Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[galdur]

MILES OF AISLES: At the Defense Logistics Agency's giant storage facility outside Harrisburg, Pennsylvania, lack of reliable information on what's there makes it hard to throw out excess inventory. REUTERS/TIM SHAFFER

[Richy_T]

20 billion ? Lol it is far more than that, where did you get that figure?

The first thing that comes to mine is when Donald Rumsfield had that press conference the day before 9 / 11 saying that the Pentagon has 'lost track' of 2.3 trillion dollars.

Or the transport planes full of cash that mysteriously went missing in Iraq.

20 billion of loses isn't much at all in the scheme of how much has been lost over the last few administrations in the U. S of A .

TBH, I just googled "dollars lost iraq" and picked a number somewhere in the middle.

[Richy_T]

Plus BTC also handy in provisioning international terror clubhouses with recreational materials, such as bath salts and premium child pornography.

Pls not to forget the Alpaca socks.

[galdur]

AT SEA: Since 2000, the Navy has spent more than $1 billion to upgrade its record-keeping, but it still lacks the ability to account for ships, submarines and other physical assets. REUTERS/HO NEW

[galdur]

TICK-TOCK: Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel has said the Pentagon’s inability to be audited “is unacceptable” and is overseeing efforts to meet audit-readiness deadlines. REUTERS/YURI GRIPAS

This is from 2013 and he was soon out the door. Obama has gone through how many Sec of Def again?

[jbreher]

[galdur]

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

Give the man a cigar.

It´s even the exact same freakin expression. Priceless.

[adamstgBit]

if i take 3 loans, max out credit cards, and all my cash on hand and buy bitcoins then sell in 8years I think i'd make out like a fucking bandit 

[ChartBuddy]

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[wutizurkwest]

TA is useless whether the market is rigged or not. It's by chance that your TA turns out correct. It's the fuckin astrology of markets

TA is indicator because when ppl and their action are predictable, therefore any market movement can be used to predict immediate movement. plus if everyone think its going up, it usually end up  really going up

[noobtrader]

if i take 3 loans, max out credit cards, and all my cash on hand and buy bitcoins then sell in 8years I think i'd make out like a fucking bandit 

you dont need bitcoin to look like a bandit LOL 

[ChartBuddy]

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[ChartBuddy]

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[ChartBuddy]

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[cbeast]

if i take 3 loans, max out credit cards, and all my cash on hand and buy bitcoins then sell in 8years I think i'd make out like a fucking bandit 

Hey, it would take you that long to get through college anyway, so why not just retire now? 

[L0uis]

https://twitter.com/bitmymoney/status/666533682321182720

[oda.krell]

The extreme opposite viewpoint is that there is demand for 25BTC/block * 6block/hr * 24hr/day * $320/BTC = $1,152,000 worth of BTC per day. This $1.15 M demand may stay the same across the halving. This would indicate an equal value. In such a case, the new equilibrium price would be $640.

Granted, the truth will likely be somewhere in between.

Of course, I am of the opinion that BTC is drastically undervalued today. But that's just, like, my opinion, man.

No way is the price going to double at the point of the having though. It will climb in the leadup to the halving which will result in more hashing power being brought online which will cause the difficulty to increase. Now, it's possible that the price will climb enough, faster than hashing power is added that there will be enough profit to not encourage miners to switch off and there may be some other factors as well but there's nothing solid.

also what most people don't know is, the current price always contains ALL information currently available. This includes the next reward halving, the current possibility of mass adoption, the current possibility of current total failure etc. etc.


The price does not reflect the current price of something it is always reflects the speculation of future prices which drives it. This is the same for all Forex / Commodities / Stock-Markets...

Halving is just a reason to be a reason to pump&dump BTC just like it happened everytime at the altcoin market / btc / ltc halving in the past.

Oh, so you believe markets in general are efficient - 'efficient' in the sense of an empirical statement, not merely as a simplifying assumption, like, say, independence assumptions in statistics. And, in particular, you believe that our little market here is efficient.

That's cute, I guess.

[Dotto]

If the market is rigged TA is useless, except perhaps for the market riggers, who can paint whatever pretty picture they want with the price moves, including dragging TA-'sensitive' bots up, down and sideways, like bulls being led by a nose-ring ... in which case it is more rigged than you imagine.

That's exactly as rigged as I imagine.

ITS NOT RIGGED!

bitcoin is meant to have manipulators sometimes there are more active manipulators then there are fish, who cares. bitcoin has value because its fun to hit buy/sell with a small 50K, program bots to keep the candle up or down for you.. anything goes, it doesn't make sense to regulate market trader activity; is it illegal to wast 1million dollars to trigger stop loses and sell into them?

fair game to me...

just don't play with stop loss orders!

i did that on the way down i tried to play with stop loss orders, i would of done much better by placing simple bid

Fair play as long as you don´t have access to the inner info of the exchanges... or we can implement some kind of distributed exchanges at core level... in the meanwhile, centralized exchanges= serious rigged possibility

[oda.krell]

TA is useless whether the market is rigged or not. It's by chance that your TA turns out correct. It's the fuckin astrology of markets

Guess it's time again to dig out my canned link collection, in response to the claim "TA is just cargo cult / Didn't you know about {strong, weak} efficiency?"...

# Case studies
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0957417410002149
http://journals.cambridge.org/action/displayAbstract?fromPage=online&aid=9204370&fileId=S0022109013000586
http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=685361

# Theoretical explanations of TA (and its underlying informal or semi-formal notions)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378426608002951
http://rfs.oxfordjournals.org/content/2/4/527.abstract
https://www.cis.upenn.edu/~mkearns/teaching/cis700/lo.pdf <-- Brilliant article. Central claim: Finance is algebraic and numerical math (plus computation), TA is visual, geometric (and largely intuitionistic "algorithms"), hence the gap between the two fields, despite large possible overlap.

# Meta studies
http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=603481
http://www.nber.org/papers/w20592 <-- One of my favorites. They're rather critical of TA, and propose substantially higher statistical thresholds, but also list a few technical factors that seem to be established beyond doubt.

[ChartBuddy]

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