Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[bargainbin]

^You're just making it seem intuitively wronger. Wait, dumbening isn't even a word...

>it should be largely negated by a company's incentive to plan for the future
But you got sort of a prisoner's dilemma thing happening -- let's say 3 major megamines, and it only makes sense to scale down if *others don't*. You don't know what others will do, so?
*it might be reasonable to keep mining at a loss, hoping that competition runs out of $$$ faster than you, it might make sense to make backroom deals & cooperate, so many different possibilities...

[Cconvert2G36]

^You're just making it seem intuitively wronger. Wait, dumbening isn't even a word...

>it should be largely negated by a company's incentive to plan for the future
But you got sort of a prisoner's dilemma thing happening -- let's say 3 major megamines, and it only makes sense to scale down if *others don't*. You don't know what others will do, so?
*it might be reasonable to keep mining at a loss, hoping that competition runs out of $$$ faster than you, it might make sense to make backroom deals & cooperate, so many different possibilities...

Replace megamine with any other business. You just try your best to make rational decisions that net you the most profit over the longest amount of time. If rational economic behavior is innately irrational, we're all doomed. Hardcore collusion could get a keccak response, all variables in this mess of an equation.

Look, I know I'm never going to convince you this bird'll fly. I'm having a hard enough time convincing myself these days... 

[bargainbin]

>Replace megamine with any other business.

Any other business suddenly losing half of its revenue?
Like the auto industry suddenly being able to sell only half as many cars? (hoping against hope that the cars it does sell will somehow double in price)?
Not finding anything readily analogous & rekindling hope at the same time

[jbreher]

Of course, the design (hope) is that the doubled scarcity (halved rate of new production) will cause price to ~2x. But we know that the market will front-run this expectation to some extent, and maybe lag a bit as well. But for miners, the instant is the instant - revenues suddenly halved.

By no means do I think it is fatal - we've been through it before. I'm just puzzled why it is not more nearly continuous. Same for the difficulty adjustment.

[jbreher]

In other news: today, Bitcoin is down to 82.5% market share of the crypto space. Lower than any other data point in my recent memory.

[Terwa]

Could be ether a problem?
Now a lot of $ go to eht :/

[tommorisonwebdesign]

The price drop means nothing. Bitcoin is the way of the future. More people know about it. It will be accepted at more merchants. More and more people are finding out about it. And the price will increase again for sure.

[ChartBuddy]

Coin



Explanation

[ImI]

The issue is that Core is not responding to requests to officially accept the HK-agreement. As long as they play this silly "Lets wait and see"-game the price will suffer.

Its unbelievable how irresponsible some of core are acting! If BTC goes 200$ they will be quick to adopt the agreement i guess.

[Cconvert2G36]

>Replace megamine with any other business.

Any other business suddenly losing half of its revenue?
Like the auto industry suddenly being able to sell only half as many cars? (hoping against hope that the cars it does sell will somehow double in price)?
Not finding anything readily analogous & rekindling hope at the same time

The block reward subsidy was not the intended revenue stream for mining in the long term. A rare metal with the easiest to find surface quantities already found may be loosely analogous. But the analogy breaks down when...

The real product the miners end up producing and relying on for revenue is blockspace. Inflation subsidy is just supposed to pay the bills while we scale up the number of fees paid per transactions.   

[JayJuanGee]

Of course, the design (hope) is that the doubled scarcity (halved rate of new production) will cause price to ~2x. But we know that the market will front-run this expectation to some extent, and maybe lag a bit as well. But for miners, the instant is the instant - revenues suddenly halved.

By no means do I think it is fatal - we've been through it before. I'm just puzzled why it is not more nearly continuous. Same for the difficulty adjustment.

I'm sure that there are a lot of decent and all over the place theories regarding these kinds of miner market behaviors. 

Surely miners are speculating in a large number of ways, and surely there are a whole hell-a-va lot of individuals making decision based on knowns, unknowns and speculations about knowns and unknowns.

As market theories describe, there a some aspects of the halving that are already priced in, yet there is some aspects of the halving (like human behaviors and miner behaviors) that no one really knows until the halving actually takes place (and that includes the various responses and behaviors of other rational and irrational actors). 

Furthermore, some technical and/or otherwise insightful people are better able to foresee the impact and the various applications of seg wit and even how seg wit may cause (or forestall) developments and/or blocksize limit increases.  Some of these individual actors are going to plan for the halving really well (maybe partly lucky), and some of them are going to plan for the halving less well (maybe get distracted by some alt coin developments (such as ether) or bitcoin political debates (such as the blocksize debate or governance)), and in the end, the changes in mining and hash rate are both gradual and sudden.. because some kinds of adjustments take longer to gear up for and other changes can be implemented more quickly.

In the end, it is not completely a fog - but in essence, like I already suggested, some predictions are going to be more solid than other predictions regarding how the various market moving actors will behave.

[JayJuanGee]

In other news: today, Bitcoin is down to 82.5% market share of the crypto space. Lower than any other data point in my recent memory.

Wasn't there a time in early 2015 in which Ripple had nearly 25% of the market cap of bitcoin?  Seems like it.

[jbreher]

In other news: today, Bitcoin is down to 82.5% market share of the crypto space. Lower than any other data point in my recent memory.

Wasn't there a time in early 2015 in which Ripple had nearly 25% of the market cap of bitcoin?  Seems like it.

There was a time when Ripple's market cap exceeded that of Bitcoin.

No, really.

Stop laughing - you're gonna feel foolish when you check the facts.

[MinermanNC]

what's going on with price slippage... or so it seems 

[JayJuanGee]

In other news: today, Bitcoin is down to 82.5% market share of the crypto space. Lower than any other data point in my recent memory.

Wasn't there a time in early 2015 in which Ripple had nearly 25% of the market cap of bitcoin?  Seems like it.

There was a time when Ripple's market cap exceeded that of Bitcoin.

No, really.

Stop laughing - you're gonna feel foolish when you check the facts.

Hello?   That's not what I said.

O.k... I may be a little bit off on my facts, but if you look at coinmarket cap, and you compare bitcoin's market cap on December 22, 2014 of $4.4 Billion to Ripple's market cap of $754 million, I calculate that to be about 17%, yet I did not research all of the market caps of all of the other alts on that same date, but from that quickie research, it appears that your assertion that 82.5% market share for bitcoin as the lowest ever, is not accurate.   By the way, it appears that on December 22, 2014 litecoin had a market cap of about $100 million and Doge had about $18 million...

Now, I am tired of research, yet I think I made my point.   

[bargainbin]

>Replace megamine with any other business.

Any other business suddenly losing half of its revenue?
Like the auto industry suddenly being able to sell only half as many cars? (hoping against hope that the cars it does sell will somehow double in price)?
Not finding anything readily analogous & rekindling hope at the same time

The block reward subsidy was not the intended revenue stream for mining in the long term. A rare metal with the easiest to find surface quantities already found may be loosely analogous. But the analogy breaks down when...

The real product the miners end up producing and relying on for revenue is blockspace. Inflation subsidy is just supposed to pay the bills while we scale up the number of fees paid per transactions.  

I'm with you on block reward being a temporary measure, to be phased out as the fees market develops. We're disagreeing only about *how* the miners should be weened off the block reward -- via a halvening, or gradually.
As we stand, fees are a tiny percentage of miners' revenue -- they'd have to be brought up to something like $3 per tx to make up for the loss of subsidies (or number of users/tx must go up, what, a hundredfold?). My math might be shit, going by ~3tps * 60sec * ~10mins = 25btc reward now; tx = 25/1800 * 425 = $5.90; Cutting reward in half = +$3 per tx, to keep things even (ignoring hashrate drop, ignoring price fluctuation, ignoring everything). I could be totally wrong.

If fees were $1.50 now, I could see people paying $3, but from $.03 to $3 is a bit of a stretch.
Doubling blocksize limit only gets us to $1.50/tx, still no help, so we're looking at something happening with the miners. I think

Anyhow, only questioning the rationality of abrupt halving, not viability of fee-subsidized mining.

[BayAreaCoins]

Opened a few shorts and off to bed.

Might be a shit show if there is a dip going into Monday.

Should have a nice buy back in the low $430s. (OKCoin futures)

Nom Nom Nom

[jbreher]

In other news: today, Bitcoin is down to 82.5% market share of the crypto space. Lower than any other data point in my recent memory.

Wasn't there a time in early 2015 in which Ripple had nearly 25% of the market cap of bitcoin?  Seems like it.

There was a time when Ripple's market cap exceeded that of Bitcoin.

No, really.

Stop laughing - you're gonna feel foolish when you check the facts.

Hello?   That's not what I said.

O.k... I may be a little bit off on my facts, but if you look at coinmarket cap, and you compare bitcoin's market cap on December 22, 2014 of $4.4 Billion to Ripple's market cap of $754 million, I calculate that to be about 17%, yet I did not research all of the market caps of all of the other alts on that same date, but from that quickie research, it appears that your assertion that 82.5% market share for bitcoin as the lowest ever, is not accurate.   By the way, it appears that on December 22, 2014 litecoin had a market cap of about $100 million and Doge had about $18 million...

Now, I am tired of research, yet I think I made my point.   

Two things:

1) I didn't say lowest ever. I said lowest in recent memory.

2) Right - you said within 25% or so, and you found a data point to confirm it. I was not arguing against your point, just pointing out that it was way wider thatn your 25% - indeed, at one time Ripple was bigger than Bitcoin. The superfluous tag sentences were merely to drive home how surprised I feel most might be to leran this.

Bonus 3) Well, duh. If Ripple alone used to be bigger than Bitcoin, it is obvious that Bitcoin's market share has indeed been lower than 82.5%. But 82.5% is a recent low.

This is a metric I check once a week or so. When I see any new trend, I go looking for a reason. I think the reason this time is a foolish FOMO into ETH. I think many are likely to end up hurt when this pops. But some other alts are also rising. Is this a trend with legs? I hope not. If Bitcoin dies, the entire crypto field will be set back by a decade or more. But I'm keeping my eye on it.

[jbreher]

My math might be shit, ...

I'm not checking your math. What you're missing is appreciation in price.

[xxxxxzzzzz]

what's going on with price slippage... or so it seems 

been getting repeatedly spiked down and worked lower last 3 days now despite some seemingly heavy resistance ... basically it didn't breach $450 or 3000cny on the upswing from the looks of it and so down it goes ... now about $20 off from the $445 it hit 3 days ago ... pretty brutal and demoralizing but i assume that's the idea it always is ... we'll see if it goes up from 425 , 420 , or somewhere between there and 400 ...