Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[BitUsher]

Some more examples of some of the long peeling chains occurring which have a high probability of being spam .. visually represented-



Quite beautiful actually...



Look at how they differ from other tx's visually represented in the background.

[bargainbin]

...
I just thought he might know wtf is going on.

Everyone seems to automatically assume it's a spam attack without any proper data.

His definition of "spam" is, basically, "things we I don't want to happen."
Starting with that, what is happening *is* spam. Nothing more to be said.
A more interesting (and productive) approach would be "let's define spam, describe it, completely and exclusively, in code, so that a dumb machine can know if X is spam or not. Then we wouldn't need to keep having these pointless arguments."

P.S. And here we go again: "high probability of being X, tho X is undefined, so I'll show you pictures and try to *convince* you that the data pattern is unusual." Probably works great on Reddit, but good luck turning it into code.

[BitUsher]

Everyone seems to automatically assume it's a spam attack without any proper data.

Definitions can be conceptual , relative and ambiguous and sometimes necessarily need to be regardless of how uncomfortable that makes us feel.

There necessarily cannot be an exact definition of spam and there certainly is much subjective interpretation into what constitutes as spam. Sending tx back and forth between addresses with no purpose other than disrupt normal txs would fit into that category. Identifying this behavior can be more difficult but not impossible as you can make a probabilistic assessment. Many would agree that the example above should be considered spam , while others would claim that all tx that are accepted by miners are valid and we should not ostracize or filter any types of tx's . While I empathize and understand the argument, I would posit the true cost of tx is 5-10USD now and the network is heavily subsidizing all the security costs so if someone wanted to burden the network with unnecessary tx's that merely sends btc back and forth I would consider it fine if they were taking on that cost directly instead of burdening everyone else with these costs.

[Fatman3001]

...
I just thought he might know wtf is going on.

Everyone seems to automatically assume it's a spam attack without any proper data.

His definition of "spam" is, basically, "things we I don't want to happen."
Starting with that, what is happening *is* spam. Nothing more to be said.
A more interesting (and productive) approach would be "let's define spam, describe it, completely and exclusively, in code, so that a dumb machine can know if X is spam or not. Then we wouldn't need to keep having these pointless arguments."

Whatever is happening is happening now. So if we got some proper data to explain this massive surge, and some reliable interpretations of that data, then we could have a discussion on whether its a malicious attack or mainly a surge in genuine txs. If this blows over I guess we may never know, because the Bitcoin community is too polarized atm. But if this is real, if this doesn't blow over, both sides will need to look at the data and move on from there.

[BitUsher]

Whatever is happening is happening now. So if we got some proper data to explain this massive surge, and some reliable interpretations of that data, then we could have a discussion on whether its a malicious attack or mainly a surge in genuine txs. If this blows over I guess we may never know, because the Bitcoin community is too polarized atm. But if this is real, if this doesn't blow over, both sides will need to look at the data and move on from there.

I assume you are alluding to the fact that the polarized environment is creating a perceptual bias that may taint our analysis of the data. This is a fair concern and one we should protect against. Another indication that this is indeed a spam attack rather than just an inevitable rise in txs is if it is sustained past a week. At 5-10k usd a day one would assume the attacker would eventually start losing motivation. Either way , the testing I have done thus far has been helpful in understanding some weaknesses and improvements that need to be made. Hopefully we can all learn and grow from this.

[bargainbin]

Everyone seems to automatically assume it's a spam attack without any proper data.

Definitions can be conceptual , relative and ambiguous and sometimes necessarily need to be regardless of how uncomfortable that makes us feel.

Those those are the domain of humanities students, mystics, musicians, artists, and poets. They have no place in an algorythmically-controlled currency, because
can not be turned into computer code, a rule set.

If definition is, indeed, impossible for us to arrive at [due to being impossible, or due to our own shortcomings], we can not address it in a rational, logical debate [beyond stating that it is undefined and thus lies outside the scope of logic].
In which case, we should stop what we're doing and goo play vidya.

Or the definition may be simply difficult to formalize, in which case we're lazy fucks and should get good.
The rest is sophistry & bullshit.

TL;DR: if we can not strictly define what we're talking about, we we should lrn2lute & become minstrels/lovers.

[stoat]

I politely suggest diversifying in to ETH

[ChartBuddy]

Coin



Explanation

[BldSwtTrs]

"We don't need an inefficient form of paypal". You have absolutely no clue what we need or not. I have no clue neither, but at least I don't a the pretense of knowledge.

Only the market knows.

And you, bunch of bolcheviks, you think you are smater than the market, and that's why you will fail and will end up working on an altcoin that nobody care about.

LoL... Its not about being smarter than the market. If the market prefers an inefficient and censorable version of paypal than so be it. That doesn't interest me, they are free to carry on with this decision and all the benefits and consequences that come with it.

Bitcoin with blocksize >1Mb is not an inefficient and censorable version of Paypal. Bitcoin with blocksize >1Mb blocksize is exactly the same as Bitcoin with <1Mb blocksize over the last 7 years. So if you don't think Bitcoin with a limit above the natural demand for blockspace is useful, then you shouldn't have been involved with Bitcoin because "blocksize limit>>>demand" is the state of Bitcoin since its inception.

On the contrary,"blocksize limit < the demand" is something entirely new, and it's something even less useful than Paypal.

Are you aware that clearinghouses and settlement networks already exist?

You want to make Bitcoin an inefficient clearinghouse. Lol.

You give to small blockists one the most incredible invention of mankind and they end up with an inefficient clearing house. That so dumb I can't even believe it's happening in the real world.

[bargainbin]

...
I just thought he might know wtf is going on.

Everyone seems to automatically assume it's a spam attack without any proper data.

His definition of "spam" is, basically, "things we I don't want to happen."
Starting with that, what is happening *is* spam. Nothing more to be said.
A more interesting (and productive) approach would be "let's define spam, describe it, completely and exclusively, in code, so that a dumb machine can know if X is spam or not. Then we wouldn't need to keep having these pointless arguments."

Whatever is happening is happening now. So if we got some proper data to explain this massive surge, and some reliable interpretations of that data, then we could have a discussion on whether its a malicious attack or mainly a surge in genuine txs. If this blows over I guess we may never know, because the Bitcoin community is too polarized atm. But if this is real, if this doesn't blow over, both sides will need to look at the data and move on from there.

I don't care about the possible motivations behind what is happening, mainly because I can not possibly hope to create a [human] psych-analyzing ruleset for Bitcoin. For me, it's sufficient that a state, a condition *is possible*. It's possible, we don't like it -- how to make it so we either like it, don't care, or make it go away? Does what_is_happening point to our system being fundamentally flawed? Can it be fixed? At what cost? What are the possible repercussions?

See what I mean, sort of?

P.S. Of course, this is all happening in real time, and girls mainstream press are watching, so the lel factor is not lost on me

[BldSwtTrs]

Blockstream: "Bitcoin could change the world but we think it's better to make a clearinghouse instead. Everything is fine with the monetary and banking system, what we really need is a fucking clearinghouse guys."

[Fatman3001]

...
I just thought he might know wtf is going on.

Everyone seems to automatically assume it's a spam attack without any proper data.

His definition of "spam" is, basically, "things we I don't want to happen."
Starting with that, what is happening *is* spam. Nothing more to be said.
A more interesting (and productive) approach would be "let's define spam, describe it, completely and exclusively, in code, so that a dumb machine can know if X is spam or not. Then we wouldn't need to keep having these pointless arguments."

Whatever is happening is happening now. So if we got some proper data to explain this massive surge, and some reliable interpretations of that data, then we could have a discussion on whether its a malicious attack or mainly a surge in genuine txs. If this blows over I guess we may never know, because the Bitcoin community is too polarized atm. But if this is real, if this doesn't blow over, both sides will need to look at the data and move on from there.

I don't care about the possible motivations behind what is happening, mainly because I can not possibly hope to create a [human] psych-analyzing ruleset for Bitcoin. For me, it's sufficient that a state, a condition *is possible*. It's possible, we don't like it -- how to make it so we either like it, don't care, or make it go away? Does what_is_happening point to our system being fundamentally flawed? Can it be fixed? At what cost? What are the possible repercussions?

See what I mean, sort of?

P.S. Of course, this is all happening in real time, and girls mainstream press are watching, so the lel factor is not lost on me

I sort of agree, but I'm not the one who needs to be convinced. Nor are you.

[tomothy]

I politely suggest diversifying in to ETH

Or DOG

Why not LTC, PPC, or NMC? Ltc especially. I'm already knee deep in losses; I already bought Peter Todd & Drak's VIA. They promised it would be revolutionary~!
Was this the plan all along? BTC breaks due to transaction backlog, forces adoption of alts. BTC co-opted by someone magical. Banks/Govt?
Seems like things are playing out exactly as they wanted?

I figure we go sideways another 3-4 months and then magically things get fixed and we have halving pump.

However, this stuff is disconcerting: 
https://www.reddit.com/r/btc/comments/48fw9u/f2pool_operator_was_pressured_into_accepting_hk/
[–]macbook-airBitcoin Miner - F2Pool 75 points 4 hours ago
In HK, Alex asked me to “respect” his time by agree the consensus asap. Also someone else told me he had bought long position just before the roundtable, if we did not agree, he would lose huge financially. If it was not these two, I would probably have escaped away that night.

This is why the conspiracy theories start to seem less theory and more just shady business as usual crap. I.e., scammers gonna scam.
I'm tempted to liquidate 75% of my remaining btc, throw it into LTC for stability/functionality and just wait, maybe buy some of this ethereum crap (seems way overbought imho, but it keeps having slight ups and downs enough to profit). Maybe a different percentage of the above. Quite discouraged by the big block vs small block fight. (Disclosure, I didn't buy Via. Well, I did, just not recently. Lost so much )
Is this what they call the despair stage?

[8up]

once the exodus starts, there is no way back...

[ChartBuddy]

Coin



Explanation

[tomothy]

once the exodus starts, there is no way back...

So, just keep calm and hodl on? I've transferred to my 'own' wallet finally. Bury it in the backyard and just check out until next year? I'm torn between wanting liquidity to increase holdings if there is doom and not wanting to sell due to possible moon. Back to waiting for Godot I guess, right? Not like i can get btc to an exchange in a timely fashion anyway, there should be some market action one way or another soon'.

[bargainbin]

...
I just thought he might know wtf is going on.

Everyone seems to automatically assume it's a spam attack without any proper data.

His definition of "spam" is, basically, "things we I don't want to happen."
Starting with that, what is happening *is* spam. Nothing more to be said.
A more interesting (and productive) approach would be "let's define spam, describe it, completely and exclusively, in code, so that a dumb machine can know if X is spam or not. Then we wouldn't need to keep having these pointless arguments."

Whatever is happening is happening now. So if we got some proper data to explain this massive surge, and some reliable interpretations of that data, then we could have a discussion on whether its a malicious attack or mainly a surge in genuine txs. If this blows over I guess we may never know, because the Bitcoin community is too polarized atm. But if this is real, if this doesn't blow over, both sides will need to look at the data and move on from there.

I don't care about the possible motivations behind what is happening, mainly because I can not possibly hope to create a [human] psych-analyzing ruleset for Bitcoin. For me, it's sufficient that a state, a condition *is possible*. It's possible, we don't like it -- how to make it so we either like it, don't care, or make it go away? Does what_is_happening point to our system being fundamentally flawed? Can it be fixed? At what cost? What are the possible repercussions?

See what I mean, sort of?

P.S. Of course, this is all happening in real time, and girls mainstream press are watching, so the lel factor is not lost on me

I sort of agree, but I'm not the one who needs to be convinced. Nor are you.

Right. I've given up quite a while ago. Now read stuff like this & don't even flinch. Don't even care if true or false -- just the fact that such a thing is possible is all I need to know

[jbreher]

from the grasp of complexity I was able to see, it seems impossible for me to have a clear point of view of the situation as we're still lacking data.

Agreed. For better or worse, the experiment is now being run. I would have rather run the other experiment (increasing the block size), but we are where we are - at least for the time being.

Yeah small blocks have problems, but what do you want? Bigger and bigger blocks? You do realize that in order to scale the Visa transactions we would need 800GB blocks... Seems complicated to me...

Nirvana fallacy. As long as the max block size stays suitably larger than the time-averaged demand, we don't need to be at Visa levels. How long until we do need to be at Visa levels? We don't know. Will Moore's Postulate get us there in time? We don't know. But even many smallblockers believe we can do larger right now  - as just one example, Adam Back publicly proclaimed '4MB no problem' a day or two ago.

Another part of the experiment underway (it is not separable) is the postulate that consistently full blocks will forestall adoption of Bitcoin, driving away potential users. I think this is likely to be proven true, but admittedly, I don't know.

[JayJuanGee]

Can't wait until small block retards are proved to be irresponsible idiots by empirical data points.

We should make a list of them, so in the future we will never forget who they were and humiliate them forever.

There's no such thing as a small block retard.

People have ideas and inclinations based on information that they have, and there's a lot of misinformation out there regarding what's even going on with the block chain; how much is spam, whether an increase is currently justified and/or wether segregated witness will take care of some if not all of this spamming blockage to the extent blockage exists and if not what would be better additional solutions going forward once segregated witness is in place.

Yeah people have different ideas and most of them are dumb ideas.

That's why it's important to relie on the empirical facts to judge who are right and who are the fucking irresponsible retards. It's darwinian selection. It's a process way more efficient than pointless debating.

So now we are going to see that full block are not good at all and see who were the dangerous retards who thought full blocks were somehow cool.

It's like the bolcheviks. They have ideas and they thought they were right. They talked badly of people who disagree with them. Then the testing of their ideas prove that they were huge retards and that they had their head full shit. Gmaxwell and Adam Back are the Lenin of their time. The sooner the market route around them, the better.

Your attempts at competition and survival of the fittest in this matter makes you sound like the retard, and you seem to want some kind of apocalypse, and in essence you are seeming to get really emotional about outcomes and hoping to get your way while hopefully and fantastically proving others wrong. In other words, sounds like you have dipshit thoughts.

[BldSwtTrs]

Small blockists you are making ETH holders rich. You are such huge loosers.