if it works.

[shmadz]

Btw, that's 150 just for electricity, that does not include rent, wages, taxes, etc...

150 is cheap, is this for a dedicated miner or pc?

PC?   I don't even think a pool would recognize or accept your hashrate. It wouldn't even register.

my guesstimate is based on my personal experience with knc Neptune (around 3 TH/s at approx 2000 watts) and 0.10 $/kWh

[Cconvert2G36]

Btw, that's 150 just for electricity, that does not include rent, wages, taxes, etc...

150 is cheap, is this for a dedicated miner or pc?

PC?   I don't even think a pool would recognize or accept your hashrate. It wouldn't even register.

my guesstimate is based on my personal experience with knc Neptune (around 3 TH/s at approx 2000 watts) and 0.10 $/kWh

Which should generate about 1 btc per month. For paid off hardware, you're looking at about $2.23 in profit per day at current prices, and you need to get rid of 2000 watts of heat too.

[noobtrader]

Btw, that's 150 just for electricity, that does not include rent, wages, taxes, etc...

150 is cheap, is this for a dedicated miner or pc?

PC?   I don't even think a pool would recognize or accept your hashrate. It wouldn't even register.

my guesstimate is based on my personal experience with knc Neptune (around 3 TH/s at approx 2000 watts) and 0.10 $/kWh

Which should generate about 1 btc per month. For paid off hardware, you're looking at about $2.23 in profit per day at current prices, and you need to get rid of 2000 watts of heat too.

im all in if the miner was also water heater, so i can cut cost of my electricity for heating water or get free bitcoin... 

[Mrpumperitis]

Btw, that's 150 just for electricity, that does not include rent, wages, taxes, etc...

150 is cheap, is this for a dedicated miner or pc?

PC?   I don't even think a pool would recognize or accept your hashrate. It wouldn't even register.

my guesstimate is based on my personal experience with knc Neptune (around 3 TH/s at approx 2000 watts) and 0.10 $/kWh

Which should generate about 1 btc per month. For paid off hardware, you're looking at about $2.23 in profit per day at current prices, and you need to get rid of 2000 watts of heat too.

when you say per month, usually the equipment isused by the company makers for stress test lol the shipped only last 2-3months by time it gets to you and you need to spend another $3k+ for a new rig.

im all in if the miner was also water heater, so i can cut cost of my electricity for heating water or get free bitcoin...  
[/quote]

my old mining pc, had 2 mini radiators,lol used them to heat my room and got a few btc per week.

[ChartBuddy]

Coin
Explanation

[Mrpumperitis]

btc the true survivor,lol....https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZTidn2dBYbY   ( True Survivor (from Kung Fury)